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DOI 10.1007/s10552-010-9665-8
ORIGINAL PAPER
Received: 5 August 2010 / Accepted: 7 October 2010 / Published online: 28 October 2010
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Introduction
S. Gallus F. Turati A. Tavani C. La Vecchia
Dipartimento di Epidemiologia, Istituto di Ricerche
Farmacologiche Mario Negri, 20156 Milan, Italy
F. Turati C. La Vecchia
Dipartimento di Medicina del Lavoro Clinica del Lavoro Luigi
Devoto, Sezione di Statistica Medica e Biometria Giulio
A. Maccacaro, Universita` degli Studi di Milano,
20133 Milan, Italy
J. Polesel R. Talamini
Unita` di Epidemiologia e Biostatistica, IRCCS Centro
di Riferimento Oncologico, 33081 Aviano, PN, Italy
S. Franceschi
Infections and Cancer Epidemiology Group, International
Agency for Cancer Research, 69372 Lyon CEDEX 08, France
S. Gallus (&)
Unit of Epidemiology for Clinical Research, Department
of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche
Mario Negri, Via La Masa, 19, 20156 Milan, Italy
e-mail: silvano.gallus@marionegri.it
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Results
In the present dataset, compared with non-drinkers, the
multivariate OR for carbonated drink consumers was 1.02
(95% CI 0.721.44) (Table 1); it was 1.09 (95% CI
0.721.65) for \ 1 drink/day (59 cases and 118 controls)
and 0.89 (95% CI 0.531.50) for C1 drink/day (30 cases
and 77 controls). These estimates did not materially change
after further allowance for physical activity. The OR for
drinkers vs. non-drinkers was 0.60 among subjects aged
\60 years and 1.35 among those aged C60 years, with a
significant heterogeneity between strata (p = 0.008). No
significant heterogeneity was found among strata of sex,
BMI, and energy intake. Excluding diabetics, the OR for
carbonated drink consumers was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.641.35).
From the MEDLINE search, we identified 4 other case
control studies [8, 16, 17, 25], for a total of 1,919 cases
including those from the present study, and 6 cohort studies
[7, 11, 15, 18, 19, 26], for a total of 2,367 cases. Study
characteristics, including details on soft drink definition
and categories of exposure, are reported in Table 2. Using
a meta-analytic approach, the pooled RRs for soft drink
consumers vs. non-drinkers were 0.97 (95% CI 0.811.16,
p for heterogeneity = 0.209) for casecontrol, 1.05 (95%
CI 0.941.17, p for heterogeneity = 0.173) for cohort, and
1.02 (95% CI 0.931.12, p for heterogeneity = 0.143) for
Discussion
Our casecontrol study shows a lack of association
between carbonated drink consumption and pancreatic
cancer risk, even for regular drinkers. These results were
consistent in strata of sex, BMI, and total energy intake.
Younger subjects, more likely those with higher consumption, showed a lower relative risk.
Most carbonated drinks provide considerable amounts
(up to 3040 g per drink) of sugars and some of them
caffeine. Thus, the present results support the lack of
association of pancreatic cancer risk with sugar and
caffeine intake.
With reference to potential selection bias, we identified
cases and controls in the major teaching and general hospitals and excluded from the comparison group any patient
Table 1 Distribution of 326 pancreatic cancer cases and 652 controls, and corresponding odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI),
according to carbonated drink consumption, overall and in strata of selected covariates
Carbonated drink consumptiona
p for heterogeneity
No
Yes
Cases/controls
Cases/controls
OR (95% CI)b
236/457
89/195
1.02 (0.721.44)
Males
123/247
51/101
0.85 (0.501.46)
Females
113/210
38/94
1.14 (0.711.84)
\60 years
88/153
33/89
0.60 (0.331.08)
C60 years
148/304
56/106
1.35 (0.862.12)
\25 kg/m2
108/199
32/68
1.02 (0.561.84)
C25 kg/m2
128/258
57/127
0.99 (0.621.56)
\2245.91 kcal/day
110/251
26/75
0.93 (0.511.68)
C2245.91 kcal/day
126/206
63/120
1.11 (0.691.78)
Total
Sex
0.405
Age
0.008
Italy, 19912008
a
The sum does not add up to the total because of one missing value among cases
Estimated from logistic regression models, conditioned on study centre, sex and age, and adjusted for year of interview, education, body mass
index, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, total energy intake, family history of pancreatic cancer, and history of diabetes. No consumption is the
reference category
Strata are based on the median of total energy intake computed among all controls
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Canada
USA
Italy
Multiethnic cohort
study
Sweden
8 years
19931996
19972005
19862000
(HPFS)
Health professionals
follow-up study
(HPFS)
20 years
19802000
(NHS)
326
532
422
149
490
434
131
379
162,150 PR
563,430 PY
77,797 PR
C1 drink/day vs.
\1 drink/month
C1 vs. \1 drink/
day
Soft drinking,
drinkers vs nondrinkers
Carbonated drink/juice
Carbonated beverages
Non-diet soda
C1 vs. \1 drink/
month
[1 drink/week vs.
none or
occasional
Carbonated beverages
Sugar-sweetened soft
2,240,547 PY drinks
138,158 PR
3,158 PR
652 hc
1,701 pc
312 pc
363 pc
490 pc
19842002
25a
13.8 years for
men, 14.8 for
women (mean)
19912008
19951999
20032007
19841987
19761981
Years of study/
duration of
follow-up
Japan
USA
Cohort studies
USA
Country
Case-control studies
First author
Table 2 Casecontrol and cohort studies on the association between soft drink consumption and pancreatic cancer risk
Adjustment factors
C75.7 g*1000/
(Kcal*day) vs.
none
C2 drinks/day vs.
none
C1 drink/day vs.
none
C1 drinks/day vs.
none
C5 vs. \1 drink/
day
Soft drinking,
heavy drinkers vs
non-drinkers
36
Cancer Causes Control (2011) 22:3339
National Institutes of HealthAmerican Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study
Hc, hospital controls; pc, population controls; BMI, body mass index; PR, person at risk; PY, person years
The Singapore
Chinese Health Study
China
14 years
140
60,524 PR
Soft drinks
37
648,387 PY
USA
1995/96-2003
1,258 487,922 PR
Sugar-sweetened
beverages (soft drinks
and regular fruit
drinks)
Adjustment factors
First author
Table 2 continued
Country
Years of study/
duration of
follow-up
Soft drinking,
drinkers vs nondrinkers
Soft drinking,
heavy drinkers vs
non-drinkers
admitted to hospital for any chronic disease and for conditions related to alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking, or
major modifications in diet. The strengths of our study
include the use of a validated [22] and satisfactorily
reproducible FFQ (the correlation coefficient for the
reproducibility of information on soft drinks was 0.61)
[21], the almost complete participation rate ([ 95%), the
same interview setting for cases and controls, and the
availability of a large number of covariates for multivariate
analyses, including a measure of total energy intake.
Our risk estimates are consistent with the overall evidence
from published studies, assessed in this study using a metaanalytic approach. Single studies were conducted in various
countries with different population baseline characteristics,
and estimates were derived allowing for different adjustment
factors. Moreover, the original articles considered different
types of soft drinks, such as carbonated beverages, caffeinated soft drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages, and non-diet
soda, sometimes including low-calorie sweetener drinks,
non-carbonated sweetened drinks, and juices. Various types
of soft drinks have a different composition in terms of sugars,
other nutrients and hence calories, vitamins, minerals, food
components, and other micro-nutrients, which may influence
pancreatic cancer risk [27]. Available data, however, are
inadequate to distinguish between various types of soft
drinks. Furthermore, the measures considered were different
(glass = about 150200 ml, or can = 330 ml). However,
no heterogeneity among studies was found for drinkers vs.
non-drinkers. Moreover, in studies [8, 24] where soft drinks
were grouped with different criteria (non-diet/diet soft
drinks, carbonated/non-carbonated soft drinks), the results
were similar [8], and no increased risk was found also for
sugar-free soft drinks [8, 24]. The significant heterogeneity
found when considering heavy vs. non-drinkers may be due
to the vast variety of categorization of heavy drinkers,
ranging from C2 drinks per week [15] to C5 drinks per day
[25], and to other correlates to heavy consumption.
Publication bias is also possible, with selective reporting
of significant findings. We did not search for unpublished
data or abstracts, given the difficulties in their interpretation. However, no significant asymmetry was present in the
funnel plot, and the Beggs and Eggers tests indicated that
publication bias is unlikely to have materially influenced
our results [28]. Moreover, the ORs of the largest case
control study [8] were 0.81 (95% CI 0.660.99) for
drinkers vs. non/occasional drinkers and 1.00 (95% CI
0.731.36) for the highest category of consumption (C1
drink/day, based on 166 cases) compared with non/occasional drinkers (111 cases). The largest cohort study [19]
found a RR of 0.95 (95% CI 0.851.04) for drinkers vs.
non/occasional drinkers and a RR of 0.83 (0.671.03) for
the highest quintile of consumption (151 cases) compared
with the lowest one (non/occasional drinkers, 574 cases).
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Study
Cancer Cases
RR
95% CI
drinkers/non drinkers
Casecontrol studies
Mack et al, 1986
70/420
0.90
0.651.25
85/58
1.31
0.891.93
*/*
1.24
0.662.33
415/111
0.81
0.660.99
89/236
1.02
0.721.44
0.97
0.811.16
*/*
0.20
0.021.82
174/205
1.07
0.891.29
65/66
1.26
0.941.69
266/168
1.08
0.921.26
684/574
0.94
0.851.04
30/110
0.841.84
1.24
1.05
All studies
1.02
0.931.12
0.941.17
* not available
^ present work
0.5
Relative risk
Fig. 1 Summary relative risks (RRs) of pancreatic cancer for drinkers versus non-drinkers, from casecontrol, cohort studies and overall
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