,

,
.

(. Krugman and Obstfeld (2012) Mark (2001) ).

3.1

.
.
, , .

.
.
.
, ,

.
.
. ,
. ,
.
,
, .
(. 0,71 )
( ). (. 1,4 )
.

,
.
,
.
( )
3.1.
,
. , S1

. 3

, S2 S3 ,
, ,
S1=S3 x S2

(3.1)

(3.1),
(arbitrage) ,
.
.
(spot), (
). .
(swap),
() () .
.
(swap rate)
() ().
(forward exchange rate).
(forward transactions).
, . ,
() . 1 2
, 1, 3, 6 12 .
(premium) (
). (discount).

. 1/3
.
.
,
. ,
. , ,
.
,
.

.
LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate)

. ,
LIBOR (premium).
() 1964
3.2.
2

. 3

3.2
,
, .
i t, i*
, S ( ) F
, . ,
( ,
), . ,

1 + it = (1 + it* )

Ft
St

(3.2)

(3.2) , ,
(arbitrage)
(3.2).
(3.2) ,

it it* + ft st

(3.3)

f=ln(F), s=ln(S).

3.3

, .
, ,
(risk neutrality), ,

Ft = Et (St +1 )

(3.4)

. (3.4)
,
() .
(3.4) (32), .

1 + it = (1 + it* )

Et (St +1 )
St

(3.5)

it it* + Et (st +1 ) st

(3.6)
3

. 3

(3.5) ( (3.6)) ,
,
. (arbitrage)
(3.5).

,
.

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1/
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4/ 9$
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$

,
. 3

3.1

($ )

1,6000$

1,5000$

1,4000$

1,3000$

1,2000$

1,1000$

1,0000$

0,9000$

0,8000$

0,000#

1964,06#
1964,11#
1965,04#
1965,09#
1966,02#
1966,07#
1966,12#
1967,05#
1967,10#
1968,03#
1968,08#
1969,01#
1969,06#
1969,11#
1970,04#
1970,09#
1971,02#
1971,07#
1971,12#
1972,05#
1972,10#
1973,03#
1973,08#
1974,01#
1974,06#
1974,11#
1975,04#
1975,09#
1976,02#
1976,07#
1976,12#
1977,05#
1977,10#
1978,03#
1978,08#
1979,01#
1979,06#
1979,11#
1980,04#
1980,09#
1981,02#
1981,07#
1981,12#
1982,05#
1982,10#
1983,03#
1983,08#
1984,01#
1984,06#
1984,11#
1985,04#
1985,09#
1986,02#
1986,07#
1986,12#
1987,05#
1987,10#
1988,03#
1988,08#
1989,01#
1989,06#
1989,11#
1990,04#
1990,09#
1991,02#
1991,07#
1991,12#
1992,05#
1992,10#
1993,03#
1993,08#
1994,01#
1994,06#
1994,11#
1995,04#
1995,09#
1996,02#
1996,07#
1996,12#
1997,05#
1997,10#
1998,03#
1998,08#
1999,01#
1999,06#
1999,11#
2000,04#
2000,09#
2001,02#
2001,07#
2001,12#
2002,05#
2002,10#
2003,03#
2003,08#
2004,01#
2004,06#
2004,11#
2005,04#
2005,09#
2006,02#
2006,07#
2006,12#
2007,05#
2007,10#
2008,03#
2008,08#
2009,01#
2009,06#
2009,11#
2010,04#
2010,09#
2011,02#
2011,07#
2011,12#

,
. 3

3.2

20,000#

18,000#

16,000#

14,000#

12,000#

10,000#

8,000#

6,000#

4,000#

2,000#

$##
DM#&##

: ().

. 3

Krugman P. and M. Obstfeld (2012), International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson,
London.
Mark Nelson (2001), International Macroeconomics and Finance, Blackwell, Oxford.