Economics and Business Strategy:

Economic Crisis and its Impact on Strategic Decisions in

Emerging Countries
WORKING PAPER - DRAFT TO BE PUBLISHED AFTER REVISION. CONTRIBUTIONS AND CRITICISM ARE
WELCOME, ESPECIALLY REGARDING CASES LINKED TO STUDY IN QUESTION.
Ricardo Pitelli de Britto - rpbritto@usp.br
Doctor FEA / USP Administration
Director of International Business School Brazil
Luiz Roberto Carnier - carnier@carnier.com
FGV Program Coordinator
The Americas Academic Center Professor
Abstract
This article explores the changes in corporate strategy, implemented through technological innovations
and processes, which companies must apply to adapt to changes in the economic
environment. Although this has global implications, this consideration is especially relevant in emerging
countries, since the volatility of emerging economies tends to be higher than in developed countries.
Discussing the current data of the global and Brazilian economies, this article aims to integrate
macroeconomic analysis with the fundamentals of strategy. A brief review of the literature is
incorporated. The analysis of companies whose strategies have adapted to the economic climate is also
included. Such companies include: The Tata Group, Microsoft, BRFoods, Singapore Food Industries, Ri
Happy, Ambev, Whirlpool, The Apothecary amongst others. Highlighting the main factors that must be
considered in business strategy in times of crisis, there is a clear need for further research on conceptual
models that can guide managers to make adjustments that protect their companies amidst economic
turbulence.
Keywords: Economics, Strategy, Emerging Countries, Emerging Economies.

Introduction
Managers of various companies are met with a mixture of anticipation and fear with each new set of
data on the Brazilian and World Economy. This is because it is understood that macroeconomics have a
significant impact on business strategy, particularly in times of crisis. GDP, interest rates, exchange rates,
unemployment rates, and other economic indicators are all part of the daily conversation amongst
mangers in search of benchmarks to aid in adjusting their corporate strategies. They must explore
market opportunities while also being cautious of threats coming from the environment.
Much of the literature discusses how organizations should undertake market positioning driven by a
competitive advantage. This article explores a peculiarity of this theme; that of how to adapt the
strategy to times of crisis, especially while avoiding damaging the company's position in the long run.
Although it is quite frequent allusion to environmental analysis, especially the economic field, as

balizadora source of strategic formulation, it is remarkable superficiality with which this subject is
treated (see Meyer et al, 2011;. HITT et al, 2003: . 59; Hooley, et al, 2005, p.70)...
Economic cycles and strategy
The fact is that the economy does not move in a linear and constant fashion. The economys evolution is
marked by periods of intense growth alternating with periods of moderate growth or even shrinkage of
the economy. This combination of phases gives rise to the so-called "business cycle." Seen by managers
as periods of difficulty, economic downturns are part of the mechanics of economic development as
seen in the literature. They are important moments of adjustment for long-term economic growth.
As shown in Figure 1, even the peaks of global economic growth have cycles from the difference
between the moments of greatest growth and lowest growth (Tiryaki, 2008). Given general market
conditions, such as the regulatory environment and other factors, emerging economies have greater
volatility: periods of stronger growth, alternating with the sudden deceleration of economic
activity. Although several studies have already raised conflicting data on this subject, there seems to be
no relationship between volatility and long-term growth (see LIN, 2012 and RAMEY and RAMEY,
1994). That is, even countries with higher volatility can, in theory, reach a high average growth rate in
the long run, being in environment conducive to the development of markets.
Growth rates vary with the fluctuation of the economy, along with the rest of the major macroeconomic
indicators, such as the exchange rate, inflation, employment, interest rates.
Graph 1 - Evolution of world GDP - 1980-2014 -% pa
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Source and Preparation: IMF - World Economic Outlook Database, July 2015.

Here are some recent figures on the Brazilian and global economy and a discussion of what the manager
will do given the current situation of the Brazilian and global economic cycle. Through the analysis of this
particular economic context it will be possible to draw some conceptual inferences.
According to data from The Ministry of Finance, the Brazilian GDP is expected to shrink 1.2% this year,
returning to growth next discreetly and only earning a little breather in 2018. You can see in Table 1 that
inflation should also stay up the goal in 2015, around 8%, only returning to within a tolerable margin in

2016 and close to the central target in 2017. Cause or effect of these factors, the Selic rate, which is the
rate balizadora the other bank fees charged in Brazil should end the year at 13.25%, 6 percentage points
above the rate of the beginning of the year 2013, when he found its lowest level in 7.25%. The Brazilian
government is using the Selic Rate as the main macroeconomic tool, given that high interest rates
increase the cost for buyers needing loans, decreasing consumption and consequently forcing a drop in
prices. Some analysts point out that much of the inflation comes from the so-called "administered
prices", public tariffs that the government decided to readjust this year.
And outside the country, economic information could also be better as countries are still looking to
recover from the effects of the 2008 crisis, the worst moment of American economic history since 1929.
In 2014 the US government began reducing the contributions made by their central bank (FED) in the
economy. The result was significant appreciation of the dollar relative to other world currencies.
Table 1 - Macroeconomic Data Brazil

Indicator
GDP (real growth% pa)
Ipca (accumulated -% change)
Selic (end of per iodo% pa)

2015

2016

2017

2018

-1.2
8.26
13.25

1.0
5.6
11.50

1.9
4.5
10.50

2.4
4.5
10.00

Source: Ministry of Finance, Office of Strategic Planning, June 2015

The actions taken by the US government in the recovery of the banks and the recovery of the economy
from recession itself were very costly to the public debt of the country. According to World Bank data,
the US debt (internal and external) increased from 55% of GDP in 2007 to 96% of GDP in 2014. As shown
by the data in Table 2, however, this was not an isolated or linear phenomenon. While Germany,
considered the healthiest of European economies, saw its debt rise from 39.4% of GDP to approximately
60%,. The UK had the most aggressive level of growth among the nations of European, jumping from
44% to almost 100% of GDP public debt with creditors from inside and outside the country.
Table 2 - Public Debt, as % of nominal GDP, selected countries and years

Parents
United States
Germany
United Kingdom

2007

2010

2013

55.6
39.4
44.8

85.6
53.7
81.2

96.1
57.4
98.3

Source: World Bank, July 2015 report

Although necessary, this debt endangered economic management in these countries and led them to a
precarious situation. On the one hand, the United States had to reduce their public capital injections
into the economy, which began in February 2014, which help to control inflation and to appreciate its
currency. Yet, they began to deal with import growth and, worse, loss of exports due to lack of
competitiveness in prices caused by the change in exchange rates. The study by Laforte and Roberts
(2014) shows that exchange rate changes havidas since the beginning of this new phase of American
economic adjustment tend to cause changes in the export basket and undertake their own economic
growth.
In Brazil and other emerging economies, it has been possible to feel the effects of macroeconomic
changes in the developed nations of the world. Low GDP growth, high interest rates, investment
reduction, rising unemployment, among others, are the results of adjustments in core countries.
Economics and strategy in emerging countries

But what is the reaction of managers, what impact can be expected? What must a manager practice,
what changes in corporate strategy? The role of the macroeconomic manager of the country is to
improve the overall average of the economy. However, the role of the private manager is to see that
their particular company is above the average for the economy. Both roles can be seen as
complementary - and they certainly are! - yet they are distinct in their specific goals and time horizons.
In a classic article on the topic, Bourgeois discussed this matter in 1985. For him, both the literature on
strategy and the practice of companies seem to be detached from economic analysis (BOURGEOIS,
1985). A few years later, McCabe conducted a study in two sectors of the American economy - logistics
and aviation - concluding similarly that the environmental analysis produced disconnected effects on
strategic business decisions (MCCABE, 1990).
There seems to be little empirical support for the hypothesis that the analysis of the economic
environment serves as support for strategic business decisions. It is not proposed that all companies
adopt similar strategies in the face of economic change; as each sector reacts differently to these
changes. One would expect to see a decision making process using logic backed by theoretical models,
at these times of strong consumption, demand, or currency fluctuations.
A review of the literature in the area can help you understand this potential gap. Much of the literature
on strategy does not clearly discuss the issue of changes in strategy implementation with respect to
environmental changes. And as the economic volatility is particularly more acute in emerging countries,
this theoretical gap can have significant consequences for companies operating in these regions. A
reduction in demand can have devastating impacts on the profit margins of the companies, since many
of them operate within the limits of economies of scale to gain economic profit with their products
(Besanko et. Al. 2007).
Porter, the most influential author in the field of strategy, said that developing a strategy should lead
the company to be different, doing something difficult to be copied and that represents value to plenty
of customers to justify the effort and investment (PORTER , 1996). Such companies should be different
in the way they act in the markets, in the way they present their value propositions, in their willingness
to invest in economies of scale etc. Such choices are ultimately determined, by combining the
capabilities of the enterprise with the environmental conditions in which it is active. His original model
proposed two basic positioning models: cost leadership and differentiation. The impact of Porter's ideas
were so influential that much of the literature in strategy that has evolved since then, was ultimately
derived from these two main paths. Holley, Piercy and Saunders (2005), for example, suggest a list of
alternative strategies that will be further discussed here, each clearly marked by Porters thoughts.
Thus, if economic conditions change, the strategy should be reassessed. It is known that not all sectors
are equally affected by changes in climate of the economy. There is even evidence that some sectors are
less affected by the crisis - and also for the expansion of consumption - there is even empirical support
asserting that there are sectors that are "counter-cyclical", growing more in times of downturn than in
times of expansion (Besley & Brigham, 2008). Examples of commonly cited counter-cyclical sectors are
the area of health, food and basic clothing.
But the central issue remains the same: what are the most appropriate policy responses to the
economic changes? Even in a company operating in a counter-cyclical sector, the economic
transformations will affect its performance, although in the opposite direction to the other sectors. One
might argue that the recession, for example, reaches all companies at the same time, so that the relative
position between them would be maintained. But this is not exactly correct, as shown above. And even
if it were correct, organizations that react better to crisis contexts would gain an advantage before the

other, so that the crisis would in any case trigger the changes of competitive advantages (Laeven and
VALENCIA, 2013).
Whereas the volatility of growth rates, defined as the distance between the peaks and valleys of these
rates is greater in emerging markets. The ability of active managers in these countries to reassess their
strategy before the scene changes is more vital to the success of the company. In times of rapid growth,
it is expected to see the emergence of more opportunities for companies whose competitive position is
that of differentiation. (Porter, 1986 and 1989) in its multiple formats (HOLLEY, SAUNDERS and Piercy,
2005). Alternatively, the recession leads buyers to reevaluate how much they are willing to pay a
"premium price" to acquire differentiated products, forcing companies operating in this format to
reassess their strategies.
Macroeconomic indicators and strategic decisions
The US government strongly reduced the inflow of funds in the economy in 2014, causing the rise in the
dollar against other world currencies. As we have seen, the depreciated dollar had caused a drop in
interest rates, some inflationary pressure - whether caused by increased consumption, either by excess
money supply - expansion of US exports, and a number of other impacts on the global economy.
Below are some of the main macroeconomic indicators in search of suggesting ways of developing
enterprises.
Exchange rate changes
With the economic liberalization of the early 1990s, the flow of foreign trade has expanded, promoting
strong growth of international trade.

Figure 2 - Brazilian Trade Balance - 1950-2013 - US $ billion FOB

Source and Preparation: MDIC, July 2015

Even when the real appreciated, between the years 2010-2013, the Brazilian trade balance was positive,
driven by the rise of some commodities. But this result masked the decline in industrial exports, which

suffered from the reduced competitiveness in prices and low investment in technology. Already in 2014
the trade balance had a significant loss and marked deficit in international trade, the first time since
2000. But the appreciation of the dollar, combined with other factors, gave a new catalyst for exports
and so imports shrank further, projecting a surplus of around US $10B according to industry analysts
(Mesquita, 2015).
In a very limited period of time, the Brazilian exchange rate has pointed to various directions, not always
with the final result the market has expected. This causes important effects on the company's strategy
if active in international business. The moment the Real swings down, it harms imports but increases the
export competitiveness of the country's companies. They tend to better face the current context of
companies in their strategic development, and adopt a set of actions for their international
strategy. Cavusgill, Knight and Riesenberger (2013) suggest two major actions:
- Combination of exports with imports: this policy acts as a "natural hedge" as opposed to a "financial
hedge," which is a banking product to protect businesses against currency fluctuations. The benefit is
twofold. Firstly, this combination mitigates currency risk itself, leading the company to have receivables
and assets in foreign currencies simultaneously. Secondly, it offers the company the chance to explore
the relative attractiveness of international markets in different conditions- while a country is more likely
to export, others will be more likely to import at least considering the exchange rate factor. A concrete
example of this practice can be seen in the automotive industry. Firms that internationalize their
production with assembly facilities scattered in various continents, by implementing a strong policy of
intra-group international trade in order to benefit from exchange rate changes, outperform those who
do not who do not develop this strategy (Anfavea, 2015).
- Diversification of markets: it dilutes the volatility, producing an effect at least partially like a natural
hedge. Although the Real depreciated against the dollar more than the average of major world
currencies, other emerging currencies depreciated as well. US only products face greater difficulties
than organizations that vary their supply network.
But it is important for the manager to be aware that the strategic implications of these actions are
immense. A company in any way linked to foreign trade, either as a producer or as a distributor, has a
tendency to specialize in certain markets or products and hence do not have the above diversification
(DOUGLAS, CRAIG, 2011). It must then be known by managers that the longer a currency stays stable
the more likely a turning point is on the horizon, which is particularly amplified in emerging countries.
Therefore, the organization should make an effort to implement or, if this is not feasible, at least should
structure well defined plans to "reverse" the direction of its international trade flows at the start of the
transformation of the economic context (LUO, WANG, 2012).

Economic growth and cost of capital

Brazilian interest rates have followed a global uptrend since early this year. The United States and
Europe, before a relative recovery of the economy of these regions, began a process of rebuilding their
basic rates by encouraging savings. The Brazilian government should use the high-interest to hold the
economy in line in with moderate inflation.
Table 3 below, you can see the evolution of Brazil's Selic interest rate from the implementation to
date. It is clear that, despite the enormous effort of structural adjustment of the Brazilian economy, in
order to well manage the interest rate, the fluctuation of this indicator may continue with some
volatility in the coming years.

Table 3 - Long-term evolution of the Selic rate - selected years

Year
1996
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 **

% Pa *
21.73
15.76
18.00
10.66
11.00
7.25
10.00
11.75
13.15

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Prepared by
* At end of period
** April 2015

Compared with the rates at the beginning of this time series, recent figures may seem low, especially
remembering the 45.67% recorded in October 1997. But the current bias is high in the short term, given
the government's efforts to retract the consumption and offer greater reliability and attractiveness to
international investors. This forces the manager to make changes in their strategy. Some businesses that
were profitable at a lower interest rate may simply cease to be interesting due to the fact that their
rates of return would be close to - or below - the cost of capital.
Higher capital costs punish long-term investments, characteristic of the research and development of
new products. With elongated benefits and lower interest rates, consumers can buy more items and
more expensive items. With rising interest rates, household consumption is affected, especially in the
discretionary range of consumption. Consumer classic behavior in these contexts is migrating to cheaper
products - pushing the company to another strategic change (Kunc and BANDAHARI, 2013).
Similar to Cavulgils suggestion, diversification seems to be the key to this strategic impasse. If a
company seeks to position itself in markets with a focus on differentiation, it will suffer the
consequences of a change in interest level with greater intensity than a company with a family of more
extensive products, including more affordable items. Given the possible restrictions of expanding
product families for reasons of brand management, one option to consider would be the opening of
new business units, presented to the market under different brands. This would offer more affordable
products in unfavorable economic conditions.
Such a structure can be placed permanently with differentiated products living with low-cost products.
Otherwise, the company can position itself and plan options to be implemented in times of market
change.
On the other hand, companies adopting the classic strategy of leading with cost will also be
affected. With lower sales, companies will observe the growth of their average total unit cost. If this
increase in costs is absorbed by the company, commits the bank. If it is passed on to the consumer, it
compromises the competitive position. Similarly to what has been said for companies focusing on

differentiation, the firm that operates with Cost Leadership positioning can, in times of crisis and low
production scale, seek to add value to their products, create families of products or business units aimed
to pursue opportunities in this context. But that of course is not feasible within a short period of time,
this approach is more feasible for organizations already structured accordingly or already offering
products within a differentiation strategy. Success is also greater for companies that have prepared the
entire structure and plan of action preemptively, ready to be put in action in times of crises.
But the literature has discussed the difficulties of this positioning hybrid. Companies like Indian group
Tata, which in 2008 acquired the Jaguar and Land Rover brands, highlights the challenges of managing
such different business units in terms of positioning. Therefore, we present below some considerations
and suggestions of strategies to circumvent the effects of the crisis within the same market approach.
Adaptations in Leadership Strategy Costs
Downsizing: defined as the effort of streamlining the company's operations, this strategy is usually to
keep all the main operations of the organization running, but with widespread cutting of costs. Much
criticized in the 90s as a strategy that did not produce the expected results and even punished the
organizational fabric because of the layoffs and other cost cuts, downsizing is now seen as an action that
should be taken routinely by businesses, with a view to a natural cost growth trend (HITT, 2002).
Downscoping: Downsizing similar to Downscoping has the difference that it does not propose the
widespread cost cutting, but specifically the unattractive business units that are irrelevant to the central
business of a company. Microsoft recently decided to implement this action, reducing drastically the
number of employees in its telephone unit, allowing a concentration of the company's focus in the areas
of software, especially Windows.
Strategic Alliances: These alliances aim to promote cost sharing between companies. Due to its more
complex type, it will be elaborated on in the sub-topics below.
Synergistic: the ultimate goal of these strategies is the search for economies of scale. The possible loss
of economies of scale can also arise from this. Synergistic relationships can also be in the form of joint
operations such as a merger, acquisition, or opening of a joint venture. A recent example was the joint
venture between Ambev and Whirlpool. Together they created a company, B.Blend, to develop a home
appliance for making drinks. Alone, both companies would have great difficulty to thrive in this market.
Franchising: best known for creating retail models with third capital contribution and transfer of rights,
there are several possible ways for a company to benefit from Franchising. It may grant another
company the right to use a trademark. It may also share market stock using third-party trademarks or
attract capital to operate in specific markets. This was the case of Ri Happy, traditional retailer of toys in
Brazil. With 207 stores and only 24 franchises, the group has invested in the expansion of its format to
attract investors and partners to explore opportunities in medium-sized cities where the company has
no resources to operate.
Additional Alliances: Similar to Synergistic, this is characterized by the decision of two or more firms to
mutually relinquish part of their operations before competitors. Two companies operating in the market
offering a full range of services can cease activities or they can use alliances to complement their
portfolio of services. The company BRFoods and the Singapore Food Industry planned a joint venture in
Asian markets. While BRFoods can devote more intensely to food production, IFC enters the partnership
structure offering local logistics support.
Adaptations Differentiation Strategy

In addition to migrating towards a strategy of cost leadership, a firm focusing on differentiation can
address a crisis my amplifying its differentiation. This option carries risks, like all other anti-crisis
strategies, but may represent an exit strategy that preserves the brand's positioning in the long run
rather than compromise it. Some of the recommended strategies are as follows (Hooley):
Increase the quality: the organization can look for ways to better understand what their customers
expect in terms of quality and increase its key elements. The result of increasing quality may be the loss
of customer loyalty as they migrate to more affordable alternatives. Yet, price increases may help offset
the margins lost by the lower sales volume.
Innovation: similar to Increase the Quality strategy, this approach aims to bring to market an innovative
product capable of increasing the product lines that were being substituted with lower-cost competitors
(BATTISTELLA, BIOTTO, DE TONI,2011).
Increase in service: is another variation in order to increase the value delivered to customers. Distinct
from Innovation, this has the advantage of lower cost and faster deployment time than strategies
involving physical changes to products.
Increase in Communication Value: many customers stop buying the products of a company active in the
differentiation strategy for failing to see the benefits embedded in their products. This factor tends to be
accentuated in times of crisis. This strategy is very simple to perform, but depends on the ability of
managers to identify the amounts not perceived by customers and formulate ways to communicate
them.
Sub-segmentation or Niche Search : This action aims to identify sub-groups, or even individual
customers, whose specific needs are not adequately met by the firm. The firm utilizes this
understanding to promote the actions needed to retain these customers through customized value
delivery. The Apothecary Group launched in 2012 a new brand named "Who said, Berenice?". Their goal
was to reach a younger audience with less purchasing power through a more jovial and relaxed market
positioning.
Changes in levels of employment and unemployment
The last macroeconomic factor that this article deals with is high unemployment rates. Current levels in
Brazil are not too high, but an upward trend in the coming years seems inevitable. Compared with other
countries, there is still a reasonable level of employment. With the rise in unemployment, it is expected
that there is a greater availability of labor in Brazil, including skilled labor, the scarcity of which was
pointed out by many experts as a major bottleneck in the development of enterprises in the country. On
the other hand, this forces a reduction of workers' income, whose earnings on inflation have widened in
recent years (IBGE, 2014).
Chart 2 -% vacancy rate for the months of May
Six metropolitan areas surveyed

Source and Preparation: IBGE Monthly Employment Survey, May 2015

While in Brazil the unemployment rate is close to its historical minimum, several regions of the world
are still in difficult situations caused by the crisis of 2008 and other situational factors.
Map 1 -% unemployment rate by country / region - Dec / 2014

Source: International Labour Organization

Produced by: World Bank, World Bank Open Data

The map above indicates that most countries today have unemployment rates above 10% of the
economically active population, and many African countries as well as Spain and Greece in Europe, have
rates above 25%.
Rising unemployment is largely caused by job cuts in companies, although other structural factors in the
economy produce fluctuations in the unemployment rate (BEZANKO et al. 2007). However, companies
should implement specific strategic actions to combat the inherent difficulties of these fluctuations.
Actions must first, be beneficial to the companies themselves in the medium term, but also make a
contribution to alleviate the social impacts of large-scale unemployment.

The actions suggested in the literature and observed cases are described amongst others below.
Recruitment of skilled professionals: a major movement to be performed is the search for qualified
professionals in areas and projects that were stopped because of manpower shortages.
Focus on projects with intensive use of personnel : in times of high interest rates, the availability for
investment in capital goods tends to shrink. A very desirable strategy for companies is to focus on
projects and initiatives that require a more manpower than equipment. Such projects tend to have
flexibility and a lower cost of deployment. They also provide the ability to find personnel available for
employment. (Resende and SOUSA, 2014 ).
Conclusions and recommendations
From the analysis of business cases and literature, this study sought to extract a set of theoretical
inferences to be better assessed and tested in future studies. The main conclusion points to the need for
organizations to observe their value chain carefully, looking for opportunities to adapt their strategies to
large movement of macroeconomic indicators, especially in times of crisis.
Faced with the evidence of this work it will be imperative that companies in general, particularly those
of emerging countries seek to develop a competitive advantage. This presents attributes or
differentiations superior to competitors, taking into account the limiting factors of the economic
environment in which they are operating. The volatility of markets evidenced by this study indicates that
the strategy for sustainability of business is closely linked to innovation. Innovation here is focused not
only in products, but mainly innovation in production processes and innovation in the relationship with
the market in terms of negotiations, logistics, etc. In this context it can be considered fundamental for
the company to prepare managers to be leaders in innovation.
Managers should understand environmental changes and their impact on the company's strategies. And
seek strategies in the literature the foundations necessary to enhance their decision making process.
This work also brought up a field of possibilities for new studies on combining macroeconomic analysis
as a source of strategic decision making. The observed cases combine the available theory with the basis
for creating assumptions of statistical studies on the subject. It seems to be possible and beneficial to
develop a set of theoretical models, empirically tested, to guide managers in search of concrete action
plans aimed at driving their organizations during periods of crisis.

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IBGE, Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego, Maio de 2015, www.ibge.gov.br
Banco Mundial, http://data.worldbank.org/
Microsoft News Center, http://news.microsoft.com/
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Grupo O Boticrio, http://www.grupoboticario.com.br/
Ri Happy, Relaes com Investidores, http://www.rihappy.com.br/relacao-com-investidores