Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Prospect Evaluation
Prospect Evaluation
Prospect Evaluation
Exploration Strategy
1. Global Basin Analysis
CRITICAL DECISIONS?
4. Evaluate Prospects
5. Identify Drillable
Prospects
Drillable
Prospects/
Well proposals
6. Drill Exploration
Wells
Drill
Exploration
Wells
= New Reserves
Basin/Play Evaluation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1)
2)
3)
4)
Probability of Success
Risk Factor
Risk (0-1)
Probability hydrocarbon charge
0.80
Probability of good reservoir
0.80
Probability of a trap
0.70
(Multiply all the factors)
Chance of Success
0.44
EIA Data
Hydrocarbon charge
Source Rock Quality (TOC, Kerogen type)
Maturity of Source Rock
Migration Pathways
Reservoir
Porosity
Permeability
Trap
Closure (Trap volume)
Seal (Trapping efficiency)
Timing
Claudius Lead
Jurassic
A. Everything is cool
(100%)
Gertrude Prospects
B. No structural traps
(20%)
C. Long migration
required (50%)
Polonius Prospect
D. Long migration
and bad reservoir
(30%)
CI = 300m
HAMLET Prospect
Hamlet
GEOMETRY:
ESTIMATED RESERVES:
Risk Elements x Res. Potential
.34
1
1
RESERVOIR
POTENTIAL:
Pay Aerial Extent =
.6
Pay Thickness =
* (Multizone)
Porosity =
.8
Saturation =
Trap Quality =
Migration/Trap Timing =
CI = 500m
CI = 500m
50 m
750m
1050m
7%
15 %
40 %
60 %
Cumulative Probability
Min
P90
Min
P10
P10
340km2
.7
Probability Distribution
P90
200km2
Most
likely
Max
Max
Volumetric calculation
Volumetric Example
Reserves=
Area of trap x
Net reservoir thickness x
Porosity x
Hydrocarbon saturation x
Recovery factor x
Formation volume factor
Thickness: 48 ft
Net/Gross: 0.40
Net Thickness =
19 ft
Recovery Factor
GERTRUDE
Prospect
Gertrude
GEOMETRY:
ESTIMATED RESERVES:
.12
.8
.6
RESERVOIR
POTENTIAL:
Pay Aerial Extent =
25km2
27km2
Pay Thickness =
140m
150m
9%
11 %
70 %
80 %
.7
Porosity =
.7
Saturationc =
Trap Quality =
CI = 50m
Migration/Trap Timing =
.5
P90
P10
Risked Reserves
NETL, 2009