Swing Riding Polls Wave Two

LEADNOW
SEPTEMBER 22, 2015

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

METHODOLOGY
Environics was commissioned by LeadNow to conduct telephone surveys of
approximately 500 to 600 eligible voters in each of 31 federal ridings across
Canada between September 18 and 21, 2015. The research was conducted
using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and the findings were
weighted by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the
electorate.
A total of 18,758 eligible voters were surveyed. Survey of this magnitude will
yield aggregate results which can be considered accurate to within plus or
minus 0.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The sample size and
margin of error for each individual riding are described on the following
pages.
The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each
riding, the names of nominated local candidates were read. Questions were
also posed on whether respondents felt they were voting to re-elect or
defeat the Conservative government and those supporting opposition party
candidates were asked about their willingness to switch their vote to the
candidate with the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Methodology
Riding

Field dates

Sample size

Margin of error

Fredericton

Sept. 18-19

580

4.1

Eglinton-Lawrence

Sept. 18-19

565

4.1

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Sept. 18-19

537

4.2

Kitchener Centre

Sept. 19-20

672

3.8

London North Centre

Sept. 19-20

540

4.2

Willowdale

Sept. 18-20

535

4.2

Elmwood-Transcona

Sept. 19-20

552

4.2

Saskatoon-University

Sept. 18-20

853

3.4

Calgary Centre

Sept. 18-20

531

4.3

Port Moody-Coquitlam

Sept. 19-20

529

4.3

Vancouver Granville

Sept. 19-21

541

4.2

Kanata-Carlton

Sept. 19-20

562

4.1

Nepean

Sept. 19-20

569

4.1

Orleans

Sept. 19-20

567

4.1

OSawa West-Nepean

Sept. 19-20

747

3.6

Waterloo

Sept. 18-20

658

3.8

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Methodology
Riding

continued

Field dates

Sample size

Margin of error

Winnipeg South Centre

Sept. 19-20

597

4.0

Kootenay-Columbia

Sept. 18-19

529

4.3

Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Sept. 19-20

699

3.7

North Island-Powell River

Sept. 18-19

556

4.2

Central Nova

Sept. 19-20

573

4.1

Cumberland-Colchester

Sept. 19-20

617

3.9

PiS Meadows-Maple Ridge

Sept. 18-20

543

4.2

Yukon

Sept. 19-21

497

4.4

Saint John-Rothesay

Sept. 19-20

623

3.9

Niagara Falls

Sept. 19-20

557

4.2

Sault Ste. Marie

Sept. 19-20

632

3.9

BranYord-Brant

Sept. 19-20

622

3.9

Cambridge

Sept. 19-20

552

4.2

Guelph

Sept. 19-20

601

4.0

Sept. 21

1,022

3.1

Sept 18 - 21

18,758

0.7

Grey Bruce-Owen Sound

Total

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Six in ten are voting to defeat the Harper

Conservatives and elect a different government
Voting to re-elect or defeat Harper Conservatives
18

11

32

58
Voting to defeat Harper
Voting to re-elect Harper
dk

Q. In this election, would you say you are voting to re-elect Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, or are you voting to defeat the
Harper Conservatives and elect a different government?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Six in ten opposition voters are willing to vote for

candidate with best chance of beating Conservatives
according to local polling
Willing to change vote vs. sticking with first choice
18

60%

61%

61%
50%

49%
39%

Willing to change vote to defeat Conservative candidate

Total

NDP supporters

38%

38%

Would not change vote based on local polling

Liberal supporters

Green supporters

Q. If local polling showed that another candidate had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in your riding, would you
be willing to change your vote in order to defeat the Conservative, or would you stick with your current vote regardless?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Mira Oreck of the NDP leads by 6 points in

Vancouver Granville
2015 Vancouver Granville vote intention
10
Decided voters - Sept

36

Decided voters - Aug

36

Election 2011 results

NDP/Oreck

24

CPC/Broshko

29

30

35

Liberal/Wilson-Raybould

30

24

30

10

Green/Barkusky

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Fin Donnelly of the NDP currently leads by 7

points in Port Moody-Coquitlam
2015 Port Moody-Coquitlam vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

41

54

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Donnelly

34

40

CPC/Laidler

19

27

14

46

Liberal/Adcock

9 4

Green/Madsen

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Bob DEith of the NDP leads by 6 points in

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
September 2015 Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/D'Eith

41

35

35

CPC/Murray

19

55

Liberal/Ruimy

Green/Tam

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

Rachel Blaney of the NDP leads by 14 points

in North Island-Powell River
September 2015 North Island-Powell River vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

41

42

Election 2011 results

NDP/Blaney

27

CPC/Smith

18

46

Liberal/Schwartzhoff

14

Green/Sayers

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

10

Sheila Malcolmson of NDP leads by 10 points

in Nanaimo-Ladysmith
September 2015 Nanaimo-Ladysmith vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Malcolmson

34

24

17

45

CPC/MacDonald

24

40

Liberal/Tessier

Green/Manly

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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Kootenay-Columbia is a dead heat between

Stetski NDP and Wilks Conservative
September 2015 Kootenay-Columbia vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Stetski

37

37

39

CPC/Wilks

Liberal/Johnston

15

11

50 3

Green/Green

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

12

Liberal Larry Bagnell leads Melissa Atkinson

of the NDP by 10 points in Yukon
September 2015 Yukon vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

29

14

NDP/Atkinson

27

34

CPC/Leef

39 4

33

Liberal/Bagnell

19

Green/De Jong

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

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Joan Crockatt of the CPC leads Liberal Kent

Hehr by 8 points in Calgary Centre
2015 Calgary Centre vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

11

17

Decided voters - Aug

By-election 2012 results

Election 2011 Results

NDP/Ratti

47

39 3

44

32

37

33

15

55

CPC/Crockatt

Liberal/Hehr

26

19

10

Green/Boonlert

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

14

Saskatoon-University now a dead heat between

NDP Clair Card and CPC Brad Trost
2015 Saskatoon-University vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

37

Decided voters - Aug

41

Election 2011 results

NDP/Card

37

34

38

CPC/Trost

22 4

22 4

49

Liberal/Block

10 3

Green/Harvey*

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?
* Candidate name added in Sept wave
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

15

Liberal Jim Carr leads Joyce Bateman of the

CPC by 7 points in Winnipeg South Centre
September 2015 Winnipeg South Centre vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

Election 2011 results

NDP/Henderson

23

31

18

38

41

CPC/Bateman

Liberal/Carr

37 3

Green/Park

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

16

Elmwood-Transcona currently a tight race

between Blaikie NDP and Toet CPC
2015 Elmwood-Transcona vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

37

Decided voters - Aug

39

Election 2011 results

NDP/Blaikie

39

30

45

CPC/Toet

20 4

25

47

Liberal/Richardson-Lipon

5 3

Green/Parke*

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?
* Candidate name added in Sept wave
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

17

Eglinton-Lawrence continues to show a tight

race between Marco Mendicino and Joe
Oliver
2015 Eglinton-Lawrence vote intention

4
24

Decided voters - Sept

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Thomson

25

12

35

37 4

36

35 4

47

CPC/Oliver

Liberal/Mendicino

38 3

Green

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

18

Etobicoke Lakeshore currently showing a

close Liberal/CPC race
2015 Etobicoke Lakeshore vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

19

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Trotter

38

28

20

CPC/Trottier

31

40

Liberal/Maloney

40 3

36

35 4

Green/Salewsy

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

19

Its still a three-way race in Kitchener Centre

2015 Kitchener Centre vote intention
Decided voters - Sept

30

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Cadell

33

22

CPC/Woodworth

31

29

40

Liberal/Saini

33

31

32

Green/Wendler

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

20

London North Centre is currently a dead heat

between the Liberals and Conservatives
2015 London North Centre vote intention
Decided voters - Sept

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Gutierrez-Sanin

25

27

24

CPC/Truppe

35

32

37

Liberal/Gragiskatos

35

34

34 4

Green/Dyck

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

21

Liberal Ali Ehsassi has a 9 point lead in

Willowdale
2015 Willowdale vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

15

36

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Tabasinejad

26

19

45

32

37

41

CPC/Leung

Liberal/Ehsassi

391

Green/Arruda*

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?
* Candidate name added in Sept wave
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

22

Conservative Walter Pamic leads Liberals by

7 points in Kanata-Carleton
September 2015 Kanata-Carleton vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

13

Election 2011 results

NDP/Hansen

44

15

37

54

CPC/Pamic

Liberal/McCrimmon

26

Green/West

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

23

Andy Wang of the CPC leads Liberal Chandra

Arya by 6 points in Nepean
September 2015 Nepean vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Devine

19

40

18

34

51

CPC/Wang

Liberal/Arya

27 4

Green/Cooke

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

24

Andrew Leslie of the Liberals leads the

Conservatives by 15 points in Orleans
September 2015 Orleans vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

11

36

14

NDP/Tremblay Winfield

51 3

45

CPC/Galipeau

38 3

Liberal/Leslie

Green/Morin

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

25

Anita Vandenbeld of Liberals has a narrow 4

point lead in Ottawa West-Nepean
September 2015 Ottawa West-Nepean vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

20

Election 2011 results

20

NDP/Rivier

35

39

45

CPC/Abdi

Liberal/Vandenbeld

31 4

Green

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

26

Liberal Bardish Chagger leads Conservative

Peter Braid by 8 points in Waterloo
September 2015 Waterloo vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

26

15

NDP/Freeman

31

41

CPC/Braid

Liberal/Chagger

39 3

38

Green/Walsh

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

27

Conservative Rob Nicholson has a 15 point

lead in Niagara Falls
September 2015 Niagara Falls vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Ioannoni

27

42

23

25

53

CPC/Nicholson

Liberal/Planche

19 4

Green/Soos

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

28

Sault Ste. Marie is a tight three-way race

September 2015 Sault Ste. Marie vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Morrison

30

31

37

CPC/Hayes

34

40

Liberal/Sheehan

20 2

Green

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

29

McColeman CPC has a 9 point lead over

Laferriere NDP in Brantford-Brant
September 2015 Brantford-Brant vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/LaFerriere

30

39

29

CPC/McColeman

25

48

Liberal/Takacs

19 3

Green/Brandt

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

30

Conservative Gary Goodyear leads the Liberal

by 9 points in Cambridge
September 2015 Cambridge vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Stewart

17

43

28

CPC/Goodyear

34

53

Liberal/May

15 4

Green/Braniff

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

31

Lloyd Longfield of the Liberals has a 20-point

lead over Gloria Kovach of the CPC in Guelph
September 2015 Guelph vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Seagram

18

25

17

45

33

CPC/Kovach

12

43

Liberal/Longfield

Green/Miller

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

32

Conservative Larry Miller has a 14 point lead

in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
September 2015 Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/McLaren

20

43

18

29

56

CPC/Miller

Liberal/Love

16

10

Green/Albinati

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

33

Liberal Matt DeCourcey continues to hold a

5-point lead in Fredericton
2015 Fredericton vote intention

Decided voters - Sept

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Scott-Levesque

20

32

26

24

CPC/Ashfield

37

29

34

47

Liberal/Decourcey

10

12

24 4

Green/Babineau

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

34

Liberal Sean Fraser has a 27-point lead over

Conservative Fred De Lorey in Central Nova
September 2015 Central Nova vote intention

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Landry

20

23

50

27

CPC/De Lorey

55

Liberal/Fraser

14 4

Green/Hachey

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

35

Liberal Bill Casey leads by 22 points in

Cumberland-Colchester
September 2015 Cumberland-Colchester vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Robinson

32

54

22

53

CPC/Armstrong

Liberal/Casey

18

Green/Blanch

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

36

Conservative Weston leads Liberal Long by

5 points in Saint John-Rothesay
September 2015 Saint John-Rothesay vote intention

Decided voters - Sept.

Election 2011 results

NDP/Griffin

25

38

31

CPC/Weston

33 4

50

Liberal/Long

16 3

Green/Murphy

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

37

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:

Brenda Sharpe
SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Tel: 613-230-5089 x 228

Email: brenda.sharpe@environics.ca

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 |

38