AFRICA

SECURITY MATTERS
Africa remains a region ripe for tourism development, but the recent terror attack in Tunisia is a reminder
of how instability and a lack of liberalisation present challenges to fulfilment of its potential

WORST FEARS
Many of the industrys worst fears
came home to roost in 2015,
when the Tunisian tourism market was targeted by Islamic State
militants in two devastating terror attacks. A total of 58 foreign
tourists, mostly Westerners, lost
their lives in shootings at the
Bardo National Museum in

though, this is too little, too late.

Whereas Germany and France are
voicing confidence in the heightened security apparatus, the UKs
Foreign Office is advising against
all but essential travel to the country because it does not believe
the mitigation measures in place
provide adequate protection for
British tourists.
Charter carriers can expect to
bear the brunt of such negative
travel advisories, owing to the
overnight nullification of insurance policies for their affiliated
tour operators. But even in the
scheduled market, the downturn
has been sharp. Scheduled flight
movements in Tunisia fell 19%
year-on-year in August, Flightglobals Innovata schedules show.
SIPA/Rex Shutterstock

iven that nine of the

worlds 20 fastest growing economies are in
Africa, it is hardly surprising that IATA predicts sustained annual growth of 5% for
African airlines over the coming
two decades.
The industry groups forecast
may even be conservative. A
separate report by consultants
Intervistas estimates that intraAfrican liberalisation in just 12
countries would rapidly unlock
latent demand for five million
new passenger journeys a year,
more than doubling traffic in
heavily protected markets like
Angola and Algeria.
Yet rosy forecasts have been
made about the continent before
and have generally been proven
wrong. In 2014, African traffic
grew at the slowest pace of any region: just 0.9%, compared with
13% in the Middle East.
The toxic combination of
heavy regulation, poor infrastructure and substandard safety was
exacerbated last year by West Africas Ebola epidemic, before
being dragged even further down
by a wave of terrorist violence
emanating from Somalia, Nigeria
and Libya.
For airlines weighing up route
launches in Africa, the scale of
opportunity on the continent
seems to be matched pound-forpound by the vast and often unpredictable challenges thrown
in their way.

Africa is on high alert after attacks on tourists in Tunisia

March and the seaside resort of
Port El Kantaoui in June.
Overseas tour operators responded by pulling out of Tunisia
en masse, heeding warnings from
several Western governments
about the risk of further attacks in
the North African country. Hanover-based TUI Group, the owner of
six European airlines, pegged its
Tunisia-related losses at 32 million ($50 million).
But according to Joachim Vermooten, a South African aviation
analyst and lecturer in tourism
studies at the University of Pretoria, it is too early to assess the
long-term impact on Tunisias
tourism industry.
While similar attacks in Kenya
notably the 2013 Westgate
shopping mall atrocity precipitated a deep and sustained fall in
visitor numbers, there are also
precedents for a quick recovery.
The Egyptian tourism market, for

18 | Airline Business Daily @ Routes | 20 September 2015

example, swiftly rebounded after

the killing of 58 foreigners in
Luxor in 1997.
Personally, I dont think that
the Tunisia terror attacks will
have a permanent or sustained

Opportunities are
open for safe-haven
countries like Namibia
to raise their profile
impact on travel to the country,
he says. Tourism will, however,
be affected in the medium term
until perceptions and concerns
are relieved.
Vermooten notes that Tunis has
already taken steps to reassure
travellers by boosting security at
key tourism sites such as beaches,
hotels and archaeological attractions. For some governments,

POCKETS OF OPPORTUNITY
Though the overall trend is negative, Vermooten says a lack of
consensus among foreign governments has created pockets of opportunity for route development.
The fact is visits [to Tunisia]
do offer exceptional value for
money from a tourism perspective, he argues. The destination
should be promoted [by tour operators and airlines] in new-origin markets, through the media
and through known celebrities in
those target markets.
Turning to the wider problem
of terrorism in Africa, he says
perceived safe haven countries
like Namibia and Botswana also
have an opportunity to raise their
profile in the current climate. Although unlikely to win customers from North African beach
visitor, these southern African
countries can compete with East
African destinations for highyielding safari tourists. Visitor
numbers to Kenya were down
25% in the first five months of
Continued on page 21

AFRICA

Continued from page 18

2015, for example, as Somalias

Al Shabaab terror group stepped
up cross-border attacks.
Unsurprisingly, Mbuvi Ngunze,
the chief executive of flag carrier
Kenya Airways, is eager to see a
different outcome. He believes
that tourists, travel companies and
the media should move away
from simplistic country-by-country assessments.
There is a recognition that terrorism
affects
everybody,
Ngunze says. We had a terrorist
attack in Paris this year, and one
in Copenhagen. Did people stop
going to France or Denmark? He
adds: Countries like Kenya and
others that face a terrorist threat
require support [from the global
community], not distancing.
His call for solidarity echoes
calls made by the World Health
Organisation during last years
Ebola outbreak in West Africa. In
that health crisis, as in the current security crisis, airlines and
governments were criticised for
abandoning countries in their
time of need. Then, as now, overreactions by some created opportunities for others.

The sub-region was left isolated in 2002 following the collapse

of Air Afrique, its only transnational carrier. Yet from Air Afriques ashes have risen two new
players Togos ASKY Airlines
and Ivory Coasts Air Cote
dIvoire which both use fifthfreedom traffic rights to offer regional connectivity beyond their
own borders.

LIBERAL INTENT
While their business models
would have struggled in other
parts of the continent, they have
succeeded in West Africa thanks
to broad-based political backing
roused by the poor state of connectivity during the early 2000s.

In West and Central Africa all

the governments stick to
Yamoussoukro, so theres no
issue with traffic rights, says
Ren Decurey, the chief executive of Air Cote dIvoire, in reference to the 1999 Yamoussoukro
Declaration that was designed to
liberalise cross-border flying, but
that has largely been ignored in
most sub-regions.
Other West African countries
are meanwhile still finding their
feet. Ghana, for example, is considered one of the sub-regions
biggest economic success stories
yet its largest airline deploys
just three small aircraft.
Vermooten believes that fifthfreedom services should be

stepped up in these underperforming countries. Both Togos

ASKY operation and SAAs
[South African Airways] new
flights between Accra and Washington DC contribute to Ghanas
aviation development by building scale and traffic density,

0.9%

African traffic growth

was the slowest
globally in 2014
which are in Ghanas long-term
interests, he argues. [Without
them] it would probably take
some years before Ghana would
build a critical mass of passenger
traffic flows.
However, by calling for more
African countries to open their
skies and inject competition into
their home markets, Vermootens
argument comes full circle and
the practical challenges of operating on the continent will reassert themselves.

[Sierra Leones capital] Freetown, especially, is an opportunity for Air France, says Frank
Legr, vice-president of Africa
for Air France-KLM, which restored its Paris-Freetown route
this summer following a temporary suspension.
Before the crisis there were
two airlines flying nonstop [from
Freetown] to the UK: British Airways and Gambia Bird. Now
there are none. We can connect
those passengers.
Looking
beyond
specific
shocks, West Africa has in many
ways become a microcosm of the
continents cycle of downturns
and opportunities.

Kenya Airways

Countries like Kenya

that face a terrorist
threat require support,
not distancing

Kenya Airways Ngunze is seeking international support

Protectionism rules
Far from boosting the appetite for
liberalisation, heavy losses at
Kenya Airways, SAA and
EgyptAir three of Africas four
biggest airlines have only
pushed their governments further
into a protectionist mindset.
Until the Yamoussoukro Declaration is comprehensively enforced, foreign operators and
private-sector start-ups will continue to be excluded from Africas most lucrative opportunities. And in the absence of
competitive pressures, largescale success stories like Ethiopian Airlines will remain the
only exception.
IATAs prediction and Intervistas assessment undoubtedly
look tantalising on paper. But
with terrorism looming large
over the continent, and with
many governments determined
to protect their weak flag carriers, the forecasts for African aviation should be taken with a
dose of salt.

20 September 2015 | Airline Business Daily @ Routes | 21