Assignment 1

1. Analyze the Fortune 500 revenue growth patterns, considering each year data as individual box plot shown in Figure 1
The growth in the revenue for the fortune 500 companies has been significantly slow till 1971 and henceforth the growth has been
exponentially rising. The median as well as the maximum has been rising at a very rapid pace with almost 90 % of the companies falling out. On an
average every year 9-10 firm are displaced by new firms. The plot depicts a sharp growth in the no of outliners in term of revenue.

Reliance Petrol Case Analysis

2. Compare the RIL revenue data with Fortune 500 data through developing and testing of hypotheses.
Rev ( million
USD)
Max

Company
Fallout
rate

in 2013

463374.297

942922.2026

202.1077423

382.4904771

0.111601897

0.170751042

0.000942681

0.00116312

25%
Q1

8735 e^
0.071*450
60 e^
0.085*337.5
107e^0.085*22
5
321 e^ 0.084 *
112.5

Max
380

Q 3 - 75 %
285

Med
190

Q1 ( 25 % )
95

390

292.5

195

97.5

75 %
Q3
Med

No of
compani
es
No of
compani
es

in 2011

(500*.90)/56

8.035714286

LPG Storage Tank at the Refinery Tank Firm, Jamnagar

Submitted to: Prof. (Dr.) Sidhartha S Padhi, Assistant
Professor, IIM Kozhikode

Submitted by: Vivekananda Suaro,

EPGP-07-097

3. Suggest whether your hypotheses

explanation and statistical properties.

are

accepted

or

rejected

with

proper

In 2013 almost 110 companies have been outliers and if they consider the revenue of RIL (73,000 Million USD), it lies in the third quadrant
which clearly rejects the hypothesis that it is under first 50 fortunes companies.

4. Finally, set the target revenue of RIL for the coming years to satisfy its aspiration of
top 50 ranks in Fortune 500 rankings.
If RIL want wants to be in the first 50 ranker its definetly has to be an outlier and have a stupendous growth of 13 folds to 910 billion USD.

Assignment 2

1. Following Figure 2, draw cause and effect (fishbone) diagrams for each process of the
value chain and identify the bottlenecks in the whole crude oil value chain.

Following Figure 3, identify the decision variables in the RPC value chain process flow chart. Next, assuming different
probability distributions for each process, identify process bottlenecks, WIP, cycle time, and throughput of the RPC value
chain.
In the RPC there are 8 key decisions variable namely, the total crude processed, the decision on products like naphtha, LGP, propylene, reformate,
diesel, gasoline, coke. The individual output can be regulated by RIL based on demand in the market.
As there are insufficient data related to the production capacity of each unit in the RPC value chain, we could qualitatively draw a conclusion that
diesel hydro treater unit could be a bottlenecking. The demand for diesel is generally quite high in Indian market and incase if service level need to be
increase in peak demand season this could be a bottle neck for the RIL processing facility.

RELIANCE PETROLEUM
JAMNAGAR

YANAM

NAGOTHAMA

MUMBAI

VIZAG

31500
285500
317000

31500
274700
306200

28500
231500
260000

29500
264100
293600

25500
220700
246200

CASE Part A
Oil Field -ReF
ReF-DC
SUM

Comparing the cost of transportation at the five proposed location, we could derive that the minimal cost comes out to be that of Vizag.

RELIANCE PETROLEUM CASE STUDY

NAGOTHA
MA

MUMBAI

VIZAG

CASE Part A
Oil Field -ReF

28500

29500

ReF-DC

231500

264100

220700

SUM

260000

293600

246200

93000

127500

85500

353,000

421,100

331,700

Operating Cost

SUM

25500

Table 3: Production data for RPL

Refinary

Cruid Oil Req (MT / yr)

JAMNAGAR

33

YAMAN

Oil Field

Cruid Oil Prod (MT/Yr)

15

17

Patna-Mukta
Basin
Krishna-Godawri

NEWONE

15

Cambay Basin

10

Total

65

Total

50

Req Import

15

25

Cost per unit of transportation

JAMNAGAR

YAMAN

NAGOTHAMA

VIZAG

MUMBAI

Patna-Mukta Basin

30

50

60

40

40

Krishna-Godawri

60

60

40

20

60

Cambay Basin

60

80

40

50

40

OPEC

70

40

60

50

80

Table 5

Cost data for transporting finished product to a distribution center

Refinery

Potential

HAZIR
A

VADODRA

GANDH
A

NAGOTHAN
E

Jamnagar

65

55

60

80

Yanam

70

50

40

70

Nagothama

70

80

40

30

Vizag

80

60

30

20

Mumbai

50

40

30

70

100

80

80

100

Ns of Needed

Market Demand

(IN MT)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

42

43

47

52

53

55

59

( 10 Million of INR/MT )

Table 7 : Annual Operating Cost

Site

Annual Cost

Overal opr cost /yr

Nagothana

620

93000

Vizag

570

85500

Mumbai

850

127500

Market Demand

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

42

43

47

52

53

55

59

(IN MT)

FORECASTED
DEMAND
2014 201 2016
5
62
64
67

(IN MT)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007

(IN MT)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Market Demand
Year

Demand

Type

YOY G

2007

42

Actual D

2008

43

Actual D

2.38%

2009

47

Actual D

9.30%

2010

52

Actual D

10.64%

2011

53

Actual D

1.92%

2012

55

Actual D

3.77%

2013

59

Actual D

7.27%

2014

61.714

Forecast

4.60%

2015

64.607

Forecast

4.69%

2016

67.5

Forecast

4.48%

Regression Model
Demand = 38.57+2.893 * Number of Year
< Regression Analysis >
1) Developing Regression Model

2017

70.393

Forecast

4.29%

Fitted Line Plot

Demand = 38.57 + 2.893 Yrs
60

S
R-Sq
R-Sq(adj)

1.14330
97.3%
96.7%

Demand

55

50

45

40
1

Yrs

2) Analysis of Model
2.1) Strength of the model
R-Sq

97.2

Req R-Sq

76%

Jud

2.2) Analysis of Residual Error

Since R-Sq is more the 2/Rootn thus this model is effective to use.

REFINERY ESTABLISHED AT NAGOTHANE

Refineries
Unit Cost (10 millions/MT)

Oil
Fields

Patna-Mukta
Basin
KrishnaGodawri
Cambay Basin

JAMNAG
AR

OPEC

YAMAN

30

50

60

60

40

60

80

40

70

40

60

Shipment Quantity

JAMNAG
AR

Fields

60

Refineries

(MT)

Oil

NAGOTHA
MA

Patna-Mukta
Basin
KrishnaGodawri
Cambay Basin
OPEC
Total Received

Capacity

YAMAN

NAGOTHA
MA

TOTAL
SHIPPED

SUPPLY

15

15

15

18

25

25

10

10

10

15

15

15

33

17

15

<=

<=

<=

33

17

15

Total Cost

2850
Total Cost ( Million
INR)

28500

NAGOTHANE TO DC
Distribution Center

JAMNAGAR

HAZIR
A
65

VADOD
RA
55

GANDH
A
60

YAMAN

70

50

40

70

NAGOTHAMA

70

80

40

30

Unit Cost
($millions)
Refineries

Shipment
Quantity
(MT)

Refineries

NAGOTHAN
E
80

Distribution Center

JAMNAGAR

HAZIR
A
130

VADOD
RA
104

GANDH
A
0

NAGOTH
ANE
4

Shipped
Out
238

Shippend
In
238

YAMAN

104

18

122

NAGOTHAMA

108

108

Total Received

130

104

104

130

Total Cost

Demand 2013

100

80

80

100

($millions)

Demand 2016

130

104

104

130

23,150
231500

Total
Cost

7.
2

33

237.6

122

17

122.4

108

15

108

Combined
Total
Total demand
in 2016 (MT/yr)
65
assuming 360 unit
=50 MT/yr
Factor

1.3

L.A.

REFINERY ESTABLISHED AT MUMBAI

Refineries
Unit Cost (10
millions/MT)

Oil
Fields

PATNA-MUKTA
BASIN
KRISHNAGODAWRI
CAMBAY BASIN
OPEC

JAMNAG
AR
30

YAMAN

MUMBAI

50

40

60

60

60

60

80

40

70

40

80

Shipment Quantity

Refineries

(MT)

Oil
Fields

PATNA-MUKTA
BASIN
KRISHNAGODAWRI
CAMBAY BASIN
OPEC

JAMNAG
AR
15

YAMAN

MUMBAI

Total Shipped

15

15

18

25

25

10

10

10

15

15

15

Supply

Total Received

Capacity

33

17

15

<=

<=

<=

33

17

15

Total Cost

2950
Total Cost ( Million INR)

29500
MUMBAI TO DC
Distribution Center
Unit Cost ($millions)
Refineries

Jamnagar
Yaman

Mumbai

Shipment Quantity
(MT)
Refineries

Hazira
65
70
50

Vadodra
55
50
40

Gandha
60
40
30

Nagothane
80
70
70

Distribution Center

Hazira

Vadodra

Gandha

Nagothane

126
0
4.00000000
1

104
0
0

0
0
104

8
122
0

104
=
80

104
=
80

130
=
100

Total Cost

Demand

130
=
100

Demand 2016

130

104

104

130

26,410

Jamnagar
Yaman

Mumbai
Total Received

Shipped Out
238
122
108

=
=
=

Total Cost

Shippend In
238
122
108

264100
Combined
Cost (Mill INR )

293,600

Total demand in 2016

(MT/yr)
65
assuming 360 unit =50 MT/yr
Factor

1.3

REFINERY ESTABLISHED AT VIZAG

Refineries
Unit Cost (10
millions/MT)

JAMNAG
AR

YAMAN

VIZAG

30

50

40

60

60

20

Oil

Patna-Mukta
Basin
Krishna-Godawri

Fields

Cambay Basin

60

80

50

OPEC

70

40

50

Shipment Quantity

Refineries

(millions of barrels)

Oil

Patna-Mukta
Basin
Krishna-Godawri

Fields

Cambay Basin

JAMNAG
AR

YAMAN

VIZAG

Total Shipped

15

15

15

15

25

25

10

10

10

Supply

OPEC

15

Total Received

33

17

15

<=

<=

<=

33

17

15

Capacity

15

15

Total Cost

2550
Total Cost (Million INR)

25500

VIZAG TO DC
Distribution Center
Unit Cost (10 million /MT)
Jamnagar
Refineries

Yaman

Vizag

HAZIRA

VADODR
A

GAND
HA

NAGOTH
ANE

65
70
80

55
50
60

60
40
30

80
70
20

Shipment Quantity

Distribution Center

HAZIRA

VADODR
A

GAND
HA

NAGOTH
ANE

Shipped Out

Jamnagar

130

104

238

238

Yaman

104

18

122

122

Vizag

108

108

108

Total Received

130

104

104

130

Total Cost

100

80

80

100

($millions)

(MT)

Refineries

Demand

Shippend In

Demand 2016

130

104

104

130

22,070
Total
Cost

220700

Combined
Cost (Mill INR )

Total demand
in 2014
(MT/yr)
65

Factor

assuming 360 unit =50

MT/yr

1.3