Ranges (Up till 12.

10pm HKT)
Currency

120.255. Small fixing demand lifted the UsdJpy back to

forties but feels heavy, hearsay Japanese exporters sold.

Currency

EURUSD

1.11755-1.1215

EURJPY

134.595-90

USDJPY

120.255-60

EURGBP

0.7362-75

GBPUSD

1.5181-1.5210

USDSGD

1.4248-74

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9782-97
0.7010-35

USDTHB
USDKRW

36.18-27
Closed

NZDUSD

0.6358-0.6403

USDTWD

Closed

USDCAD

1.3322-43

USDCNH

6.3875-6.3975

AUDNZD

1.0985-1.1026

XAU

1145.4-1147.0

Key Headlines

Not an exciting start to the week. Hong Kong,

Taiwan and Korea markets are shut today for
Mid-Autumn Festival.

In Catalonia, with more than 97% of the vote

counted, the pro-independence parties have
emerged with an absolute majority of seats in
the regional parliament.

All eyes on Fridays US labour report. CIBC

Research said payrolls growth may have eased in
August, but the pace was still solid and more
than enough to see the unemployment rate fall
further. Our forecast is up 206k versus previous
173k.

Fed speakers this week. There are 3 today, New

York Fed President William Dudley kicks things
off early Monday morning, followed by Chicago
Fed President Charles Evans and San Francisco
Fed President John Williams at UCLA on
Economic Outlook. Chairwoman Yellen speaks
Wednesday afternoon at a community banking
conference hosted by the St. Louis Fed. She is
followed by Governor Lael Brainard. Williams
speaks again on Thursday and Vice Chairman
Stanley Fischer on Friday on Monetary Policy.

FX Flows
ESZ5 S&P 500 E-Mini Dec 2015 Futures contract was
sold at the open, on back of stops below 1910 level,
taking out Fridays low. This caused weaker Dow Futures
and then weak Nikkei open.

AudUsd traded sideways. We were given AudJpy by prop

account earlier but we got nowhere. Only thing is the
AudNzd cross continued to trade on the weak side. Keep
an eye on an Aussie option expiry on Wed Sept 30, strike
0.6900 with notional of more than Aud4bn.
Oil futures kicked off the weak softer and speculators
pointed fingers at China, where the August industrial
profits dropped 8.8% and the US crude stockpiles are
still almost 100 million barrels above the five-year
average for this time of the year. I think partly due to the
FT story that Enis 64,000-tonne oil platform is
undergoing final tests and will begin production
imminently.
Not a lot to pen on UsdCad traders said intraday
resistance at 1.3350 and prefer to build up longs on dip
to 1.3220-40; targeting 1.3500. Option strikes expiring
today; 1.3250 for about $600mio and 1.3400 about
$550mio.

Asians
A lot of intraday speculators were doing the USDCNH
rolling this morning due to the change in value date
between today and tomorrow. Spot/Next is about 80
pips today. This also caused the offshore spot USDCNH
weaker from opening. Support seen at 6.3725-50.
With oil futures weak and, according to one macro fund,
investors are not rolling over the MGS, thus UsdMyr will
stay supported. Please note, there are 2 MGS maturing,
totalling near Myr14.5bn, assume that 35% are foreign
owned.

Who said what

RBNZ Wheeler: NZ inflation has been lower

than he had preferred
RBNZ Wheeler: NZ economy performing better
than others
RBNZ Wheeler: Remains concerned about the
financial stability risks
Chinese Vice Premier Ma: China supports
stronger Euro
Chinese Vice Premier Ma: China is optimistic
recovery in Europe

An interesting chat with macro PM who does not think

this is a risk-off market. He said any risk off will be
idiosyncratic like say in Malaysia where MGS will not
rollover, thus UsdMyr will continue to climb. He likes
UsdCad higher basically on weaker crude price.

News & Data

Weak US equity futures instigated a move lower in

UsdJpy. It was holding around 120.47-57 and slipped to

FT: Arctic oil to start flowing from 5.6bn polar

platform

China Aug Industrial Profits fell 8.8% from

-2.9%

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

In an industry where everything is big, Goliat will take

some beating. Designed to weather the worst Arctic
storms and hold nearly a million barrels of crude, Enis
64,000-tonne oil platform is about to prove whether
money can be made in the worlds last unexplored
frontier. More than a decade after the company struck oil
in the Barents Sea, industry experts say the 5.6bn
platform, beset by delays and cost overruns, is
undergoing final tests and will begin production
imminently.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1fc80a82-62ce-11e59846-de406ccb37f2.html#axzz3mzFZMWwl
WSJ: Why Volkswagens Problems Dont Include
China
Volkswagen has been rocked by a diesel-emissions
scandal that has shaken its executive suite and prompted
investigations by governments around the world. But
there is one place where the German company so far
remains untouched: China, where diesel fuel is mainly
for trucks only. Regulators have been silent, and
Volkswagen has declined to answer questions about the
China market. But so far the diesel-emissions scandal
hasnt involved any of the products Volkswagen makes
with its joint-venture partners in its biggest single
market.
FT: Saudi Arabia withdraws overseas funds
Saudi Arabia has withdrawn tens of billions of dollars
from global asset managers as the oil-rich kingdom seeks
to cut its widening deficit and reduce exposure to volatile
equities markets amid the sustained slump in oil prices.
Sama has over the years built up a broad range of
institutions handling its funds, including other names
such as Aberdeen Asset Management, Fidelity, Invesco
and Goldman Sachs. BlackRock, which bankers describe
as the manager handling the largest amount of Gulf
funds, has already reported net outflows from Europe,
the Middle East and Africa.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f2eb94c-62ac-11e5a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3mzFZMWwl
Telegraph: How Sweden's negative interest rates
experiment has turned economics on its head
As central bank rates have turned negative, the rates
offered on bank deposits have followed. Yet rather than
stuffing cash under mattresses, people have left their
money in the bank or spent it. Nowhere is the
experiment with negative rates more obvious than
among Nordic central banks. Sweden the first to
dabble with negative rates is perhaps the prime
candidate for such experimentation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/118950
84/How-Swedens-negative-interest-rates-experimenthas-turned-economics-on-its-head.html

Guardian: UK interest rate rise unlikely until

May 2016, CEBR forecasts
The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates on
hold until the middle of next year rather than raising
them sooner, following a gloomier outlook for the global
economy, according to the economic forecaster CEBR.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research now
believes a rise in May or August 2016 is more likely than
one in February, its previous prediction. Signs of a global
economic slowdown have been growing in recent weeks,
especially in the worlds second-largest economy China
and emerging markets. This is likely to stay the Banks
hand despite reasonable growth rates in the UK, with the
CEBR warning that the UKs performance may not be
sustainable if economies elsewhere continue to struggle.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/28/uk
-interest-rate-rise-unlikely-may-2016-cebr?
CMP=twt_gu
Telegraph: Volkswagen suffers as buyers
abandon its debt
The European Central Bank is believed to have stopped
buying VW bonds from the firm which are backed by car
loans, which it had been buying as part of its quantitative
easing package. Private investors are also dropping out
of the market, in a sign that they fear for VWs financial
health.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/carmanufacturers/volkswagen/11894667/Volkswagensuffers-as-buyers-abandon-its-debt.html
Roger Bootle in The Telegraph: France's Macron
is wrong to think fiscal union is solution to
eurozone's woes
You have to hand it to Monsieur Macron, the French
economy minister. Last week he said: If we dont move
forward, we are deciding the dismantling of the
eurozone. He wants member states to set up a common
eurozone treasury, headed by a single finance minister.
Member states would contribute a part of their tax
revenues to this treasury and it would disperse funds
across the union. A eurozone parliament would act as a
political watchdog and overseer. In other words, this
would be a form of political and fiscal union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/1189460
0/Frances-Macron-is-wrong-to-think-fiscal-union-issolution-to-eurozones-woes.html
WSJ: Exit Poll Indicates Separatists Win
Majority of Seats in Catalan Election
An exit poll suggested that separatists in the wealthy
Catalonia region won a parliamentary majority in a
regional election largely viewed as a referendum on
independencethough it was unclear whether they
would have a strong enough mandate to break away
from Spain. A high voter turnout in Sundays election

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

gave the two main separatist slates a combined total of

between 74 and 79 of 135 seats in the Catalan
parliament, enough to win a majority, according to an
exit poll by Ipsos Consulting. To make good on its plan
to split from Spain, Together for Yes would need the help
of the Popular Unity Candidacy or CUP, a smaller,
radical-left, pro-independence party that got between 11
and 13 seats, the exit poll indicated.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/catalans-cast-votes-inelection-that-could-trigger-move-toward-secession1443347101
Nikkei: Worries grow that China's slowdown will
hurt Japanese companies
Concern is rising in corporate Japan over the impact of
the Chinese economic slowdown, a Nikkei survey of top
managers at 148 major Japanese companies shows. The
quarterly survey was taken from Sept. 2 to Sept. 24,
when data revealed that the Chinese economy was
clearly decelerating. A whopping 64.1% of the managers
said it would have a negative impact on their companies.
Only around 20% expected no impact.
http://asia.nikkei.com/PoliticsEconomy/Economy/Worries-grow-that-China-sslowdown-will-hurt-Japanese-companies
The Australian: ALP faces $57bn hit to budget
The Coalition will today step up its attack on Labor over
more than $10 billion in new spending measures
announced since the budget, claiming that the
opposition now faces a $57bn budget black hole and a
raft of unfunded policies. But as the government seeks to
capitalise on a lead in the polls sparked by the leadership
change to Malcolm Turnbull and turns its attack to
Labors economic credibility, Scott Morrison faces calls
to further tighten government spending and pursue
wide-ranging tax reform that increases revenue.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationalaffairs/treasury/alp-faces-57bn-hit-to-budget/storyfn59nsif-1227546485091
Kathimerini: Washington guided Greece in
bailout talks, envoy reveals
Washington had advised the previous SYRIZAIndependent Greeks government not to clash head-on
with Germany and to show a willingness for reform in
the weeks and months leading up to the July 13
agreement on a third bailout between Greece and its
lenders.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/201954/article/ekathime
rini/news/washington-guided-greece-in-bailout-talksenvoy-reveals

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.