Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis of Third Grade Reading Proficiency

Serita Theresa Wheeler

Mississippi State University
March 24, 2015

Contents
Introduction....................................................................................................................................3
Third Grade Reading Policies.....................................................................................................4
Mississippi....................................................................................................................................5
Data and Explanation of Variables..............................................................................................6
Figures and Tables.........................................................................................................................9

Tables and Figure

Figure 1 Geographic Distribution of Student Poverty in Mississippi..............................................9

Figure 2: Geographic Distribution of African American Students................................................10
Figure 3 Third Grade Reading Proficiency....................................................................................11
Figure 4 Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation....................................................................12
Figure 5 Moran's I..........................................................................................................................13
Figure 6 LISA Significance...........................................................................................................14
Table 1 Descriptive Statistics.........................................................................................................15
Table 2 Spatial Regression Models................................................................................................15

Introduction
Third grade is the year students begin to use reading for more complex learning, or the
year when children shift from learning to read to reading to learn. Third grade reading
proficiency is the most predictive indicator of academic and career success. Failure to achieve
third grade reading proficiency, on the other hand, is a significant predictor of dropping out and
delayed high school completion as well as criminogenic behavior (Hernandez, 2012; Moffitt &
Caspi, 2001; Rose & Schimke, 2012; Workman, 2014). Students that fail to meet third grade
reading proficiency are four times less likely to finish high school on time than proficient readers
(Rose & Schimke, 2012). 23 percent of below-basic readers drop out or face delayed
completion compared to 9 percent of basic and 4 percent of proficient readers (Hernandez,
2012). The effects of low reading achievement are exacerbated by poverty. 22 percent of
children that have lived in poverty and 32 percent of students that have spent more than half their
childhood in poverty do not graduate from high school (Hernandez, 2012).
The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) adopted its policy on setting
achievement levels in 1990. The policy was updated in 1995, defining the proficiency as:
[Representing] solid academic performance for each grade assessed.
Students reaching this level have demonstrated competency over
challenging subject matter, including subject-matter knowledge,
application of such knowledge to real world situations, and analytical
skills appropriate to the subject matter (National Assessment Governing
Board, 1995).
Currently proficiency measures vary by state. No states proficiency level reaches
NAEPs proficiency level (238). Massachusetts has the highest and closest to NAEP standard

(232), while Mississippi has the least rigorous literacy standard (163) (Paulson, 2009).
Nationally, only 33% of fourth grade students read proficiently, and the majority of students of
all ethnicities except Asians read at the below-proficient achievement level when assessed in
2009 (The Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2010). For low income students the outcomes are even
worse, with racial and ethnic disparities intensifying the effects. Almost all low-income Black,
Hispanic, and Native American students (89%, 87%, and 85%) and an overwhelming majority of
low-income White and Asian students (76% and 70%) score at the below-proficient reading
achievement level (Hernandez, 2012).
Third Grade Reading Policies
In response to the low reading achievement crisis, states are developing initiatives to
address third grade reading proficiency. These policies tend to focus on three objectives; the
early identification of reading difficulty, intervention as close to the point of need as possible,
and retention (Rose & Schimke, 2012). 36 states and the District of Columbia have policies in
place to assess reading proficiency identify students with reading deficiencies. 33 States and the
District of Columbia require interventions to address reading deficiencies. These include;
instruction outside of school hours1, supplemental instruction, summer school and summer
reading programs, tutoring, need-specific tailored instruction, development and implementation
of academic improvement plans, implementation of home reading programs, reassignment to
different teachers, involvement of reading specialists, online or computer based instruction, and
transition classes. Finally, 16 states and the District of Columbia require retention of third
graders unable to achieve grade-level proficiency, three of these permit retention based on the
recommendation of a teacher, parent, or superintendent. Parents of students in 24 states and the

1 Including extended day and extended year.

4

District of Columbia will be notified of students reading need, interventions to address the need,
and the possibility of retention (Workman, 2014).
Mississippi
Mississippi has the highest child poverty rate in the United States and ranks 49th in child wellbeing (The Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2013). 35% of Children in Mississippi live in poverty;
and 28% of all children in Mississippi live in high-poverty areas, both risk factors for low
reading achievement (Hernandez, 2012; McGraw, 2013; Mississippi KIDS COUNT, 2015).
Similar to all states, poverty in Mississippi is geographically distributed (see
Figure 1). A wealth of research shows that residential segregation and concentrated poverty
contribute to geographies of exclusions and opportunity (Lichter & Parisi, 2008; Squires &
Kubrin, 2005; Tate, 2008). African American southerners living in rural areas face profound
economic oppression and racial discrimination (Lichter & Parisi, 2008). In Mississippi, the
poorest districts also have the highest concentration of African American students (see Figure 2).
Living in one of the most underdeveloped regions of the United States, students and their parents
are among the least likely to experience upward mobility (Burd-Sharps, Lewis, & Martins, 2009;
Lichter & Parisi, 2008; Porter & Purser, 2008). For instance, Jefferson County School District is
over 90% African American and is located in the second least developed county in the United
States (Porter & Purser, 2008). The national conversation about poverty tends to focus on urban
poverty while poverty of the rural Southwest, Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta, and Indian
reservations remain invisible. Lichter and Parisi (2008) found that three-fourths of rural African
Americans are segregated from largely affluent white populations.
Currently, 49.1% of students read below the proficient achievement level with 17.1%
reading at the minimal level and 31.6% reading at the basic level (Mississippi Department of
Education, 2015). In 2013 Mississippi Senate Bill 2347 was signed into law. Commonly
referred to as the Third Grade Reading Gate, Senate Bill 2347 (SB2347) establishes the
5

Literacy Based Promotion Act. The goal is to improve reading outcomes for students in
kindergarten through third grade so that all public school students in Mississippi are reading at or
above grade level. District must provide intensive reading instruction as well as implement an
intervention in students that substantial reading deficiencies (S.2347, 2013). Districts will also be
required to notify parents of students reading progress and retain students failing to read at grade
level by third grade (S. 2347, 2013). In February 2015, the senate postponed implementation of
the retention policy over concerns that both funding and resources are not sufficient for the
pending accountability regime (Pender, 2015)
Data and Explanation of Variables
For this study I constructed a panel dataset with enrollment data, finance data,
demographics, and student outcomes for seniors graduating in 2012, the most recent cohort of
students with all data available. The students ACT scores, second through fourth grade
Mississippi Curriculum Test (MCT) scores were downloaded from the Mississippi Department of
Education Office of Research and Statistics. Demographics for the 2006-2007 school year, the
approximate midpoint were also downloaded. The percent of students eligible for free and
reduced lunch was used as a proxy measure for student poverty. Two schools were excluded
from the study. Mississippi School for the Deaf and Mississippi School for the Blind are exempt
from testing. Clay County high school attend West Point High School and their ACT scores are
included with West Point School Districts.
Once the spreadsheets were obtained from the Mississippi Department of education
website, database software was used to combine the data into a single dataset. Statistics software
was then used to generate descriptive statistics and regression models. Finally, Geographic
Information Systems software was used to join and geocode the student data. The 2010 US
6

Census TigerLine Shapefile for Mississippi School Districts was joined with the student data to
geocode the outcomes.
The dependent variable in this student is G3RPP- Percent of third graders reading at the
proficient level. The independent variables are Student Poverty measured by students
eligibility for free and reduced lunch, district poverty, measured by local revenue used to fund
the district, percent of black students, and the average salary of elementary school teachers.
Multiple analyses were conducted to test the spatial relationship between third grade
reading outcomes, race and poverty. First descriptive statistics were used to explore and identify
patterns. The results are displayed in Table 1. Next GIS software was used to map third grade
reading proficiency (Figure 3) and to examine the significance of spatial clusters witth high and
low student proficiency. The most frequently used indicator of distance and commonalities is the
Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation statistic (LISA). Morans I, the outcome, is expressed
below.

i j ij ( i )( X j X )
N
2
i j ij
i ( i X )

Results
The Morans I statistic tests against the null hypothesis of random dispersion. A positive
Morans I statistic indicates spatial/geographical clustering. For students scoring below the
proficient achievement level (basic or minimal), Morans I is positive (.184855, p<.001);
therefore we must reject the null hypothesis of random dispersion.

Burd-Sharps, S., Lewis, K., & Martins, E. B. (2009). A Portrait of Mississippi: Mississippi
Human Development Report 2009. Brooklyn: American Human Development Project.
Hernandez, D. J. (2012). Double Jeopardy: How Third-Grade Reading Skills and Poverty
Influence High School Graduation. Baltimore, MD.
Lichter, D. T., & Parisi, D. (2008). Concentrated Rural Poverty and the Geography of Exclusion
The Carsey Institute Reports on Rural America. Durham, NH: Carsey Institute.
McGraw, J. (2013). Mississippis child poverty rate is twice as high as Lithuanias. Why are we
OK with that? The Hechinger Report. New York: Columbia University.
Mississippi KIDS COUNT. (2015). Mississippi Kids Count: 2015 Fact Book. Mississippi State:
Mississippi State University, Social Science Research Center.
Moffitt, T. E., & Caspi, A. (2001). Childhood predictors differentiate life-course persistent and
adolescence-limited antisocial pathways among males and females. Development and
Psychopathology, 13(02), 355-375. doi: doi:null
National Assessment Governing Board. (1995). Developing Student Performance Levels for the
National Assessment of Educational Progress.
Paulson, A. (2009). Student 'Proficiency': What is Your State's Definition? Christian Science
Monitor.
Pender, G. (2015). House Puts Halt to Third Grade Reading Gate. Clarion Ledger. Retrieved
from http://www.clarionledger.com/story/politicalledger/2015/02/10/house-readingamendment/23196221/
Porter, J. R., & Purser, C. W. (2008). Measuring relative sub-national human development: An
application of the United Nations Human Development Index using geographic
information systems. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 33, 253-269.
Rose, S., & Schimke, K. (2012). Third Grade Literacy Policies: Identificaiton, Intervention,
Retention. Denver, CO.
Squires, G. D., & Kubrin, C. E. (2005). Privileged Places: Race, Uneven Development and
Geography of Opportunity in Urban America. Urban Studies, 47-68.
Tate, W. F. (2008). "Geography of Opportunity": Poverty Place, and Educational Outcomes.
Educational Researcher, 37(7), 397-411.
The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2010). Early Warning! Why Reading by the End of third Grade
Matters. In L. Feister (Ed.). Baltimore, MD.
The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2013). Kids Count Data Book: State Trends in Child WellBeing. Baltimore.
Workman, E. (2014). Third-grade Reading Policies Reading/Literacy: Preschool to Third Grade.
Denver, CO: Education Commission of the States.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1 Geographic Distribution of Student Poverty in Mississippi

10

Figure 2: Geographic Distribution of African American Students

11

Figure 3 Third Grade Reading Proficiency

12

Figure 4 Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation

13

14

Figure 5 Moran's I

15

Figure 6 LISA Significance

16

Table 1 Descriptive Statistics

Percent Reading at or Above

the Proficient Achievement
Level
Average Elementary
Teacher's Salary
Total Revenue from Local
Sources
Percent of Students African
American
Percent of Students Eligible
for Free and Reduced Lunch
Valid N (listwise)

Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum Maximum
149
40.00
96.60
46181.00

Mean
76.5886

Std. Deviation
12.92940

39577.9597

1952.91803

149

32289.00

149

750232.62 87297352.29 7528680.8445 11290630.48064

149

.03

.99

.5603

.31341

149

.21

1.00

.6511

.21687

149

Table 2 Spatial Regression Models

Spatial Regression Models of Third Grade Reading Proficiency
Reduced
OLS
Spatial Lag
Spatial Error
Independent Variables
OLS Model Model
Model
model
Percent Eligible for Free
Lunch
Percent Black
Local Revenue
Average Elementary Teacher
Salary
Measures of Fit
Likelihood
AIC
BIC
Spatial Dependence
Moran's I

-44.16362

-14.43121

-1.44E+01

-1.68E+01

-20.62222
4.03E-08

-2.31E+01
5.97E-08

-1.84E+01
3.94E-08

0.001315

0.001365093

0.001331807

-533.002
1070
1076.01

-514.766
1039.53
1054.55

-511.384
1034.77
1052.79

-509.304718
1028.61
1043.63

-0.0027

-1.2702

17