Edmonton Police Service: R15-237 - Oil Prices vs.

Crime Rates
Request: R15-237 - Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht
Data as of October 1, 2015 23:59 for the time period January 1, 2013 - August 31, 2015
Table 1: Eight Crime Occurrence Indicators, Property Occurrence Indicators, WTI Oil Prices and Unemployment Rates, 20132015 YTD (as of August 31)

Time

Eight Crime
Occurrence
Indicators (1)

WTI Oil Prices

(U.S $)(2)

Edmonton CMA
Unemployment
Rate(3)

Property
Occurrence
Indicators(1)

Jan-2013
Feb-2013
Mar-2013
Apr-2013
May-2013
Jun-2013
Jul-2013
Aug-2013
Sep-2013
Oct-2013
Nov-2013
Dec-2013
Jan-2014
Feb-2014
Mar-2014
Apr-2014
May-2014
Jun-2014
Jul-2014
Aug-2014
Sep-2014
Oct-2014
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
Jul-2015
Aug-2015

1692
1471
1552
1706
2004
1976
2196
2079
1932
1842
1544
1525
1660
1396
1546
1756
1916
1991
2204
2188
2124
2114
1931
1883
2019
1751
2040
2009
2217
2353
2321
2324

94.76
95.31
92.94
92.02
94.51
95.77
104.67
106.57
106.29
100.54
93.86
97.63
94.62
100.82
100.8
102.07
102.18
105.79
103.59
96.54
93.21
84.4
75.79
59.29
47.22
50.58
47.82
54.45
59.27
59.82
50.9
42.87

4.3
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.7
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.5
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.3
5.8
6.3
5.9
5.7
5.5

1118
975
986
1160
1374
1371
1553
1432
1331
1268
988
994
1059
902
984
1227
1280
1380
1572
1583
1521
1452
1308
1266
1356
1169
1363
1349
1558
1696
1628
1659

Property
Occurrence
Indicators
divided by
10 (4)
111.8
97.5
98.6
116
137.4
137.1
155.3
143.2
133.1
126.8
98.8
99.4
105.9
90.2
98.4
122.7
128
138
157.2
158.3
152.1
145.2
130.8
126.6
135.6
116.9
136.3
134.9
155.8
169.6
162.8
165.9

Eight Crime
Occurrence
Indicators
divided by
10 (4)
169.2
147.1
155.2
170.6
200.4
197.6
219.6
207.9
193.2
184.2
154.4
152.5
166
139.6
154.6
175.6
191.6
199.1
220.4
218.8
212.4
211.4
193.1
188.3
201.9
175.1
204
200.9
221.7
235.3
232.1
232.4

Edmonton CMA
Unemployment
Rate multiplied
(4)
by 10
43
45
45
46
45
45
47
52
52
53
52
55
54
49
47
49
54
56
54
53
54
53
52
48
48
48
53
58
63
59
57
55

Source:
(1)

Crime Indicators sourced from Cognos Query Report, IBM Cognos Query Studio - R15-237 - Oil Prices vs. Crime - Rod Knecht, Data as of
2015 October 1

Eight Crime Indicators:

a) Include Reportable Occurrences. The occurrence is reportable when a police report has been submitted.
b) Exclude occurrences with "unfounded" clearance status. An occurrence is unfounded if after a police investigation, it is
concluded that no violation of the law took place nor was attempted (PRCU Manual, 2014)
c) Eight Crime Indicators contain four violent indicators: Assault, Robbery, Homicide, Sexual Assault and four property
indicators: Break and Enter, Theft of Vehicle, Theft from Vehicle and Theft over $5000.
(2)

WTI Oil Prices sourced from U.S Energy Information Association website
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=M
R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results

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(3)

Unemployment Rate sourced from Statistics Canada, Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area
based on 2011 Census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly(1,2,3)
(4)
These measures were either divided by 10 or multiplied by 10 to show their relative comparison in a chart.

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results

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Results:
Chart 1:

1) There is an upward trend of the eight crime occurrence indicators and property indicators since October 2014.
2) The eight crime occurrence indicators have a seasonality where crime increases in summer months and decreases in
winter months.

Chart 1: Eight Crime Indicators and Property Indicators 20132015 YTD

# of Occurrences

2500
2000
1500
1000
500

Eight Crime Occurrence Indicators (1)

Aug-2015

Jul-2015

Jun-2015

Apr-2015

May-2015

Mar-2015

Jan-2015

Feb-2015

Dec-2014

Nov-2014

Oct-2014

Sep-2014

Jul-2014

Aug-2014

Jun-2014

Apr-2014

May-2014

Feb-2014

Mar-2014

Jan-2014

Dec-2013

Oct-2013

Nov-2013

Sep-2013

Jul-2013

Jun-2013

Aug-2013

Apr-2013

May-2013

Mar-2013

Feb-2013

Jan-2013

Property Occurrence Indicators(1)

Chart 2:

1) There has been a decreasing trend in oil prices since July 2014.

Chart 2: WTI Monthly Oil Prices

2013-2015 YTD
120
100
80
60
40
20

Aug-2015

Jul-2015

Jun-2015

May-2015

Apr-2015

Mar-2015

Feb-2015

Jan-2015

Dec-2014

Nov-2014

Oct-2014

Sep-2014

Aug-2014

Jul-2014

Jun-2014

Apr-2014

May-2014

Mar-2014

Feb-2014

Jan-2014

Dec-2013

Nov-2013

Oct-2013

Sep-2013

Aug-2013

Jul-2013

Jun-2013

May-2013

Apr-2013

Feb-2013

Mar-2013

Jan-2013

WTI Oil Prices (U.S $)(2)

Chart 3:

1) The Edmonton CMA unemployment rate reached 6.3% in May 2015. This was the highest unemployment rate in
Edmonton CMA since January 2013.

Chart 3: Edmonton CMA Unemployment Rate

2013-2015 YTD

Aug-2015

Jul-2015

Jun-2015

May-2015

Apr-2015

Mar-2015

Feb-2015

Jan-2015

Dec-2014

Nov-2014

Oct-2014

Sep-2014

Aug-2014

Jul-2014

Jun-2014

May-2014

Apr-2014

Mar-2014

Feb-2014

Jan-2014

Dec-2013

Oct-2013

Nov-2013

Sep-2013

Jul-2013

Aug-2013

Jun-2013

Apr-2013

May-2013

Mar-2013

Feb-2013

Jan-2013

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Edmonton CMA Unemployment Rate(3)

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results

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Chart 4:

1) In the period of decreasing oil prices and increasing unemployment (the unemployment rate in May 2015 reached
6.3%), the eight crime occurrence indicators have increased each month since October 2014.
2) The eight crime occurrence indicators have a seasonality where crime increases in summer months and decreases in
winter months.
3) In addition to the consistent month by month increases in the eight crime occurrence indicators since October 2014, the
2015 seasonal low point and seasonal high point are both higher than in previous years.

Chart 4: Oil Prices, Unemployment Rate and Crime Rates

2013-2015 YTD (5)
250

Seasonal High
Seasonal High

Seasonal High
200

Seasonal Low
150

Seasonal Low
100

50

WTI Oil Prices (U.S $)(2)

Aug-2015

Jul-2015

Jun-2015

May-2015

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Mar-2015

Jan-2015

Dec-2014

Nov-2014

Oct-2014

Sep-2014

Aug-2014

Jul-2014

Jun-2014

May-2014

Apr-2014

Feb-2014

Mar-2014

Jan-2014

Dec-2013

Nov-2013

Oct-2013

Sep-2013

Aug-2013

Jul-2013

Jun-2013

May-2013

Apr-2013

Feb-2013

Mar-2013

Jan-2013

Eight Crime Occurrence Indicators divided by 10(4)

Edmonton CMA Unemployment Rate multiplied by 10(4)

(5)

Chart 4: Unemployment Rate multiplied by 10 and Crime Rates divided by 10 in order for comparison purposes

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results

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