Megawatt Daily

[ELECTRIC POWER ]
www.platts.com
MEGAWATT DAILY
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
www.twitter.com/plattspower
DC, Exelon reach agreement for Pepco merger

District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser said
Tuesday Washington DC has reached an agreement
with Exelon in the Chicago companys quest to merge with Pepco
Holdings that includes a $78 million investment in the capital
city, five times more than originally offered.
Bowser said during a news briefing that she kept the
negotiations with Exelon alive after the Public Service
Commission rejected the initial offer in hopes of reaching an
agreement that put DC ratepayers first.
The deal promotes sustainability, energy efficiency and the
development of solar and wind generation, initiatives that those
opposing the deal said would fall by the wayside if a generation
company took over the purely distribution DC utility.
The agreement includes $17 million to further the energy
MERGERS
(continued on page 17)
Spark spreads vary amid drop in power prices

Spark spread movements have varied by region
following a drop in both gas and power prices as factors
like renewables and weather have impacted margins earned by
generators.
Based on gas and power prices at 13 major electricity
trading hubs across the US, the simple average October spark
spread is down $5.17/MWh from September and $10.51/MWh
from August.
Power prices at those hubs year to date have averaged about
$40/MWh, down 35% from the same period in 2014.
Henry Hub natural gas prices have averaged $2.78/MMBtu year
to date, 39% below the same period in 2014. Prices there recently
hit their lowest level since early 2012, $2.26/MMBtu.
BENTEK
ANALYSIS
Generators lobby for portfolio netting rule

The PJM Interconnections markets and reliability
committee have been asked to consider taking action
to resolve problems with the penalties built into the grid
operators capacity performance rules.
Robert OConnell, a consultant who represents a group of
generation developers, transmission owners and others has
proposed allowing generation owners who have units that over
perform during a capacity performance period and units that
underperform to offset each other without incurring a penalty.
Its a way to use a generation portfolio to manage the risk of
underperforming, OConnell said Tuesday in an interview. He
calls it portfolio netting.
Penalties can be high, up to $1,800/MWh plus another $3,500/
MWh under certain circumstances if a unit trips, without much
MARKET
DESIGN
Price trends at key trading points ($/MWh)

60
ISONE Hub
PJM West
Indiana Hub
ERCOT North
SP15
50
40
30
20
10
07-Sep
13-Sep
19-Sep
25-Sep
01-Oct
07-Oct
Source: Platts
Low and high average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

ISONE
NYISO
PJM
MISO
ERCOT
SPP
CAISO
On-peak low
39.44
18.17
27.86
24.06
25.27
21.27
35.89
On-peak high
41.53
50.29
44.86
36.92
28.50
27.18
38.25
Off-peak low
23.58
8.96
20.44
13.63
15.12
14.35
26.93
Off-peak high
24.06
28.22
26.88
22.80
15.51
19.51
27.36
Note: Lows and highs for each ISO are for various hubs and zones. A full listing of average
LMPs are available for the hubs and zones inside this issue.
Day-ahead bilateral indexes and spark spreads for Oct 7

Index
Marginal
heat rate
@7k
Spark spreads
@8k
@10k @12k
Southeast
Southern, Into
Florida
28.00
34.00
12056
14719
11.74
17.83
9.42
15.52
4.78
10.90
0.13
6.28
-6.84
-0.65
Northwest
Mid-C
COB
23.46
24.98
10603
10744
7.97
8.71
5.76
6.38
1.34
1.73
-3.09
-2.92
-9.73
-9.90
Southwest
Palo Verde
Mead
23.68
26.50
10120
10950
7.30
9.56
4.96
7.14
0.28
2.30
-4.40
-2.54
-11.42
-9.80
@15k
Note: All indexes are on-peak. Spark spreads are reported in ($) and Marginal heat rates in
(Btu/kWh). A full listing of bilateral indexes and marginal heat rates are inside this issue.
Inside this Issue

Wind, dirt cheap gas stifle Central power prices
Michigan PSC study touts energy efficiency savings
NV Energy lowers rates as wholesale prices fall
Oncor deal, ERCOT fee hike on PUC agenda
EIA forecasts drop in winter heating expenditure
12
13
14
15
15
MEGAWATT DAILY
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2015
ISONE & NYISO nuclear generation outages (GW)
NORTHEAST MARKETS
3000
2015
2500
Mass Hub steady in mid-$30s/MWh
2014
2013
22-Aug
6-Sep
2000
Northeast dailies were mixed Tuesday amid stable demand

projections and higher spot natural gas prices.
Mass Hub on-peak prices for Wednesday delivery tacked on 75
cents to about $35.50/MWh on the IntercontinentalExchange.
Mass Hub day-ahead off-peak slipped $1.25 to about $23.75/
MWh, however.
The ISO New England predicted demand to peak at around
15,350 MW both Tuesday and Wednesday before slipping to
about 14,825 MW Thursday.
Algonquin Gas Transmission city-gates spot gas climbed 6.3
cents to $2.953/MMBtu.
Boston temperatures were forecast about 5 degrees above
average Wednesday, with a high of 71 degrees expected.
Daily locational marginal prices were higher across New York
as both spot gas prices and demand outlook rose amid aboveaverage temperature forecasts.
New York ISO Zone G Hudson Valley day-ahead on-peak LMPs
gained $1.75 to around $34.25/MWh for Wednesday delivery.
Zone J New York City day-ahead on-peak rose $2.25 to roughly
$34.75/MWh. Zone A West day-ahead on-peak was about $40.25
after climbing $9.25.
Transco Zone 6 New York spot natural gas rose 11.7 cents to
$2.397/MMBtu, helping to support power prices.
The New York ISO predicted peakload near 18,500 MW
Tuesday, 18,650 MW Wednesday and 18,450 MW Thursday.
Temperature highs in New York state were forecast as much as
8 degrees above normal in the mid-60s to mid-70s Wednesday.
Northeast term power was mixed Tuesday afternoon as both
NYMEX gas futures and regional gas basis strengthened.
In New England, Mass Hub on-peak November fell 50 cents to
$56.50/MWh on the IntercontinentalExchange around 2:30 pm
EDT. Mass Hub on-peak December added 25 cents to around $69/
MWh, while the on-peak January-February contract lost 25 cents
to $89.25/MWh.
In New York, Zone G on-peak November financial futures
dropped more than 50 cents to $45/MWh. Zone A on-peak
November added 25 cents to $35.75/MWh on ICE, still nearly $10
below contract prices seen in October 2014.
NYMEX November gas futures tacked on 2 cents to around
$2.47/MMBtu. Algonquin city-gate November gas basis edged up
0.7 cents to $2.858/MMBtu and Transco Zone 6 NY November gas
basis gained 5 cents to 20 cents/MMBtu.
1500
1000
500
0
8-Jul
23-Jul
7-Aug
21-Sep
6-Oct
Source: NRC
Northeast spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

6
Iroquois zone 2
Transco zone 6 N.Y.
Algonquin city-gates
5
4
3
2
1
24-Aug
01-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
Source: Platts
Northeast load and generation mix forecast (GWh)

Actual
05-Oct
ISONE
Load
313
Generation
Coal
3
Gas
149
Nuclear
46
NYISO
Load
420
Generation
Coal
11
Gas
125
Nuclear
135
% Chg
%Chg Year-ago
Forecast
06-Oct 07-Oct 08-Oct 09-Oct 10-Oct
12
341
334
316
308
282
688
12
0
28
11
-10
5
163
46
6
157
48
5
141
56
5
130
68
5
122
81
23
409
404
400
398
362
58
-4
0
-24
25
6
11
154
135
11
148
135
11
136
135
11
132
135
12
124
135
Source: Bentek
Daily generation outage references

MO unplanned maintenance outage
RF
refueling outage
PMO planned maintenance outage
Unk
unknown
OA
offline/available
Fuels: Nuclear=n; Coal=c; Natural gas=g; Hydro=h ; Wind=w
Sources: Generation owners, public information and other market sources.
Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
MEGAWATT DAILY
ISONE day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Northeast Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Oct 6 ($/MWh)
Average
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
41.31
41.30
41.53
41.05
41.44
40.91
39.44
41.24
41.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.01
0.00
0.17
0.15
0.38
-0.10
0.29
-0.24
-1.68
0.11
0.09
6.20
6.41
6.24
6.12
6.25
6.05
5.70
6.23
6.10
31.51
31.34
31.79
31.45
31.56
31.59
30.71
31.57
31.20
14542
14686
14618
14449
14587
14400
14446
15106
15103
23.99
23.87
24.05
23.87
24.06
23.95
23.58
24.00
23.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.06
-0.06
0.12
-0.06
0.13
0.02
-0.35
0.08
-0.25
-6.13
-6.13
-6.13
-6.26
-6.12
-5.92
-5.87
-6.04
-6.12
20.85
20.77
20.93
20.83
20.88
20.79
20.42
20.78
20.50
8365
8336
8386
8323
8388
8350
8582
8736
8618
On-peak
Internal Hub
Connecticut
NE Mass-Boston
SE Mass
West-Central Mass
Rhode Island
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Prompt month: Nov 15

Mass Hub
N.Y. Zone G
N.Y. Zone J
N.Y. Zone A
Ontario*
On-peak
Off-peak
56.25
45.00
46.95
35.55
20.65
43.00
32.15
33.00
22.50
12.90
*Ontario prices are in Canadian dollars
N.Y. Zone G: Forward curve on-peak ($/MWh)

100
Off-Peak
80
60
40
20
0
No
v-1
De 5
c-1
Ja 5
nMa 16
y-1
Ju 6
n-1
6
S
Ja ep-1
n/
6
F
Ma ebr/A 16
Ju pr-1
l/A
6
ug
-16
Q4
Ma -16
y-1
Ju 7
n-1
7
S
Ja ep-1
n/
7
Ma Febr/A 17
Ju pr-1
l/A
7
ug
-1
Q4 7
-1
Ca 7
l-1
Ca 6
l-1
Ca 7
l-1
Ca 8
l-1
9
Internal Hub
Connecticut
NE Mass-Boston
SE Mass
West-Central Mass
Rhode Island
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
N.Y. Zone G: Marginal heat rate on-peak (Btu/kWh)

35000
Month 1
Month 2
30000
NYISO day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Average
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
33.27
32.65
34.19
31.95
34.20
50.29
34.23
31.04
34.78
18.17
40.24
0.00
-0.54
0.00
0.03
0.00
-15.09
0.00
0.84
-0.40
6.43
-7.50
1.42
0.26
2.35
0.13
2.35
3.36
2.38
0.03
2.53
-7.25
0.90
1.57
1.78
1.72
1.40
1.71
16.67
1.75
0.62
2.16
-5.20
9.28
27.22
26.40
28.15
25.96
28.10
33.99
28.15
25.90
29.19
19.35
27.47
15338
20942
13155
20494
13157
19349
13169
16818
13379
6657
25814
25.96
21.64
25.45
21.42
25.42
28.22
25.47
20.57
25.58
8.96
22.26
-3.88
-0.47
-2.90
-0.36
-2.88
-4.98
-2.92
0.49
-2.90
7.38
-0.66
0.96
0.06
1.44
-0.06
1.43
2.13
1.44
-0.06
1.56
-4.78
0.49
5.29
1.53
4.22
1.44
4.22
6.42
4.28
0.83
4.23
-5.54
1.86
17.76
16.31
18.04
16.12
17.99
20.23
18.02
16.05
18.22
11.61
16.47
11844
13806
9839
13664
9826
10908
9846
11128
9888
3261
14200
On-peak
Capital Zone
Central Zone
Dunwoodie Zone
Genesee Zone
Hudson Valley Zone
Long Island Zone
Millwood Zone
Mohawk Valley Zone
N.Y.C. Zone
North Zone
West Zone
20000
15000
2-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
Generation unit outage report

Plant/Operator
Off-Peak
Capital Zone
Central Zone
Dunwoodie Zone
Genesee Zone
Hudson Valley Zone
Long Island Zone
Millwood Zone
Mohawk Valley Zone
N.Y.C. Zone
North Zone
West Zone
25000
Cap
Fuel
State
Status
Return
Northeast
Atikokan/OPG
205
Bruce-3/Bruce Power
780
Bruce-4/BrucePower
780
Darlington-1/OPD
881
Darlington-2/OPD
881
Darlington-3/OPD
876
Darlington-4/OPD
881
Goreway-11/SitheGoreway 195
Lake Superior/Brookfield
120
Lennox-3/OPG
525
Lennox-4/OPG
525
Millstone-2/Dominion
870
Pickering-6/OPG
520
Seabrook-1/NextEra
1296
bio
n
n
n
n
n
n
g
g
g
g
n
n
n
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Conn.
Ont.
N.H.
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
PMO
MO
PMO
MO
MO
RF
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Shut
09/29/15
10/02/15
10/01/15
09/14/15
09/14/15
09/11/15
09/14/15
09/18/15
11/04/14
09/04/15
09/28/15
10/03/15
09/21/15
10/01/15
MEGAWATT DAILY
Southeast & Central day-ahead bilateral indexes for Oct 7 ($/MWh)
SOUTHEAST MARKETS
ERCOT dailies down 41% from 2014 values

Electric Reliability Council of Texas dailies lost ground Tuesday
despite rising demand expectations and stronger spot gas prices.
ERCOT North Hub day-ahead on-peak physical dropped $1 to
about $25.75/MWh for Wednesday delivery on the
IntercontinentalExchange. So far in October, day-ahead values are
down nearly 16% from September and are almost 41% below
October 2014 values. Off-peak lost $1.75 to around $16/MWh.
Balance-of-the-day on-peak for Tuesday traded at around $21.25/
MWh, down $5.50 from where the daily package traded Monday.
ERCOT North Hub balance-of-the-week on-peak fell $3 to $28/
MWh. Next-week on-peak was steady at $28/MWh.
Spot natural gas at Houston Ship Channel gained 2.1 cents to
about $2.361/MMBtu on ICE.
ERCOT forecast system load to peak around 48,550 MW
Tuesday, 52,325 MW Wednesday and 52,550 MW Thursday. Wind
generation was forecast to peak at 5,050 MW at midnight CDT
Tuesday and 5,625 MW at 1 am CDT Wednesday.
High temperatures across Texas were forecast in the upper 80s
to low 90s Wednesday, as much as 9 degrees above normal. Lows
were expected in the mid- to upper 60s, as much as 8 degrees
above normal.
Real-time prices showed no congestion by 2 pm CDT Tuesday
and averaged $18/MWh, down $1.25 from the same time
Monday.
In the Southeast, dailies were weaker Tuesday as temperatures
were forecast above seasonal norms.
Into Southern day-ahead on-peak physical power eased about
$1 to the upper $20s/MWh for Wednesday delivery on ICE. So far
in October, Into Southern day-ahead prices are down 7% from
September and are about 27% below the October 2014 average
value.
Spot natural gas at Transco Zone-3 added 3.3 cents to about
$2.333/MMBtu on ICE.
High temperatures in Atlanta were forecast at 84 Wednesday, 9
degrees above normal. Lows were expected at 62, 5 degrees above
normal.
ERCOT forwards were mixed Tuesday as NYMEX November
gas futures added 2 cents to about $2.47/MMBtu, holding steady
with morning activity.
ERCOT North Hub November on-peak rose 25 cents to $24.75/
MWh on the Intercontinental Exchange around 2:30 pm EDT.
December on-peak lost 25 cents to $25.25/MWh. January-February
and March-April on-peak were flat to each other at $28.75/MWh.
May on-peak was steady at $27.25/MWh. June on-peak stayed
near $33/MWh. July-August on-peak jumped $1.25 to $53.75/
MWh. July-August 2018 on-peak heat rates traded 50 MW at 19.50
MMBtu/MWh.
In the Southwest Power Pool, SPP North Hub November
on-peak gained about 25 cents to $22/MWh and SPP South Hub
November on-peak was steady around $27.50/MWh.
Index
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
Southeast On-peak
VACAR
Southern, Into
GTC, Into
Florida
TVA, Into
29.75
28.00
29.00
34.00
29.00
-1.25
-1.00
-1.50
-1.00
-1.00
29.55
28.35
29.15
34.35
28.75
12396
12056
10334
14719
12147
Southeast Off-Peak
VACAR
Southern, Into
GTC, Into
Florida
TVA, Into
22.75
23.00
24.00
25.75
22.75
0.50
1.75
1.75
1.75
1.00
20.29
21.43
22.21
24.61
20.75
9479
9903
10334
11147
9529
Southeast load and generation mix forecast (GWh)

Actual
05-Oct
% Chg
%Chg Year-ago
ERCOT
Load
960
Generation
Coal
410
Gas
301
Nuclear
94
SPP
Load
621
Generation
Coal
360
Gas
127
Nuclear
61
Forecast
19
938
958
969
928
843
14
9
0
1
11
7
391
352
94
400
357
95
407
355
100
400
329
108
387
301
115
616
632
651
614
561
-1
55
-2
-7
13
-3
357
127
61
359
124
61
361
119
61
351
99
61
341
87
61
Source: Bentek
ERCOT & SPP nuclear generation outages (GW)

2500
2015
2014
7-Aug
22-Aug
2013
2000
1500
1000
500
0
8-Jul
23-Jul
6-Sep
21-Sep
6-Oct
Source: NRC
Southeast & Central spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

3.00
Panhandle, Tx. Okla.
Houston Ship Channel
Henry Hub
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
24-Aug
01-Sep
10-Sep
Source: Platts
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
MEGAWATT DAILY
ERCOT average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Southeast & Central Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Oct 6 ($/MWh)
Average
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
25.68
25.91
26.85
25.29
26.02
25.49
25.80
26.80
27.08
25.27
27.50
26.05
28.50
27.41
-0.42
-0.33
-0.15
-0.56
-0.19
-0.43
-0.40
-0.01
0.72
-0.52
-0.15
-0.55
-0.21
-2.41
24.14
24.35
25.26
23.76
24.40
23.98
24.38
25.47
24.63
23.74
25.80
24.20
26.17
25.58
11174
11274
11383
11135
11267
11302
11441
11600
11723
11127
11660
11468
12336
12157
15.21
15.27
15.51
15.12
15.30
15.15
15.24
15.30
15.26
15.12
15.50
15.12
15.36
15.16
-1.67
-1.63
-1.48
-1.71
-1.64
-1.69
-1.61
-1.76
-1.65
-1.71
-1.50
-1.71
-1.65
-1.69
16.18
16.20
16.29
16.13
16.24
16.14
16.14
16.40
16.18
16.13
16.29
16.13
16.31
16.15
6703
6727
6636
6825
6679
6773
6815
6680
6661
6824
6631
6826
6704
6777
On-peak
Bus Average
Hub Average
Houston Hub
North Hub
South Hub
West Hub
AEN Zone
CPS Zone
LCRA Zone
Rayburn Zone
Houston Zone
North Zone
South Zone
West Zone
On-peak
Off-peak
33.85
31.45
24.80
25.85
24.40
25.15
27.05
27.30
19.25
19.95
17.50
18.00
50
40
30
20
10
No
v-1
De 5
c-1
Ja 5
nMa 16
y-1
Ju 6
n-1
6
Ja Sep
n/ -16
F
Ma ebr/A 16
Ju pr-1
l/A
6
ug
-16
Q4
Ma -16
y-1
Ju 7
n-1
7
S
Ja ep-1
n/
7
Ma Febr/A 17
Ju pr-1
l/A
7
ug
-1
Q4 7
-1
Ca 7
l-1
Ca 6
l-1
Ca 7
l-1
Ca 8
l-1
9
ERCOT South: Marginal heat rate on-peak (Btu/kWh)

13000
Month 1
Month 2
12000
11000
Average
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
29.47
36.92
34.03
-1.14
5.06
2.28
-1.26
0.00
-0.11
-0.33
2.51
1.40
26.83
29.48
29.42
13153
16241
14443
20.26
20.64
20.67
0.87
0.76
0.87
-0.43
0.06
-0.01
0.23
-0.14
-0.31
19.05
19.53
19.71
9071
9129
8843
On-peak
Arkansas Hub
Louisiana Hub
Texas Hub
Southern Into
Entergy Into
ERCOT North
ERCOT Houston
ERCOT West
ERCOT South
60
MISO South average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
ERCOT South: Forward curve on-peak ($/MWh)
Off-Peak
Bus Average
Hub Average
Houston Hub
North Hub
South Hub
West Hub
AEN Zone
CPS Zone
LCRA Zone
Rayburn Zone
Houston Zone
North Zone
South Zone
West Zone
10000
9000
2-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
Off-Peak
Arkansas Hub
Louisiana Hub
Texas Hub

Plant/Operator
SPP average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Average
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
21.27
27.18
-1.60
2.07
-1.36
0.89
-1.55
0.32
19.40
25.06
8982
12290
14.35
19.51
-1.40
2.09
-1.16
0.51
-0.56
-1.01
13.99
18.96
6158
8904
On-peak
SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
Off-Peak
SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
Southeast near-term bilateral markets ($/MWh)

Package
Southern, into
Bal-month
Trade date
Range
10/01
27.75-28.25
Cap
Fuel
State
Status
Return
Southeast & Central

Arkansas-2/Entergy
1065
Big Brown/Luminant
575
Bowen-2/Georgia Power
800
Comanche Peak-2/Luminant1250
Fermi-2/DTE
1131
Limestone-2/NRG
860
Martin Lake-2/Luminant
750
Martin Lake-3/Luminant
750
McGruire-2/Duke
1156
Monticello-1/Luminant
565
Monticello-2/Luminant
565
Saint Lucie-2/FP&L
1002
Summer/SCE&G
1006
Vogtle-1/Southern Nuclear 1213
WattsBar-1/TVA
1210
n
c
c
n
n
c
c
c
n
c
c
n
n
n
n
Ark.
Texas
Ga.
Texas
Mich.
Texas
Texas
Texas
N.C.
Texas
Texas
Fla.
S.C.
Ga.
Tenn.
RF
MO
PMO
RF
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
RF
RF
PMO
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Shut
09/20/15
04/13/15
04/04/13
10/03/15
09/13/15
08/09/14
02/01/15
06/18/15
09/12/15
06/18/15
06/11/14
09/07/15
10/02/15
09/20/15
09/20/15
MEGAWATT DAILY
Western day-ahead bilateral indexes for Oct 7 ($/MWh)
WEST MARKETS
SP15 values inch up in mid-$30s/MWh

West day-ahead on-peak prices were mixed Tuesday as
California prices edged up with the drop in nuclear generation
weighing on the market and demand set to go up slightly midweek.
The planned outage at the 1.1 GW Diablo Canyon unit-1
reduced nuclear generation in the Southwest to 1.1 GW on
Sunday, down from 2 GW on Saturday. Thermal generation
jumped to 13 GW on Monday, from 9.9 GW on Sunday.
In California, SP15 day-ahead on-peak was up 25 cents to
about $35.25/MWh. Off-peak was flat at about $27.50/MWh.
The California ISO projected peak demand at about 31,375
MW Tuesday and 32,850 MW Wednesday.
The spot natural gas price for Wednesday delivery in Southern
California declined with Socal city-gate down 2 cents to about
$2.619/MMBtu.
In the Southwest, Palo Verde day-ahead on-peak for
Wednesday delivery was down $1.50 to around $23.75/MWh on
ICE. Day-ahead off-peak was down 50 cents to about $20.50/MWh.
Phoenix high temperatures were expected at 87 degrees on
Wednesday, 5 degrees below the average. In Las Vegas, highs were
expected to reach 88 degrees on Tuesday, 3 degrees above the norm.
Arizona gas-fired power demand averaged 1 Bcf/d on Monday,
down from 1.03 Bcf/d on Sunday. Nevada gas burn averaged 424
MMcf/d from 430 MMcf/d over the same period, according to data
from Bentek Energy.
In the Northwest, Mid-Columbia day-ahead on-peak was down
50 cents to around $23.50/MWh. Off-peak was down $2 around
$21.75/MWh.
Portlands high temperature was forecast at 72 degrees on
Wednesday, 5 degrees above the norm. Seattle was forecast to see
a high of 68 degrees, 6 degrees higher than the average.
BPA net exports averaged 102 GWH/d on Monday, up 17%
from the day before. Month to date, exports have averaged 112
GWh/d, up from 99 GWh/d from the same period a year ago.
Western US forward prices were little changed Tuesday as
NYMEX November gas futures edged up. NYMEX November gas
futures rose 2 cents to $2.47/MMBtu.
In California, SP15 on-peak November fell 25 cents to about
$33.25/MWh on IntercontinentalExchange at about 2:30 pm EDT
and 75 MW traded on-screen. First quarter on-peak rose 25 cents
to about $33.75/MWh.
Socal gas basis November was at 6.5 cents, up 0.25 cent from
Monday.
In the Northwest, Mid-Columbia on-peak November was flat
at $24.50/MWh.
NWP-Sumas November gas basis was at minus 18 cents, up
0.75 cent from Monday.
Mid-C off-peak November fell 50 cents to about $21.25/MWh.
On-peak December was up 25 cents to about $29.50/MWh. First
quarter on-peak was up 25 cents to about $24.50/MWh.
In the Southwest, Palo Verde on-peak November was up 25
cents to about $25.50/MWh.
Index
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
On-peak
Mid-C
John Day
COB
NOB
Palo Verde
Westwing
Pinnacle Peak
Mead
Mona
Four Corners
23.46
24.50
24.98
25.00
23.68
24.50
23.50
26.50
25.00
24.00
-0.62
-0.50
-1.32
-1.00
-1.42
-1.00
-1.50
-1.25
1.00
-0.75
23.25
24.29
25.56
25.38
25.61
26.79
26.17
27.54
25.67
26.38
10603
11073
10744
11299
10120
10470
10043
10950
11390
10619
Off-Peak
Mid-C
John Day
COB
NOB
Palo Verde
Westwing
Pinnacle Peak
Mead
Mona
Four Corners
21.38
22.50
22.44
23.00
20.31
20.75
20.50
21.50
20.75
19.75
-2.20
-2.00
-1.10
-1.75
-0.59
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-1.25
-0.25
22.13
23.18
22.72
23.54
21.29
21.57
21.71
22.04
21.82
19.82
9663
10169
9652
10395
8679
8868
8761
8884
9453
8739
CAISO nuclear generation outages (GW)

8000
2015
2014
29-Dec
13-Jan
2013
6000
4000
2000
0
29-Nov
14-Dec
28-Jan
12-Feb
27-Feb
Source: NRC
Western spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

4.0
NW, Can. Bdr. (Sumas)
SoCal Gas city-gate
PG&E city-gate
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
24-Aug
01-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
Source: Platts
Western load and generation mix forecast (GWh)

Actual
05-Oct
CAISO
Load
649
Generation
Gas
269
Nuclear
28
% Chg
%Chg Year-ago
Forecast
21
-4
633
655
670
690
652
3
0
-7
11
250
28
253
29
266
33
285
41
306
48
Source: Bentek
MEGAWATT DAILY
CAISO average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Western Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Oct 6 ($/MWh)
Average
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
38.25
35.89
36.13
1.13
-0.70
-0.15
-0.85
-1.38
-1.69
1.80
1.55
1.40
34.08
33.32
32.97
13089
14814
14912
27.36
27.01
26.93
-0.01
-0.03
0.00
-0.52
-0.85
-0.96
-0.97
-0.92
-0.99
27.61
27.37
27.18
9361
11140
11109
On-peak
NP15 Gen Hub
SP15 Gen Hub
ZP26 Gen Hub
On-peak
Off-peak
24.60
25.10
26.00
36.05
33.20
21.20
20.70
21.85
28.95
27.70
Mid-C
Palo Verde
Mead
NP15
SP15
Off-Peak
NP15: Forward curve on-peak ($/MWh)

50
40
Western near-term bilateral markets ($/MWh)

Trade date
Range
30
Mid-C
Bal-week
Bal-week
Bal-week
Bal-week
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month (off-peak)
Next-week
Next-week
Next-week
Next-week
Next-week
Next-week (off-peak)
10/06
10/05
10/02
09/30
10/06
10/05
10/02
10/01
09/30
10/06
10/05
10/02
10/01
09/30
10/06
10/05
10/02
10/01
09/30
10/06
10/05
10/01
22.25-22.75
24.25-24.75
23.00-23.50
22.75-23.25
23.25-23.75
23.50-24.00
22.50-23.00
22.50-23.00
24.00-24.50
21.00-21.50
21.50-22.00
20.50-21.00
21.00-21.50
21.75-22.25
23.50-24.00
23.75-24.25
22.75-23.25
23.25-23.75
25.75-26.25
22.25-22.75
22.75-23.25
22.25-22.75
20
Palo Verde
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
10/05
10/02
10/01
10/05
27.50-28.00
27.50-28.00
27.00-27.50
21.25-21.75
l-1
7
Ca
l-1
8
Ca
l-1
9
l-1
Ca
-17
Ca
-17
Q4
-17
Q3
-17
Q2
-16
Q1
-16
Q4
-16
Q3
Q2
-16
n-1
Q1
Ja
NP15: Marginal heat rate on-peak (Btu/kWh)

14000
Month 1
Month 2
13000
12000
11000
10000
2-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
BPA & CAISO hydro and wind generation (GWh)

Plant/Operator
c-1
10
No
v-1
Package
De
NP15 Gen Hub

SP15 Gen Hub
ZP26 Gen Hub
Cap
Fuel
State
Status
Return
West
Belden Hydro/PG&E
119
Big Creek Hydro/SCE
820
Diablo Canyon-1/PG&E
1150
Helms Pump-1/PG&E
407
Inland-2/Inland Empire
366
Mariposa Energy/PG&E
196
Middle Fork-Ralston/PG&E 218
Mountainview-3/MPC
525
Patterson/PG&E
138
Pine Flat/CDWR
210
Pittsburg-5/Mirant
312
h
h
n
h
g
g
h
g
w
h
g
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
MO
PMO
PMO
PMO
MO
MO
MO
PMO
MO
MO
PMO
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Shut
200
10/05/15
10/05/15
10/04/15
09/27/15
09/22/15
10/05/15
10/01/15
10/04/15
10/04/15
08/23/15
10/01/15
150
BPA Hydro
CAISO Hydro
BPA Wind
CAISO Wind
100
50
0
5-Sep
10-Sep
15-Sep
20-Sep
25-Sep
30-Sep
5-Oct
Source: BPA and CAISO
Additional information on data and analysis

For more information on data and analysis from Bentek Analytics, including
five-day load and generation mix forecasts and relative load normalized
by temperature, email power@bentekenergy.com, or call 303-988-1320.
Average on-peak and off-peak LMP and marginal heat-rate data is available
via Platts Market Data. More detailed, hourly LMP and marginal heat-rate
data is available from Bentek Analytics.
MEGAWATT DAILY
PJM & MISO nuclear generation outages (GW)
PJM & MISO MARKETS
10000
2015
8000
PJM West weakens in mid-$30s/MWh

Mid-Atlantic day-ahead power prices tracked spot gas prices
lower Tuesday.
PJM West Hub day-ahead on-peak shed $1.50 to about $35/
MWh for Wednesday delivery on the IntercontinentalExchange.
PJM day-ahead off-peak sank $2.25 to below $22.50/MWh.
The PJM Interconnection forecast peakload to rise from around
89,475 MW Tuesday to near 90,850 MW Wednesday and 91,175
MW Thursday.
Texas Eastern M-3 day-ahead natural gas fell 19.4 cents to
$1.102/MMBtu.
Temperatures in the PJM Interconnection eastern region were
forecast more than 5 degrees above average with highs expected
in upper 60s to lower 80s.
Midcontinent dailies were flat to lower, ignoring higher
demand projections.
Indiana Hub day-ahead on-peak was steady to the previous
day at $32.75/MWh for Wednesday delivery, while day-ahead offpeak fell 75 cents to $22.25/MWh.
The Midcontinent ISO predicted demand to peak near 82,050
MW Tuesday, 82,600 MW Wednesday and 84,150 MW Thursday.
Indianapolis temperature highs were forecast in the mid-70s
Tuesday and Wednesday, more than 5 degrees over the norm.
Dailies in the Midwestern portion of PJM mostly fell amid
weakness in nearby markets.
AD Hub day-ahead on-peak prices for Wednesday delivery
shed $1.25 to about $33.50/MWh, while day-ahead off-peak
dropped $2 to below $22.75/MWh. NI Hub day-ahead on-peak
bucked the regional trend, adding $2 to around $34/MWh.
Mid-Atlantic forwards were flat to lower Tuesday afternoon
amid weaker regional gas basis.
PJM West Hub on-peak November was flat at roughly $38.25/
MWh on the IntercontinentalExchange around 2:30 pm EDT. The
PJM November package has fallen about $1.25 in the last month
and is $9.50 below the average November contract price seen in
October 2014. PJM on-peak December was also unchanged at
about $41.25/MWh, while the PJM on-peak January-February
contract shed 25 cents to around $53.50/MWh.
NYMEX November gas futures jumped 2 cents to $2.470/
MMBtu, while Texas Eastern M-3 November gas basis eased 2.1
cents to negative 79.6 cents/MMBtu.
Midwest forwards were flat to lower, mirroring movements in
nearby markets.
AD Hub and NI Hub on-peak November financial futures lost
25 cents each to around $35.50/MWh and $32.50/MWh,
respectively. Indiana Hub on-peak November was about $32.75/
MWh, steady to the previous day.
In the Southwest Power Pool, SPP North Hub November
on-peak gained about 25 cents to $22/MWh and SPP South Hub
November on-peak was steady around $27.50/MWh.
2014
2013
6000
4000
2000
0
8-Jul
23-Jul
7-Aug
22-Aug
6-Sep
21-Sep
6-Oct
Source: NRC
PJM & MISO spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

3.5
Chicago city-gates
Columbia Gas App
Tx.Eastern, M-3
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
24-Aug
01-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
Source: Platts
PJM & MISO load and generation mix forecast (GWh)

Actual
05-Oct
PJM
Load
1942
Generation
Coal
746
Gas
411
Nuclear
701
MISO
Load
1700
Generation
Coal
868
Gas
309
Nuclear
209
% Chg
%Chg Year-ago
Forecast
17
1903
1928
1939
1916
1712
21
17
-3
-11
34
1
717
424
702
732
411
703
720
393
706
707
379
712
689
336
718
14
1669
1729
1775
1734
1575
8
21
3
-12
49
27
853
307
122
864
288
127
864
276
146
797
240
180
755
216
213
Source: Bentek
Market coverage
Platts provides a detailed methodology related to its coverage
of North American electricity markets at:
http://platts.com/MethodologyAndSpecifications/ElectricPower.
Questions can be directed to Eric Wieser at (202) 383-2092
or Eric.Wieser@platts.com.
MEGAWATT DAILY
PJM average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
PJM & MISO Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Oct 6 ($/MWh)
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
30.37
31.49
32.00
29.53
33.07
33.51
33.09
28.31
33.70
31.27
32.32
33.70
31.93
33.01
27.86
32.47
44.86
33.01
32.12
33.54
34.08
30.72
31.75
30.52
28.28
29.41
28.04
31.19
37.28
28.11
28.54
28.41
-0.52
-0.13
-0.26
-0.52
2.52
1.35
-0.21
-4.01
3.38
-0.32
0.41
0.99
0.14
0.53
-4.31
-0.22
11.45
2.55
-0.41
0.29
1.61
-0.26
-0.16
-0.26
-4.09
-3.18
-4.02
-1.75
4.28
-4.13
-3.82
-3.91
-1.19
-0.46
0.19
-2.03
-1.53
0.08
1.22
0.24
-1.77
-0.48
-0.17
0.63
-0.29
0.40
0.08
0.61
1.33
-1.62
0.44
1.17
0.39
-1.09
-0.17
-1.30
0.29
0.51
-0.02
0.86
0.91
0.16
0.27
0.24
-3.11
-3.36
-2.93
-2.18
-1.08
-2.95
-3.31
-2.82
-0.88
-3.39
-2.95
-2.45
-3.28
-2.67
-2.95
-2.87
3.77
-1.42
-3.56
-3.00
-2.91
-3.66
-2.66
-3.41
-2.89
-4.73
-2.53
-2.83
-1.65
-2.77
-2.71
-2.95
28.50
29.86
30.58
26.52
27.81
32.10
34.02
26.95
27.92
29.51
31.06
32.25
30.47
31.57
26.83
30.99
38.63
27.86
30.24
33.61
32.68
29.07
30.80
28.87
26.87
27.23
26.31
29.65
35.53
26.68
27.08
27.03
15288
15850
16521
12416
13905
14550
18820
16103
14167
13217
22480
23443
16071
17688
15845
16763
23914
13881
14191
19079
14795
13576
19603
18016
16085
15407
14686
19668
19874
14724
16232
16162
22.53
22.99
22.96
20.44
23.32
23.45
22.38
21.30
24.10
22.97
23.03
23.49
23.08
23.34
21.04
23.21
26.88
23.25
23.46
22.65
23.68
22.67
22.86
22.45
21.26
21.77
21.84
22.83
24.64
21.34
21.40
21.44
-0.02
0.04
-0.10
-1.53
1.05
0.43
-0.73
-1.56
1.97
0.04
0.12
0.26
0.05
0.11
-1.77
-0.11
3.22
1.04
-0.01
-0.48
0.52
0.02
-0.14
-0.03
-1.59
-1.04
-0.90
-0.62
1.26
-1.42
-1.51
-1.47
-0.43
-0.03
0.09
-1.01
-0.70
0.04
0.13
-0.11
-0.84
-0.05
-0.06
0.26
0.05
0.26
-0.17
0.35
0.69
-0.76
0.49
0.15
0.19
-0.33
0.02
-0.50
-0.13
-0.16
-0.23
0.48
0.41
-0.21
-0.07
-0.06
-0.84
-0.95
-0.86
-0.42
0.18
-0.94
0.60
-0.25
0.37
-0.96
-0.86
-0.55
-0.94
-0.63
-0.29
-0.81
0.38
-0.21
-1.00
0.91
-0.95
-1.05
-0.79
-0.96
-0.30
0.30
0.54
-0.42
-0.78
-0.05
-0.23
-0.27
19.98
20.53
20.68
17.44
18.45
21.19
23.28
19.15
18.61
20.43
20.78
20.96
20.70
20.95
19.09
20.88
23.25
18.48
20.85
23.02
21.40
20.21
20.70
19.98
19.09
19.11
19.09
20.30
22.12
19.05
19.23
19.19
11311
11544
11804
8683
9906
10292
12549
11944
10237
9849
15422
15730
11588
12412
11797
11929
14411
9875
10486
12702
10395
10133
13798
13008
11919
11349
11383
14553
13209
11125
11998
12023
Average
On-peak

PJM West
AD Hub
NI Hub
Indiana Hub
On-peak
Off-peak
38.25
35.75
32.60
32.65
28.80
27.60
23.05
25.50
NI Hub: Forward curve on-peak ($/MWh)

50
40
30
20
10
0
No
v-1
De 5
c-1
Ja 5
nMa 16
y-1
Ju 6
n-1
6
Ja Sep
n/ -16
F
Ma ebr/A 16
Ju pr-1
l/A
6
ug
-16
Q4
Ma -16
y-1
Ju 7
n-1
7
S
Ja ep-1
n/
7
Ma Febr/A 17
Ju pr-1
l/A
7
ug
-1
Q4 7
-1
Ca 7
l-1
Ca 6
l-1
Ca 7
l-1
Ca 8
l-1
9
AEP Gen Hub

AEP-Dayton Hub
ATSI Gen Hub
Chicago Gen Hub
Chicago Hub
Dominion Hub
Eastern Hub
New Jersey Hub
Northern Illinois Hub
Ohio Hub
West Internal Hub
Western Hub
AEP Zone
Allegheny Power Zone
Atlantic Elec Zone
ATSI Zone
BG&E Zone
ComEd Zone
Dayton P&L Zone
Delmarva P&L Zone
Dominion Zone
Duke Zone
Duquesne Light Zone
EKPC Zone
JCPL Zone
MetEd Zone
PECO Zone
Pennsylvania Elec Zone
PEPCO Zone
PPL Zone
PSEG Zone
Rockland Elec Zone
NI Hub: Marginal heat rate on-peak (Btu/kWh)

14000
Month 1
Month 2
13000
12000
11000
Off-Peak
AEP Gen Hub
AEP-Dayton Hub
ATSI Gen Hub
Chicago Gen Hub
Chicago Hub
Dominion Hub
Eastern Hub
New Jersey Hub
Ohio Hub
West Internal Hub
Western Hub
AEP Zone
Atlantic Elec Zone
ATSI Zone
BG&E Zone
ComEd Zone
Dayton P&L Zone
Delmarva P&L Zone
Dominion Zone
Duke Zone
Duquesne Light Zone
EKPC Zone
JCPL Zone
MetEd Zone
PECO Zone
PEPCO Zone
PPL Zone
PSEG Zone
Rockland Elec Zone
10000
2-Sep
10-Sep
18-Sep
28-Sep
06-Oct
MISO average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Average
Cong
Loss
Change
Avg
$/Mo
Marginal
heat rate
30.01
31.89
24.06
35.41
-2.26
-0.92
-6.83
4.01
0.41
0.95
-0.97
-0.46
-2.96
-1.68
-7.30
0.77
28.97
29.36
24.00
30.14
17686
12328
9764
14483
20.71
22.50
13.63
22.80
0.38
2.10
-4.84
3.18
0.51
0.59
-1.34
-0.20
-1.76
0.28
-5.72
2.14
19.19
19.77
11.73
18.92
12033
8852
5578
9461
On-peak
Indiana Hub
Michigan Hub
Minnesota Hub
Illinois Hub
Off-Peak
Indiana Hub
Michigan Hub
Minnesota Hub
Illinois Hub

Plant/Operator
PJM & MISO
Beaver Vly-2/FirstEnergy
Braidwood-2/Exelon
Palisades/NMC
Peach Bottom-3/Exelon
Point Beach-2/NMC
Cap
Fuel
State
Status
Return
943
1197
810
1182
559
n
n
n
n
n
Penn.
Ill.
Mich.
Penn.
Wis.
RF
MO
MO
PMO
MO
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Shut
09/26/15
10/04/15
09/15/15
09/21/15
10/02/15
MEGAWATT DAILY
ISONE average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
PJM average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)
Avg Marginal DA/RT

$/Mo heat rate spread
Avg Mo
DA/RT
Average
Change
44.48
43.91
45.09
44.35
44.53
44.25
44.54
45.19
44.27
2.27
2.74
2.25
1.99
2.44
1.73
2.29
2.62
3.02
32.39
32.02
32.85
32.42
32.40
32.38
32.12
32.55
31.61
31630
26214
32059
31533
31662
31465
19708
19994
19590
-5.62
-5.46
-5.95
-5.76
-5.61
-5.79
-6.73
-6.21
-5.76
-3.56
-3.38
-3.71
-3.58
-3.54
-3.31
-3.76
-3.61
-3.20
26.33
26.01
26.54
26.41
26.34
26.29
26.07
26.39
25.90
5.63
5.45
5.77
5.71
5.65
5.48
5.95
5.97
5.83
17.24
17.14
17.34
17.27
17.25
17.29
16.89
17.09
16.72
18725
15527
18874
18777
18732
18695
11536
11677
11458
-2.99
-2.92
-3.06
-3.01
-2.98
-3.11
-3.25
-3.08
-2.88
1.12
1.16
1.12
1.10
1.14
1.05
1.08
1.19
1.28
On-peak
Internal Hub
Connecticut
NE Mass-Boston
SE Mass
West-Central Mass
Rhode Island
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
NYISO average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Avg Marginal DA/RT

Avg Mo
DA/RT
Average
Change
36.68
36.99
37.10
34.47
37.25
67.10
37.14
35.36
37.01
29.04
58.03
12.96
14.05
13.04
11.66
13.33
42.48
13.19
12.66
12.99
9.93
35.08
26.45
25.70
26.90
25.09
26.90
33.27
26.91
25.55
27.20
21.84
29.80
21512
27402
20555
25532
20638
37177
20576
22903
20503
12850
42983
-6.70
-7.88
-6.34
-5.76
-6.49
-34.08
-6.38
-6.53
-6.00
-5.71
-28.92
-1.34
-1.44
-0.81
-1.25
-0.90
-2.47
-0.84
-1.58
0.18
-3.06
-5.58
27.78
26.74
28.83
27.34
29.16
28.88
29.00
27.32
29.02
22.98
27.76
6.54
6.41
7.22
7.09
7.59
-2.79
7.31
7.07
7.24
6.44
7.27
19.62
17.28
19.59
17.28
19.55
21.70
19.61
17.48
19.69
14.33
17.53
16295
19806
15975
20254
16154
16001
16066
17696
16076
10169
20561
-10.06
-9.52
-10.65
-10.25
-11.00
-10.30
-10.83
-10.37
-10.74
-9.65
-10.27
-4.08
-2.80
-3.67
-2.99
-3.69
-3.39
-3.72
-3.07
-3.58
-2.78
-3.00
On-peak
Capital Zone
Central Zone
Dunwoodie Zone
Genesee Zone
Hudson Valley Zone
Long Island Zone
Millwood Zone
Mohawk Valley Zone
N.Y.C. Zone
North Zone
West Zone
Off-Peak
Capital Zone
Central Zone
Dunwoodie Zone
Genesee Zone
Hudson Valley Zone
Long Island Zone
Millwood Zone
Mohawk Valley Zone
N.Y.C. Zone
North Zone
West Zone
Ontario average hourly prices for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Avg Marginal
$/Mo heat rate
Average
Change
32.75
2.12
41.11
13561
25.98
-0.37
17.92
10758
On-peak
IESO
Off-Peak
IESO
Hub/Zone
Change
Avg Marginal DA/RT

31.00
31.91
31.81
30.52
35.50
33.74
25.30
25.49
37.14
31.98
32.34
32.80
32.07
32.25
25.12
32.09
40.07
36.31
32.68
24.96
34.37
30.99
31.12
30.74
25.56
25.40
25.01
29.81
36.98
25.51
25.56
26.15
6.79
7.23
7.20
7.46
10.19
7.83
4.34
4.70
11.13
7.28
7.37
7.60
7.27
7.29
4.41
7.32
10.17
10.89
7.24
4.15
8.10
6.75
6.70
6.67
4.79
4.73
4.52
6.40
9.37
4.76
4.74
4.96
25.42
26.13
26.26
22.05
24.25
27.27
29.41
22.36
24.74
26.15
26.49
26.72
26.27
26.46
22.30
26.49
31.35
24.43
26.77
28.54
27.69
25.45
25.95
25.18
22.36
22.28
21.99
24.97
29.26
22.33
22.39
22.74
16751
17239
17597
13475
15673
15308
18983
19128
16395
14098
25197
25560
17329
18488
18848
17752
25701
16031
15010
18731
15595
14230
20935
19818
19184
15891
15650
20157
23720
15961
19180
19624
4.58
3.70
3.42
-0.90
-4.91
4.14
5.10
4.04
-6.23
3.38
3.77
3.93
3.94
3.89
4.06
3.47
4.05
-5.42
3.52
5.30
4.14
4.12
4.24
3.97
3.99
3.73
3.92
3.59
4.03
3.87
4.10
3.66
1.71
2.41
3.16
2.83
1.24
3.68
4.32
3.48
0.70
1.98
3.48
4.46
2.96
4.00
3.53
3.34
5.55
1.09
2.01
4.49
3.85
2.23
3.94
2.34
3.37
3.14
3.12
3.49
5.24
3.23
3.56
3.14
36.68
37.45
37.13
35.76
39.41
39.31
29.74
29.82
40.60
37.51
37.78
37.93
37.61
37.72
29.56
37.32
45.71
39.68
38.33
29.52
39.90
36.75
36.48
36.59
29.89
29.59
29.39
34.45
42.50
29.82
29.84
30.46
20.92
21.44
21.06
20.51
23.01
23.34
14.02
14.34
23.86
21.48
21.83
22.05
21.55
21.74
14.03
21.16
29.51
23.24
21.90
13.79
23.87
20.94
20.51
20.89
14.44
14.02
13.88
18.41
26.42
14.31
14.36
14.92
19.87
20.25
20.34
18.41
20.27
20.57
19.45
18.44
20.64
20.28
20.33
20.36
20.32
20.37
18.47
20.47
22.17
20.28
20.69
19.37
20.76
19.85
20.15
19.65
18.42
18.47
18.37
19.82
21.40
18.46
18.44
18.59
19819
20233
20545
15789
17401
17836
22322
22380
17926
16535
29442
29556
20323
21626
22183
20648
29314
17517
17604
22156
18104
16878
24545
23587
22434
18514
18388
23299
27256
18658
22396
22861
-12.98
-13.28
-13.34
-15.26
-18.25
-14.24
-8.64
-8.71
-19.37
-13.40
-13.63
-13.85
-13.34
-13.61
-8.69
-13.36
-18.26
-18.38
-13.73
-8.46
-14.64
-12.72
-12.75
-12.88
-8.84
-8.78
-8.57
-11.62
-16.41
-8.87
-8.60
-9.22
-1.08
-0.90
-0.75
-2.26
-3.73
-0.46
4.31
-0.19
-4.15
-1.06
-0.62
-0.52
-0.76
-0.50
-0.22
-0.69
-0.31
-3.75
-1.08
3.98
-0.46
-0.83
-0.47
-0.84
-0.25
-0.37
-0.27
-0.62
-0.44
-0.34
-0.12
-0.35
Average
Avg Mo
DA/RT
On-peak
Off-Peak
Internal Hub
Connecticut
NE Mass-Boston
SE Mass
West-Central Mass
Rhode Island
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
10
AEP Gen Hub

AEP-Dayton Hub
ATSI Gen Hub
Chicago Gen Hub
Chicago Hub
Dominion Hub
Eastern Hub
New Jersy Hub
Ohio Hub
West Internal Hub
Western Hub
AEP Zone
Atlantic Elec Zone
ATSI Zone
BG&E Zone
ComEd Zone
Dayton P&L Zone
Delmarva P&L Zone
Dominion Zone
Duke Zone
Duquesne Light Zone
EKPC Zone
JCPL Zone
MetEd Zone
PECO Zone
PEPCO Zone
PPL Zone
PSEG Zone
Rockland Elec Zone
Off-Peak
AEP Gen Hub
AEP-Dayton Hub
ATSI Gen Hub
Chicago Gen Hub
Chicago Hub
Dominion Hub
Eastern Hub
New Jersy Hub
Ohio Hub
West Internal Hub
Western Hub
AEP Zone
Atlantic Elec Zone
ATSI Zone
BG&E Zone
ComEd Zone
Dayton P&L Zone
Delmarva P&L Zone
Dominion Zone
Duke Zone
Duquesne Light Zone
EKPC Zone
JCPL Zone
MetEd Zone
PECO Zone
PEPCO Zone
PPL Zone
PSEG Zone
Rockland Elec Zone
MEGAWATT DAILY
MISO average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
ERCOT average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)
Avg Marginal DA/RT

Avg Mo
DA/RT
Average
Change
34.98
37.94
29.02
43.09
10.56
12.26
8.59
19.59
26.94
27.99
21.04
26.53
22547
15383
12693
18879
-3.19
-5.89
0.15
-11.25
1.01
0.02
1.48
1.66
21.51
23.46
16.93
21.65
0.55
1.36
1.99
1.60
18.87
19.47
8.42
18.54
13865
9511
7405
9484
-0.12
-2.16
-0.92
-1.45
-0.64
-0.74
1.40
-0.75
On-peak
Indiana Hub
Michigan Hub
Minnesota Hub
Illinois Hub
MISO South average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Avg Marginal DA/RT

Avg Mo
DA/RT
Average
Change
29.43
29.78
29.19
7.00
7.14
6.74
23.78
24.22
24.15
13609
13592
12696
-0.97
-0.08
-0.44
1.93
2.78
3.71
20.69
20.78
20.71
1.16
0.96
0.93
18.75
18.98
19.10
9569
9481
9009
-1.29
-0.49
-0.45
-0.14
0.07
0.16
On-peak
Arkansas Hub
Louisiana Hub
Texas Hub
Off-Peak
Arkansas Hub
Louisiana Hub
Texas Hub
SPP average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Hub/Zone
Avg Marginal DA/RT

Avg Mo
DA/RT
Average
Change
20.08
20.08
20.07
20.08
20.07
20.09
20.08
20.09
20.08
20.08
20.07
20.08
20.17
20.09
-2.12
-2.12
-2.13
-2.12
-2.13
-2.11
-2.12
-2.11
-2.12
-2.12
-2.13
-2.12
-2.03
-2.11
20.41
20.48
20.77
20.26
20.57
20.31
20.45
20.61
20.53
20.26
20.89
20.26
20.67
20.32
9035
9035
8732
9035
8936
9468
9465
8943
8939
9035
8732
9035
8978
9469
5.13
5.30
6.17
4.90
5.09
5.07
5.35
5.95
5.38
4.86
6.77
5.40
7.64
6.78
3.03
3.18
3.83
2.78
3.14
2.97
3.28
4.33
3.27
2.76
4.20
3.09
4.53
4.04
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
18.03
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.68
17.03
17.05
17.15
16.98
17.08
16.99
17.00
17.14
17.03
16.98
17.15
16.98
17.12
17.00
8114
8114
7843
8112
8027
8500
8500
8027
8027
8112
7843
8112
8027
8500
-0.59
-0.58
-0.54
-0.61
-0.58
-0.60
-0.59
-0.53
-0.59
-0.61
-0.53
-0.61
-0.53
-0.60
-0.80
-0.81
-0.85
-0.79
-0.79
-0.79
-0.82
-0.65
-0.82
-0.79
-0.84
-0.79
-0.75
-0.79
On-peak
Off-Peak
Indiana Hub
Michigan Hub
Minnesota Hub
Illinois Hub
Avg Marginal DA/RT

Avg Mo
DA/RT
Average
Change
20.02
22.47
0.39
0.62
18.66
21.33
8792
10590
1.52
3.86
-0.31
2.94
16.16
19.46
0.23
1.46
13.89
17.14
7097
9170
-0.62
0.11
-0.16
1.40
Bus Average
Hub Average
Houston Hub
North Hub
South Hub
West Hub
AEN Zone
CPS Zone
LCRA Zone
Rayburn Zone
Houston Zone
North Zone
South Zone
West Zone
Off-Peak
Bus Average
Hub Average
Houston Hub
North Hub
South Hub
West Hub
AEN Zone
CPS Zone
LCRA Zone
Rayburn Zone
Houston Zone
North Zone
South Zone
West Zone
On-peak
SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
Off-Peak
SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
CAISO average real-time LMP for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
NP15 Gen Hub
SP15 Gen Hub
ZP26 Gen Hub
Avg Marginal
$/Mo heat rate
Average
Change
24.78
3.83
37.62
9921
18.48
-1.95
17.17
7399
On-peak
AESO
56.77
56.13
55.26
45.66
44.80
44.50
34346
41560
41254
-60.67
-60.87
-59.97
-12.90
-12.20
-12.52
0.17
0.26
0.21
26.53
25.78
25.79
8772
10615
10648
2.67
2.87
2.77
0.98
1.54
1.29
96.94
95.80
95.09
24.76
24.47
24.54
Off-Peak
NP15 Gen Hub
SP15 Gen Hub
ZP26 Gen Hub
Off-Peak
AESO
Avg Mo
DA/RT
Change
On-peak
Alberta average hourly prices for Oct 5 ($/MWh)

Hub/Zone
Avg Marginal DA/RT

Average
11
MEGAWATT DAILY
NEWS
Wind, dirt cheap gas stifle Central power prices

Stronger demand in the central US in September failed to
boost power markets as weak natural gas prices continued to
suppress day-ahead electricity markets.
After a run of record-breaking demand in August, Texas power
prices cooled in September, even as peak loads were higher year
over year.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas North Hub day-ahead
on-peak averaged $27.93/MWh in September, more than 52%
lower than August and about 26% below September of last year.
ERCOT Houston Hub day-ahead on-peak averaged $28/MWh
in September, almost 54% below August and more than 28%
below the same period in 2014.
ERCOT peak load in September averaged about 56,400 MW,
down 10% from August but up 5% compared with September of
last year, as regional temperatures averaged over 80 degrees
Fahrenheit, 1 degree above normal and 2 degrees above September
2014.
The Midcontinent Independent System Operators Texas Hub
also had lower day-ahead on-peak prices in September, averaging
$30.69/MWh, down more than 18% from August and 21% lower
than September 2014.
Spot natural gas prices and strong wind generation both
contributed to Septembers decline relative to last year.
Dirt cheap natural gas is certainly playing a factor, said
Gurcan Gulen, senior energy economist at the University of Texas
Bureau of Economic Geology, on Tuesday. We still have some
excess wind that might be causing prices to be lower.
For spot gas prices, Houston Ship Channel averaged $2.61/
MMBtu in September, around 34% lower than the same period
last year.
During September, peak wind generation averaged over 7,000
MW, a 56% increase over September 2014.
Further, ERCOT had a new record for peak wind generation on
September 13 of 11,467 MW, which was at the time serving close
to 30% of the load.
Cheap wind generation eroded regional spark spreads despite
falling fuel costs for gas-fired generators. September spark spreads

at ERCOT North Hub averaged about $8.65/MWh, less than half
the average August spark spread even when excluding scarcity
pricing days.
ERCOT, MISO Texas forwards differ

ERCOT forward months day-ahead prices are generally at a
discount to September, while the MISO Texas Hubs forward curve
slopes upwardlikely because of expectations of congestion in
that region.
On September 29, ERCOT Houstons October on-peak package
had a 5% premium to the September day-ahead on-peak average,
but the November package had a 4.3% discount, and the
December package had a 7% discount.
The ERCOT North packages of all three of the remaining
months of 2015 had a discount compared with Septembers dayahead on-peak average price. The October discount was about 2%,
the November discount was about 7%, and the December
discount was about 5%.
At the same time, MISOs Texas Hub October package
premium was more than 14% over the September day-ahead
on-peak average, Novembers premium was more than 15%, and
Decembers premium was more than 18%.
Speculating about the difference in forward prices for MISO
Texas, versus ERCOT, UTs Gulen said, It could be a congestion
issue.
Theyre pretty similar in terms of climate, Gulen said. They
have a lot of industrial load concentrated [in MISO Texas], which
could be contributing to congestion.
Up north in the Midwest, higher-than-normal demand kept
power prices firm in the face of falling natural gas prices.
MISOs Indiana Hub day-ahead on-peak averaged $32.09/MWh,
up 2.5% from August but down 12.5% from September 2014.
Peak load in the MISO averaged just over 93,000 MW, down
7% from August but up 6% from September 2014, as temperatures
averaged 3 degrees higher than normal at 69 degrees.
Gas prices at Chicago city-gates, which are most relevant for
Indiana Hub, had a slight month-to-month decline, averaging
$1.94/MMBtu for September, down 9 cents from August. Spark
spread responded by increasing almost $3 to $18.43/MWh.
Total wind generation in MISO registered at 2,945 GWh for
Day-ahead average on-peak prices ($/MWh)

Location
September 2015
PJM Northern Illinois Hub

SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
MISO Indiana Hub
MISO Texas Hub
ERCOT Houston Hub
ERCOT North Hub
ERCOT West Hub
32.43
22.28
29.26
32.09
30.69
28.00
27.93
27.94
August 2015
% change
August-September
September 2014
% change
Year to year
October 2015*
November 2015*
31.96
27.36
31.38
31.31
37.59
60.78
58.62
58.97
1.48%
-18.57%
-6.76%
2.50%
-18.37%
-53.93%
-52.36%
-52.63%
35.00
27.19
39.77
36.68
39.02
39.09
37.63
37.68
-7.4%
-18.0%
-26.4%
-12.5%
-21.4%
-28.4%
-25.8%
-25.9%
32.85
22.85
27.70
33.35
35.10
29.45
27.45
26.70
33.30
23.55
28.20
33.40
35.35
26.80
26.00
25.25
*As of September 29.

Source: Platts price database.
12
MEGAWATT DAILY
September, up 533 GWh from August and 623 GWh from 2014.
The excess wind generation offset cheaper fuel costs to drive spark
spreads down to only $10.10/MWh, $6 below August levels.
Indiana Hub Q4 prices higher

As of September 29, the Indiana Hub October and November
packages had premiums of about 4% over the September dayahead on-peak average, and the December packages premium was
about 5%.
Septembers average day-ahead on-peak price for the PJM
Interconnections Northern Illinois Hub, which includes the
Chicago area, increased 1.5% from the August average, but the
September price was down by more than 7% from September
2014.
The NI Hub October on-peak package as of September 29 had
a 1.3% premium over the September day-ahead on-peak average.
Novembers premium was almost 3%, and Decembers premium
was almost 4%.
In the Southwest Power Pool, SPP North Hub took a drubbing
month over month and year over year, while SPP South Hubs
decline was moderated month to month, but the year-over-year
drop was striking. Declines can be attributed to lower gas prices
and higher wind generation.
SPP North Hub day-ahead on-peak averaged $22.28/MWh in
September, down close to 19% from August and 18% from same
period in 2014.
SPP South Hub day-ahead on-peak averaged $29.26/MWh last
month, down 7% from August, but 26% lower than September
2014.
Natural gas prices in the SPP region averaged about $2.66/
MMBtu in September, down 12 cents from August and down
$1.24 from 2014. Additionally, wind generation accounted for
almost 14% of market share in September, up from 9% in August,
driving regional spark spreads down to just $1.54/MWh, Bentek
Energy data showed.
Judging by forward packages for the remainder of the year,
traders expected prices in SPP North Hub prices to be higher and
SPP South Hub prices to be lower.
As of September 29, SPP North Hub on-peak October had a
2.5% premium over Septembers average day-ahead on-peak price.
The November premium was almost 6%, and the December
premium was almost 7%.
At the same time, SPP South Hub on-peak October had a
discount of more than 5% from the September average day-ahead
on-peak price. The November discount was almost 4%, and the
December discount was more than 10%.
George McGuirk, Mark Watson and Eric Wieser
Michigan PSC study touts energy efficiency

While neighboring Ohio freezes its energy efficiency standards,
Michigans energy waste reduction efforts are saving customers
billions of dollars over the life of the programs, according to a
new study.
The report is indicating it is cost- effective, Judy Palnau,
13
Daily CSAPR allowance assessments, Oct 6 ($/st)

$/st
Nox Annual
NOx Seasonal
SO2 Group 1
SO2 Group 2
125.00
237.50
4.50
22.50
2015 Range
100.00-150.00
200.00-275.00
1.00-8.00
5.00-40.00
$/st
120.00
232.50
2.25
18.75
2016 Range
95.00-145.00
195.00-270.00
0.50-4.00
2.50-35.00
RGGI carbon allowance futures, Oct 5 ($/allowance)

ICE
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
V14
V14
V14
V14
V15
V15
V15
V15
V16
V16
V16
V16
Settlement
Volume
6.70
6.91
7.12
7.33
6.70
6.91
7.12
7.33
6.70
6.91
7.12
7.33
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is a carbon cap-and-trade program for power generators
in nine Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US states. One RGGI allowance is equivalent to one short
ton of CO2. The volume listed is the number of futures contracts traded. Each futures contract
represents 1,000 RGGI allowances.
spokeswoman for the Michigan Public Service Commission, said

Tuesday about her agencys newly released report on energy
efficiency, referred to in Michigan as energy optimization.
Since the programs started in 2009, shortly after former
Democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm signed into law PA 295, a
comprehensive energy bill, they have saved customers money
every year, the report found. Overall program expenditures of $1.1
billion from 2010 to 2014 are estimated to achieve lifetime
savings to all customers of $4.2 billion, nearly a four-fold return
on investment.
The cheapest energy is the energy never used, and this has
proven to be the case again with Michigans energy optimization
programs in 2014, PSC chairman John Quackenbush said.
Because they focus on reducing energy waste, energy efficiency
programs benefit all utility customers.
For every dollar that was spent on programs to save energy in
2014, customers can expect to realize $4.38 in savings, more than
any year since 2010, he said.
Customers who take advantage of energy efficiency programs
personally benefit even more, Quackenbush added.
Program expected to save $1.12 billion

Currently, the states energy savings targets are 1% of total
retail sales for electric providers and 0.75% of total retail sales for
gas providers on an annual basis. Last year, the programs
accounted for more than 1.4 million MWh in electric savings and
4.86 Bcf in gas savings.
In 2014 alone, aggregate energy efficiency program spending
of $257 million by all electric and natural gas utilities in Michigan
were expected to result in lifetime savings to customers of $1.12
billion, the report said.
MEGAWATT DAILY
Electric energy optimization savings 2009-2014 (TWh) in Michigan

8
7
6
5
6.1
4.7
4
3
2
1
0
6 Year Target
6 Year Actual
Source: Michigan Public Service Commission
In fact, the programs are doing so well in Michigan, and are so

popular with customers, some legislators and utilities say it may
be time to strip away the mandate and offer energy efficiency on a
voluntary basis.
The report underscores what we know, which is reducing
energy waste is a very popular concept with customers,
Consumers Energy spokesman Dan Bishop said Tuesday.
Customers like the specific, practical tips that help them lower
their energy bills and save money.
Consumers, a CMS Energy subsidiary with 1.8 million
customers, is the states second-largest electric utility, trailing DTE
Energy and its 2.1 million customers.
However, whether energy efficiency stays or goes as a mandate
will be up to the policymakers as they finalize deliberations on a
new comprehensive energy bill taking shape in the Legislature,
Bishop said. Preliminary votes could come before the end of
October in the Michigan House of Representatives, controlled by
Republicans as is the state Senate. Governor Rick Snyder also is a
member of the GOP.
Attracting the most attention so far among legislators is a
proposal to either eliminate Michigans retail open access law or
keep a hard, 10% cap on choice.
Some consumer advocates, including the Union of Concerned
Scientists, are urging lawmakers to keep the energy efficiency
mandate intact.
Snyder, re-elected to a second, four-year term last November,
has not said if he backs the mandate. But he is clearly an
outspoken advocate of what he calls energy waste reduction.
In a long-awaited energy speech in mid-March, Snyder said
Michigan must meet 30-40% of its energy needs by 2025 with
energy efficiency and renewables, with natural gas also playing a
key role in replacing the states heavy reliance on coal-fired
generation.
Bob Matyi
NV Energy lowers rates as wholesale prices fall

NV Energy, the regulated utility in Nevada owned by Warren
Buffets firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy, has lowered its
residential, commercial and industrial customer rates amid
historically low wholesale power prices.
On October 1 the Las Vegas-based utility announced that retail
14
rates in southern Nevada were to decrease 2.19%, while northern

Nevada residential, commercial and industrial electric customers
would see an overall electric rate decrease of 4%.
The company, which claimed in a recent earnings report that
it had higher regulated electric operating revenue in the second
quarter and first half of 2015, said last week that its rate
reductions were due to the companys management of costs
associated with fuel and purchased power used to provide
electricity. It said, These costs are passed through directly to our
customers, dollar for dollar, with no profit to the company.
NV Energy said that a typical southern Nevada single-family
residential customer bill of $149.71, based on average usage of
1,141 kilowatt-hours a month, will see a decrease of
approximately 1%, or $1.35. It said that, when added to a 3.13%
decrease on July 1, a typical southern Nevada single-family
residential customer monthly bill has been reduced $6.18 since
the beginning of the year.
NV Energy provides power to 1.3 million customers
throughout Nevada, plus nearly 40 million tourists annually.
There has been brewing discontent with NV Energy prices,
however. In May, three casinosMGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts and
Las Vegas Sandsfiled applications with the Public Utilities
Commission of Nevada seeking approval to buy energy, capacity,
and/or ancillary services from a provider of new electric
resources.
The casinos assertions have been that they could buy power
directly from new solar or wind installations at a cheaper price
than they have been paying NV Energy. The PUCN has not yet
ruled on the applications, but has indicated it could rule on it
before the end of the year. In the meantime, NV Energy has said it
will not increase its electric base rates for southern Nevada for
the next three years.
Wholesale power prices at nearby Mead Hub are as low as they
have been since June 2012. The average Mead day-ahead, on-peak
price in September was $31.33/MWh, and has fallen to $27.75/
MWh so far in October. This is against a $36.63/MWh monthly
average stretched out over four years.
The decline, though, in the Calendar Year 2016 Mead on-peak
forward price has been even more dramatic. In 2012, the average
June CY16 on-peak price was $49.23/MWh. It then declined
gradually to $41.95/MWh in January 2014. Seventeen months later,
in July 2015, the average CY16 price was $33.35/MWh. Thus far in
October, the average CY16 forward price has been $28.83/MWh.
Mead wholesale power prices ($/MWh)

80
70
Average of Mead day-ahead on-peak

Average of Mead on-peak CY16
60
50
40
30
20
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Source: Platts
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
MEGAWATT DAILY
NV Energys cost of purchased power could be pushed higher

by some of its agreements with renewable sources.
The states largest solar facility, the 110-MW Crescent Dune
concentrating solar thermal unit at Tonopah, Nevada, which has
been completed but not brought fully online, has a 25-year supply
contract with NV Energy. NV Energy will pay $135.00/MWh for
the power, and that price will increase 1% each year.
The company also is supplied power by 17 geothermal power
facilities located in the state with combined capacity of almost
400 MW.
According to data file with the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, Ormat Nevada, which operates many of the
geothermal units, was the third top seller of wholesale power into
the Mead Hub in the second quarter 2015. According to the data,
Ormat sold 210,781 MWh of geothermal power at an average
price of $8.67/MWh.
Jeffrey Ryser
Oncor deal, ERCOT fee hike on PUC agenda

Thursdays Public Utility Commission of Texas meeting will
focus on issues related to the sale of Texas largest transmission
system and a potential increase of the Electric Reliability Council
of Texas system administration fee.
The commission will consider a draft preliminary order laying
out 147 questions that should be addressed as the PUC considers
the September 29 joint application of Oncor Electric Delivery,
Ovation Acquisition I, Ovation Acquisition II and Shary Holdings
to restructure and transfer control of Oncor to Ovation I, Ovation
II and Shary Holdings, which are affiliates of Hunt Consolidated
(Docket No. 45188).
On August 9, the Ovation entities entered into a merger
agreement with Energy Future Holdings, which owns 80% of
Oncor, the states largest transmission company, and is in Chapter
11 bankruptcy proceedings, and Energy Future Intermediate
Holding Company.
That deal calls for Ovation I to acquire EFHs 80% stake in
Oncor, which would be reorganized into two companies. One of
these companies, Oncor AssetCo, would hold legal title to all
Oncor transmission and distribution assets. The other company,
Oncor OpCo, would operate the assets and hold Oncors
certificates of convenience and necessity and other personal
property. Shary Holdings, owned by Hunter Hunt and his family,
would have operational control of Oncor Opco. Ovation I would
indirectly own Oncor AssetCo and qualify to be taxed as a real
estate investment trust.
The transaction is part of EFHs fifth amended joint plan to
emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and must happen before the
joint plan can be completed.
Under state law, the PUC must rule on the application for
transfer of control by March 27, which is a Sunday. If the PUC
does not meet this deadline, the application is automatically
approved.
The commission plans to take final action on the issue at an
open meeting on March 24, the draft preliminary order states,
15
although it is likely it will deliberate on this matter at an earlier

open meeting.
In any event, at this time, the Commission intends to issue
its order on this matter on Friday, March 25, 2016, although that
date could slip, the draft preliminary order states.
Issues to be addressed include whether the transaction is in
the public interest, how the real estate investment trust structure
would affect ratepayers, whether the PUC would have to approve
any lease agreements between the AssetCo and Opco, and how
the bankrupt parent companys debt burden might affect the
AssetCo and OpCo.
In other business, the PUC will consider ERCOTs budget for
2016 and 2017 and whether to approve an increase in the system
administration fee from 45.6 cents/MWh to 55.5 cents/MWh
(Docket No. 38533).
ERCOTs proposed budget is $219.9 million for 2016 and 223.1
million for 2017. The 2015 budget called for spending almost
$195 million.
One reason to increase the fee increase is that load is expected
to grow more slowly than inflation, a memo filed Thursday by
PUC counsel Thomas Hunter states.
While the Texas economy is still healthy and growing, the
decoupling of economic growth and load growth is a challenge
for ERCOTs model of funding, which is based almost exclusively
on megawatt hours used by Texas consumers, the memo states.
ERCOT observes that while its revenues are sensitive to energy
consumption, the costs of meeting its statutory obligations
seldom are.
Mark Watson
EIA forecasts drop in winter heating expenditure

Expectations for winter temperatures to be above the 10-year
average across much of the US would drag natural gas
expenditures for the average household down 10% from last
winters costs, the Energy Information Administration said
Tuesday in its monthly outlook.
The agencys October Short-Term Energy Outlook, which took
a hard look at projected winter fuel needs, forecast residential gas
demand to fall 6% this winter.
US electricity generation by fuel (GWh/d)

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
Coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydropower
Other sources
Note: Data for 2015 and 2016 are forecasts.
Source: EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook
2014
Petroleum
Renewables
2016
MEGAWATT DAILY
Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are expected to be 13% below
last winters prices, EIA said, but residential prices for gas will only
see a 4% decline from last winter. EIA explained that changes in
spot prices do not quickly translate into lower delivered residential
prices as the rates utilities charge are often set by state utility
commissions a year or more in advance and reflect the cost of gas
purchased over many months. The agency added that residential
prices also include a fixed component to cover utility operating
costs and the cost to transport the natural gas.
Nearly half of all US households keep warm during the winter
with gas.
Natural gas supplies should be adequate to meet demand this
winter, as average household natural gas consumption during the
heating season is expected to be the lowest in four years, EIA
Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement Tuesday.
He added, If winter temperatures come in as expected by US
government weather forecasters, US consumers will pay less to
stay warm this winter no matter what heating fuel they use.
About 39% of US households rely on electricity as their
primary heating source. Those households are expected to spend
about $30, or 3%, less on heating costs this winter as a result of
1% lower residential electricity prices and 2% lower consumption
than last winter, EIA said.
However, these projections, EIA cautioned, are based on the
latest forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, and weather can be unpredictable.
Under a 10% colder scenario, EIA projects natural gas
consumption to be 1% higher than last year, but expenditures
would still be 4% lower than last year. Under a 10% warmer
scenario, EIA expects declines of 14% in consumption and 17% in
expenditures compared with last year, the agency said.
For households that heat with electricity, a colder winter
would see a 1% rise in residential electricity demand, with
expenditures expected to be flat from last winter, EIA said.
Residential electricity prices would not rise immediately, but the
US natural gas supply and demand

120
(Bcf/d)
(Year-over-year change, Bcf/d)
effect of colder temperatures would pass through to retail

electricity rates over the succeeding months of 2016.
The report highlighted that pipeline constraints continue to
pose a threat to gas-fired generation, so day-to-day price volatility
was still likely for the winter.
But an analyst speaking at a supply and demand forecast event
Tuesday said that he believed the market was tremendously
overpricing New England gas this winter out of fear, autocorrelation and the I dont know factors inherent to such
projections.
Charles Blanchard, lead natural gas analyst at Bloomberg New
Energy Finance, referred to spot gas prices at the Algonquin
Citygate hub as a spiky market that must be thought about in
terms of the frequency of price spikes and the level to which
prices will spike.
We determined, given NOAAs outlook on temperatures this
year, how many price spikes should there be, and its fewer than
last year, he told attendees at the 2015 Winter Energy Outlook
Conference hosted by DOEs Office of Electricity Delivery and
Energy Reliability, EIA and the National Association of State
Energy Officials.
Further, he said price spikes would be constrained to the cost
of generators fuel alternatives, which in New England are LNG
and oil. Both of those are much cheaper than they were last
winter, he said.
According to Blanchard, distillate fuel oil is currently priced at
about $11.50/MMBtu delivered to Boston, while residual oil is at
about $7.50/MMBtu. Spot LNG prices are closer to $7/MMBtu now
as well.
So whereas last year you might have had the spike to $12,
$13, $15 for LNG, this year you dont have to spike too much
above $7 to get hold of incremental gas or incremental negative
molecules of gas by oil switching, Blanchard said.
Fear and the natural auto-correlation phenomenon, where
individuals assume this winter will be bad because the last two
winters bad, were driving expectations for higher gas prices in
New England.
Blanchard added that the pipeline capacity issues that have
driven up New England gas prices in the past would probably be
100
80
60
40
20
-2
-4
2016
2013
2014
2015
Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)
Total production (left axis)
Production forecast (left axis)
Electric power demand (right axis)
Residential and commercial demand (right axis)
Industrial demand (right axis)
Other demand (right axis)
Henry Hub natural gas price ($/MMBtu)

7
6
5
2
1
0
2014
2015
2016
Spot price
NYMEX futures price
Forecast price
95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval
Note: Data for October 2015 and beyond are forecasts.

Note: Data for October 2015 and beyond are forecasts.

16
MEGAWATT DAILY
solved by the addition of one or two new pipelines in the pretty

near future.
Sieminski noted that gas-fired electricity generation surpassed
generation from coal for July the second time that has ever
happened. But higher natural gas prices by February are expected
to keep the amount of natural gas-fired electric generation below
coal-fired generation levels at least through the winter months,
Sieminski said.
EIA lowered its forecast for fourth-quarter Henry Hub natural
gas spot prices to $2.83/MMBtu, 12 cents below its estimate in
September. The agency expects monthly average spot prices to
remain lower than $3/MMBtu through January, and lower than
$3.50/MMBtu through the end of 2016, the report said.
The report added that Henry Hub natural gas prices are
projected to average $2.81/MMBtu in 2015 and $3.05/MMBtu in
2016.
Despite these relatively low gas prices, increases in drilling
efficiency will continue to support growing natural gas
production, EIA said.
The agency raised its natural gas marketed production estimate
for Q3 by 350 MMcf/d to 79.37 Bcf/d, while its Q4 estimate was
unchanged at 79.61 Bcf/d.
The report added that gas marketed production is expected to
grow at an annual rate of 5.6% in 2015 to 79.06 Bcf/d and at 1.9%
in 2016 to 80.58 Bcf/d.
Production continues to outpace demand through EIAs
forecasted period.
The agency raised its Q3 demand estimate by 320 MMcf/d to
66.39 Bcf/d, while lowering its Q4 demand estimate by 1 Bcf/d to
77.99 Bcf/d.
EIA said that demand for US gas for the full year is expected to
average 76.20 Bcf/d 320 MMcf/d below last months estimate
compared with 73.15 Bcf/d in 2014.
By sector, gas demand for power is projected to rise in 2015,
supported by gas prices below $3/MMBtu, but fall off in 2016 as
gas prices edge up, EIA said. Industrial sector consumption
remains flat in 2015 and increases by 4.2% in 2016, as new
industrial projects, particularly in the fertilizer and chemicals
sectors, come online late this year and next year, and as industrial
consumers continue to experience low natural gas prices, the
agency said.
Gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is
forecast to decline in both 2015 and 2016, the report said.
Jasmin Melvin
satisfying concerns raised by the parties in this proceeding, the

filing with the PSC made Tuesday said.
That decision spurred negotiations to reach a strong package
of commitments that would satisfy the commissions public
interest standard, the filing said.
The DC consumer advocate, the Office of the Peoples
Counsel, and others joined the settlement.
The bottom line, this is a good deal, Sandra Mattavosa-Frye,
the Peoples Counsel, said.
The most important aspects are the checks and balances that
include ways to measure and verify Exelons commitments to
renewable generation, the peoples counsel said.
The settlement also addresses issues that slowed
interconnection of solar, for example, Mattavosa-Frye said.
Interconnection agreements will no longer take months and
the $100 fee will be eliminated, she said.
Exelon and the city have asked the PSC whether the
agreement must be filed as a new merger application or whether it
can be considered as part of the application that was rejected by
the PSC in August.
The Joint Applicants believe that the Commission can and
should consider the Settlement Agreement as part of [the existing
case], the filing said.
The company and the city believe the commission has the
authority to modify its prior decision.
Others disagree, however, Any prospective settlement has
Advertisement
DC, Exelon reach agreement merger...from page 1

sustainability issues, the mayor said. Included in the settlement
was an agreement to pursue the purchase of additional of wind
generation, 100 MW in total, to power DC buildings, Bowser said.
The mayors office has asked the PSC to support the
settlement.
In August, the Commission rejected the proposed merger as
filed and noted that there was no settlement brought to the
commission that would have evidenced general agreement
17
MEGAWATT DAILY
been acknowledged by the mayors office to require a new filing

by the parties necessitating additional public review and a new
proceeding, a view with which we concur, the DC Public Power
said in a filing made the PSC last week.
New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware have approved the
merger, although the Maryland approval is being challenged in
state court.
Pepco Holdings owns Atlantic City Electric in New Jersey,
Delmarva Power in Delaware and Maryland and Pepco in
Maryland and DC.
Mary Powers
Regional spark spread trends ($/MWh)

40
35
30
25
August
September
October
20
15
10
5
0
ISONE
Internal
Hub
NYISO
N.Y.C.
Zone
MISO
Indiana
Hub
ERCOT
North
Hub
SPP
North
Hub
PJM
Western
Hub
CAISO
SP15
Gen Hub
Source: Platts
Spark spreads mixed amid drop in gas...from page 1

Regional trends mixed for gas-fired generators
Gas-fired generators in the Northeast and Midwest have
benefited from firming power prices on account of unseasonably
high September demand, while generation margins were pressured
in the rest of the country by factors like higher than normal wind
generation or regionally elevated gas prices.
Temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast about 3-4 degrees
above normal sustained cooling demand and drove elevated
power usage. Average September peak load registered 5% higher
than 2014 in ISO-NE and MISO and 8% higher in NYISO.
Elevated demand in these regions propped up power prices in
the face of falling fuel costs, and gas-fired generators saw market
clearing spark spreads rise approximately $3-4/MWh.
While ERCOT and SPP also saw higher-than-normal peak load
and falling gas prices in September, high levels of wind generation
weighed on power prices driving spark spreads lower.
Average peak load in ERCOT was 5% higher this September
compared to last year, but total wind generation climbed almost
5% from August and accounted for approximately 9.3% of the
fuel mix in September, up from 7.7% in August and 6.3% in
September 2014.
ERCOT reached a new record wind generation peak on
September 13 of 11,467 MW, which was at the time serving close
to 30% of the load.
As a result, spark spreads at ERCOT North Hub fell to $13.05/
MWh, less than half of August levels. Ignoring peak demand days
in August, which lead to scarcity pricing events in ERCOT,
September spark spreads were still down almost $9/MWh.
Recent low
7
5
3
1
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Year-to-date spark spreads decline

On a national level, power prices have fallen faster than gas
price pushing the year-to-date simple average spark spread down
67 cents to $16.11/MWh.
Spark spreads in CAISO, PJM, ISO-NE, and SPP have all slid more
than 10% year over year. SPP has seen the biggest decline with yearto-date average spark spreads down over 35% to $19.05/MWh.
Spark spreads in the MISO region have increased 3% to
$15.20/MWh so far in 2015.
Despite recent downward trends, ERCOT spark spreads have
increased 15%, which have averaged $11.67/MWh this year.
Gas-fired generators in NYISO have posted the highest average
spark spreads in 2015 at $22.53/MWh, up over 20% from last
year.
George McGuirk
Generators lobby for rule change...from page 1
Henry hub cash gas price history ($/MWh)

Price
Similarly, gas prices in SPP averaged about $2.66/MMBtu in

September, down 12 cents/MMBtu from August and $1.24/MMBtu
from 2014. Wind generation, however, accounted for almost 14%
of market share in September, up from 9% in August, driving
spark spreads at SPP North Hub down almost $4/MWh from
August to settle at $16.81/MWh.
PJM and CAISO also saw falling spark spreads in September,
however, these declines were the result of regional gas price
increases. Gas prices for generators in the PJM Western region also
climbed 21% over August to hit $1.42/MMBtu in September.
Average gas prices for generators in the CAISO SP15 region climbed
39% from August to an average of $3.51/MMBtu in September.
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Source: Platts
18
flexibility to manage the risk, OConnell said.

Under current rules, the over performing unit would receive a
payment, but it would not approach the penalty incurred by the
underperforming unit, he said.
OConnells clients, who have not been made public, also
proposed allowing unaffiliated units to trade replacement capacity
between under performing and over performing units and reach
an agreement within three days to avoid a penalty.
Basically we want the ability to manage risk we are saddled
with in a way other than writing a check, OConnell said, noting
MEGAWATT DAILY
that regulators do not fully understand the financial strain that

the capacity performance penalties put on small generators.
OConnell expects PJMs markets and reliability committee to
vote on the issue at its November meeting.
Ken Foladare, senior project engineer with Tangibl, an
engineering based professional services firm in Pennsylvania, also
offered a solution to a problem he sees with PJMs force majeure
language in the capacity performance rules.
Under PJM rules, a generator would be penalized if it is called
upon during a capacity performance period but it cannot deliver
because of a local transmission outage. If PJM deems it not a
system wide issue, a penalty will be assessed, Foladare said
Tuesday in an interview.
Based on this years capacity performance auction results, a

generator could be liable for up to two and a half times its annual
capacity payment, Foladare said.
We understand the need for strict performance requirements,
but when it is out of the control of the generators it presents an
issue, Foladare said.
Generators can make adjustments to have the fuel on hand to
operate a unit, but it can do nothing about transmission service,
Foladare said.
PJM can clearly define issues outside a sellers control, Foladare
said. There should be an exception and we are asking them to
revisit the issue, he said.
Mary Powers
Volume 20 / Issue 193 / Wednesday, October 7, 2015
MEGAWATT DAILY
ISSN # 1088-4319
Megawatt Daily Questions? Email:
Correspondents
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Housley Carr
Manager North America Gas and

Power Content
Ethan Howland
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Mary Powers
Matthew Eversman,
+1-713-655-2238
Editorial Director, North American

Gas and Power Pricing
Beth McKay, +1-713-655-2258
Mark Callahan
Anne Swedberg, +1-720-264-6728

Editors
Editorial Director, North American

Gas and Power Content
Jeff Ryser, +1-713-658-3225
Bob Matyi
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[ELECTRIC POWER ]

DC, Exelon reach agreement for Pepco merger

(continued on page 17)

Spark spreads vary amid drop in power prices

(continued on page 18)

Generators lobby for portfolio netting rule

(continued on page 18)

Price trends at key trading points ($/MWh)

Low and high average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Day-ahead bilateral indexes and spark spreads for Oct 7

Inside this Issue

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2015

ISONE & NYISO nuclear generation outages (GW)

Mass Hub steady in mid-$30s/MWh

Northeast dailies were mixed Tuesday amid stable demand

Northeast spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

Transco zone 6 N.Y.

Northeast load and generation mix forecast (GWh)

Daily generation outage references

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

ISONE day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Northeast Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Oct 6 ($/MWh)

Prompt month: Nov 15

*Ontario prices are in Canadian dollars

N.Y. Zone G: Forward curve on-peak ($/MWh)

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2015

N.Y. Zone G: Marginal heat rate on-peak (Btu/kWh)

NYISO day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Generation unit outage report

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2015

Southeast & Central day-ahead bilateral indexes for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

ERCOT dailies down 41% from 2014 values

Southeast load and generation mix forecast (GWh)

ERCOT & SPP nuclear generation outages (GW)

Southeast & Central spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

Panhandle, Tx. Okla.

Houston Ship Channel

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

ERCOT average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Southeast & Central Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Oct 6 ($/MWh)

ERCOT South: Marginal heat rate on-peak (Btu/kWh)

MISO South average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Prompt month: Nov 15

ERCOT South: Forward curve on-peak ($/MWh)

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2015

Generation unit outage report

SPP average day-ahead LMP for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

Southeast near-term bilateral markets ($/MWh)

Southeast & Central

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2015

Western day-ahead bilateral indexes for Oct 7 ($/MWh)

SP15 values inch up in mid-$30s/MWh

CAISO nuclear generation outages (GW)

Western spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

NW, Can. Bdr. (Sumas)

SoCal Gas city-gate

Western load and generation mix forecast (GWh)