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Cyclical Behavior of High Tech Industries: Reaction To Economic Swings
Cyclical Behavior of High Tech Industries: Reaction To Economic Swings
Cyclical Behavior of High Tech Industries: Reaction To Economic Swings
Many high tech industries posted remarkable growth during the 1972-84 period . (See table l .) For example, employment in communications services (not elsewhere
classified), which includes industries involved in cablevision
service delivery and home Tv antenna construction, more
than quintupled during this period . Computer and data processing services grew almost as fast (345 percent) . Five
other industries grew more than 80 percent from 1972 to
1983-surgical, medical, and dental instruments and supplies ; optical instruments and lenses ; office computing and
accounting machines ; crude petroleum and natural gas; and
engineering and architectural services .
Not all high tech industries posted such remarkable growth
rates. Of the 48 high tech industries, 16 had faster employment growth rates than nonagricultural employment,
which grew 27 .8 percent during the 1972-84 period . Sixteen high tech industries had employment reductions during
this period, including radio and Tv receiving equipment
( - 35 percent) and plastics materials and synthetics ( - 25
percent) . Four other industries lost one job in six over these
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW May 1985 " Cyclical Behavior of High Tech Industries
Table 1 .
[In thousands]
sic
code
Industry
131
162
282
283
284
285
286
291
Petroleum refining
281
287
289
301
324
348
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
369
371
372
376
381
382
. . .
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. .
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. .
.,
. .
. .
. .
. .
.,
. .
. .
. .
Agricultural chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Miscellaneous chemical products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
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.,
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
383
384
386
483
491
493
506
Electric services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Combination electric, gas, and utility services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wholesale trade, electrical goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
489
508
737
7391
891
892
.
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. . . . . . . . . . . .
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1972
Employment
1984
I
I
139.7
495.1
250 .8
540 .6
I, III
1,11,111
1, 111
1, 111
I, III
228.7
159.2
122 .4
68 .6
142 .8
175.8
200.7
148.1
61 .7
163.2
I, III
I, III
1, 111
I, III
I, III
I, III
I
I
1
1, 111
I
1, 11, 111
I
I, III
I, III
141 .2
56 .4
90 .0
151 .4
122 .1
31 .9
81 .9
114.6
135.0
293.7
286.0
176.9
267.5
259.6
164.4
128.4
209.3
I
I
1, 111
1, 11, 111
1, 11, 111
I, III
I
186.9
204.4
139.5
458 .4
354.8
131 .7
874.8
I, II, III
I, III
92 .5
64 .5
1, 11, 111
1, 111
I, III
I, III
I, III
I
I
494 .9
61 .1
93 .5
150 .1
101 .3
26 .2
67 .5
113.5
115.3
1972-84
79 . 5
9. 2
11 . 3
-23 . 1
26 . 1
21 . 0
-10 . 1
14 .3
8 .3
3 .9
- .9
-17 . 0
-17 . 9
-17 . 6
-1 . 0
-14.6
276.0
310.2
168.5
276.9
505.7
180.7
114.1
213.1
-6 . 0
8. 5
-4 . 7
3. 5
94 . 8
9. 9
-11 . 1
1 .8
601 .4
21 .5
153.1
204 .0
90 .2
614.8
684.9
160.1
867.3
-18 . 1
- .2
-35.3
34 .1
93 .0
21 . 6
- .9
152.7
80 .2
65 . 1
24 .3
32 .1
175.5
126.0
229.8
82 . 4
93 . 9
7. 6
61 .0
159 .6
251 .8
29 .7
152 .5
413 .5
438.8
199.3
467.5
40. 6
8.7
41 . 2
475.3
181 .3
615.6
109.9
345.5
63 .8
81 .4
-1 .7
17 .6
90 .5
117.1
142.7
I
I
I
312.0
183.4
331 .2
I, III
I, III
1
I
106.7
110.7
339.3
111 .8
157 .1
Percent change
868 .6
1,400 .8
57 .8
61 .3
neers, life and physical scientists, mathematical specialists, engineering and science tech-
workers equal to or greater than the average for all manufacturing industries, and a ratio
Group II comprises industries with a ratio of R&D expenditures to net sales at least twice
manufacturing industries which provide technical support to high tech manufacturing in-
nicians, and computer specialists) at least 1 .5 times the average for all industries .
the average for all industries .
Of R&D expenditures to sales close to or above the average for all industries . Two nondustries also are included .
Thousands
13600
13600
13100
13100
12600
12600
12100
12100
11600
11600
11100
11100
10600
10600
10100
10100
9600
9600
1972 1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 1978
Thousands
2850
2750
2650
2550
2850
2750
2650
2550
2450
2350
High tech II
2450
2350
2250
2150
2050
1950
1850
1750
0
1972
1973
1974
1975 1976
1977 1978
Thousands
L-- 1
2250
2150
2050
1950
1850
1750
Thousands
6300
6300
6100
6100
5900
5900
5700
5700
5500
5500
5300
5300
5100
5100
4900
4900
4700
4700
4500
4500
4300
0
t
1972
1973
1974
1975
I
1976
I
1977
A
1978
1979
1980 1981
4300
NOTE : Shaded area denotes recession, as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research .
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW May 1985 " Cyclical Behavior of High Tech Industries
115
115
110
105
110
High tech III
105
High tech II
\~ ,00'~Nonfarm
r"r
100
95
100
""
95
High tech I
90
90
Manufacturing
85
85
1983
1982
1981
1984
NOTE : Shaded area denotes recession, as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research .
Employment in high technology, manufacturing, and nonfarm industries during the 1981-82 recession
[Numbers m thousands]
Industry
Indust
High tech 1
High tech II
High tech III
Trough
Prerecession peak
Peak-to-trough
em p lo y m e nt loss
Date
Number
13,030
June 1981
11,897
January 1983
June 1984
8 7
2,504
February 1983
July 1983
2 2
5,626
February 1983
February 1984
2,561
5,943
December 1981
September 1981
Manufacturing
July 1981
18 .041
Nonfarm
91,460
July 1981
88,646
12
Date prerecession
peak regained
Number
20,341
NOTE :
Date
The high technology industry data have not been seasonally adjusted . Analysis
December 1982
December 1982
(1)
November 1983
(in
ercent)
5 .3
11 3
3 .1
of these series has shown that the seasonal component is quite small compared to the
trend cycle . Nonfarm data have been seasonally adjusted . See table 1 for definition of high
technology industries .
Table 3 . Employ ment in high technology industries for all States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, 1981, 1982, and 1983 annual averages
[In thousands]
Group I
State
United States . . . . . .
1981
1982
1983
12,876 .5
12,413 .0
12,181 .8
California . . . . . . .
Texas . . . . . . . . . . .
New York . . . . . . . .
1 , 534.8
1 , 055.6
917.5
1,522.9
1,039.8
905.4
1,537 .6
968.0
882.8
Illinois . . . . . . . . . .
Pennsylvania . . . . . .
716 .0
628 .6
652 .7
598.5
615.6
571 .2
722 .1
691 .4
Ohio . . . . . . . . . . .
Michigan . . . . . . . .
511 .4
441 .9
New Jersey . . . . . . .
Massachusetts . . . . .
Florida . . . . . . . . . .
359.2
Indiana . . . . . . . . . .
367.2
Wisconsin . . . . . . . .
Virginia . . . . . . . . . .
274.3
283.1
222.3
Minnesota . . . . . . . .
Tennessee . . . . . . . .
233 .2
233 .3
Connecticut . . . . . . .
North Carolina . . . . .
Missouri . . . . . . . . .
Georgia
285 .7
265 .1
. . . . . . . . .
212 .1
219 .4
Louisiana
. . . . . . . .
Maryland
. . . . . . . .
191 .6
South Carolina . . . . .
Arizona . . . . . . . . . .
Alabama . . . . . . . . .
146 .7
150 .1
Washington . . . . . . .
Colorado . . . . . . . . .
Oklahoma . . . . . . . .
Kentucky . . . . . . . . .
Kansas . . . . . . . . . .
Iowa . . . . . . . . . . .
Arkansas . . . . . . . .
213.6
180.5
192.6
137.7
152.9
153 .8
153 .8
Oregon . . . . . . . . . .
Mississippi . . . . . . .
New Hampshire . . . .
Puerto Rico . . . . . .
Utah . . . . . . . . . . .
West Virginia . . . . . .
Delaware . . .
Nebraska . .
New Mexico
Rhode Island
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Idaho . . . . . . . . . . .
90 .9
96 .4
87 .5
70 .2
73 .5
65 .4
63 .9
56 .7
58 .9
49 .7
38 .4
32 .7
660 .3
631 .4
506 .5
435 .3
362.7
634 .9
627 .4
507 .2
442 .8
367.9
336.5
326.0
263.2
260.8
224.3
260.6
250.6
234.0
276 .1
262 .3
215 .5
224.4
219.3
209 .2
270 .6
264 .8
225 .3
223.3
217.4
198 .0
State
Group II
1981
1982
1983
United States . . . . . .
2,562 .5
2,555 .6
2,578 .7
California . . . . . . . .
New York . . . . . . . .
Massachusetts . . . . .
592.7
201 .8
158.3
609.3
202.4
158.5
624.5
202.9
167.2
Florida . . . . . . . . . .
Connecticut . . . . . . .
102 .0
99 .0
106.3
97 .0
107.7
97 .4
Texas . . . . . . . . . .
New Jersey . . . . . . .
Pennsylvania . . . . . .
Illinois . . . . . . . . . .
Washington . . . . . . .
160 .5
113 .3
94 .6
98 .4
90 .5
155 .0
115 .4
90 .8
93.7
87 .6
Ohio . . . . . . . . . . .
73 .5
70 .1
Indiana . . . . . . . . .
Minnesota . . . . . . .
North Carolina . . . . .
65 .9
53 .3
44 .8
61 .7
54 .7
44 .9
Arizona . . . . . . . . .
Montana . . . . . . . . .
Colorado
. . . . . . . .
Maryland . . . . . . . .
Kansas . . . . . . . . . .
Georgia
. . . . . . . . .
68 .1
61 .8
39 .5
33 .7
50 .9
25 .7
68 .3
59 .4
42 .8
36 .0
40 .4
27 .4
155 .6
118 .6
89 .8
86 .1
78 .1
69 .6
57 .8
54 .7
47 .8
269.7
269.4
259.7
256.5
. . . . . . . . .
Minnesota . . . . . . .
Michigan . . . . . . . .
Washington . . . . . . .
119.5
128.4
129.3
Indiana
Missouri . . . . . . . . .
North Carolina . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
191 .0
Colorado
144 .2
144 .3
144 .9
143 .9
Alabama . . . . . . . . .
Utah . . . . . . . . . . .
19 .9
21 .1
21 .8
22 .2
25 .0
23 .9
Louisiana .
Kansas . .
134.6
139.6
138 .1
134 .8
85 .2
89 .4
83 .7
72 .6
69 .8
66 .9
61 .9
55 .8
55 .1
51 .8
36 .3
31 .3
139.5
134.7
133 .6
126 .8
87 .6
86 .3
82 .7
73 .5
70 .1
67 .8
58 .1
56 .2
53 .4
51 .4
36 .0
31 .1
Oklahoma . . . . . . . .
Tennessee . . . . . . .
Oregon . . . . . . . . .
South Carolina . . . . .
Vermont . . . . . . . . .
Iowa . . . . . . . . . . .
Wisconsin . . . . . . .
Nebraska . . . . . . . .
Kentucky . . . . . . . .
Louisiana . . . . . . . .
New Mexico . . . . . .
Maine
. . . . . . . . . .
Rhode Island . . . . . .
Arizona
. . . . . . . . .
Mississippi . . . . . . .
Idaho . . . . . . . . . . .
30 .4
25 .9
20 .2
23 .6
17 .9
14 .5
14 .0
13 .2
14 .0
12 .1
11 .5
10 .7
9.7
6.7
7 .8
7.8
5 .4
5 .9
4 .4
28 .8
26 .3
21 .7
22 .3
16 .4
15 .3
14 .8
13 .2
28 .3
27 .7
25 .5
Oklahoma .
18 .0
16 .7
2 .7
Alaska . . . . . . . . . .
Hawaii . . . . . . . . . .
Virgin Islands . . . . .
(1)
(')
(1)
. . . . . . . . .
9.4
10 .1
7.7
Arizona
Iowa . . . . . . . . . .
Mississippi . . . . . .
7.7
New Mexico .
7 .9
7.8
5 .3
5.6
4.7
11 .2
10 .4
8 .0
6 .4
6.2
5.5
16 .4
16 .7
2 .9
Oregon
9.6
9.5
8.0
11 .6
10 .6
0 .3
2
3
New Hampshire .
Kentucky . . . . . .
12 .4
Wyoming . . . . . . . .
Montana . . . . . . . . .
1 .8
1 .3
6
13 .5
District of Columbia . .
19 .5
18 .4
Delaware . . . . . . . .
West Virginia . . . . . .
North Dakota . . . . . .
. . .
12 .9
19 .6
25 .2
18 .2
28 .7
27 .5
24 .2
. .
21 .8
16 .3
20 .6
29 .3
26 .4
23 .6
Arizona . . . . . . . .
Georgia . . . . . . .
South Carolina . . . . .
Puerto Rico . . . . .
Alabama . . . .
15 .9
13 .9
128 .3
120 .6
Virginia . . . . . . . . .
Wisconsin . . . . . . .
28 .8
Michigan . . . . . . . .
Puerto Rico . . . . . . .
Virginia . . . . . . . . .
164.0
169.1
26 .8
188.2
186.7
170.5
258 .0
182 .4
Florida . . . . . . . . . .
26 .6
20 .0
. . . . .
287.0
285.5
316 .9
300 .9
Ohio . . . . . . . . . . .
Connecticut . . . . . . .
New Hampshire . . . .
Montana . . . .
Wyoming . . .
South Dakota .
Alaska . . . . .
Hawaii .
Virgin Islands
Illinois . . . . . . . . . .
Pennsylvania . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
3 .2
2 .6
14 .5
17 .1
3 .4
960.3
473.1
363.3
Maryland
3 .0
2 .8
. . . .
5 .701 .0
940 .1
489 .3
366 .8
29 .5
3 .5
2 .7
. . . .
5,736 .5
929 .1
491 .7
375.8
. . . . . . .
South Dakota . . . . .
Nevada . . . . . . . . .
25 .4
20 .1
5,859 .9
California
New York . . . . . . . .
Texas . . . . . . . . . .
Tennessee
37 .5
37 .2
31 .1
30 .1
. . . .
. . . .
United States . . . . . .
43 .8
31 .4
31 .2
.
.
.
.
1983
68 .6
59 .7
33 .1
32 .3
29 .8
26 .2
22 .8
1982
New Jersey . . . . . . .
Massachusetts . . . . .
District of Columbia . .
Vermont . . . . . . . . .
Maine . . . . . . . . . . .
Nevada . . . . . . . . . .
North Dakota . . . . . .
1981
196 .0
201 .1
189.0
187.3
Group III
State
1 .3
1 .1
0.6
0 .2
0 .3
(')
(')
(1)
1 .2
1 .1
5
(1)
(')
(1)
3
3
Delaware . . . . . . .
Utah . . . . . . . . . . .
West Virginia .
Nebraska
. .
. . . .
. . . .
109 .3
97 .7 .
110.9
85 .9
312 .6
299 .9
239 .5
178 .5
167.6
153.2
125 .1
119 .5
119.0
121 .2
121 .7
106 .2
99 .8
103.3
87 .0
313 .9
306 .5
232 .4
175 .6
170 .9
148 .3
124 .7
122 .2
120.0
119.0
114.2
105 .0
104.7
97 .3
91 .0
81 .4
87 .1
89 .3
66 .4
76 .3
64 .3
64 .3
60 .1
59 .5
86 .5
68 .1
70 .4
54 .0
49 .2
44 .2
48 .5
45 .9
86 .5
70 .2
70 .6
51 .9
50 .2
44 .1
43 4
44 .8
86 .5
74 .0
69 .2
52 .2
52 .0
45 .1
42 .9
42 .4
42 .0
40 .8
39 .5
34 8
36 6
28 .5
32 .3
34 .3
26 .3
33 .3
31 .7
28 .5
38 .6
32 .2
28 .1
19 .2
21 .2
38 .4
33 .5
27 .4
20 .6
20 .2
19 .9
17 .4
37 .8
35 .7
25 .4
21 .6
20 .4
19 .7
16 .6
Vermont . . .
Rhode Island .
. . . .
19 .8
17 .9
Idaho . . . . . .
Maine . . . . .
. . . .
. . . .
13 .9
13 .6
14 .1
12 .9
14 9
12 .6
Montana . . . . . . . . .
2 .4
2 .3
2 .3
Nevada . . . . . . . .
South Dakota . . . . .
District of Columbia . .
Wyoming . . . . . . . .
Hawaii . . .
Virgin Islands
North Dakota
Alaska . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
10 .6
6.1
3.8
2.7
2.3
2 .0
1 .4
9
11 .1
5.8
3.4
2.5
2.1
1 .9
1 .3
1 .1
11 .4
6.0
3~ 5
2.2
2 .1
1 .6
1 .3
1 .1
NOTE : States are ranked by 1983 high technology employment . See table 1 for definition
13
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW May 1985 * Cyclical Behavior of High Tech Industries
(group II), which have relatively large concentrations of
highly skilled workers and relatively large R&D expenditures,
were less affected by general economic downturns than industries in groups I and III, which include industries with
lesser concentrations of highly skilled workers and lower
R&D expenditures .
Employment by State
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Florida . . . .
New York . .
Texas . . . . .
Maryland . . .
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Rhodelsland
Alabama . . .
Illinois . . . .
Maine . . . . .
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Nebraska . . .
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Ohio . . . . . .
Oregon . . . .
South Dakota
Georgia . . . .
Iowa . . . . . .
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South Carolina
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Arkansas . . .
Michigan . . .
Tennessee . .
Kentucky . . .
Mississippi .
Louisiana . . .
Nevada . . . .
Wisconsin . .
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West Virginia . . .
District of CcPambia
Montana . . . . . . .
Wyoming . . . . . .
Alaska . . . . . . . .
Hawa ;+ . . . . . . . .
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7 .1
6.8
6.4
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6 .3
4 .9
4 .3
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4 .2
4 .1
3 .8
3 .3
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2 .9
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2 .8
2 .8
2 .5
2 .2
2 .0
2 .0
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1 .9
1 .9
1 .9
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1 .9
1 .7
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1 .2
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NOTE :
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1 .2
1 .2
.9
.9
.9
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8
.6
.6
6
.5
2
2
1
1
.1
(~)
FOOTNOTES
Richard W. Riche, Daniel E. Hecker, and John U . Burgan, "High
technology today and tomorrow : a small slice of the employment pie,"
Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp . 50-58 .
'The industry employment statistics cited in this study are from two
Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll employment programs-the Current
Employment Statistics and ES-202 programs . The industry classifications
are taken from the Office of Management and Budget, 1972 Standard
Industrial Classification Manual, as amended in 1977 .'
Employment estimates for the Nation were compiled from the Current
Employment Statistics survey . These data are produced from employer
payroll records reported to the Bureau on a voluntary basis each month.
Self-employed persons and others not on a regular civilian payroll are
outside the scope of the survey .
Industry detail within the high technology groups, as well as national