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Cancer Incidence and Mortality, 1973 - 1995: Communication
Cancer Incidence and Mortality, 1973 - 1995: Communication
Cancer Incidence and Mortality, 1973 - 1995: Communication
COMMUNICATION
American Cancer Society,
National Cancer Institute,
and Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention
Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda,
Maryland.
3
Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, Hyattsville, Maryland.
4
Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention
and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
BACKGROUND. The American Cancer Society, the National Cancer Institute (NCI),
and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention including the National Center
for Health Statistics (NCHS) agreed to produce together an annual Report Card
to the nation on progress related to cancer prevention and control in the U.S.
METHODS. This report provides average annual percent changes in incidence and
mortality during 19731990 and 19901995, plus age-adjusted cancer incidence
and death rates for whites, blacks, Asians and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics.
Information on newly diagnosed cancer cases is based on data collected by NCI,
and information on cancer deaths is based on underlying causes of death as reported to NCHS.
RESULTS. For all sites combined, cancer incidence rates decreased on average 0.7%
per year during 19901995 (P 0.05), in contrast to an increasing trend in earlier
years. Among the ten leading cancer incidence sites, a similar reversal in trends
was apparent for the cancers of the lung, prostate, colon/rectum, urinary bladder,
and leukemia; female breast cancer incidence rates increased significantly during
19731990 but were level during 19901995. Cancer death rates for all sites combined decreased on average 0.5% per year during 19901995 (P 0.05) after
significantly increasing 0.4% per year during 19731990. Death rates for the four
major cancers (lung, female breast, prostate, and colon/rectum) decreased significantly during 19901995.
CONCLUSIONS. These apparent successes are encouraging and signal the need to
maximize cancer control efforts in the future so that even greater in-roads in
Address for reprints: Phyllis A. Wingo, Ph.D.,
American Cancer Society, 1599 Clifton Road,
N.E., Atlanta, GA 30329-4251.
reducing the cancer burden in the population are achieved. Cancer 1998;82:1197
207. q 1998 American Cancer Society.
KEYWORDS: neoplasms; incidence; mortality; race; gender; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.
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Cancer Deaths
Information on cancer deaths in the U. S. is based on
causes of death reported by certifying physicians on
death certificates filed in the states. The mortality information is processed and consolidated into a national data base by the NCHS (reference 7 and unpublished data). The underlying cause of death is selected
for tabulation following the procedures specified by
the World Health Organization in the relevant Manual
of the International Classification of Diseases, Injuries,
and Causes of Death. For the period 1973 1978, the
eighth revision (ICDA-8) was used, and for 1979 1995
the ninth revision (ICD-9) was used.9 For this analysis,
ICDA-8 codes on individual records were converted to
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RESULTS
Incidence
For all sites combined, SEER incidence rates increased
(1.2% per year) during 1973 1990 and decreased
(00.7% per year) during 1990 1995 (Fig. 1), although
the trend for the latter time period was not statistically
significant. The change in direction (the difference in
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FIGURE 3.
FIGURE 4.
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FIGURE 5.
FIGURE 6.
rates than whites, Asians and Pacific Islanders, or Hispanics. Although all four racial and ethnic groups had
cancer of the corpus uteri and uterus, NOS and nonHodgkins lymphoma in common among the top ten
sites, some sites were unique to a specific population.
Melanoma and leukemia were among the top ten incidence sites only in whites, cancers of the pancreas and
oral cavity/pharynx were among the top ten sites only
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FIGURE 7. ** Incidence and death rates are age-adjusted to the 1970 U.S. standard million population; Annual Percent Change (APC) is based on
gender specific rates. # Asians and Pacific Islanders. @ Hispanic is not mutually exclusive from whites, blacks, and Asians and Pacific Islanders; death
rates exclude deaths that occurred in Connecticut, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma. * The APC is significantly different from zero (P0.05).
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Mortality
After significantly increasing on average 0.4% per year
during 1973 1990, cancer death rates for all sites combined decreased significantly an average of 0.5% per
year during 1990 1995 (Fig. 9); the change in direction
and the difference in trends between the two time
periods was statistically significant. Among the ten
leading cancer mortality sites, a pattern of significantly
increasing cancer death rates during 1973 1990, followed by significantly decreasing cancer death rates
during 1990 1995, was observed for lung cancer, female breast cancer, and prostate cancer. The mortality
pattern for melanoma was similar, except that the
trend for 1990 1995 did not achieve statistical significance. Death rates for cancers of the colon/rectum
were decreasing significantly in both time periods.
Among the other top ten cancer mortality sites, nonHodgkins lymphoma death rates were increasing significantly in both time periods, whereas death rates
for cancer of the corpus uteri and uterus, NOS, urinary
bladder, ovary, and leukemia decreased over both time
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FIGURE 8. ** Incidence and death rates are age-adjusted to the 1970 U.S. standard million population; Annual Percent Change (APC) is based on
gender specific rates. # Asians and Pacific Islanders. @ Hispanic is not mutually exclusive from whites, blacks, and Asians and Pacific Islanders. Death
rates exclude deaths that occurred in Connecticut, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma. The APC is significantly different from zero (P0.05).
periods. During 1990 1995, the average annual decreases in cancer death rates primarily were confined
to persons who were age 65 years at the time of
death (Fig. 10).
The top four causes of cancer death in the U. S.
during 1990 1995 for all racial and ethnic groups were
the same sites as for incidence (Figs. 3 6); 50%
of all cancer deaths involved the lung, female breast,
prostate, or colon/rectum.12 Examination of cancer
death rates for each of these sites by gender, race, and
ethnicity revealed that, except for female lung cancer,
blacks had higher cancer death rates than whites,
Asians and Pacific Islanders, or Hispanics. The female
lung cancer death rate in whites (33.6 per 100,000) was
only slightly higher than in blacks (32.7 per 100,000).
Other mortality sites among the top ten that were common to all four racial and ethnic groups were cancers
of the pancreas, stomach, and ovary.
Otherwise, the causes of cancer death among the
ten leading sites varied by racial and ethnic group.
Deaths due to cancer of the brain and ONS were
among the top ten mortality sites only in whites;
deaths due to cancer of the esophagus, cervix, and
multiple myeloma were among the top ten sites only
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and Pacific Islanders for all of the major cancers, although none of these increasing trends was statistically significant. In addition, white and black females
had increasing lung cancer death rates (1.7% and 1.0%
per year, respectively).
DISCUSSION
Cancer incidence rates in the U. S. have been increasing since the 1930s,5,13,14 and appear to have peaked in
1992.5 Incidence rates for all sites combined decreased
significantly an average of 2.7% per year during 1992
1995. Because the decline in incidence occurred only
for the 3 most recent years of data, the trend for the
entire time period 1990 1995, although negative, was
not statistically significant.
The downturn in cancer incidence after long term
increases varied by site, gender, race, and ethnicity.5
Among the major cancers, the earliest decreases in
incidence occurred for male lung cancer in whites and
blacks in the mid-1980s, and for cancer of the colon/
rectum in whites during the same time period. Decreases in the incidence of some cancers among blacks
occurred later than among whites. Among blacks, decreases in the incidence of colon/rectum cancer began
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