Volume 6, Issue 13

October 20, 2015

JUSTIN TRUDEAU HEADS TO 24 SUSSEX WITH

STRONG LIBERAL MAJORITY
For more information about any of the issues discussed below please contact Adam Daifallah, at (514) 316-7089
or at adaifallah@hatleystrategies.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Liberals surge at campaigns end; win majority government
Conservative Party will form the Official Opposition
New seat count: LPC (184), CPC (99), NDP (44), Bloc (10), Green (1)
Orange Crushed in Quebec: Liberals win the strategic vote
Stephen Harper to step down as leader of the Conservative Party

ANALYSIS
It was a long 79-day election that came down to one question: Should Stephen Harper form another government?
Voters responded with a resounding no. Change won over more of the same.
News coverage last night began with the Liberal Party of Canada sweeping all 33 seats in the Maritime Provinces,
completely shutting out the New Democratic Party and the Conservative Party who held seats there before. It was
a portent of what was to come. Before polls even closed in British Columbia, the news stations made their
predictions: Justin Trudeau would be the next prime minister of Canada.
It took 170 seats to form a majority government, and when all the ballots were counted, Trudeau made it out with
184. Thats a major jump from the partys previously held third-place position of 36 seats in the House of
Commons. The Conservatives won 99 seats, a 60 seat fall from pre-writ standings. At 44 seats, the NDP has lost the

Volume 6, Issue 13
October 20, 2015

Official Opposition status they previously held with 95 seats. With 10 seats now, the Bloc Quebecois has risen from
the dead and added 8 extra seatsstill two shy of official party status. Green Party leader Elizabeth May was reelected in her own riding in British Columbia, losing one seat previously held by an NDP floor-crosser.
The Liberals had the momentum almost all of the campaign, and in politics momentum is (almost) everything. It
also appears there was a last-minute surge over the weekend, which put the Liberals into majority territory. Looks
like we may be back to the historical federal political dynamic in Canada, with the Liberals and Conservatives
alternating turns in power and the NDP relegated to third-place also-rans.
It was a shattering defeat for the NDP, who were favoured to form a government at the start of the election. Their
downfall could be attributed to a number of factorsas the chattering class will be busy explaining over the next
several weeks. For one, the niqab issue seemed to hurt the NDP in Quebec, but not the Liberals. Thomas Mulcairs
move to the centre may have also alienated left-wing voters who saw a new opportunity in the Liberal Party. Polls
over the last several weeks showing Liberal gains may also have convinced enough Dippers that they should vote
Red in order to prevent the Tories from winning office again.
But if Thomas Mulcair was disappointed last night, it didnt show. Sporting his signature election grin, Muclairs
speech focused on the electorate defeating Stephen Harper, rather than on the surprising degradation of his own
party. On that note, he outlined the good work that the NDP would continue to do in the future, highlighting unity
within the party. As of Tuesday morning, he has not stepped down as party leader, and he may not do so. Who else
is there?
It was a bittersweet moment for Stephen Harper, who has been the Prime Minister for nine years and was looking
to secure a fourth mandate. On stage in Calgary, he soaked in every last moment. He was relaxed, and it seemed as
though a weight had been lifted from his shoulders. He seemed to have expected this outcome. Despite sending
out a media advisory announcing his resignation as party leader, he did not make reference of this in his speech.
Harper apparently plans on keeping his seat in the House of Commons; at least until a Conservative Party
leadership race selects a new leader.
Meanwhile, it was Justin Trudeaus time to shine. With a raspy voice from a grueling campaign, the Prime Ministerdesignate thanked the exuberant crowd in Montreal, and thanked voters across the country. He vowed that his
government would not just govern in the interest of those who voted for him, but for all Canadians. He vowed to
work with opposition members to benefit their constituents, and to bring new change to Canada. Within several
weeks, Justin Trudeau and his chosen cabinet will be sworn into office by the Governor General.
At last count, there was only a 10% chance that the Liberal Party would form a majority government. Does that
mean that pollsters were wrong?

2 | Page

Volume 6, Issue 13
October 20, 2015

While many have claimed that this is the second coming of Trudeaumania, it helps to look at the numbers a little
more closely.
Last Friday, ric Grenier of ThreeHundredEight aggregated the polling data to determine that the Liberals had
35.6% support, Conservatives had 30.4%, NDP 23.8%, Bloc 4.9%, and Greens 4.4%.
In terms of the actual popular vote, the Liberals took 39.5%, Conservatives 31.9%, and the NDP 19.7%. The Bloc
received 4.7% and the Green 3.5%.
While the numbers for the Conservatives and the Bloc are extremely accurate, support for the NDP and Greens fell
as the Liberals rose. That suggests that a sizable proportion of voters on the left of the political spectrum decided to
vote for Justin Trudeau on the basis that he was best placed in the polls to unseat Stephen Harpera campaign
message the party had been using in the last week of the campaign. Where the pollsters truly failed was in using
the popular vote to make seat projections, which is always an extremely difficult task with national polls.

THE QUEBEC ANGLE

In Quebec, the Orange Wave of 2011 crashed and was replaced by a Red Wave. 40 seats in the province now
belong to the Liberal Party of Canada (+33 from the last election), while only 16 remain with the NDP (-43). No one
predicted that the NDP would fall this hard in Quebec, most certainly not the NDP itself. The Conservatives made
huge gains in the province all at the expense of the NDP, racking in 12 seats (+7). The Bloc Quebecois made an
unexpected comeback with 10 seats, even though pundits expected they would win only one or two (they won 4 in
the last election, but ended the parliamentary session with 2). Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe failed to win his own seat
against the NDP, and it is unsure if he will stay on as leader.
The Liberal gains are the partys best results in Quebec since Pierre Trudeau last won in 1980. It also marks the first
time since Brian Mulroneys government in 1988 that a majority of seats in Quebec belong to the governing party.

QUEBEC RIDINGS TO WATCH

In the past, the HATLEY Report brought you updates on the wildest ridings to watch in Quebec. Here are the final
results for these seats.
Mount Royal
REMAINS LIBERAL Mount-Royal, located in the heart of Anglophone Montreal, was one of Quebecs
most closely watches ridings. It had been a Liberal bastion since 1940it was once held by Prime Minister
Pierre Trudeauand in this election, is remained Red to the core. Anthony Housefather, the current
mayor of Cte Saint-Luc, won 24,317 votes to Conservative candidate Robert Libmans 18,213. Libman, a

3 | Page

Volume 6, Issue 13
October 20, 2015

former Anglophone rights activist and head of the defunct Equality Party, was the Conservatives only
chance of winning seats on the traditionally-Liberal Island of Montreal.
Ahuntsic-Cartierville
NEWLY LIBERAL The riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville was a contest between the incumbent MP running
with the NDP, Maria Mourani, and the Liberal Partys candidate, Mlanie Joly. Joly was a former dark
horse Montreal mayoral candidate who fought off a half dozen other Liberal nomination contenders to
get the right to run in the riding. Mourani was the favourite in the polls, but not by much. However, the
riding now belongs to Joly, who won with 25,871 votes against the NDPs 16,659. Joly will be an
interesting MP to follow and will likely hold an important position in Justin Trudeaus inner circle. Expect
her name to come up more often as Trudeau selects the members of his cabinet.
RichmondArthabaska
NEWLY CONSERVATIVE The Conservatives badly wanted to win this riding north of Sherbrooke (between
Montreal and Quebec City) and they got their wish. The Tory candidate and popular Victoriaville mayor
Alain Rayes won with 18,496 votes, compared to Liberal Marc Desmarais 14,434 votes and NDP
candidate Myriam Beaulieus 14,113. Rayes spent the election successfully drumming up support for the
Conservatives in the Sherbrooke area and will be an important voice in the Conservative caucus.
Drummond
REMAINS NDP The region of Drummondville (east of Montreal) was won by the NDP in 2011 by a solid
14,000 votes, and remains so in 2015 with 15,833 votes. The Liberals and Bloc came in second and third
with 13,793 and 11,862 votes, respectively. The biggest loss in this race was Conservative candidate
Pascale Dry, a former journalist who was polling in second place up until the election. She had previously
tried to win the nomination in Mount-Royal, but lost to Robert Libman.
LaurierSainte-Marie
REMAINS NDP Located in the eastern part of downtown Montreal, this riding was home to Bloc
Qubcois leader Gilles Duceppe from 1993 to 2011, when he lost the election to NDP candidate Hlne
Laverdire. The two battled it out again yesterday, and the results were the same. The NDP MP won by a
large margin with 18,129, versus 13,565 for the Bloc leader. While its a big blow for Duceppe, he has not
yet announced whether he will try to win a seat elsewhere or step down as leader (as he did in 2011,
before retaking the leadership this past year).
MganticL'rable
REMAINS CONSERVATIVE This riding, located in the region south of Quebec City, was held by respected
Conservative Minister Christian Paradis since 2006. However, the Minister for International Development
decided not to run again, leaving an uncertain race in his wake. Some believed without Paradis himself,
the Tories could not hold onto the riding. And yet, candidate Luc Berthold managed to do just that. With
16,754 votes, he beat Liberal David Berthiaume who garnered 13,308 votes.

4 | Page

Volume 6, Issue 13
October 20, 2015

Saint-HyacintheBagot
REMAINS NDP Though the NDPs MP decided not to run again, the electorate in this Saint-Hyacinthe
riding east of Montreal had no problem electing another party member to the House of Commons.
Though this region used to be a bastion of Quebecs separatist movement, NDP candidate Brigitte
Sansoucy won with 15,478 votes. Liberal candidate Ren Vincelette came in at a close second with 14,930
votes. Though there was speculation that this riding could be another Conservative flip, the party came in
fourth behind the Bloc Quebecois.
Louis-Saint-Laurent
NEWLY CONSERVATIVE In a landslide victory, provincial politician Grard Deltell took this seat with
32,561 votes. The traditionally Conservative riding outside Quebec City turned NDP orange in 2011. But
the popular candidate Alexandrine Latendresse decided not to run again. The Liberals came in second
with 13,612 votes. Deltells strong presence in Quebec likely means he will hold important influence in the
Conservative Party going forward and will likely have a place in the partys shadow cabinet.
Papineau
REMAINS LIBERAL In hindsight, there is little chance that Justin Trudeau could have lost his own riding.
An NDP poll released midway through the election suggested that Anne Lagac Dowson, a former
journalist who was the NDPs candidate, had 46% support, while Trudeau had 35%. Follow up polls
debunked this idea, and rightfully so: the Prime Minister-designate won with 26,294 votes, compared to
the NDPs 13,240.
BcancourNicoletSaurel
REMAINS BLOC This riding was one of the few which pollsters predicted the Bloc Quebecois could win.
The riding is in an area near Three Rivers and has been represented by heavyweight Louis Plamondon in
every election since 1984. Plamondon was one of four to resist the Orange Wave in the 2011 election and
was the only Bloc winner from that year to run for re-election. Plamondon was re-elected with 20,752
votes, compared to his Liberal opponents 12,579.
Notre-Dame-de-GrceWestmount
REMAINS LIBERAL Despite a predicted tight race, the Liberals overwhelmingly won this Montreal riding.
Incumbent Liberal MP and former astronaut Marc Garneau racked in 29,601 votes compared to the NDPs
11,197 (in the last election, Garneau won with little over 600 votes). NDP candidate James Hughes had
been very active in the riding and seemed poised to be a strong contender.
Some other ridings also caught our attention last night:

5 | Page

Volume 6, Issue 13
October 20, 2015

La Pointe-de-l'le: The former leader of the Bloc Quebecois and hardline separatist Mario Beaulieu won his
seat with 38% support, taking out the incumbent NDP MP.
Berthier-Maskinong: NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau resisted the Red Wave and held onto her seat. The MP
made headlines in 2011 after winning her seat despite not stepping foot in its territory, barely speaking
French, and vacationing in Las Vegas at the start of the election. Since then, she has gone on to become one of
the NDPs most informed and respected MPs.
BellechasseLes EtcheminsLvis: Former Conservative Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney has been reelected in the Quebec City region, despite a strong showing from his opponents. With 18,951 votes over his
closest rival, its clear that Blaney isnt going anywhere.
Beauce: Maxime Bernier is one of the few true libertarians within the Conservative Party, and he just made his
way to a fourth mandate. Despite being a largely agricultural riding worried by potential harm to the supply
management system, he won by 20,374 votes.
Ville-MarieLe Sud-Ouestle-des-Surs: This new Montreal riding covers all grounds: a diverse population
that speaks many languages and ranges widely in income. Like the majority of the country, this riding turned
Liberal red. Marc Miller, a Liberal Party lawyer, won the seat with 25,679 votes, compared to the NDPs
11,814.
RosemontLa Petite-Patrie: Another Montreal survivor of the Red Wave, NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice has held onto
his seat. Boulerice is a popular figure in the party and served as the labour critic in the Official Opposition.

For any additional questions please contact: Adam Daifallah, Partner

6 | Page