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Thayer Vietnam Party Leadership
Thayer Vietnam Party Leadership
size of the next Central Committee. These names will be put before the delegates at
the 11th national congress. Party rules were altered at the last congress to permit
caucuses of provincial delegates to make nominations from the floor and the rules
also allowed self‐nomination.
Prior to the 10th national congress in 2006, the outgoing Central Committee
recommended that the new Central Committee comprise 160 full members. It also
approved a list of 177 candidates. At the congress provincial party caucuses
recommended another 31 persons and there were two self‐nominations. Basically
the recommendations of the outgoing Central Committee were approved. So there
were no surprises.
At the 11th congress the three incumbent members of the Politburo should retire in
2011: party Secretary General Nong Duc Manh, state President Nguyen Minh Triet
and Truong Vinh Trong. Manh has had two terms in office and will be 71. Triet, aged
69 in 2011, is reportedly ill and will step down. Truong Vinh Trong, who will be 69 in
2011, is likely to be retired on age grounds.
Party convention dictates that in order to be qualified for election as party Secretary
General the candidate must have served a full term on the Political Bureau. There
are also age restrictions but these are flexible in practice. In 2006, nine members of
the fifteen‐member Political Bureau retired. This high rate of turnover is unlikely to
be repeated in 2011 as eight members of the current Political Bureau were first
elected in 2006 and nine incumbents will be under the age of 65.
Of the eleven members of the Political Bureau nominally qualified for the post of
party Secretary General, there are five apparent candidates: Truong Tan Sang,
Nguyen Phu Trong, Ho Duc Viet, Pham Quang Nghi, and Nguyen Van Chi. Party
delegates to the 11th congress will elect the new Central Committee and the new
Central Committee in turn will elect the Politburo and from among its members the
next party secretary general. It is almost certain that two or more names will be put
to the next Central Committee as a result of pressure from delegates at the 10th
national party congress. This should make the post more competitive. But since the
leadership selection process is opaque outsiders will have little chance to gauge
internal party politicking.
There is no heir apparent for the next party secretary general. I consider Sang and
Trong as front runners. Selection of the new leadership is likely to produce surprises.
First, it is likely that several incumbent members of the current Central Committee
will fail to get re‐elected. And it is also possible that more candidates nominated at
the congress will be elected than in the past.
One key development to watch is the appearance of Politburo members eligible for
election as party secretary general at provincial and municipal party congresses
about to be held over the next four to five months. They will be appealing for the
votes of delegates elected at these local congresses.