5.

Future sources of growth

Historically, we have attempted to predict and to forecast what will

occur in the future. Despite a few ones at the history not all these
assumptions were right.However, it exists special cases such as Julio
Verne, that with his science fiction novels went more far than the
real present talking about things that were not done or invented yet,
inventions like the submarine. Whereas the future sources of growth it
happens slightly the same, but with the difference that in this case
no inventions are need just predictions and forecasting.

In the last two years we have appreciatte a lower potential output ,

higher unemployment and rising public debt growth. To recover and
move towards a more sustainable growth trajectory is urgently
needed additional new sources of development,
At the same time , some traditional sources of growth are becoming
less important. Many countries have languish communities which
decreases the performance of labor in economic growth in the long
term factor . In add , investments in capital goods face yields down
and feasibly defficient to strengthen the long-term growth ;
particurarly in advanced economies. The innovation, which involves
introducing new products, processes or significantly improved
methods are increasingly needed to boost growth and employment
and improve living standards . This is also true for emerging
economies looking to innovation as a way to increase competitiveness
and economic diversification activities directed towards higher value
added

Global crisis

The impact of the recession on the USA and in most of other

developed countries is inclined to persevere for a while , even thought
recovery and restoration has been initiated both in a nation and
international way.
The indication and the proofs from last sharps economic downturns
connected to banking crises in developed countries, shows
permanent failures of potential output and slow recovery of growth.
This results from a weakening in the capital stock caused by severe
and constant falls in business investment, and in the stock of human
capital for the sake of the degeneration of skills resulting from
extended unemployment. The recovery of investment tends to be
slower than common recessions by virtue of a idle credit growth.
In the long run , productivity can be enhanced by recession as a result
of the change of resources en route more productive uses, the
incitement of innovation and venture across a generous range of
activities, and improvements in human capital through increased
flows into supplementary education and training.

Source
http://www.tutor2u.net

Macroeconomic forecasts.
Private household consumption is the market value of all goods and

services, including durable products (such as cars, washing

machines, and home computers), purchased by households. It
excludes purchases of dwellings but includes imputed rent for
owner-occupied dwellings. It also includes payments and fees to
governments to obtain permits and licenses.

Source: http://www.movoto.com
Business investment

The Commerce Department expressed that nonmilitary orders for capital goods,
excluding aircraft, decrease 1.2 percent last month. Capital goods orders are a
firmly watched attorney for business spending plans. Moreover, the report
showed that orders for durable goods , items including appliances and aircraft
(with a 3 years economic life) fell 2 percent in October, as the result of a the
plummet in the demand for civilian and military aircraft.
In add, another report composed and published by the Institute for Supply
Management-Chicago, demonstrated factory employment surged to a one-year
high. Finally, the institute's business barometer(The ULI Real Estate Business
Barometer is a monthly online member resource that helps you track and
understand key economic and financial trends affecting your real estate
business. The Barometer gathers and summarizes, in one place, more than 60
key indicatorstheir current status and changesand provides a concise
overview of what these changes mean for the U.S. real estate industry. All
aspects of real estate are covered, including real estate capital markets,
commercial/multifamily investment property, and housing) fell to 63.0 from 65.9
in October.

Microeconomic forecasts

These points propose a gradual rebalancing of the US economy. Nevertheless

forecasts have often predicted rebalancing only for it not to materialise, the
National intitute admits the risk that there may be minor readjustment than
expected. In regard to one of its alternative sequence of plans is based over
deferred rebalancing.
The USs long term supposes urgency to be contemplated in the context of
continuing changes in both global demand and global supply.
Central to developments in the global economy over the last few decades has been
the acceleration in the pace of globalisation, involving technological change,
increasing competition from emerging economies and the associated development
of global value chains. The globalisation trend is widely expected to continue.
The sectoral composition of economic growth
Future trends in the sectoral composition of the UK can be foresee in extensive
terms.
It is deeply inconceivable that settled trends like the shift from manufacture
production to the third sector,(services) will be turned around since they are
supported by continuing strong economic forces, although policies to improve the
trade and investment climate can have a significant impact on the competitiveness

of the manufacturing sector.

The globalisation trend measures that competitive pressures on US firms in low to
medium skill-based traded sectors will persevere to increase, during the time
restraints on developing countries skills to move up the value set in a moderately
way.
US prospects will archieve better knowledge-intensive manufacturing and services.
The USs specialisation in Publishing, Finance, Business Services,
Communications, and Computer and Information Services is likely to continue like it
is with not some many changes in some time.Services that are supported by the
improvement of the exportability of services and the increasing demand for
services as global incomes continue to rise. However, these are inclined to
continue to turn into more specialised, with some less financial worth added
activities outsourced or offshored.

5.3.2 Drivers of growth

Increasing US specialisation in innovative and knowledge-intensive services and
advanced manufacturing in global markets will affect on several growth drivers.

Increasing global competition will persist to put specific pressure on

lower-wage, lower-skill activities.
Innovation will be increasingly important to competitiveness, but is
expected to develop pinto more important across the whole value
chain, not just in the progress of new ultimate products and services.