2 Fossil Fuels: 2.1 Coal Exploitation Technologies

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 11

2.

1 Coal exploitation technologies

14

[Ref. p. 24

2 Fossil fuels
[H.-W. Schiffer, M. Kosinowski, R. Ghofrani, C. Marx, P. Freund]

2.1 Coal exploitation technologies


[H.-W. Schiffer]

2.1.1 The role of coal in world energy supply


In 2000, 3.4 billion tonnes (bt) of hard coal were mined worldwide. This is equivalent to 2.8 billion (bn)
tonnes of coal equivalent (tce: the energy content of 1 kilogram of coal equivalent amounts to 29 308 kJ).
In that year, hard coal made a 20% contribution toward covering our primary energy requirements of
some 13.7 bn tce. In addition, just under 1 bt of lignite was mined in 2000, corresponding to an energy
content of a good 0.3 bn tce or 2.5% of world energy consumption.
The focus of coal use is on power generation, a market in which coal leads. For example, some 33%
of world power generation in 2000 totalling 15.2 trillion kWh was based on inputs of hard coal. Lignite
has an approx. 5% share.

2.1.2 World coal deposits


The world's coal deposits are classified in different categories, depending on the robustness of the
evidence and on their technical and economic minability. A distinction is usually made between resources
and reserves.
Germany's Federal Institute of Geo-Sciences and Raw Materials (BGR, Hanover) classifies and
records world coal deposits according to a uniform quality parameter, viz. "coal equivalent" (ce). This
distinguishes in principle between hard coals with energy contents > 16 500 kJ/kg (anthracite, bituminous
coal, subbituminous coal) and lignites with energy contents < 16 500 kJ/kg.
According to the BGR, reserves are "that share of total resources which has been recorded with a high
degree of precision and which can be economically mined using today's technology. Common synonyms
are: workable and recoverable reserves; definitely and probably minable deposits."
By contrast, resources refer to the share of the total "that has been proved, but is not economically
minable at present, geologically indexed or recorded as in situ quantity, or cannot otherwise be allocated
to the term reserves."
Reserves plus resources are referred to as total resources.
In terms of these categories, the world's total hard coal and lignite resources have a volume of 6668
bn tce, with 5508 being accounted for by hard coals and 1160 bn tce by lignites.
Worldwide coal reserves amount to 558 bn tce, incl. 487 bn tce of hard coals and 71 bn tce of lignites.
The static availability of these reserves (ratio between reserves and current annual output) totals 180
years (hard coal: 175 years; lignite: 220 years). By contrast, that of gas reserves is limited to 66 years,
and that of oil reserves to a mere 44 years.

2.1.3 Deposits
Unlike the situation in oil and natural gas, coal deposits are scattered more widely in geographic terms
with a concentration on the northern hemisphere. North America has a 37% share of total coal reserves,
Asia 31%, followed by Europe with 12%, Australia with 10%, Africa with 7% and South America with
3% (Fig. 2.1).

La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

Ref. p. 24]

2 Fossil fuels

15

Canada
1 6
17

5
24

USA
183

Central and
South America

42

CIS
29

EU

Peoples Republic
of China
7
India
1

Remaining
4
Africa

69
52

2
Remaining
6
Asia

18
South
Africa
34

Australia

14
44

Lignite
Hard coal

Total:
558 bn tce
incl.hard coal: 487 bn tce
lignite:
71 bn tce

Fig. 2.1. Worldwide distribution of coal deposits [99Bun].

Coal, which is a product of organic sedimentation, occurs in seam-shaped deposits and must be
extracted selectively from the surrounding strata. Of major commercial importance are flat deposits with
no faults, which account for 60% of the world's deposits. They have few seams that are often of an even
thickness and a wide horizontal spread. Flat, hardly disturbed deposits of little depth lend themselves to
extraction in opencast operations. These mainly concern lignites, but most hard coal deposits from the
Gondwana period on the southern continents are also of this type.
Sloping to steeply inclined or fault-containing coal deposits have a large number of irregularly shaped
seams in layer sequences that are often thousands of metres thick. The seams are encountered at varying
depths, with the deposits frequently marked by complicated faults and disturbed conditions, so that extraction is mostly in underground operations. They are generally of high rank; high-quality coking coals,
non-bituminous coals and anthracites can usually be found in this type of deposit.
A coal's rank is a measure of its energy content. Increasing pressure and temperature in the course of
geological periods displaces water and volatile components (e.g. nitrogen, oxygen, methane) from the
coal layers. Via the series: turf, lignite, hard coal, anthracite and graphite, an increasing amount of carbon
can be found in the coal.

2.1.4 Extraction types and mining techniques


Depending on seam depth and formation and on the overlying loose or solid rock, the coal is extracted
either in opencast or underground operations. In underground mining, access is by shafts and/or drifts
while, in surface operations, the layer above the coal is stripped to permit extraction of the exposed coal.
Depending on seam thickness, the composition of the overlying strata and surface use (e.g., inter alia,
density of settlement), opencast mining is an economic proposition down to depths of 500 m. The profitability limit worldwide in the opencast mining of hard coal is currently at an average overburden/coal
ratio of some 6 bank cubic metres to 1 t of raw coal for the entire opencast mine content and life, but may
be above this in the case of higher-quality coals.

La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

16

2.1 Coal exploitation technologies

[Ref. p. 24

Fig. 2.2. Diagram of a


continuous miner system
(room-and-pillar-method)
in North American hard
coal mining [89Reu].

Hard coal extracted in underground operations is mined either from the surface via drifts or shafts,
depending on the depth of the deposit. In drift mining, the deposit is developed using slightly inclined
drifts equipped with conveyor belts. By contrast, coal deposits at greater depths require shafts, which are
also used for the extraction proper. The coal is mined either in room-and-pillar or in longwalling
operations, with the latter predominating.
In room-and-pillar mining, continuous miners drive extraction roads into the coal to cross at right
angles. Pillars are left standing in-between to support the overlying strata (Fig. 2.2). This method is
associated with high extraction losses, since a considerable quantity of coal remains underground.
Transportation to the conveyor belts is often by shuttle car. A variant of the room-and-pillar method is
extraction by conventional drilling and blasting, with the conveyor belts being fed by wheel loader.
In longwalling, continuous miners are used to drive two parallel roads into the seam at intervals of
200 to 400 m; the roads are then connected at right angles using longwall equipment (Fig. 2.3). For actual
extraction, continuous miners are drawn across the longwall face by chains, or coal ploughs are used. The
extracted coal falls automatically onto a chain conveyor and is transported further. The extraction face in
the seam advances some 2 to 20 m a day, leaving a worked-out space without pillars, which causes the
overlying rock to collapse behind the advancing operations (goaf). The longwall is protected against
falling rock by hydraulic shield and frame supports, although the latter are losing in importance. The
United States currently operates 65 longwall mines. Over 45% of US output in underground operations is
now accounted for by this mining method.
In underground mining, methane gas is released in the longwall roads. Thanks to suitable mine ventilation, this gas is so diluted that no firedamp explosions occur. Where the coal is under high pressure
from methane gas, gas relaxations are produced by horizontal drilling.
The mining technique used in the extraction of hard coal in opencast operations depends on the
number and thickness of the seams and their inclination. In this respect, minimum thicknesses of
0.51.0 m are considered workable. Where only one or two seams are worked and these are thick and
flat, the overburden is crushed or loosened by drilling and blasting and removed by dragline/shovel and
truck. The seam exposed in dragline operations is likewise drilled and blasted and then loaded by shovel
or wheel loader onto heavy trucks for transportation. In this work, small draglines and, to a growing
La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

Ref. p. 24]

2 Fossil fuels

17

Fig. 2.3. Example of longwall


mining in German hard coal
mining [89Reu].

extent, hydraulic excavators, too, are used. By contrast, the extraction of several, and more inclined
(upward of 15) seams is by truck and shovel, with the entire group of seams and interburden layers
being worked in horizontal slices (benches).
The group of seams is first drilled and blasted and then worked from top to bottom, separately for
overburden and seams, and loaded onto heavy trucks. Draglines and hydraulic excavators as well as
wheel loaders are deployed, occasionally supported by bulldozers.
The extraction of lignite worldwide is mainly by continuous opencast operations, i.e. bucket wheel
excavator, conveyor belt and spreader. This is also true of the Rhenish lignite mining area to the west of
Cologne. The large-scale equipment deployed in this German mining area since the end of the 1970s
yields a daily output of 240 000 m3, or 12 500 m3/h (Fig. 2.4). In the Lusatian mining area near Dresden,
the equipment of choice for the removal of overburden owing to the even formation of the lignite seams
is the conveyor bridge. The coal is extracted by bucket wheel excavator and bucket chain dredger. The
capacity of the conveyor bridges assuming three upstream bucket chain dredgers is up to 450 000 m3
per day. In the Central German mining area near Leipzig, the same extraction technique has made
headway as in the Rhenish area, though with limited use of mobile conveyor methods as well (surface
miner and truck).
Most other European and non-European large-scale opencast mines, too, prefer continuous opencast
techniques. In Victoria (Australia), for example, the opencast lignite mines employ bucket wheel excavators, and the Mae Moh (Thailand) mine, too, has been using BWEs for some years now in contractor
operations for the removal of overburden. By contrast, the opencast lignite mines in Texas (USA) mostly
use draglines and shovel and truck combinations. But there, too, some companies have been deploying
bucket wheel excavator systems with conveyor belts or cross mine dumpers for years now (Fig. 2.5).
The general trend in extraction technology involves further development of the continuous mining
technique that originated in lignite mining for use in harder materials like phosphate or hard coal, incl.
the associated overburden removal, the object being direct extraction and selective mining with no need
for blasting. A case in point is the deployment of a Krupp Surface Miner KSM 2000 in the Russian

La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

2.1 Coal exploitation technologies

18

[Ref. p. 24

Taldinski hard coal mine, but sulphate extraction in Senegal, too, is by bucket wheel excavator. So
continuous mining techniques have been making inroads in the extraction of harder materials as well.

Fig. 2.4. Lignite mining in the Rhenish area.


Germany
Russia
USA
Australia
Greece
Turkey
Poland
Czech Republic
China
Canada
Serbia
Bulgaria
Romania
India
Korea
Thailand
Hungary

27
24
24
23
20
15

35
33

51
50

68
63
63
59

84
79

168

Fig. 2.5. Ranking list of the lignite


producing countries in 2000 (in mt).

2.1.5 Beneficiation
Owing to a relatively high water content (40 to 60%) and a correspondingly lower calorific value
compared with hard coal, lignite is mostly used close to the mines. The focus of lignite use, accounting
for nearly 90% worldwide, is on power generation. In Germany, raw lignite is transported by conveyor
belt or train to power plants located near the deposits. These plants are equipped with highly effective
flue gas cleaning systems. No special treatment of the raw coal is necessary prior to its use in the power
plants.
La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

Ref. p. 24]

2 Fossil fuels

19

Of the hard coal quantities mined, a worldwide average of 83% is used in the country of origin itself.
Unlike lignite, a functioning international trade exists in hard coal which reached a respectable 565 million t (mt) in 2000, with 39 mt being accounted for by cross-border continental trade and 526 mt by
maritime trade. Wherever use can be made of lower-cost sea routes, hard coal is a competitive energy
source in many parts of the world even when long distances are involved (Fig. 2.6).
Output

Exports by sea

China 950
USA

59
35

892

India
Australia
South Africa
Russia
Poland

300
187

236
70

214
168

23
102

14

Ukraine

80

Indonesia

76

Kazakhstan

75

57

Colombia

37

Germany

37

Canada

35

Great Britain

30

35
31
mt

Fig. 2.6. Output and exports


of hard coal in 2000.

Since hard coal is seriously contaminated owing to the high degree of mechanization in mining operations, so that, in a raw state, its quality often fails to meet customers' requirements, it must be subjected to
a cleaning process. In this so-called beneficiation, the raw coal is first crushed and then classified by
grain size, i.e. as coarse, fine and ultrafine. In the subsequent sorting of coal and rock particles, the
crucial features are specific weight in the case of coarse and fine grain, and surface properties in the case
of ultrafine grain. The separating medium in the former case is either water or a heavy liquid (sink/float
process), with the separation being in sink/float drums (coarse grain) or washers (jigs), or in water cyclones or heavy media cyclones (medium grain). The ultrafine grain, by contrast, is cleaned by flotation.
The crucial economic factor in beneficiation is product output, i.e. the share of washed coal to raw coal.
This is some 80% for steam coal and 65 to 70% for coking coal.

2.1.6 Quality requirements


Certain generally binding quality standards apply on the world hard coal market. What is crucial for all
parameters is the moisture content of the coals, since variations here are also associated with variations in
the percentages of all other components. In the case of coking coal, these refer worldwide to the "air dry"
basis, while the quality of steam coals is based on overall moisture, i.e. "as received" (ar). In East Asia,
by contrast, "air dry" (ad) is used for steam coal as well. In the case of steam coals, the definition of the
energy content, too, is of importance, with a distinction being made between gross and net calorific
value. While the former also includes the evaporation heat of the moisture emerging when the hydrocarbons in the coal are burnt, the net value ignores this energy component, since it cannot be technically
exploited. Gross calorific value is generally used in the English-speaking world while, in Germany at
least, net calorific value is customary.
Steam coal is seen to have a very much wider analytic bandwidth than coking coal and assuming
power plant proximity may even be used in an unprepared state, which is possible for imported coals
only in exceptional cases (Colombia, Venezuela, Indonesia). Also as regards sulphur content, use in
La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

2.1 Coal exploitation technologies

20

[Ref. p. 24

power plant boilers is not subject to narrow technical restrictions, although existing environmental regulations may be a bar to the use of qualities with a higher sulphur content if the power plants are not
equipped with flue gas desulphurization systems. Steam coals in the named quality are also used in
industrial furnaces, and in the cement industry in particular. One special case in this respect is anthracite,
which was once mainly used in households, but is now deployed in industrial boilers fitted with travelling
grates. The quality features for this fuel are a low < 10% share of volatile elements, with 23% ash and
< 0.5% sulphur content. In view of its poor ignitability, anthracite can only be used in lumpy form, i.e. as
nuts (or briquettes).

2.1.7 Transportation and handling


The world trade in hard coal is based not only on an efficient mining industry, but also on a matching
efficient infrastructure. Its interlocking phases, all the way from mining to consumer use, extend via

rail transport
port handling
marine transportation
discharge at the port of destination
inland transportation

and are referred to as the coal chain.


Transportation of hard coal to the port of shipment is generally by rail. The feasible distances for economic transportation are limited by cost considerations, i.e. the export mines are located relatively near
the coast. Rail transport is by complete trainloads with trains up to 1.5 km in length and a capacity of
over 10 000 t. Where rail links to the coast are non-existent, the coal can also be taken to the port by truck
(Colombia 300 km, Venezuela 90 km, Indonesia 70 km). Another option is shipping by inland waterway,
e.g. to the US Gulf ports (6002900 km) or, in Indonesia, to the deep-water ports/loading points.
In the port of shipment, the coal is discharged by wagon tippler and moved by belt conveyor to
intermediate stockpiles that can take a total volume of up to 6 mt with up to 50 different brands.
Recovery is by bucket wheel reclaimer or subsurface extractor onto conveyor belts, which take the coal
to the ship loader and, finally, to the ship. For each ship to be loaded, there are one or two ship loaders
available with loading capacities of up to 6000 t/h. Altogether, there are some 180 ports of shipment with
an annual handling capacity of about 670 mt of coal.
The marine transportation of coal is by bulk freighter (Fig. 2.7). Depending on cargo size, distance
to the port of discharge and permissible draught in the ports, three ship sizes are deployed, viz.
10 000 to 50 000 dwt
50 000 to 60 000 dwt
80 000 to 150 000 dwt

= handysize,
= panamax and
= capesize.

Handysize ships are mainly used for small quantities, short distances, coastal shipping and ports of
shipment/destination with only little draught. However, most coal transportation is ocean-wide or between oceans, using panamax and capesize freighters. The first can pass through the Panama Canal, while
the second have to round Cape Horn or the Cape of Good Hope. (In the latter case, this is not entirely
true, since the Suez Canal can now be used by smaller capesize ships as well.)
In the receiving countries, there are some 185 ports of discharge available with a handling capacity
totalling an annual 820 mt, although this does have to be shared with other bulk dry goods. Some of these
have dedicated coal terminals, however, e.g. in the ARA ports (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp). Coal
discharge is usually by grab crane onto belt conveyors, which take the coal to intermediate stockpiles,
though the discharge process, with some 15 00020 000 t/d, takes much longer than loading.
Subsequent inland transportation is from the intermediate stockpiles, where the coal is loaded onto
trains and shipped to consumers. The train sizes deployed are much smaller, however, and rarely reach
2000 t. In some places, e.g. in the ARA ports, the coal can be loaded directly or via intermediate

La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

Ref. p. 24]

20
to Far East 6

2 Fossil fuels

21
from Canada
20

Canada
31
24

USA
35

Russia
23

7
Poland
14

10
China
59

4
7

4
Venezuela 25
9
Colombia
35

6 from USA

36

10
52

South Africa
70

Indonesia
57
15

33

126

Australia
187

6
Maritime trade:526 mt
incl.351 mt of steam coal
175 mt of coking coal

World hard coal output:3.4 bt

Fig. 2.7. Major trade flows in hard coal traffic by sea in 2000 (in mt) [00Gci].

stockpiles onto inland waterway ships. The standard barge size takes 20002500 t and is able, depending on water levels, to travel the Central Rhine in push tows of four barges and on parts of the German
waterway network in single barges.

2.1.8 Costs of the entire coal chain


Hard coal mining like lignite mining saw some considerable productivity gains in the last few years.
In fact, productivity in all significant hard coal exporting countries has doubled since the mid-1980s. The
United States' or Australia's output, say, has now reached up to 12 000 t/man-year. While hard coal is
exclusively mined in underground operations in Germany, the share of hard coal mined in opencast
operations amounts to 60% in the USA and to over 70% in Australia. Export coals mined at particularly
low cost in Indonesia and Colombia come almost entirely from surface operations.
For world market steam coal, mining costs (full costs incl. debt service) amounted to between 20 and
28 US$/tce in 2000. Transportation costs from mine to seaport varied considerably, depending on
distance and means of transportation, ranging from just under 3 US$/tce in Colombia to approx.
16 US$/tce in the USA. (Fig. 2.8)
The freight costs from the port in the exporting country to the northwestern European seaports are as
follows:
Table 2.1 Freight costs (Prices as of May 2001).

ex US East Coast
ex South Africa
ex Australia

La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

Capesize

Panamax

6.60 US$/t
8.30 US$/t
12.85 US$/t

7.80 US$/t
10.20 US$/t
14.85 US$/t

2.1 Coal exploitation technologies

22

[Ref. p. 24

50
45
40
35

45

43

43
7

12

17

30
25

16

43
11
7

40
9
3

20
15
10

21

22

20

Australia

South Africa

USA

25

28

5
0

Mining costs

1)

1) Full costs, incl. capital costs

Inland transportation 2)

Indonesia

Colombia

Marine transportation 3)

2) Inland transportation in the producing


country, incl. port handling

3) from seaport in the exporting country


to seaport in northwestern Europe

Fig. 2.8. Representative costs for steam coal free northwestern European seaports in 2000 (in US$/tce) [00Gci].

Hence, in 2000, representative total costs for world market steam coal, free northwestern European
seaports, were between 40 US$/tce and 45 US$/tce, depending on the country of origin.

2.1.9 Price formation


Today's world market for hard coal is characterized by fierce competition between a large number of
suppliers both traditional and new. Hence, there are no signs of the formation of a cartel comparable
with the OPEC in the oil sector. One reason for this is the large volume of coal deposits worldwide,
which are distributed so widely that many large economies, and smaller countries as well, can cover their
requirements from their own or nearby resources. On top of this, there is a large number of suppliers
serving the world market and fiercely competing with one another. This number is so high that joint
restraint in investment and production, i.e. artificially mounted shortages and price agreements, have no
prospects of success at present. Accordingly, prices are determined by supply and demand.
Supply conditions depend in particular on the geological formation of the deposits and the
productivity obtainable in coal mining, both of which are reflected in mining costs. A further
consideration is the distance from the deposit to the consumer. The general rule is that the most
favourable deposits are worked first. When these are exhausted, recourse must be had to resources that
are often geologically less well endowed or are more costly to develop and operate owing to their
geographical location. All the same, economic disadvantages may be offset by higher productivity, as
was the case in the recent past.
Accordingly, the long-term marginal costs of production are the crucial determinant of the trend in
hard coal prices ex mine. Around the trend curve of long-term marginal costs, prices fluctuate in cycles,
the movements being due, inter alia, to the course taken by demand. This, in its turn, crucially determines
the utilisation of the various capacities. In the past, price movements in crude oil also had a limited
impact on the world market prices for hard coal.
The maritime world market involves two market segments, i.e. the Atlantic market which is basically
covered by the European and Mediterranean countries, and the Pacific market, which also includes the
Asian countries along the Indian Ocean and mainly serves Asian customers. This division of the market is
mainly a matter of distances and also affects factors like supply and demand as well as price formation.
La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

Ref. p. 24]

2 Fossil fuels

23

Nonetheless, the two market segments are interconnected, i.e. some coal quantities certainly move from
one to the other wherever the obtainable cif prices are still competitive there. The extra costs of transport
involved (e.g. Australian coal to ARA) are borne in such cases by the supplier. Such deliveries are often
contracted on a cif basis (Fig. 2.9).
Pacific market
Asia

Atlantic market
Europe
Market structure
Supply

Demand

USA (East Coast)


Marginal supplier

EU and
Mediterranean region

South Africa
Colombia
Australia
Poland
Russia

where ocean freight difference


is met by supplier

Demand

Supply

Hong Kong

USA (West Coast)


Marginal supplier

Japan
Korea
Taiwan
India

Australia
Indonesia
Canada
China

Price formation
Spot pricing at a level
that offers South African
suppliers a reasonable
yield

Other suppliers follow South


Africas spot price on a cif
Europe basis

Longer-term transactions
0 to 2 US S
I /t
above the spot price

Other suppliers follow


Australias spot price on a cif
Japan/Asia basis

Spot pricing at a level


that offers Australian
suppliers a reasonable
yield

Longer-term transactions
0 to 5 US SI / t
above the spot price

Participation of US suppliers on both markets where prices are


acceptable and quantities are available for this

Fig. 2.9. Price formation for steam coal [99Bro].

With supply and demand possibly developing at different rates in the two markets, price formation,
too, is as a rule on a separate basis, even if overlapping does ensure a largely identical and synchronous
trend in prices, as is also reflected in the MCIS (McCloskey Coal Industry Services) price indices for
northwestern Europe and East Asia (see Table 2.2).
Table 2.2. MCIS index (cif prices in US$/t for 6000 kcal/kg (as received)).
Month/Year

Northwestern Europe

East Asia

1/98
1/99
1/00
1/01

35.74
29.97
30.15
42.21

34.54
27.79
28.08
37.26

In view of their high market share, the price leaders are generally South Africa on the Atlantic market
and Australia on the Pacific market. However, since considerable and growing quantities are already
traded on a spot basis, the market leaders are compelled to include in their deliberations the terms offered
by their next-largest competitors (e.g. Colombia and Poland or Indonesia and China) if they are not to
lose market shares. The crucial factor in this respect is the specific cif price at the port of destination. The
specific spot price level formed in this way is the yardstick for upcoming negotiations on contract prices
within the scope of long-term supply contracts.
On the Atlantic market, these are arranged on an individual basis between supplier and consumer,
while Japanese consumers, i.e. the steel industry or power generators, form purchasing cartels and
authorize one of their members to negotiate prices for the others. Negotiating partners are the producers
who mainly act singly, but also in groups of an alternating composition. At one time, buyers honoured
La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

2.1 Coal exploitation technologies

24

[Ref. p. 24

producers' provision of adequate supply capacity with a mark-up on the specific spot price of up to
10 US$/t applying at the time of contracting, above all in the case of coking coal. In view of ongoing
excess supply and the growing importance of the spot market with its high price transparency, the
willingness of consumers to pay such mark-ups has now perceptibly declined, with a discernible fall to
up to 2 US$/t fob on the Atlantic market and up to 5 US$/t fob on the Pacific market.

2.1.10 Prospects
In spite of the economic conclusiveness of the available forecasts, a judgement on the long-term role to
be played by coal in securing the world energy supply is still marked by uncertainty. Among the reasons
for this are the constantly changing economic and political conditions.
Current forecasts extend to the year 2020 at most and include the growth of worldwide coal
requirements and the world coal trade, associated rises in costs and prices, as well as the future
competitiveness of coal compared with other primary energies. Also of interest is an assessment of the
options for satisfying the future coal requirements of the world economy in quantity and competitive
terms.
The available forecasts are unanimous in predicting a rise in worldwide energy requirements. To
cover the additional needs, coal, too, will have to do its bit. Coal is the stable pillar on the world energy
market, ensuring that sufficient supplies, in particular for power generation, will continue to be available
at low cost. In coming decades, it will perform an important bridge function in the transition to renewable
energies, which is the long-term goal.

2.1.11 References for 2.1


89Reu
97Cam
98Sau
99Bro
99Bun
00Gru
00Rwe
00Gci
01Bal
01Iea
01Gru

Reuther, E.-U.: Lehrbuch der Bergbaukunde, Vol. 1, Essen 1989.


Cameron, J.: International Coal Trade The Evolution of a Global Market, Paris 1997.
Saus, T., Schiffer, H.-W.: Lignite international, published by: Rheinbraun AG, Cologne 1998.
Broadbent, G.A.: Competitiveness of Coal The Evolution of Price, IEA Coal Research,
London 1999.
Bundesanstalt fr Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (Federal Institute of Geo-Sciences and Raw
Materials) (publ.): Rohstoffwirtschaftliche Lnderstudien XVII, Reserven, Ressourcen und
Verfgbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 1998, Hannover 1999.
Gru, H., Schiffer, H.-W., Gallisch, J.H.: World Market for Hard Coal, published by:
Rheinbraun AG, Cologne 2000.
RWE AG (publ.): Opportunities and Risks of Future World Energy Supply 2000 The
Changing Corporate Landscape, Essen 2000.
Association of German Coal Importers, Annual Report 2000, Hamburg 2001.
Ballisoy, N., Schiffer, H.-W.: Lignite in Europe, published by: RWE Rheinbraun AG, Cologne
2001.
International Energy Agency (publ.): Coal Information, Paris 2001.
Gru, H.: Entwicklung von Angebot und Nachfrage auf dem Steinkohlenweltmarkt, Zeitschrift
fr Energiewirtschaft, April 2001.

La n d o l t - B r n s t e i n
New Series VIII/3A

You might also like