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Bayesian Networks: CSC384: Intro To Artificial Intelligence Reasoning Under Uncertainty-III
Bayesian Networks: CSC384: Intro To Artificial Intelligence Reasoning Under Uncertainty-III
Bayesian Networks: CSC384: Intro To Artificial Intelligence Reasoning Under Uncertainty-III
Announcements:
Bayesian Networks
5th.
Explicit joint
requires 211
-1 =2047
parmtrs
BN requires
only 27
parmtrs (the
number of
entries for
each CPT is
listed)
A couple
CPTS are
shown
E.g.,
Pr(a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i,j,k) =
Pr(a)
x Pr(b)
x Pr(c|a)
x Pr(d|a,b)
x Pr(e|c)
x Pr(f|d)
x Pr(g)
x Pr(h|e,f)
x Pr(i|f,g)
x Pr(j|h,i)
x Pr(k|i)
Then
Pr(X1=a,X2=a,X3=a)
= P(X3=a|X2=a) P(X =a) P(X1=a)
2
Pr(X1=a,X2=a,X3=b)
= P(X3=b|X2=a) P(X =a) P(X1=a)
2
Pr(X1=a,X2=a,X3=c)
= P(X3=c|X2=a) P(X =a) P(X1=a)
2
Pr(X1=a,X2=b,X3=a)
= P(X3=a|X2=b) P(X =b) P(X1=a)
2
Take any ordering of the variables (say, the order given). From the
chain rule we obtain.
Pr(X1,,Xn) = Pr(Xn|X1,,Xn-1)Pr(Xn-1|X1,,Xn-2)Pr(X1)
Causal Intuitions
The
Pr(X1,,Xn) = Pr(Xn|X1,,Xn-1)Pr(Xn-1|X1,,Xn-2)Pr(X1)
requires as much space to represent as specifying the
probability of each individual event.
9
Causal Intuitions
10
Causal Intuitions
Malaria,
11
12
Causal Intuitions
Causal Intuitions
Pr(C|A) Pr(C)
13
Causal Intuitions
a much more
complex Bayes net. In
fact, we obtain no savings
over explicitly
representing the full joint
distribution (i.e.,
representing the
probability of every
atomic event).
Obtain
14
15
MaryCalls
16
Burglary Example
M, J, A, B, E
P(J | M) = P(J)?
17
Example continue
Suppose we choose the ordering
18
Example continue
M, J, A, B, E
P(J | M) = P(J)? No
P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)?
M, J, A, B, E
P(J | M) = P(J)? No
P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? No
P(B | A, J, M) = P(B | A)?
P(B | A, J, M) = P(B)?
19
20
Example continue
Example continue
P(J | M) = P(J)? No
P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? No
P(B | A, J, M) = P(B | A)? Yes
P(B | A, J, M) = P(B)? No
P(E | B, A ,J, M) = P(E | A)?
P(E | B, A, J, M) = P(E | A, B)?
P(J | M) = P(J)? No
P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? No
P(B | A, J, M) = P(B | A)? Yes
P(B | A, J, M) = P(B)? No
P(E | B, A ,J, M) = P(E | A)? No
P(E | B, A, J, M) = P(E | A, B)? Yes
21
Example continue
23
22