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China's ASAT Test: Implications for India

Reshmi Kazi
Research Fellow, IPCS
http://www.ipcs.org/newKashmirLevel2.jsp?action=showView&kValue=2292&mod=null
&subCatID=null
Report of Seminar held at the IPCS, 18 April 2007<br>

Chair: Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Dipankar Banerjee, Director, IPCS


Speaker: Wg Cdr Ajay Lele, Research Fellow, IDSA

On 11 January 2007, China destroyed an ageing weather satellite of its own weighing 750kg and
orbiting at 850km above the earth. The anti-satellite weapon was a non-explosive "kinetic kill
vehicle," which destroyed its target by colliding with it. China's ASAT test is not the first attempt of
its kind; there were three unsuccessful attempts earlier but, in the January test, China used a
projectile as a weapon. The test is significant for space defence and disarmament but also for
China's foreign policy and future conflicts in which space might play a crucial role.

Emerging Issues

China's space activities are apparent from its White Paper released in 2006 wherein Beijing
declared that it would utilize outer space only for peaceful purposes. However, over the last three
to five years, reports indicate that China has been steadily investing in satellite weapons like the
parasitic satellite, which is essentially a nano-satellite, placed in the outer atmosphere and ignited
to destroy an enemy satellite. This satellite can be operated by attaching it to the enemy satellite
and then sending signals from the ground to eliminate the latter. China is also reported to have
made a breakthrough with navigation satellite jammers that are equipped to disrupt GPS.

According to a report in September 2006, the Chinese secretly fired a powerful laser weapon to
disable the keyhole series of American spy satellites by "blinding" their sensitive surveillance
devices and preventing spy photography when they pass over China. In spite of China's attempt
to disable the US satellites, the Bush administration did not condemn this action fearing that it
would jeopardize its attempts to co-opt China into its diplomatic offensives against North Korea
and Iran. China has exercised this capability against the US satellites on several occasions in
recent years. The aim, however, has not been to destroy American satellites. Nevertheless, the
American military has become so alarmed by the Chinese activity that it has made test attacks
against its own satellites to determine the severity of this threat.

A significant consequence of the anti-satellite test is that of space debris. Since there is no
gravitational force at this altitude whatever is fragmented remains there. Space junk is likely to
serious affect other satellites that are already orbiting in space or are launched in the future. After
the test, a series of mathematical models based on the rate of impact,

• the place where the impact took place, and the mass impacted concluded that there are
nearly 800 debris fragments of size 10 centimeters or larger were created

• there are nearly 40,000 debris fragments of a size between one and 10 centimeters

• there are some two million fragments of a size of one millimeter or larger are in space

These are initial figures. Scientists have started monitoring the region more carefully.Most
satellites do not carry sufficient shielding for even tiny particles and in any case shielding is
ineffective against any debris larger than one cm. This can create a major problem for satellites
orbiting in space. This region is very commonly used by civil and military satellites, which are
threatened by the added debris. The International Space Station might also encounter problems
because of debris. These problems are not theoretical assumptions either. For example, in June
1983, the windscreen of the US space shuttle, Challenger, had to be replaced after it was chipped
by a fleck of paint measuring 0.3mm and in 1996, a French spy satellite, Cerise, was struck by a
wheeling fragment left from an exploded Ariane rocket. In lower earth obit debris can take a
decade or longer before eventually burning up on contact with the Earth's atmosphere.

The ASAT test conducted by China indicates that space weaponization is going to be a prominent
problem in the present era. The Chinese wish to have an orbiting network of strike weapons that
will be concealed and launched in a crisis or emergency to bring the opponent down to its knees.

The recent history of war shows that the US had an asymmetrical advantage in satellite
technology in Gulf War I, the Afghan crisis and Gulf War II. The opponents had no information
from satellites. China believes that, in the event of a conflict with the US over Taiwan, the US will
have superiority with US spy satellites keeping vigilance over the Taiwan Straits. If these could be
destroyed, then coordinating any defence against a possible Chinese invasion would be virtually
impossible. If US space assets are compared with China, the ratio stands as 100: 1. China is thus
aware that it can never match the US in terms of numbers and technology, and the best option is
to develop asymmetrical advantages. One way of achieving this is weaponization of space a
policy triggered also by the recalcitrant space policy adopted by the US, which has consistently
rejected any proposals to ban space weapons or to enter into negotiations on space weaponry.

There are laws that prohibit countries from sending weapons into space and an informal
international understanding to avoid polluting space with the debris of exploded satellites. There
is a treaty regime also to regulate space activities comprising the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and
the Moon Treaty of 1979. In addition, Russia and China have always advocated a reliable space
regime, but the US has not supported this proposal. The UN bodies have also tried to regulate
space activities through various treaties. In 1959, the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer
Space (COPUOS) was formed. The Conference on Disarmament has also been striving for the
same though it has not been able to agree on the formation of an ad hoc committee with a
mandate for outer space since 1994. There is also the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer
Space (PAROS), proposal on the UN agenda since 1982, but nothing much has happened.

What is the Hitch?

It is very difficult to define a space weapon. Almost anything can be used as a weapon. There is
also the complex nature of verification in outer space that involves technical and financial
constraints. Some advocate a 'code-of-conduct' approach which is feasible when mutual interests
are defined. There also needs to be a mechanism to confer authority on the UN bodies to punish
infractions.

There are market concerns as well, surrounding space weapons. Military activities in space can
have a significant and immediate impact on the commercial satellite market, which is growing
presently at an exponential rate. Currently, there are about 175-200 low earth orbit (LEO)
commercial satellites in operation with a market investment of about US$120 billion. Hence, tests
like the ASAT, increase the financial risks of any satellite programme. The fallout would be felt by
the insurance companies whose main concern so far was associated with natural calamities or
technological failures. However, the present state of affairs brings a third factor into consideration.
If a particular country has strained relations with another county, then its satellites could be
attacked. This can lead to decreased investor confidence and high insurance rates.

Why did China Conduct the Test?

China feels that certain sections of its space assets are vulnerable with reference being made to
the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia (1999) using Joint Direct Attack
Munitions (JDAM), which are essentially munitions directed by a satellite. China has expressed
concerns about the capability of space assets to harm their interests and tried to convince the
Americans about the need to have global space laws, but have only received a cold response.
The Chinese feel that the Americans are not trustworthy in the area of space activities and that
that the four spy satellites launched by Japan post-1998 while overtly designed to tackle the
DPRK threat, have a covert Chinese angle too. Japanese investments in military space
technology also cannot be taken lightly by the Chinese in the light of current bilateral relations.
China has indicated however, that its test was a defensive one and was only undertaken to check
its technical capabilities.

The recent stock exchange crash shows that China has an impact on global economy. Hence,
the ASAT test should not be used to isolate China. If the global community could accept the
Indian bravado of going nuclear, then the same may happen to China after a few years; hence
China is not reading too much into the American condemnation of their test. Further, China has
pledged not to proliferate ASAT technology. China looks at the ASAT as 'deterrence' and will
continue to adhere by its 'no first use' policy.

Implications for India

It is doubtful whether China will use its ASAT capability that can currently be used only to hit LEO
satellites against India. Even though, the Indian IRS series falls in this zone they may not be a
lucrative target since they are primarily concerned with agriculture. The satellites that can be
future targets are the Cartosat and the Technology Experiment Satellite. China may utilize
jamming technology and laser technology to jam India's satellites. Pakistan could also benefit
from Chinese space technology and this has strategic implications for India. The ASAT test can
be expected to pose a challenge to India's C4ISR architecture. India is also striving towards
establishing its indigenous GPS network with its satellites placed in the MEO and LEO.

India needs to look at the military uses of space technologies and be prepared with its own
jamming technologies should the need arise. India should also lobby for a disarmament agenda
at the global level. India must also factor in the worst case scenario if China emerges as a "rogue
space power".

DISCUSSION

Space Debris

The ASAT test has added to the already existing debris in the space. There is a huge zone over
which this debris is spread. What are the technological solutions to handle this debris problem?
One way to do this is to nudge these pieces of debris into LEO and then into the endo-
atmosphere where they will burn out. This is a very expensive and complicated process and at
present, no technological breakthrough has been achieved whereby the debris can be brought
into LEO and then burnt up. The other way of containing the debris is to use a kinetic vehicle to
make the larger pieces of debris becomes smaller. Both these methods are untried and much
uncertainty is involved. The issue of debris proliferated by the Russians in the space during an
anti-satellite test conducted by them also remains an issue of concern.

There is no appreciation of the seriousness of the debris problem in India nor are there any
worthwhile international efforts to handle the existing problem of space debris. The problem
becomes graver because of the enormous speed at which this debris can travel and cause
serious damage to the sensitive parts of a satellite on collision. Unless, timely action is taken in
this regard space debris will become a grave danger rendering space virtually inaccessible. There
is a serious race going on among leading nations to get to the moon to establish their own
observatories, which will address the problem of tackling debris and other ecological challenges
in space.
Was the Chinese Leadership Aware of the ASAT test?

It has been claimed that there is an apparent disconnect between the political and military
leadership. However, one view holds that the existing political system within China makes it
virtually impossible to conduct a ASAT test without the political leadership being unaware of it.
Indeed, the reality is probably that the Chinese leadership was aware of the ASAT test since this
was the fourth test in the series. Another view is that while the Chinese political leadership was
aware of the test, it was not quite well-informed of the long term ramifications of the anti-satellite
test.

The US and the ASAT Test

There is an enormous gap in the capabilities of China and the US. The latter is far ahead of
China in the arena of anti-satellite testing. Hence, there is no reason for the US to be unduly
concerned about China's new feat. Since the Americans are not ready to negotiate any treaty in
the area of anti-satellite testing, the ASAT test was probably a way by which China could force the
US to come to the negotiating table and conclude a space regime treaty.

Arms Control Measures and Disarmament

The ASAT test affects the very fabric of verification regimes by threatening reconnaissance as
well as National Technical Means verification. This would lead to a very dangerous situation
where nuclear weapons states would go on hair trigger alert because of mutual suspicions. China
is a signatory to both the Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty. If Article 10 of the Outer
Space Treaty is strengthened there can be some jurisdiction to address issues like the ASAT test.
Technologically, however, it is not possible to conduct verification of all activities that are
proceeding at present. Space weaponization is increasingly becoming a challenge for the comity
of nations. With the US making no effort to implement any treaty to regulate space activities,
matters are assuming alarming proportions. Disarmament is thus the only viable solution to tackle
the weaponization of space

Insurance Companies

As compared to other countries, the money required by India and China to launch satellites into
the space is minimal at about one-fifth of the cost of western launches. China is looking at the
space market with a very clear agenda and thus would probably not like to jeopardize its own
chances. While none of the insurance companies have hiked their premium rates yet, it is
possible that China did not factor in the possible commercial fallout in the insurance market.

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