Lecture 5 (Sept 16, 2015)

Last Day

More graphical
displays
Histograms
Cumulative
frequency plots
Pareto diagrams
Digidot, time
series and
scatter plots

Today

Review of graphical
displays
Introduction to
probability
Basic definitions
Tree diagrams
Venn diagrams

Stem
(year)

Leaf (tenth of a year)

Frequency

38

023779

0112333455678899

16

01245668

13

7
8

0
4

Basic Probability
Probability of success = number of successful
outcomes/total number of outcomes
Experiment: any process that generates a set
of data
Ex: tossing a coin to see how many times you find
heads out of 100 tosses
Ex: study effect of different feedstocks on biogas
production in an anaerobic digester

Observation: any recording of information,

whether numerical (continuous) or categorical
(discrete)

Basic Probability
Sample space: set of all possible
outcomes of a statistical experiment

Each outcome in a sample space is called an

element or member of the sample space,
or sample point
If a sample space has a finite number of
elements, you can list the members in
enclosed brackets
Ex: Members of sample space (S) for the
tossing of a coin, with H = heads and T =
tails

S = {H, T}

Sample Space
Ex: Consider the experiment of the
tossing of a die. What is the sample
space, S?
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Ex: What is the sample space if we

are only interested in whether the top
of the die is even or odd?
S = {even, odd}

Sample Space
For sample spaces with a very large
number of data points, we define them by a
statement or rule instead of listing the
potential sample points in brackets
Ex: if all possible outcomes in a sample space
are the cities in the world with a population
greater than 500,000, we can write
S = {x x is a city with a population > 500,000}
Reads: S is the set of all x such that x is a city
with a population > 500,000

Tree Diagrams
A tree diagram is a graphical means
to list potential outcomes of an
experiment
Useful to help determine more
complex sample spaces

Example 5-1: Tree Diagram 1

An experiment consists of flipping a
coin, then flipping it again if heads
occurs. If tails occurs, then a die is
tossed once. Draw the tree diagram
for this sample space and list the
possible outcomes.

Example 5-2: Tree Diagram 2

Three items are selected at random
from a manufacturing process. Each
item is inspected and classified as
defective, D, or not defective, N.
Draw the tree diagram for this sample
space and list all possible outcomes.

Events
For any given experiment, we may be
interested in the occurrence of a
certain event, which represents a
subset of the sample space
Ex: we might be interested in event A
that the outcome when a die is tossed is
evenly divisible by 3
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
all possible outcomes
A = {3,6} event that the outcome is evenly divisible by 3

Events
An event is just data with some similar
characteristic that constitutes a subset of the
sample space
It is possible that the event may include the
entire sample space S
An event might contain no sample points or
elements
This is called a null set and given by

The complement (A) of an event (A) with

respect to sample space (S) is the subset of
all elements in S that are not in A.
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
A = {3,6}
A = {1,2,4,5}

Venn Diagrams
Venn diagrams are used to help
visualize events and sample spaces
Circle represents
subset A within
larger sample
space.
The circle encloses
some portion of the
data that have a
similar
characteristic. The
data outside the
circle do not have
this characteristic

Rectangle
encloses the
entire sample
space

A
6
3

5
A

Represents
complement of
subset A

Intersection of Events
Suppose C and D are two events
associated with the sample space S
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

C is the event that an even number

comes up
C = {2,4,6}

D is the event that a number greater

than 3 comes up
D = {4,5,6}

Intersection of Events
The subset that represents the
intersection of C and D is
C D = {4,6}
The intersection of two events C and
D (given by C D) contains only
elements that are common to C and
D

Venn Diagram

(Intersection of Events)
Sample space: rolling a die
Event C:
top number
is even

Event D: top
number is > 3

D
C

4
2

CD

5
3

Intersection of events given by area of

intersecting circles on Venn diagram

Multiple Events
For some events, say A and B, we
might be interested in the situation
where either A or B occurthis is the
union of A and B
The union of two events A and B is
denoted A B and contains all the
elements that belong to A or B or both
Ex: A = {a,b,c}
B = {b,c,d,e}
then A B = {a,b,c,d,e}

Multiple Events
B
A

4
2

3
6

B = {1,2,3,4,5}

What is A, B, and C complements?

Mutually Exclusive Events

It is possible that two events, say E
and F, cannot both occur
simultaneously. The events E and F
are said to be mutually exclusive.
Two events E and F are mutually
exclusive, or disjoint, if E F =
E and F have no elements in common

Venn Diagram

(Mutually Exclusive Events)

EF=
and
intersection

E F = {1,2}
or
union

Additional Sample Space Concepts

A=

=A

intersection with a null set is a null set

union of an event and a null set is the event

A A =

intersection of an event and its complement is the null set

A = S

union of an event and its complement is the sample space

S =
(A

complement of the sample space is a null set

B) = A B

complement of the union of A and B is the

intersection of the complement of A and the
complement of B
(A B) = A B complement of the intersection of A and B is the
union of the complement of A and the complement of B
(A B) = A + B - A B = addition rule
A B = A x B multiplication rule
(A U B) C = (A C) U (B C) and (A B) U C = (A U C) (B U C)=distributive law

Next day
More probability
Venn diagram examples
Re-learning to count

This material is covered in Chapter 2

in the text