Cities 46 (2015) 815

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Cities
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cities

Urbanization bubble: Four quadrants measurement model

Jingyang Zhou a,b, Xiaoling Zhang c, Liyin Shen b,d,
a

School of Management and Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan, PR China

School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, PR China
c
Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
d
International Research Center for Sustainable Built Environment, Chongqing University, Chongqing, PR China
b

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 23 January 2015
Received in revised form 15 April 2015
Accepted 24 April 2015
Available online 29 April 2015
Keywords:
Sustainable urbanization
Urbanization bubble
Urbanization rate
Urbanization bubble velocity
Coordinate method

a b s t r a c t
The proper understanding of the urbanization bubble is very important to assist local governments in
adopting strategies to mitigate the effects of the bubble and guide urbanization toward sustainable development. This paper presents a method of measuring the urbanization bubble with particular reference to
China. In referring to the denition of an economic bubble, this study denes the urbanization bubble as a
dynamic process in which urbanization rate (UR) deviates from four urbanization performance variables
comprising the proportion of urban population with registration (TRP), urban construction land area (TBA),
level of industrial development (LID) and level of public facilities (LPF). Four coordinates are formed
between the rate of urbanization and the four performance variables to examine the practice of urbanization in terms of four quadrants. The ratios between changes in urbanization rate and the changes of
the four urbanization performance variables are introduced to measure the urbanization bubble. The
method is tested through a case study to show that the coordinate method has the potential to help policy makers detect any bubble in the process of urbanization.
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Urbanization, commonly dened as the migration of people
from rural to urban areas, has been a major trend of the 20th
and 21st centuries (United Nations, 2012). China is urbanizing at
an unprecedented speed (Hogan, Bunnell, Pow, Permanasari, &
Morshidi, 2012), and two in every three persons in China will live
in urban areas by 2025 (DESA-UN, 2011). Urbanization plays a signicant role in enhancing the value of societys total output and
increasing economic growth (Brown & Neuberger, 1977). These
benets have motivated the Chinese government to implement
various schemes to improve sustainable urban development
(Shen & Zhou, 2014).
However, the dramatically increasing levels of urbanization
worldwide has created concerns for the sustainability of cities
(Isendahl & Smith, 2013). This is especially the case in China, where
many local governments increasingly place more emphasis on
speed than quality when implementing urbanization strategies.
Urbanization in China is of a typical government-lead style instead
of one that is market-oriented (Xu, 2004). Previous studies suggest
Corresponding author at: School of Construction Management and Real Estate,
Chongqing University, Chongqing, PR China.
E-mail addresses: zhoujingyang7810@163.com (J. Zhou), xiaoling.zhang@cityu.
edu.hk (X. Zhang), shenliyin@cqu.edu.cn (L. Shen).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.04.007
0264-2751/ 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

that ignoring the inherent law of urbanization will result in a mismatch between urbanization and industrialization, urban population growth and urban infrastructure development and cause a
conict of interests between rural migrant workers and urban residents (Fu, Liu, & Zhao, 2012; Zhang, 2006). In particular, these
problems lead to a discrepancy between land use and economic
growth. For example, from 1981 to 2011, urban construction land
in China increased from 7415 km2 to 41,861 km2, with a 15% average annual growth rate. However, the annual economic growth
rate was far below 15% over the same period (China Statistical
Yearbook, 2012). Some scholars (e.g. Wang, 2011; Xu, 2004) refer
to this phenomenon caused by government-lead urbanization as
the urbanization bubble, which results in social problems such as
environmental pollution, population explosion, and steep increase
in consumables prices hindering sustainable urbanization.
There have been various attempts to address these problems.
For example, research on the impact of urbanization on social
and eco-environmental systems has been conducted to provide a
reference for implementing sustainable urbanization strategies
(Lehmann, 2012; Madlener & Sunak, 2011; Morinire, 2012).
Assessment models have been established to understand concerns
regarding sustainable urbanization and assess the quality of urbanization from the perspectives of economic, social and environmental performance (Bossel, 1999; Hemphill, Berry, & McGreal, 2004;
Steurer & Hametner, 2011; Vera & Langlois, 2007). Various

J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815

technological methods such as low carbon emission, air and noise

pollution control and waste management have been developed to
promote urban environment protection and sustainable urbanization (Haase, Haase, Kabisch, & Bischoff, 2008; Jantz, Goetz, &
Shelley, 2004; Ward, Phinn, & Murray, 2000). In a recent study,
Shen, Ochoa, Zhang, and Peng (2013) create an experience mining
framework to assist city managers in implementing sustainable
urbanization strategies so as to prevent the formation of the urbanization bubble.
The only extant research on the urbanization bubble as such is
Wangs (2011) study of 35 Chinese cities from 1999 to 2008, which
highlighted the general inuence of provincial population, economy and space. However, no other studies have developed more
specic ways of measuring the urbanization bubble or understanding when a process of urbanization is turning into a bubble situation. In particular, there is a lack of quantitative methods available,
which is hindering urban managers and planners in selecting
appropriate urbanization strategies. This paper aims to ll this
research gap by developing a tool for measuring the urbanization
bubble.
2. Sustainable urbanization and the urbanization bubble
2.1. Sustainable urbanization
Urbanization is intimately related to economic development,
human livelihood, and profound changes in patterns of human
behavior (Bettencourt, Lobo, Helbing, Khnert, & West, 2007).
It is a process in which industrial structure, peoples living environment, land and geographical space gradually transform to
modern urban society (Ejaro & Abubakar, 2013). Sustainable
urbanization aims to achieve an equilibrium between humans
and the natural resources (Rasoolimanesh, Badarulzaman, &
Jaafar, 2012). This is echoed in many other studies, arguing that
sustainable urbanization involves the harmony and balance
between economic, environmental and social necessities
(Alberti & Marzluff, 2004; Hezri & Hasan, 2004; Shen, Peng,
Zhang, & Wu, 2012; Yigitcanlar, 2009). Sustainable urbanization,
as the embodiment of sustainable development, occurs only
when the urbanization process harmonizes with the principles
of sustainable development (Pivo, 1996). It focuses on keeping
balance between economic benet and the environment, ecology
and society in order to realize the coordinated development
between different regions and sectors. Therefore, cities or towns
should develop their social and economic structure in such a
way that resources of all kinds can be utilized as efciently as
possible without damaging their natural environment
(Rasoolimanesh et al., 2012).
In the case of China, sustainable urbanization not only involves
an increase in the city and urban population, but must also bring
about improvement of the level of infrastructure, efciency of land
use, level of industrialization, level of agricultural modernization
and the quality of peoples lives (Wu, 2011; Wu & Sun, 2010).
The ultimate goal of urbanization is to improve peoples welfare
and quality of life through coordinated development between
social, economic and environmental dimensions in order to satisfy
the needs of both the current and future generations (Van den
Berg, Hartig, & Staats, 2007).
2.2. Urbanization bubble
The term bubble is a focus of research for economists and
nancial market participants (Hommes, Sonnemans, Tuinstra, &
van de Velden, 2008; Matsuoka & Shibata, 2012; Nneji, Brooks, &
Ward, 2013; Painter & Yu, 2013; Stckl, Huber, & Kirchler, 2010).

An economic bubble, derived from Kindleberge in 1987, is dened

as a process in which a continuously rising asset price suddenly
collapses (Palgrave, 1987). Although there is disagreement and
controversy over the denition of the bubble, most economists
and nancial market participants consider it to be the rational
deviation of the price from an intrinsic value (Blanchard &
Watson, 1983; Smith, King, Williams, & Boening, 1993).
Furthermore, Noussair, Robin, and Rufeux (2001) provide two
conditions to determine whether there is a bubble in an asset market: (a) the median transaction price in ve consecutive periods is
at least 50 units of experimental currency (about 13.9%) greater
than the fundamental value; and (b) the average price is at least
two standard deviations (of transaction prices) greater than the
fundamental value for ve periods.
The issue of bubble economy in China has also been a major
research interest. Some economists believe that it is a state of
economic growth in which there is a very high rate or expansion rate of scale (Ling, 1998; Xiong, 1998) and of a kind that
cannot create any actual benets to peoples living standard,
income level or industrial structure of the national economy
(Lu, 1998). As Muellbauer and Murphy (2008) indicate, house
price bubbling is a systematic deviation of house prices from
levels that are explained by fundamentals such as household
income and rent. In reality, a bubble economy usually appears
as an excessively quick rise of asset prices, such as real estate
prices, stock prices, securities and other nancial assets. For
example, the house price bubble refers to a situation in which
the excessive public expectation of future price increases causes
real estate prices to be temporarily elevated (Case & Shiller,
2003).
The urbanization bubble, sometimes called false urbanization or
excessive urbanization, has not been clearly dened. The connotation of urbanization bubble has been explained from different perspectives. From the population perspective, for example, the
urbanization bubble is referred to as the increase in the proportion
of urban population to the total population during a given time
interval (Namboodiri, 1996; Zhao, 2005). In this situation, the lifestyle and living quality of migrations from rural to urban areas is
not substantially improved. As far as land use is concerned, the
urbanization bubble is a phenomena where the expansion speed
of the urban area exceeds the speed of population urbanization
(Ren & Li, 2006). This kind of urbanization relies on extensively
enlarging urban areas to realize the local governments goal of
becoming an international metropolis. From the economic perspective, the urbanization bubble is primarily driven by demographic forces, particularly rural to urban migration, rather than
by economic and industrial activities (Agbola, 2005; Hartshorn,
Dent, Heck, & Stutz, 1980). In this case, the speed of urbanization
is much higher than that of economic industrialization, leading
to the deviation between the urbanization level and economic
development level. Others argue that urban infrastructure is a
key ingredient in the success of a city in the business world
(Shome, 2013). The urbanization bubble happens when cities cannot provide migrants with affordable and accessible public services
and supporting facilities, such as regular water and electricity supplies, housing, health services and public transport (Ejaro &
Abubakar, 2013).
This suggests the need an equilibrium relationship between
population increase, land use, industrial development and the level
of public services and infrastructure in order to avoid an urbanization bubble. In other words, the process of urbanization needs to be
harmony with the development of the urban economy and living
standards. If the equilibrium relationship is disturbed, especially
when the urbanization rate exceeds the level of other fundamentals such as public facilities and industrial development, an urbanization bubble will form.

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J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815

3. Variables and measurements of the urbanization bubble

3.1. Variables for measuring the urbanization bubble
(1) The basic variables are:
 Population bubble. A population bubble means that the
process of urbanization depends mostly on the inow
of migrant workers from rural areas. With Chinas household registration system, which fails to recognize such
migrants as urban residents, this means that many
migrants cannot enjoy the same benets as the established urban residents a situation in which, if sufciently severe, a population bubble will appear.
Therefore, for a bubble-free urbanization process, the rate
of registration of migrant families as urban households
should keep in pace with the development of
urbanization.
 Land use bubble. A land use bubble reects the expansion
of urban construction land area being critically faster
than that of the urban population. Therefore, an equilibrium between the increase of urban population and
urban area expansion is needed to avoid the development
of a land use bubble.
 Industrial development bubble. An industrial development bubble reects the difference in the level of industrial development and level of urbanization. An industrial
development bubble will appear if the balance between
the speed of industrial development and urbanization
growth is disturbed.
 Infrastructure development bubble. An infrastructure
development bubble means that the level of infrastructure and facilities cannot meet the demands of the urbanization process. In other words, if the level of urban
infrastructure and facilities does not catch up with the
speed of urbanization and expansion of the urban area,
an infrastructure development bubble will be inevitable.
(2) Based on the denition of a bubble from these four perspectives, therefore, the variables contributing to the urbanization bubble comprise the proportion of urban population
with registration (TRP), urban construction land area (TBA),
level of industrial development (LID) and level of urban
infrastructure and facilities (LPF). To proceed further, it is
necessary to normalize these variables because they are
measured on different scales. These are represented as T 0RP ,
T 0BA , L0ID , and L0PF respectively.
(3) The urbanization bubble reects a change process in which a
systematic deviation of urbanization rate (UR) from the
levels explained by TRP, TBA, LID and LPF exists. The velocities
V UR , V T RP , V T BA , V LID , and V LPF of the urbanization rate (UR)
and the four variables describe these deviations.
(4) Using the ve velocities enables the derivation of the ratios

V UR
V UR
b
V T RP
V T BA

V UR
V
q UR
V LID
V LPF

to identify the existence of an urbanization bubble.

3.2. Measuring the variables
3.2.1. Urbanization rate (UR)
The urbanization rate (UR) is generally measured by the ratio of
dwellers in urban areas to the total number of dwellers.1 The value
of UR changes with the dynamic migration of people from rural to
1
Although there are different denitions of urban area (Fay & Opal, 2000;
Williamson, 1965).

urban areas. Therefore, there is a specic value of UR at a given time

in the process of urbanization. The magnitude of the change in
urbanization rate in a period of time from t1 to t2 can be measured
by urbanization velocity (V U R ) as

V UR

U 0Rt2  U 0Rt1
t2  t1

DU 0R
Dt

where U 0Rt2 and U 0Rt1 are the values of UR after normalization at t1 and
t2 respectively, DU 0R is the variation of urbanization rate in the specied time interval, and Dt is the increment of time interval.
3.2.2. Proportion of urban population with registration (TRP)
The proportion of registered urban population is measured by
the ratio of registered urban residents to the total urban population. The value of TRP varies in the process of urbanization as both
the former and latter vary. Therefore, the velocity of the proportion
of registered urban population, V T RP , is used to measure the significance of change of the ratio from t1 to t2 as

V T RP

T 0RPt2  T 0RPt1
t2  t1

DT 0RP
Dt

where V T RP is the velocity of the proportion of registered urban population, T 0RPt2 and T 0RPt1 are the value of TRP after normalization at t2
and t1 respectively, DT 0RP is the variation of proportion of registered
urban population in the specied time interval, and Dt is the increment of time interval.
3.2.3. Urban construction land area (TBA)
The urban construction land area (TBA) is the land area for urban
construction. The value of TBA varies during urban expansion.
Therefore, there is a specic value of TBA at a given time in the process of urbanization. The velocity of urban construction land area
(V T BA ), which measures the signicance of a change in urban construction land area during t1 to t2 is

V T BA

T 0BAt2  T 0BAt1
t2  t1

DT 0BA
Dt

where V T BA is the velocity of urban construction land area, T 0BAt2 and

T 0BAt1 are the values of TBA after normalization at t2 and t1 respectively and DT 0BA is the variation of urbanization construction land
area in a specied time interval
3.2.4. Level of industrial development (LID)
The variable LID reects the status of industrial development by
a set of indicators in three aspects of industrialization, service
industry and agricultural modernization as shown in Table 1.
There is a specic value of the level of industrial development
(LID) at a given point of time in the process of urbanization. The signicance of a change in the level of industrial development from t1
to t2, can be measured by industrial development velocity (V LID ) as

V LID

L0IDt2  L0IDt1
t2  t1

DL0ID
Dt

where L0IDt2 and L0IDt1 are the value of LID after normalization at t2 and
t1 respectively and DL0ID is the variation of the level of industrial
development in a specied time interval.
3.2.5. Level of urban infrastructure and facilities (LPF)
The level of urban infrastructure and facilities (LPF) is measured
by a set of indicators as shown in Table 2. These indicators are concerned with the aspects of energy, water resource, transportation,
communication and environment.

J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815

11

Table 1
Indicators for evaluating the level of industrial development.
Aspects

Indicators

Main sources

X1: Industrialization

X11: the proportion of industrial production in GDP

X12: the proportion of industrial practitioners in total
employment population
X21: the proportion of service workers in total employment
population
X22: the proportion of added value of service industry in service
output
X31: total power of agricultural machinery
X32: land productivity

Wang and Wu (2006), Yang, Luo, and Zhang (2005)

X2: Service industry

X3: Agricultural
modernization

Indicators

Main sources

I1

Annual electricity supply per

capita
The ability of supplying tap
water
Urban road space per capita
Internet users per 100
population
Green area per capita
Density of drainage pipeline

Li and Xia (2006), Pan and Ma

(2007)

I2
I3
I4
I5
I6

There is a specic value of the level of urban infrastructure and

facilities (LPF) at a given point of time in the process of urbanization. The velocity of the level of urban public facilities during t1
to t2, is given by

V LPF

L0PF t2

L0PF t1

t2  t1

DL0PF
Dt

Guo and Li (2003), Jiang and Huang (2006), Ma and Gong (2010), Xin
and Jing (2010)

the ratios a, b, r and q. Values of these ratios close to 1 indicate that

the changes in urbanization rate (V UR ) are better-coordinated with
the changes in other four variables (V T RP , V T BA , V LID , and V LPF ). In other
words, there is a harmonious development in the process of urbanization. The model provides rm qualitative guidance on the likelihood of the existence of a bubble based on the statistical data
analyzed and is therefore a signicant advancement on the intuitive
and highly subjective crisis management approach currently used
in practice.
This is addressed in detail as follows. The relationships that
apply in quadrant (I) for all four coordinates are

Table 2
Indicators for assessing the level of urban infrastructures and facilities.
Code

Shi and Liu (2009), Zhang, Zhao, and Wang (2008)

where V LPF is the velocity of the level of urban infrastructures and

facilities, L0PF t2 and L0PF t1 are the value of LPF after normalization at
t2 and t1 respectively and DL0PF is the variation of the level of urban
infrastructure and facilities in a specied time interval.
4. Coordinate-based discrimination criterion for measuring
urbanization bubble
As discussed earlier, the value of the urbanization rate UR need
to be harmonious relationship with the values of other variables,
including TRP, TBA, LID and LPF, so that the urbanization bubble can
be avoided. In other words, the urbanization bubble will occur if
the changes in urbanization rate (V UR ) are not well related to
changes in the other four variables. A coordinate tool is used to
evaluate this relationship. The four coordinates between V U R and
other four velocities (V T RP , V T BA , V LID , and V LPF ) involved are
described as V UR  V T RP , V UR  V T BA , V UR  V LID , and V UR  V LPF coordinate, and expressed graphically in Fig. 1(a)(d). For each coordinate, there are four types of scenarios located in four quadrants,
which can be analyzed as follows:
(1) Quadrant (I)
Quadrant (I) in all the four coordinates in Fig. 1 represents the
relationships

V UR > 0 and V T RP > 0 and V T BA > 0 and V LID > 0 and V LPF > 0
where V UR > 0 indicates a growth of urbanization, while V T RP > 0,
V LID > 0, V LPF > 0 suggests an improvement of urbanization quality
and V T BA > 0 indicates the expansion of urban area. Whether a bubble occurs in the process of urbanization depends on the values of

(a) a > 1, b > 1, r > 1, q > 1,

(b) a = 1, b = 1, r = 1, q = 1,
(c) a < 1, b < 1, r < 1, q < 1.
These three scenarios are described in detail in Tables 36.
(2) Quadrant (II)
Quadrant (II) in all the four coordinates in Fig 1 represents the
relationships:

V UR < 0 and V T RP > 0 and V T BA > 0 and V LID > 0 and V LPF > 0
where V UR < 0 indicates a counter-urbanization process, V T RP > 0,
V LID > 0, V LPF > 0 an improvement of urbanization quality and
V T BA > 0 indicates the expansion of urban area. In referring to quadrant (II) in Fig. 1(a), (c), (d), the three scenarios: (a) V UR < 0 and
V T RP > 0, (b) V UR < 0 and V LID > 0, and (c) V UR < 0 and V LPF > 0 indicate a sustainable bubble-free counter-urbanization process. This
phenomenon occurs when the social and ecological conditions
and infrastructure levels in rural areas are improved sufciently
for urban people to be willing to move to rural areas.
In quadrant (II) in Fig. 1(b), the scenario of V UR < 0 and V T BA > 0
indicates that local governments expand urban areas to advance
the urbanization process, which appreciates the value of the
acquired rural lands. People in urban areas try every way possible
to become rural residents to obtain land revenue, which justies
the strategy of urban-rural integration.
(3) Quadrant (III)
Quadrant (III) in all the four coordinates in Fig. 1 represents the
relationships

V UR < 0 and V T RP < 0 and V T BA < 0 and V LID < 0 and V LPF < 0
where V UR < 0 indicates a counter-urbanization process, V T RP < 0,
V LID < 0, V LPF < 0 a deterioration in urbanization quality and
V T BA < 0 indicates the slow-down of urban expansion. In referring
to the quadrant (III) in Fig. 1(a), (c), (d), the three scenarios: (a)
V UR < 0 and V T RP < 0, (b) V UR < 0 and V LID < 0, and (c) V UR < 0 and

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J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815

VT

VT

BA

RP

II

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

II

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

III

VU

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

III

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

II

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

-0.2

VU

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

0.3

0.2

PF

0.4

-0.1

III

VU

0.5

0.3

-0.1

0.5

VL

0.4

-0.3

0.4

IV

ID

0.5

-0.4

0.3

(b)
VL

-0.5

0.2

-0.2

(a)

II

0.1

-0.1

IV

-0.2

0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-0.1

IV

III

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

(c)

VU

IV

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

(d)
Fig. 1. Coordinates for measuring urbanization bubble.

Table 3
The three scenarios in referring to a.

Table 4
The three scenarios in referring to b.

Scenarios

Scenarios

a>1

a=1

a<1

b>1

b=1

b<1

V U R > V T RP
This is considered a risk
of population
urbanization bubble.
Measures should be
taken to give more
interests to the
migrations from
rural areas

V UR = V T RP
This is considered the
perfect status of
urbanization process.
There is no bubble in
the process of
urbanization

V U R < V T RP
This is considered no
urbanization bubble.
Measures should be
taken to improve
urbanization process

V U R > V T BA
This is considered no
bubble in industrial
development.
Measures should be
taken to balance the
relationship between
urban expansion and
population increase

V U R = V T BA
This is considered the
perfect status of
urbanization process.
There is no bubble in
the process of
urbanization

V U R < V T BA
This is considered a risk
of urbanization bubble
in land use. Measures
should be taken to
expropriate urban
construction land
rationally

V LPF < 0 again indicate a bubble-free urbanization process.

However, V T RP < 0, V LID < 0, V LPF < 0 mean the practice of urbanization is unsustainable as it occurs when the social and ecological systems of a given city are so bad that its carrying capacity has been
destroyed and the urban people to rural areas. In quadrant (III) in

Fig. 1(b), the scenario of V UR < 0 and V T BA < 0, refers to a process

of counter-urbanization and deceleration of urban expansion. This
is bubble-free urbanization from the perspective of land use and
the practice of urbanization is a sustainable process providing the
changes in urbanization rate and changes of land use are consistent.

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J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815

Table 5
The three scenarios in referring to r.
Scenarios

r>1

r=1

r<1

V U R > V LID
This is considered a
risk of urbanization
bubble in
industrial
development.
Measures should
be taken to
improve industrial
development

V U R = V LID
This is considered the
perfect status of
urbanization process.
There is no bubble in the
process of urbanization

V U R < V LID
This is considered no
bubble in industrial
development. Measures
should be taken to
improve urbanization
process

Table 6
The three scenarios in referring to q.
Scenarios

q>1

q=1

q<1

V U R > V LPF
This is considered a
risk of urbanization
bubble in
infrastructure
development.
Measures should be
taken to improve
urban infrastructure
and facilities
development

V U R = V LPF
This is considered the
perfect status of
urbanization process.
There is no bubble in the
process of urbanization

V U R < V LPF
This is considered no
bubble in infrastructure
development. Measures
should be taken to
improve urbanization
process

(4) Quadrant (IV)

Quadrant (IV) in all the four coordinates in Fig. 1 represents the
relationships:

V UR > 0 and V T RP < 0 and V T BA < 0 and V LID < 0 and V LPF < 0
where V U R > 0 indicates a growth of urbanization, V T RP < 0, V T BA < 0,
V LID < 0, V LPF < 0 a deterioration of urbanization quality and
decrease of urban expansion.
In referring to the quadrant (IV) in Fig. 1(a), (c), (d), the three scenarios: (a) V UR > 0 and V T RP < 0, (b) V UR > 0 and V LID < 0, and (c)
V UR > 0 and V LPF < 0 indicate that there is a serious urbanization
bubble and measures are needed to improve the quality of urbanization. In quadrant (IV) in Fig. 1(b), V U R > 0 and V T BA < 0 indicate
that urbanization managers are placing more emphasis on increasing urban population rather than the blind expansion of the urban
area. Therefore, there is no land use bubble in the process of urbanization. Another reason for this situation is that there is a serious
lack of space for construction land use due to a previously excessive
expansion of urban space in the urbanization process. There is
therefore a risk of a shortage of urban land resources in the future.

Yearbook of Qingdao, Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province,

China City Statistical Yearbook, the ofcial website of the
Qingdao government and other relevant published literature. The
detailed data are listed in Table 7.

5.2. Data analysis

By applying the data in Table 7 to Eqs. (1)(5), the values of V U R ,
V T RP , V T BA , V LID , V LPF , and the four ratios (a, b, r, q) are obtained. The
results are summarized in Table 8, showing that V UR > 0, V T RP > 0,
V T BA > 0, V LID > 0 and V LPF > 0. Therefore, the urbanization of
Qingdao city from 2005 to 2012 can be allocated to quadrant (I)
for all four coordinates. This indicates a growth of urbanization,
and an improvement of urbanization quality and expansion of
the urban area. The values of the ratios a, b, r, q are illustrated
in Fig. 2, showing their considerable variation over the period.
The urbanization in this period can also be analyzed in three contiguous epochs: (a) 20052009; (b) 20092010; and (c) 2011
2012. This can be conducted by referring to the discrimination criteria in Tables 36.
The results in Fig. 2 represent the relationships a < 1, b < 1, r < 1
and q < 1 in the 20052009 epoch. The discriminations a < 1, r < 1
and q < 1 indicate a bubble-free urbanization process from the perspectives of population, industrial development and infrastructure
development. However, the relation b < 1 suggests there are risks
of an urban land use bubble due to the speed of urban space expansion exceeding the speed of population urbanization. This is
because the Qingdao government at that time was pushing to
speed up urbanization by expansion of urban space.
The relationships: a > 1, b > 1, r > 1 and q > 1 in the 20092010
epoch. The discriminations a > 1, r > 1, and q > 1 indicate that
there exists a serious urbanization bubble from the perspectives
of population, industrial development and infrastructure development. Furthermore, the dramatic increase in the values of a, r, and
q indicate that the risks of a bubble in population, industrial development and infrastructure development were intensifying during
the period. This is due to the Qingdao government vigorously promoting the urbanization process at the time. However, the urbanization practice in Qingdao showed a typical authoritarian style, in
which the local government accelerated the urbanization rate largely by expansion of population, while neglecting the improvement of urbanization quality. Nevertheless, the relationship b > 1
indicates that there was no bubble from the perspective of land
use in this period.
The relationships a > 1, b > 1, r > 1 and q > 1 in the 20112012
epoch suggests that there is an urbanization bubble from the perspectives of population, industrial development and infrastructure
development. However, the bubble gradually diminishes, as indicated by the decrease of the values of a, r and q in this period.
This is because the Qingdao government realized the serious
urbanization bubble problems that were occurring at that time

5. Application of the coordinate-based discrimination method

to measuring the urbanization bubble
This section presents a demonstration and test of the use of the
coordinate-based discrimination method for measuring the urbanization bubble of Qingdao, a coastal city of the Shandong province
of China. Qingdao is atypical rapidly developing urbanized coastal
open city. A research link with the Central Government of Qingdao
ensures the quality of data available for analysis.
5.1. Data collection
The data for the urbanization rate and the four other variables
were collected for the period of 20052012 from the Statistical

Table 7
Detailed data of urbanization rate and other four variables.
Years

UR (%)

TRP (%)

TBA (km2)

LID

LPF

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

63.20
63.59
63.90
64.31
64.68
65.81
66.52
67.14

60.32
61.14
61.45
61.77
62.71
62.84
62.98
63.15

178.8
227.5
250.7
267.1
272.9
282.3
291.5
374.6

0.087
0.194
0.320
0.457
0.557
0.704
0.772
0.831

0.046
0.269
0.371
0.421
0.514
0.588
0.707
1.000

Note: the values of LID and LPF are the results after assessment by indicators in
Tables 1 and 2.

14

J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815

Table 8
The values of velocities and ratios of all variables for Qingdao city.
Years

V UR

V T RP

V T BA

V LID

V LPF

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

0.000
0.086
0.069
0.082
0.082
0.250
0.157
0.137

0.000
0.290
0.110
0.113
0.332
0.046
0.049
0.060

0.298
0.626
0.724
0.246
5.442
3.175
2.283

0.000
0.249
0.118
0.084
0.030
0.048
0.047
0.424

0.347
0.579
0.977
2.763
5.207
3.343
0.323

0.000
0.107
0.126
0.137
0.100
0.147
0.069
0.059

0.808
0.544
0.599
0.819
1.702
2.290
2.340

0.000
0.223
0.102
0.050
0.092
0.074
0.120
0.293

0.387
0.675
1.624
0.888
3.368
1.312
0.469

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4
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