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ROC Curves
ROC Curves
There were 600 cases from a defined population that had been subjected to some diagnostic Test
A, Test B and Test C.
In Test A, 120 people test result was positive and 480 people test result was negative. Suppose
that 100 actually positive cases and 500 actually negative cases were ultimately found in the
population studied and that the diagnostic test to be evaluated yielded 70 true positive (TP)
decisions, 30 false negative (FN) decision, 450 true negative (TN) decisions and 50 false positive
(FP) decisions.
In Test B, 60 people test result was positive and 540 people test result was negative. Suppose
that 100 actually positive cases and 500 actually negative cases were ultimately found in the
population studied and that the diagnostic test to be evaluated yielded 40 TP decisions, 60 FN
decision, 480 TN decisions and 20 FP decisions.
In Test C, 70 people test result was positive and 530 people test result was negative. Suppose
that 100 actually positive cases and 500 actually negative cases were ultimately found in the
population studied and that the diagnostic test to be evaluated yielded 45 TP decisions, 55 FN
decision, 475 TN decisions and 25 FP decisions.
Calculated indices
70
50
120
30
450
480
100
500
TPF=70/100=0.7
FNF=1-TPF=0.3
FPF=50/500=0.1
TNF-1-FPF=0.9
P(D+)=100/600=0.17, P(D-)=1-P(D+)=0.83
Accuracy=TPF*P(D+)+TNF*P(D-)=0.7*0.17+0.9*0.83=0.866
TestBresult
Positive(T+) Negative(T)
Actualresult
Positive(D+)
Negative(D)
TotalBtestresults
40
20
60
TotalActualStates
60
480
540
100
500
Calculated indices
TPF=40/100=0.4
FNF=1-TPF=0.6
FPF=20/500=0.04
TNF-1-FPF=0.96
P(D+)=100/600=0.17, P(D-)=1-P(D+)=0.83
Accuracy=TPF*P(D+)+TNF*P(D-)=0.4*0.17+0.96*0.83=0.865
TestCresult
Positive(T+) Negative(T)
Actualresult
Positive(D+)
Negative(D)
TotalBtestresults
45
25
70
55
475
530
TotalActualStates
100
500
TPF=45/100=0.45
FNF=1-TPF=0.55
FPF=25/500=0.05
TNF-1-FPF=0.95
P(D+)=100/600=0.17, P(D-)=1-P(D+)=0.83
0.865
Accuracy=TPF*P(D+)+TNF*P(D-)=0.45*0.17+0.95*0.83=0.893
2)
all theon
accuracy
values are very
close to
each other,
is veryChard
to tell whether
which
is better.
2)As
Based
the calculated
indices,
accuracy
ofitTest
is highest,
0.893,
sotest
Test
C is best
among
the three tests; however, it is very hard to which is better between Test A and Test B, because the
accuracy of Test A, 0.866 is very close to the accuracy of Test B, 0.865.
3)
ROCCurve
1
1,1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.1,0.7
TPF
0.6
0.5
TestB
0.4
0.04,0.4
TestA
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
FPF
Based on the ROC curve, the area under Test A is much larger than the one under Test B. So,
Test A is better than Test B.