Professional Documents
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Probability
Probability
Probability
Math 10
Classical probability
Empirical probability
Part 2
Probability
Subjective probability
Examples of Probability
Classical Probability
Event
Outcome
A result of an experiment
A result of the experiment that cannot be broken down into smaller
events
Sample Space
Empirical Probability
Historical Data
Relative Frequencies
Example: What is
the chance someone
rates their
community as good
or better?
0.51 + 0.32 = 0.83
Rule of Complement
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
51
32
13
Rating
Ex
ce
l
G
oo
d
Fa
ir
Po
or
O
th
er
Complement of an
event
The event does not
occur
A is the
complement of A
P(A) + P(A) =1
P(A) = 1 P(A)
A
A
Part 2 Probability
Additive Rule
Example
Additive Rule:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
Mutually Exclusive
Conditional Probability
Mutually Exclusive
Both cannot occur
If A and B are mutuallyy exclusive,, then
A: Roll 2 or less
B: Roll 5 or more
P(A)=2/6 P(B)=2/6
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 4/6
A=AT&T subscriber
B=Smart Phone User
P(A and B) = .15
P(A)=.25
P(B|A) = .15/.25 = .60
Contingency Tables
Contingency Tables
No Accident
Total
DUI
70
130
200
Non- DUI
30
770
800
Total
100
900
10
Accident
No Accident
Total
DUI
70
130
200
Non- DUI
30
770
800
Total
100
00
900
1000
000
1000
D=DUI
P(D) = .2
12
Part 2 Probability
Multiplicative Rule
Independence
P(A|B)=P(A)
P(B|A)=P(B)
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
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Example
14
Example
Accident
No Accident
Total
Accident
No Accident
Total
DUI
70
130
200
US Car
60
540
600
Non- DUI
30
770
800
Import Car
40
360
400
Total
100
00
900
1000
000
Total
100
00
900
1000
000
A: Accident
P(A) = .10
D:DUI Driver
A: Accident
P(A) = .10
U:US Car
P(A|U) = .10 (60/600)
Random Sample
17
16
18
Part 2 Probability
Circuit Problem
.9
.1
A
.1
.9
.8
.8
.81
.2
.2
.8
.018
.064
.016
C
.072
.2
.02
19
20
Example
Example
.1
.9
A
.95
.05
.15
B
.095
.005
.85
.135
.765
A=Prisoner is HIV+
B=Test is Positive for HIV
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Example
HIV+
A
HIVA
Total
Test+
B
.095
.135
.230
TestB
.005
.765
.770
Total
.100
.900
1.000
P( A | B ) =
.095
.413
.230
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