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R
EE E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
30 NOV 04 DEC 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's weekly flows report, investors yanked
$1 billion from precious metals funds in the week to Nov. 25, the chunkiest outflow in
17 weeks. Data this week were based on four days of fund flows as opposed to the
normal five due to Thanksgiving holiday, the bank said. Precious metal funds typically
focus investments in companies that mine, explore or deal in gold and other metals
such as silver and platinum, the prices of which have been under the cosh recently.
Gold is currently trading at $1,072 an ounce, near its lowest level since February
2010. Platinum, meanwhile, is close to a seven-year trough at $852 an ounce.
Investment-grade bond funds saw outflows of $2.6 billion, the heftiest in eight
weeks, while investors piled into money market funds, as shown by $12 billion of
inflows. Emerging markets continued to be unloved as well. More money has fled
emerging markets equity funds than has entered for the past four weeks, while bond
funds have seen outflows in 17 of the past 18 weeks, the data showed. Equities in
general had net inflows, although there was divergence between exchange traded
funds, which had inflows of $7.3 billion, and actively-managed mutual funds, which
suffered $6.8 billion of outflows.
Crude oil futures fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar index hit a fresh eight-month high,
adding more pressure to an already oversupplied, bearish market. Strength in the
greenback, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, joined
with negative sentiment that kicked off earlier in the day due to disappointing
Chinese economic data. "There is dollar strength and a sell off across all
commodities,". Brent crude fell by 30 cents to $45.16 per barrel by 1520 GMT, after
settling down 71 cents at $45.46 in the previous session. It traded as low as $44.80
earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, the U.S. crude
benchmark, fell by 95 cents to $42.09 per barrel. Trading in U.S. futures was muted
due to holidays in the country. Both crude contracts were on track for small weekly
gains, but were down by roughly 9 percent since the start of November. On Friday,
officials with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
questioned an upbeat forecast from its researchers, with some skeptical there will be
a quick easing of the supply glut in 2016. Chinese shares slumped 5 percent, hit by
regulatory worries and declining industrial sector profits.
The future price of copper and the growth of companies that produce it could hinge
on a single precious resource: water. Mining the important industrial metal requires
huge volumes of water to control dust and separate copper from the earth. But a
seven-year drought enveloping Chile, the worlds largest producer, is forcing big
mining companies to curb output and pitting them against small communities like this
one high in the Andes. Water-related production problems are one reason some
analysts say copper prices arent likely to lose much more ground after falling nearly
20% so far this year. Over the long term, they say, the price of copper could move
higher as global production fails to keep pace with rising demand. U.K. has said water
shortages could curb as much as 18,000 tons in annual production starting this year at
its Los Bronces mine. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is scrambling to secure water supplies
for its Morenci copper mine in Arizonaa state that accounts for a third of the And
here in Caimanes, a decadelong legal fight over water has unfolded between local
farmers and Chilean mining company Antofagasta PLC. The farmers say an
Antofagasta tailings dam, used to create a reservoir for mine waste, has created a
water shortage. Antofagasta says the drought is to blame. We will have to stop
operating if the tailings dam cant operate,

As gold,
platinum prices
fall, investors flee
precious metal
funds.

Oil prices slide on

strong dollar and
supply excess.

Water Troubles in
Tiny Chilean Town
Threaten Global
Copper Supply.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Nov 30 8:15pm

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Chicago PMI

56.2

8:30pm

Pending Home Sales m/m

-2.3%

Dec 01 8:15pm

Final Manufacturing PMI

52.6

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing PMI

50.1

Construction Spending m/m

0.6%

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing Prices

39.0

All Day

Total Vehicle Sales

18.2M

11:15pm

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Dec 02 6:30am

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

6:40pm

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

6:45pm

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

7:00pm

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

8:30pm

7:00pm

182K

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

1.6%

7:00pm

Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.4%

9:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

1.0M

10:55pm

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Dec 03 12:30am

Beige Book

2:10am

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

6:00pm

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

-1.3%

Unemployment Claims

260K

8:15pm

Final Services PMI

56.5

8:30pm

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

8:30pm

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

59.1

8:30pm

Factory Orders m/m

-1.0%

9:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

9B

11:40pm

FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

Dec 04 All Day

OPEC Meetings

7:00pm

7:00pm

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.4%

Non-Farm Employment Change

271K

7:00pm

Trade Balance

-40.8B

7:00pm

Unemployment Rate

5.0%

7:00pm

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX
GOLD
showed
sideways
movement and consolidated in
between of 23.6% retracement level
and its recent lows i.e. 25170. Now, if it
is able to sustain below 25100 then
next major support level is seen
around 24650. On higher side if it
maintains above 25650 then only
correction seen in it towards the
resistance level of 26100.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 25100 for the target of 24650,
with stop loss of 25700.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

25170

24925

24650

25535

25810

26090

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed
sideways to bullish movement and
correct upto its important resistance
level i.e. 34500 but not able to
maintain above it. Now, on lower side
if it sustain below 33150 then next
support level is seen in the range of
32000-31500. On higher side if some
correction happens then 34600 will act
as important resistance level.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 33150 for
the targets of 32000-31500, with stop
loss of 34700.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

33150

32000

31000

34325

34910

35600

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed sideways
movement and consolidated around its
near term lows and showed some
correction on higher side but not able
to closed above its important
resistance level of 2910. Now, if it
sustain below 2750 then next
important support level is seen around
2600. On the other hand maintaing
above 2910, again pull it towards the
resistance level of 3100.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2750 for the target of 2600,
with stop loss of 2910.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2750

2650

2550

2900

3000

3105

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed
correction on higher side and retrace
upto 23.6% retracement level i.e.
311.10
and
closed
near
to
psychological support level i.e. 300.
Now, if it sustain below 300 on lower
side then next important support level
is seen around 280. On the other hand
if some correction happens then next
resistance level will seen around 315.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 299, with stop loss of 318 for the
target of 280.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

293.50

284

275

311.05

318.50

326.10

DISCLAIMER

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