THEWORLDTODAY.

ORG APRIL 2010

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SRI LANKA
Charu Lata Hogg, ASSOCIATE FELLOW, ASIA PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE

Concentrating
Power
Eleven months after the Sri Lankan
army crushed the Tamil Tiger rebels in
controversial circumstances, the country
is about to choose a new parliament, the
second election this year. But far from
ushering-in a reconciliation process,
there is talk of authoritarianism,
o N APRIL 8, SRI LANKA WILL HOLD ITS SECOND,
mammoth electoral exercise in just four
months – a parliamentary poll in which
newly re-elected President Mahinda
Rajapakse aims for a two-thirds
parliamentary majority which would give
him a free hand to change the constitution. He won the
presidential election in January by a margin of eighteen
percent over former army commander General Sarath
Fonseka, and the opposition is yet to recover from the defeat.
Despite the jubilation over his victory, this is not
breaches of international law and abuse a fresh start for a country recovering from three
decades of conflict with the Tamil Tigers. The same
of state power. hard-line policies, corruption and nepotism could

S R I L A N K A N P R E S I D E N T M A H I N DA RA J A PA K S E A N D H I S M I L I TA R Y C H I E F S , I N C L U D I N G G E N E RA L S A RAT H FO N S E K A , FA R L E F T,
AT I N D E P E N D E N C E DAY C E L E B RAT I O N S L A ST Y E A R . I S H A RA KO D I K A RA / I R I N
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continue, further weakening an already battered democracy.

The Tigers’ defeat will remain hollow unless the
President establishes a more inclusive and democratic state
which shows genuine commitment to the rule of law and
human rights. So far, his track record is questionable.

TA M I L T R O U B L E S
The presidential poll in January did not mark a
departure from intimidation and violence. History
repeated itself as Rajapakse won his second presidential
election, in part because the minority Tamil community
could not exercise its franchise without fear. In
November 2005, the Tigers’ iron-fist forcibly prevented
Tamils from voting, an exercise that catapulted Rajapakse
into power by a narrow margin.
Months after the Tigers’ defeat, a large number of
Tamils in northeast Sri Lanka could not vote in January
because they were coerced to abstain, unable to register, or
had no transport to reach polling stations. Elsewhere, state
power was brazenly abused and Rajapakse’s main
challenger, Fonseka, was undermined and compared to
the Ugandan dictator Idi Amin. Defeated, he was put
under arrest, court martialed and his supporters have
been threatened and attacked.
For many Tamils, a pressing concern is the resettlement
of some seventy thousand refugees displaced in the final
stages of the war who have returned in recent months
to the Tamil heartland of Jaffna. Many are still unable to
reclaim their houses because they lie inside military buffer
zones. There is little work and only a trickle of cash to
lubricate the local economy.
Humanitarian workers say that livelihood schemes, a
staple of post-disaster planning, are missing in the north
because authorities want to keep out prying eyes, amid
international controversy over the camps for the displaced
and the fate of returnees. Tamil politicians have raised fears
that Tamil areas are being resettled with families from the
majority Sinhalese community.
Equally troubling for Tamils is the lack of an independent
investigation into alleged war crimes during the last phases
of the conflict. A handful of western countries, and Tamil
diaspora groups, are pressing for some kind of
accountability for thousands of civilian deaths. Sri Lanka is
adamant its soldiers did not violate international law.
The European Union has made clear that a credible
process to address alleged violations of international
humanitarian law by both sides during the conflict could
also contribute to the reconciliation process. It has
decided to suspend its $136 million annual trade
preferences for Sri Lankan goods in August.
The United States State Department report on the
conflict and the statement by Philip Alston, the UN
Special Rapporteur for Extrajudicial, Summary or
Arbitrary Executions, underline the need for a credible and
independent investigation.
However, Sri Lanka’s willingness to turn to China,

| INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

 THEWORLDTODAY.ORG APRIL 2010
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Russia, and Iran appears to LETTER

have prompted the west to take Sir, I was surprised to read in Fadi Hakura’s
a softer line. These three article on Turkey: Moving East or West? in the
countries supplied the bulk of March edition, that the proportion of Turks who
government weaponry during the consider European Union membership a ‘good
last phase of fighting with the
thing’ has been increasing. Hakura’s source is
Tigers. Russia is a firm supporter
last year’s Transatlantic Survey by the German
at the UN Security Council,
Marshall Fund, but that survey delivers the
preventing international action.
India remains a steadfast ally, opposite message. It shows the proportion of
and its influence is likely to help Turks supporting EU membership has
Colombo avoid a serious rift with plummeted from 73 percent in 2004 to 48
western countries. There has percent last year. The author regards it as ‘most
been little pressure from India, revealing of all’ that ‘almost half of respondents
Japan, western governments and still consider EU membership a good thing.’ He entirely misses the point. The most
multilateral organisations for the revealing fact is that Turkish support for EU membership has collapsed from almost
political empowerment of Tamils or three quarters to less than half in recent years.
to press Colombo to address the Another source, closer to home, Eurobarometer - part of the EU Commission - broadly
causes behind the rise of the Tigers agrees but finds Turkish support was even less: 45 percent last year.
and other militant Tamil groups.
The evident mismatch between Turkish government, EU aspirations and public opinion
Meanwhile, the government
reinforces the need for a nationwide referendum on prospective EU entry to ensure
continues to exhibit authoritarian
that the Union’s guiding principle of democratic accountability is observed and the
tendencies. In February, it amended
an existing act dealing with Turkish people is not dragged into the EU against its will, with predictable
local and foreign non- consequences. Britain, Norway and other European democracies have held such
governmental organisations in referenda; the Turks have the same democratic right. David Rudnick, London
order to probe their activities and
take action against them.
Since the presidential election, the authorities have Premadasa regimes, and is alleged to be implicated in the
detained and questioned several journalists, blocked news destruction of democracy and atrocities against Tamils in
websites, and expelled a foreign reporter. At least one 1983 and Sinhalese in the late 1980s. The Marxist Janatha
journalist has been assaulted and several threatened. Vimukthi Perumuna (JVP) has to move beyond its past
The International Monetary Fund’s decision to totalitarianism and anti-Tamil bias; while the Tamil National
delay the third tranche of a $2.6 billion loan after the Alliance needs to strengthen its democratic credentials if it is
government missed its 2009 deficit reduction targets, is to be part of a genuine democracy movement.
a sign of economic worries. It was predicted that the opposition alliance
would disintegrate after the presidential election and
that in itself would not be such a disaster if it could work
C O N C E N T RAT I N G P OW E R together to defend democracy, to oppose the renewal
The concentration of power in the hands of the president’s of the Emergency and try to ensure that the parliamentary
family continues. As well as being president, Rajapakse heads elections are free and fair.
four ministries. Gotabaya, a younger brother, is Defence With its democratic credentials already in question, Sri
Secretary. Basil, another younger brother, is a member of Lanka does not need charges of holding a rigged election.
parliament and presidential advisor. Chamal, the oldest Constitutional and institutional reform are required to build a
brother, heads two ministries. With dozens more relatives in more inclusive and just democracy.
prominent positions, the Rajapakses control an estimated So far Rajapakse has failed to offer a credible proposal for
seventy percent of the national budget. Now, the president’s political reform that would address the marginalisation of
eldest son, Namal is being talked of as a potential successor to Tamils and other minorities. The All Party Representative
his father, whose second and final term will end in 2016. Committee set up to design a package of political devolution
In all probability, Rajapakse’s party will win the through constitutional reform came to an end and the
parliamentary elections, not least because the opposition president says that ‘Tamils have no political demands and
remains fractured and demoralised and political protests are only want their basic needs addressed.’
now prohibited until voting is over. Tamils in Sri Lanka have little appetite for a return to
The motley opposition alliance lacks legitimacy and its armed struggle. But should the Sri Lankan state continue to
leadership has a dubious track record. Ranil fail to respond to their collective aspirations, some may
Wickremasinghe, the leader of the United National Party was eventually seek a solution through violence and could
part of the government during the JR Jayawardene and find willing partners in the diaspora.

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