Economic Insights

Economics | October 9 2015

Week Ahead
Current

Last Week

Last month

Last year

October 8

October 1

September 8

October 8 2014

Cash Rate (%)

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.50

90 day bills (%)

2.18

2.17

2.17

2.70

10 year bonds (%)

2.64

2.61

2.68

3.31

AUD/USD

0.7173

0.7055

0.6953

0.8769

Gold ( US$/ounce)

1144.30

1113.70

1121.00

1225.30

Iron Ore ( US$/tonne)

54.80

54.50

56.40

79.50

Oil ( US$/barrel)

49.38

44.74

45.94

85.77

All Ordinaries

5241.4

5144.1

5133.5

5241.6

Australia
Date

Event

Consensus

Last release

Monday October 12

Lending finance (August)

Monday October 12

Credit & debit card lending (August)

0.1%
~

Tuesday October 13

Speech by Deputy Governor Philip Lowe

Tuesday October 13

NAB Business survey (September)

Wednesday October 14

Consumer confidence (October)

93.9

Wednesday October 14

Building activity (June quarter)

5%

Thursday October 15

Employment report (September)

5,000 / 6.2%

5,000 / 6.2%

Thursday October 15

New car sales (September)

-1.6%

Friday October 16

Financial Stability Review

Consensus

Last release

$48.2bn

$60.2bn

1.8%

2%

-0.2% / -0.8%

0.0% / -0.8%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2% / -0.1%

-0.1% / 0.2%

-0.2%

-0.4%

International
Date

Event

Tuesday October 13

China Trade balance (September)

Wednesday October 14

China inflation (September)

Wednesday October 14

US Producer prices (September) (MoM/YoY)

Wednesday October 14

US Retail sales (September)

Thursday October 15

US Consumer prices (September) (MoM/YoY)

Friday October 16

US Industrial production (September)

A full schedule of domestic economic data awaits, with key indicators scheduled on each day in the coming week.
Overseas, there are top shelf indicators for release in both China and the US over the week.

On Tuesday National Australia Bank releases the September business survey. As the Reserve Bank Governor is
fond of stressing, business conditions and confidence levels are actually close to normal in contrast to the
media-driven perception that sentiment and activity are soft.

On Thursday the ABS releases the monthly job figures. Despite seemingly soft economic growth rates, the job
market has been quite resilient. We expect that employment may have lifted by just 5,000 in September after
strong gains in previous months while the jobless rate may have held steady at 6.2 per cent. Also on Thursday the
ABS will confirm that car sales were at record highs in September. And on Friday, the Reserve Bank will hand
down the bi-annual Financial Stability Review with most interest in comments on the housing sector

Savanth Sebastian, Economist (Author)

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