Muhammad Ali Awan

Q: Do we have more reason to be Pessimistic or Optimist in the present

world?
Pessimism has its origin in Thomas Malthuss view. He wrote an essay on the
Principles of Population (1798). In which he forecasted that the land is in fixed
quantity sooner or later a point would be reached whereby scarcity would develop.
Which will lead to a diminishing labour, starvation and a pressure on resources so war
would be unleash in order to reduce the population. Malthus presents his deductive
approach based on two claims, that food is necessary to existence and passion
between sexes is constant.
Another pessimistic view comes from Paul R. Ehrlich who wrote that clash to feed all of
humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in
nastiness of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can
prevent a considerable increase in the world death rate. In his book The Population
Bomb Ehrlichs made a number of specific predictions that did not come true, for which
they have received criticism. They have acknowledged that some predictions were
incorrect. However, they maintain that their general argument remains together, that
their predictions were purely descriptive, that their and others warnings caused
anticipatory action, or that many of their predictions may yet come true In his book
The Population Bomb's' in the opening lines Ehrlich state that nothing can prevent
famines in which hundreds of millions of people will die during the 1970s and that
there would be a substantial increase in the world death rate. Although many lives
could be saved through dramatic action, it was already too late to prevent a
substantial increase in the global death rate. However, in reality the global death rate
has continued to decline substantially since then, from 196574 to 19851990. Ehrlich
also writes I don't see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people
by 1980. This view was widely held at the time, as another statement of his, later in
the book I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India
will be self-sufficient in food by 1971. In the book's 1971 edition, the final prediction
was removed, as the food situation in India suddenly improved. As of 2010, India had
almost 1.2 billion people, having nearly tripled its population from around 400 million
in 1960. India's Total Fertility Rate in 2008 was calculated to be 2.6. While the absolute
numbers of malnourished children in India is high, the rates of malnutrition and
poverty in India have declined from approximately 90% at the time of India's
independence, to less than 40% today. Ehrlich's prediction about scarcity was found to
be false. Still other critics have disapproved of the Ehrlichs' supposed failure to
acknowledge mistakes, evasiveness, and refusal to alter their arguments in the face of
opposing evidence.

Julian Simon an optimist said that humans have the ability to be Creative and
Innovative. So in the end humans will find a way to feed themselves. Julian Simon
wrote a book in 1987 called The Ultimate Resource is a criticism of what was then the
straight insight on population growth, raw-material scarcity and resource
consumption. Simon argues that our notions of increasing resource-scarcity ignore the
long-term declines in wage-adjusted raw material prices. Viewed economically, he
argues, increasing wealth and technology make more resources available, although
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supplies may be limited physically they may be viewed as economically indefinite as

old resources are recycled and new alternatives are assumed to be developed by the
market. Simon challenged the notion of an impending Malthusian catastrophe that an
increase in population has negative economic consequences, that population is a
drain on natural resources and that we stand at risk of running out of resources
through over-consumption. Simon argues that population is the solution to resource
scarcities and environmental problems, since people and markets innovate.
Famously Julian Simon held a bet with Paul Ehrlich that any $ 1000 shopping basket of
five metals in 1990 would be cheaper than in 1980 with the difference paid to the
winner in 1990 Paul Ehrlich paid $ 579. A more complicated scenario depended on a
distinction between proven and conditional reserves, because as price rise so there
are incentives to increase exploration and possibly locate more proven reserves thus
bringing prices down once more. The counter suggestion is that as the most
economically extracted resources are likely to be found first then additional reserves
will be more expensive than proven reserves. More still is whether there is a substitute
for the material as in the case of gas and coal, so that growing scarcity and or rising
prices for coal may prompt conversion to gas. Finally it will also depend on politics the
dramatic increase in oil prices in early 1970s was a consequence of OPEC flexing its
muscle, partly in an effort to break the developed world demand side control of output
and prices.
Other writers like Jacquie Burgess and Sally Eden have approached the environmental
problem from the stand point of social construction the investment of meaning into
particular phenomena, creating specific ways in which we think about and address
issues. Such first awareness was first raised by Rachel Carson a Biologist and
Advocate.
Carsons work especially the landmark Silent Spring (1962) highlighted the growing
degradation of the environment, the loss of species, habitats and biodiversity,
culminating in a loss of quality of life. Carson warned man could not reply on nature
being adapting to being tempered with and that relatively discreet interventions might
have longer term and wider consequences. Carson had become concerned about the
use of synthetic pesticides, many of which had been developed through the military
funding of science since World War II. It was the USDA's 1957 fire ant annihilation
program; however that prompted Carson to devote her research, and her next book,
to pesticides and environmental poisons. The fire ant program involved aerial spraying
of DDT and other pesticides mixed with fuel oil, including the spraying of private land.
Landowners in Long Island filed a suit to have the spraying stopped, and many in
affected regions followed the case closely. Though the suit was lost, the Supreme
Court granted activists the right to gain sanctions against potential environmental
damage in the future. Rachael Carson argued that environment management
depended on peoples approach to and morals about nature. Rachael Carson is often
regarded as a forerunner of the Green Movement.
However the change to
Environment would take another two decades to fully emerge.

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We need to address all the people as a family in order to fully raise the awareness
between them that more population if environmentally friendly their effect can be less
disastrous. But same goes opposite for fewer Populations if the population is not
environmentally friendly and does not know how to properly use resources their
effects will cause more depletion in the environment. Statistics show that in
developing countries the population will increase by about 2.5 billion, the question is
that will this population will be able to feed itself? Here two problems intervene, First
is Choice and Wealth.
Between Malthus and Carson, we can see a shift from population as a primary concern
to the environment. However in the meantime, an influential group of scientists at
MIT, lead by Donella and Dennis Meadows compiled a report which offered a series of
doomsday forecasts based on population growth and an exponential rise in
consumption against a linear expansion of resources. Donella and Meadows pointed
towards more complicated aspects of the problem firstly towards on proven reserves
in 1970 divided by consumption levels to derive a Life index, the point at which
resources would run out at constant use. Over the Static life index, the report then
outlined an exponential life index, the point at which resources would run out
assuming usage was increasing exponentially and the total resource base was five
times proven reserves.
Secondly the report predicted that not only food would become a problem but also
industrial output would struggle by the early 21 st century. The response would be a
pushing of people to ever more dangerous environmental conditions and an increase
in disasters that were rarely natural.
Thirdly that controlling consumption is virtually impossible as every single human
being is different and therefore the choice is different as well, also we cannot
improvise food limit because everyone is different and because of that their food limit
cannot be determined. That is why there is no possible way to actually calculate or
measure choice. Because there is no concept of equality in this present time and
because of this the wealthy are getting wealthier and poor are becoming poorer.
However the problem is not food production the world is now producing food in
abundance. The actual problem is of food distribution across the world.
The people most in need of food over subsistence and unable to produce themselves
are also those with the least means to buy food. Thus, while the FAO World Food
Survey indicates that average food production has increased by at least 0.5 percent
faster than population growth, with the less-developed countries showing productivity
much higher than the world average, food production per head is 25 percent higher in
1961 and the real price of food has fallen by some 50 percent.
We are entering a new era of rising food prices and spreading hunger. Food supplies
are tightening everywhere and land is becoming the most sought-after commodity as
the world shifts from an age of food abundance to one of scarcity says Brown. We
have to act soon because the situation we are in is not temporary. These things will
happen all the time. Climate is in a state of flux and there is no normal anymore.
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However irrespective of these observations there is room for optimism with the
emergence of the concept of sustainable development. Sustainable development is
such development incentive to produce environmentally now and for future
generations. Most importantly, sustainability has fed into policy. In 1992 the United
Nations Environment Programme organised the Rio Summit to seek consensus on a
range of global and local measures. Rio was a remarkable achievement for providing
all together a point of focus on the environment. Rio motivated governments and
international agencies to address what could be done to tackle environment concerns
while maintaining or even improving welfare/quality of life.
A step forth was the Rio Summit in which 255 governments participated, with 144
sending their heads of state or government. The issues addressed included:
systematic scrutiny of patterns of production, particularly the production of toxic
components, such as lead in gasoline, or poisonous waste including radioactive
chemicals. Alternative sources of energy to replace the use of fossil fuels which are
linked to global climate change. New reliance on public transportation systems in
order to reduce vehicle emissions, congestion in cities and the health problems
caused by polluted air and smoke and the growing scarcity of water.
Another important step is the idea of the Ecological Footprint. Taking an old idea, how
much land do humans use to supply resources for consumption, Mathis Wackernagel
contributed the idea that in order to better measure the load imposed on the
environment we need to include the additional land required for the disposal of waste
and ecosystem recovery. The Footprint uses the biologically-productive land area as
the base unit of measurement, which allows the conversion of energy use into land
area. So, for example, energy use is converted into the area of forests required to
absorb the resultant CO2 emissions. The consequential indicator is easily adapted to
specific scales, for example, to measure the impact of a city on its immediate
neighborhood. The Footprint therefore, can be one means of measuring urban
sustainability. Consequently, Londons footprint is 293 times its geographical area, in
other words the ecological impact of London is larger than the area of the British Isles!
Wackernagels assessment using the Footprint is that in 1960 humans used about 70
per cent of the biosphere but that by 1999 humans were using an unsustainable 120
per cent. Most important, sustainability has fed into policy. The Brundtland report met
a growing demand for action to tackle environmental concern. In 1992 the United
Nations Environment Programme organized the Rio Summit to seek consensus on a
range of global and local measures. Rio was a remarkable achievement for providing
simultaneously a point of focus to the importance of the environment as having both
fundamental and welfare value.
An important achievement from the Rio Summit was an agreement on the Climate
Change Convention which in turn led to the Kyoto Protocol. Another agreement was to
"not carry out any activities on the lands of native peoples that would
cause environmental degradation or that would be culturally inappropriate".
The main aim of the Kyoto Protocol is to contain emissions of the main human-emitted
greenhouse gases, in ways that reflect core national differences in green house gases
emissions, wealth, and capacity to make the reductions. The agreement follows the
main principles agreed in the original 1992 UN Framework Convention.
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As we see because of Rio Summit and Kyoto Protocol the direct results are populations
are now more aware about the environment and scarcity of foods and natural
resources. And people in general are working towards making these problems go
away by changing their way of life, finding alterative source of energy and consuming
less so that our environment can stay healthy for now and for future generations.
In the new argument about environment and insufficiency of natural resources
pessimistic view is not encouraged by the idea that resources will run out. But that the
consequential pollution from their use will destroy fragile ecosystems and chemical
cycles. As Julian Simon suggested that Human Beings have the ability to be creative
and innovative because of this we are today still surviving as many pessimists
suggested that we will be living in poor conditions and have less food. But the results
speak differently because the world is now producing food in abundance and the
figure of malnourished people around the world is declining. Also because of
pessimistic writers populations around the world are now more concerned about
pollution and excessive usage of natural resources. For that reason humans were
keeping a close eye on environment and its depletion consequently Rio Summit and
Kyoto Protocol helped populations and governments to take necessary steps in order
to counter the problem also a considerable range of population is now altering their
way of life by switching to e.g. electric cars and solar powered electronics / houses to
help keep environment safe now and for future generations. However if the world
understands the environment and resource use from the viewpoint of utility
maximization, then it will limit depletion sooner rather than later.
Still it seems there is a long way before these issues and food scarcities, famines
would be eliminated due to complexities involved. The political concerns, the
nationalist agendas, the pressure of multinational and ever increasing consumerism,
processes such as outsourcing through which dirty industry is shifted to developing
countries which have the least ability to resist, all make a Sustainable Development
an agenda quite impossible to achieve. However an increase in the global awareness
and commitment to achieve this agenda combined with the free market economy
promoting innovation and emergence of newer and better technologies give quite a
room for Optimism.

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