Chapter 9: Population Growth

Population has a tendency to exponentially grow and go towards a

carrying capacity
Usually populations overshoot carrying capacity and then die off
and then go back up to reach the capacity
Many different types of growth: exponential growth, linear growth,
boom and bust growth, sigmoidal growth (exponential in the
beginning then start to reach carrying capacity)
o Others fluctuate around carrying capacity
- Theoretical framework that governs the dynamics of population
growth; helpful for understanding but does not actually reflect what is going
on in nature
a lot of times in a population model, you create a theoretical
framework and put it in the model and check nature and see if your
model is explaining what nature is doing
o if not, keep fixing model
o nature is not constant, systematic and random
Cheat sheet:
N(t) = individuals in a population at time t
Nx = number of ind. Alive in any age class
Ix = probability at birth surviving to a given age
Population growth
Open system, closed system
Birth and death
Immigration and emigration; in a closed system only thing that
matters is birth and death
ONLY ADDRESS CLOSED POPULATION
First example: Hydra in an aquarium
Some time (t) and look at initial individuals
o Initially 100, 40 new, 10 that are dying, and calculate what is
the population after a single day

o (100) + (40-10) = 130

o How do you calculate day 2? You have to create a RATE
Birth and Death rates
The actual number of birth and deaths depends on population size
Take initial birth and divide by population; 40/100 = 0.4
This is your birth rate
Death rate:
Take 10/100 = 0.1 = this is the death rate
If we assume birth and death rate are constant, they can be used to
predict the growth of a population over tine, regardless of
population size
N(t+1) = N(t) + b*N(t) d*N(t)
So day 2:
(130) + (0.4)(130) (0.1)(130) = 169
How do populations change form one stage to the next?
N(t+1) N(t) = (b d)N(t)
Usually populations change more rapidly from one step to the next
Between day 1 and day 0 was a difference of 30; day 2 and day 1
was a difference of 39; day 3 and day 2 is 50.7
Rate of change in population over time
Assumption: b and d are constant
Lump them together and say r = b d
So N/T = rN(t)
The growth rate of the population is the slope = exponential growth
rate

o slope is shallow in the beginning, steep later

r is the instantaneous per capita rate of growth using derivatives
N = N0e^rt
When r = 0, b = d
o Population size does not change
When r > 0, b > d
o Population size increases exponentially
When r <0, b < d
o Population size decreases exponentially
Exponentially growth is continuously accelerating or decelerating based
on the population size you start with
When does exponential growth happen?
Populations that usually live in favorably environments, are at low
population densities, can adapt well
Need to worry about when: invasive species (no natural predators)
Exponential Growth
How do you figure out r? how to find birth rate and death rate?
o Are they always going to be the same? How do you figure it
out for bacteria, insects, small vertebrates, large vertebrates?
Life Table
A life table is an age-specific account of mortality
Used to examine systematic patterns of mortality and survivorship
within populations
Life tables follow a cohort, from birth to death
o Animals are relatively short life span so easy to do

Survivorship
Ix = probability at birth of surviving to a given age
Right now: only worry about death, not birth
Always Nx/N0; proportion of the original number
Age-specific mortality dx
A whole number, difference between the number of indivduals alive
for the next age class
How many in the population die from one age to the next?
How many die? Dx = N0 N1
Use this to calculate another rate
Age-specific mortality rate qx
Qx = dx/nx
Rate of mortality = # of ind died/ # of ind alive
Limited to a particular age group
Always just compare to age right before it
At the end itll always be 1 since everyone is dying
Life table for insects
Life table makes sense for vertebrates to use age
Sometimes cant use age; in insects, which only live to one year, it
wouldnt make sense to use age
o A life table for insects? Use life cycles/different stages of life
o Gypsy moth: broken down by eggs, instars, prepupae, pupae,
and then adults
Watch podcast 10-10:06

Mortality Age
Mortality with trying to be born
Once youre born, mortality goes down until about the age of 13
From 13-20, mortality increases and is steadily increasing to end of
life
Survivorship curves
More steep more likely to die
More flat more likely to survive
How is this useful? Compare males to females; see that females live
longer in squrriels and survivorship curve is a little less steep
Three types:
Type 1 (strongly convex) mortality likely late life (humans)
Type 2 ( straight) mortality constant throughout life (plants)
Type 3 (concave) mortality likely early life (oysters)
Birth Rate is Age-Specific
Birth rates = births per individual x 1000/time
Can be improved by only considering females (Theyre the ones that
can have the offspring); female age
In sexually dimorphic species, population is only a function of
females in the population
Determining the birth rate for females by age class (age-specific
birth rate)
Population increase is a function of the number of females in the
population
Bx = mean number of females born to each female in an age group
Gross reproductive rate = sum across all age classes of how
many females they will have in their life time
Only count females that will replace and keep reproducing

Fecundity Table
Shows fertility
Survivorship and multiply by number of babies
o Probability of making it and if she makes it, how many
number of babies will she have
o 1 year old squirrel = 0.3(2) = 0.6
Net reproductive rate = the average number of females that are
produced by a newborn female during her lifetime
R0 = SUM(Ixbx) across all age classes
If R0 = 1; population is stable
If R0 > 1 = population is growing
If R0 < 1 = population is decreasing
In the gray squirrel example: gross reproductive rate = 10; net
reproductive rate = 1.4
Can use this information to project into the future; were not
assuming everyone is the same in the population and not everyone
ahs the same likelihood of reproducing at a certain age
o Or surviving to that age
A population projection table uses Sx
Qx = proportion of individuals that die before reaching the next age
class hence
o Sx = 1 qx
Probability that will survive to the next age class
Use this to calculate R0
Multiple number of individuals by survivorship of getting to the next
age, then of those surviving multiple probability of having offspring
and how many
o Calculate total offspring = add to survivors = new population
#
Stable Age Distribution

 what percentage of that population does it account for

divide the number in each age class by the total population size for
that year N(t)
the proportion of each group remains the same year after year even
if the population is increasing = finite multiplication rate
(lambda)
N(t+1)/N(t)
If lambda > 0 = increasing at same rate
If lambda = 0 = stable
If lambda < 0 = decreasing
The general equation to predict for any year in the future:
N(t) = N(0)^t
As long as birth rates arent changing, everything is based on initial
conditions
If what you calculated is not exact in population prediction table; its
because stable age distribution doesnt become stable until a certain age
Geometric Growth Rate
Finite/discrete rate; age 1 to age 2, age 2 to age 3
Exponential = continuous
Relate lambda to r; set equations equal to each other
^t = e^rt
= e^r
ln = r
r = for continuous; is for discrete
Estimate r from does not assume that all individuals in the
population are identical
Variety of factors lead to Extinction
Extinction is possible if the resource base does not recover in time
for survivors to reproduce

Stochastic processes can also influence population dynamics

In reality, birth rates and death rates are not constant!
Demographic Stochasticity variation in birth rates and death rates
occurring in populations from year to year
the inevitable variability ~ GENETIC DRIFT
Environmental stochasticitiy high temperatures, no rain, flooding, big
natural disasters
Populations that are declining in size can eventually become extinct
Low genetic variability
Largest amount of extinction/critically endangered species in the
tropics due to temperature changes and deforestation
Species that migrate are more susceptible to extinction
Leading causes of population declines and extinctions: cutting
forests, draining wetlands, creating dams and reservoirs