Dan Hodges

Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed
numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and
without reservation. He is on Twitter at@dpjhodges.

Ed Miliband is toast. Only Nigel Farage can stop

David Cameron now
By Dan Hodges Politics Last updated: October 1st, 2014
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That should be it. Anyone objectively assessing where British politics stands after David
Camerons speech to the Conservative Party conference could only reach one logical
conclusion. It is him, rather than Ed Miliband, who will be Britains Prime Minister after May
next year.
Talking to MPs and advisers in the wake of the Labour leaders speech last week, the most
optimistic line I could get from any of them was the assessment: Yes, its been a disaster.
But the impact of party conferences is overestimated. Theyd better pray long and hard that
is indeed the case. Because Im struggling to recall a conference season or two leaders'
speeches that have so starkly drawn the dividing line between the two men, and parties,
who seek to lead their country.
In what was easily the most political address of his premiership, David Cameron tore the
Labour Party to pieces. Its senior leadership were simply eviscerated. Ed Miliband: Ed
people forget their car keys, school kids sometimes forget their homework. But if you want to
be Prime Minister of this country, you cannot forget the biggest challenge we face. Ed Balls:

A few weeks ago, Ed Balls said that in 13 years of government, Labour had made 'some
mistakes'. 'Some mistakes'? Excuse me? Tristram Hunt: Tristram Hunt and I might both
have been educated at some of the best schools in our country. But heres the difference.
You, Tristram like the rest of the Labour Party want to restrict those advantages. I want to
spread them to every child in Britain.
Labours strategy had been to try to bridge the chasm between the two parties on economic
credibility by arguing that the macroeconomy could not be divorced from the day-to-day
costs being born by ordinary families. Cameron turned that strategy on its head. You can
only deliver for ordinary people, he said, if you get the management of the macroeconomy
right.
He then proceeded to drive a coach and horses through Labours cost of living narrative, by
unveiling not one but two dramatic tax cuts. The bottom rate income tax threshold would be
raised to 12,500, he announced, while the threshold on the 40p rate would be raised to
50,000.
A strong element of intellectual not to mention economic dishonesty underpins this offer.
Despite the constant mantra of tough choices, its nothing more than a good old fashioned
pre-election bribe, one that a country staring at a 100 billion deficit mountain can ill afford.
But it will work, for the simple reason that over the past four years the Tories have earned the
right to be trusted on the economy, and Labour have not.
With every fresh passage he pumped another bullet into the warm corpse of Ed Milibands
New Politics. Other parties preach to you about a Brave New World. We understand you
have to start with the real world and make it better."
And then, in the most powerful section of his speech, he set out to demonstrate that unlike
his opponents he was not prepared to accept any political no-go areas. I am someone
who has relied on the NHS whose family knows more than most how important that is.
Who knows what its like to go to hospital night after night with a child in your arms, knowing
that when you get there you will have people who will care for that child and love that child
like their own. How dare [Labour] suggest I would ever put that at risk for other peoples
children? How dare they frighten those who are relying on the NHS right now?
Tonight on your news bulletins, youll see Samantha Cameron, moved to tears by that
passage. And it will remind the voters not that they really need any reminding that David

Cameron does not need to go wandering about on Hampstead Heath to connect with
ordinary people.
So that should be it. There will be no more relaunches for Ed Miliband or his party. There is
no more time. Today was the day that David Cameron finished Labour as an electoral threat.
The choice facing voters at the next election will be as glaring as it was when Margaret
Thatcher and Michael Foot were last on the ballot paper in 1983.
Or that would be it, if Labour were the only political threat confronting David Cameron. But
theyre not. Rumours are currently circulating of a fresh Ukip defection, to be unveiled at
5pm. It could turn out to be a feint. But even if it is, the threat of further defections will remain.
Yesterday, I wrote that the time had come for David Cameron to tackle Ukip directly. In the
end, he did tackle them, but only obliquely. If you vote Ukip thats really a vote for Labour,
he said, before adding Heres a thought. On 7 May you could go to bed with Nigel Farage,
and wake up with Ed Miliband."
It was a nice line, and it underpins his central message: Vote Farage, Get Miiband. But will
it be enough?
David Cameron has drawn a clear dividing line between himself and Ed Miliband. What he
hasnt done is draw a clear dividing line between himself and those malcontents in his party
who would be only too happy to get into bed with Nigel Farage, even if it means seeing Ed
Miliband taking up residence in the master bedroom of Downing Street.
Perhaps the strength of his speech will give them pause for thought. The Tories are leaving
Birmingham emboldened, confident that the election really is there to be won. Maybe that will
be sufficient to keep David Cameron's backbenches pacified, if not unified.
But maybe it wont. The Prime Minister has had conference triumphs before. And when the
applause has faded, treacherous figures have again and again been seen flitting through the
Westminster shadows.
Last week, Ed Milibands supporters were telling anyone who would listen that party
conference speeches dont really matter. After the speech David Cameron just delivered,
they will be praying long and hard that they're right. The Prime Minister and his supporters
must pray with equal fervour they are wrong.