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Introduction
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the world largest coral reef system spanning up the Queensland coast; it
is considered to be of great cultural and economic significance contributing an estimated 6 billion dollars
per annum to the Australian economy through tourism alone (Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, 2012),
approximately $974 million is generated through a combination of commercial and recreational fishing
(Marshall and Johnson, 2007) and also has potential uses in biomedical fields (Cart, 1996) as well as
construction materials and coastal protection (Moberg and Folke, 1999).
With the recent period of industrialization that many countries around the world the climate paradigm
that was relatively stable for thousands of years is rapidly shifting due to anthropogenic influences. The
scope of this report will be focused on describing the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2) and critiquing potential management options aimed to mitigate these effects.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates CO2 concentrations to peak at 421
parts per million (PPM) by the year 2100 in its Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (best
case) projection or 1313ppm for its RCP 8.5 (worst case) projection (Alexander et al., 2013).
A consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is both acidification of the ocean and
increasing surface temperatures. Ocean acidification is caused by increasing CO2 concentrations in the
air being absorbed by the ocean (Sabine and Feely, 2007) combining with water to form carbonic acid
(H2CO3) which reduces carbonate ion concentrations decline (Doney et al., 2009).
The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations also cause an increase in surface temperatures with
projections ranging from 0.3C 1.7C for RCP 2.6 and 2.6C 4.8C for RCP 8.5 by the year 2100. These
surface temperature increases are projected to affect ocean temperatures initially down to one hundred
meters (Alexander et al., 2013).
Another effect of increased surface temperatures is that storms will become more intense leading to
heavier precipitation which can cause flooding and runoff from both agriculture and mining (Harper et
al., 2008).
In all of the RCP projections; global mean sea levels are projected to rise with some studies showing that
sea level rise in Australia since 1990 has risen faster than the global average (Church et al., 2013)
indicating that Australian shorelines will be particularly vulnerable. The IPCC predictions for sea level rise
range from 0.26m 0.55m for RCP 2.6 to 0.45m 0.82m for RCP 8.5 (Alexander et al., 2013).

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Probable impacts of predicted climate change and sea level rise on the Great Barrier Reef
Ocean acidification
As more CO2 is released into the atmosphere through anthropogenic activities there is a greater uptake
of it into the oceans forming carbonic acid. This has an adverse direct effect on calcifying organisms
including coral and animals with shells such as shellfish and certain planktonic species. Increased
acidification requires greater energy expenditure in the calcification process used by scleractinian (hard
reef building) corals to alkalize captured parcels of seawater required produce their calcium carbonate
skeletons (Holcomb et al., 2014).
There are several physiological responses that corals could have to increased acidity one of which is that
coral growth is reduced leaving it vulnerable to being outcompeted by species of macroalgae (Holcomb
et al., 2014). It may also maintain a similar rate of growth by reducing skeletal density achieve that rate
of growth, this may leave it increasingly vulnerable to bio-erosion processes such as parrotfish grazing
and breakage due to storms (Guinotte and Fabry, 2008).
If the rate of calcification is less than the rate of erosion it will inevitably lead to a loss of structural
complexity on the reef which has implications for both the habitat quality for organisms and that reefs
ability to reduce wave energy reaching the coast causing increased sedimentation through damage to
the unprotected coastal areas (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007).

Extreme weather events

Since European settlement in Australia there have been increased sediment loads being flushed from
the rivers into the lagoon, inner and middle reef shelves of the Great Barrier Reef during periods of
heavy rainfall which can traced back land degradation due to land clearing and overstocking (McCulloch
et al., 2003). This can also flush through pesticides and herbicides which have been found in increased
concentrations in seagrass beds (Haynes et al., 2000) which are considered important nursery habitats
for many marine species (Nagelkerken et al., 2002, Nagelkerken et al., 2000)
It is expected that as the climate changes becoming warmer there will be an increase both in intensity
and frequency of extreme weather events (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012, Knutson and Tuleya, 2004).
This can place additional stress on both coral (Rogers, 1990) and seagrass systems (Short and WyllieEcheverria, 1996) due to increased turbidity.
Turbidity can also be worsened by increased levels of phosphorous and nitrogen concentrations typically
found in waters affected by agricultural runoff (Blevins et al., 2014) which is consumed by primary
producers (Costanzo et al., 2001) leading to a reduction in water quality. The increased population of
primary producers such as phytoplankton is one of the primary drivers behind crown of thorn
(Acanthaster planci) outbreaks as the larvae feeds on phytoplankton leading to increased larval
survivorship resulting in much larger crown of thorn populations (Brodie, 1992, Fabricius et al., 2010).

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Increased Sea Surface Temperature

As global surface temperatures increase (Alexander et al., 2013) an increase in sea surface temperature
(SST) has been identified as one of the primary drivers behind coral expelling their zooxanthellae
symbionts causing coral bleaching (Brown, 1997). While coral can recover from short periods of
bleaching longer bleaching events eventually cause coral mortality (Edwards et al., 2001) even if the
coral does recover after thermal stress events they usually show reduced fecundity and slower growth
(Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Adding to these problems increased thermal stress is a driver behind coral
disease outbreaks (Bruno et al., 2007).
Increased ocean temperatures may also facilitate the invasions of non-indigenous species by providing a
more favourable habitat for the invasive species whilst increasing stress on native species due to the
rapid change (Stachowicz et al., 2002).

Rising Sea levels

One of the ecosystem services provided by the Great Barrier Reef is that it reduces the amount of wave
energy reaching the shore thereby providing coastal protection and creating favourable conditions for
mangrove and seagrass habitats (Birkeland and Grosenbaugh, 1985). This ecosystem service is rendered
null if the rate of sea level rise outstrips the rate of coral growth; this is because the reef is unable to
absorb as much wave energy due to the increased depth allowing the waves to reach land with more
energy thereby increasing shore erosion as has been seen in the Seychelles (Sheppard et al., 2005).
If there is a rapid change in sea levels which some coral species cannot calcify fast enough to grow and
keep up with there lies an increased risk of coral mortality through what is known as coral drowning
(Grigg et al., 2002).

Interacting effects of multiple impacts

Individually there is the possibility the abovementioned effects may not cause serious degradation in the
reef although when combined there is potential for these factors to cause serious degradation such as
both temperature and increased CO2 concentration cause a greater reduction in calcification than either
effect alone (Reynaud et al., 2003).
Increased acidity has been shown to lower corals thermal bleaching threshold (Anthony et al., 2008)
thereby potentially making corals more susceptible to bleaching events.
With reduced coral reef coverage there is also the impact of tourism to consider particularly SCUBA
divers. Inexperienced of careless divers often swim too close to the sea floor leading to breakage or
scraping of coral due to fins, knees and hanging gauges (Barker and Roberts, 2004) of which corals are
more vulnerable to should they be more brittle due to lower skeletal density caused by environmental
stressors such as acidification. On a system that is as geographically vast as the GBR this may not appear
to be a problem however as SCUBA diving becomes a more popular sport and coral coverage reduces
due to the effects of a changing climate there will be more SCUBA divers at fewer sites.
3

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Interactions between slower acting multiple stressors such as ocean acidification and increasing thermal
stress can lower the resilience of the reef system leaving it vulnerable to rapid acting stressors such as
extreme weather events causing a benthic phase shift from its equilibrium state in this case a coral
dominated state to a macroalgae dominated state (Done, 1992, Hughes, 1994, Hughes et al., 2010)
which is a hard state to recover from as coral provides structural complexity giving habitat for
herbivorous fish to live where macroalgae dominated states do not thus removing the one of the
macroalgaes predators.

Management Options
Due to the complex nature of stopping anthropogenic climate change requiring cooperation between
nations and major changes to industry and therefore economies to reduce carbon emissions many of
the realistic management options available are mitigation measures rather than preventative and will
require an adaptive management style requiring planning, implementation, analysis and adjustment
Identifying and protecting refugia
The Great Barrier Reef being so geographically large has the advantage of having diverse environments
which may be resilient to external stressors such as climate change resulting in reefs where the quality is
much greater than the average due to physical factors such as proximity to upwelling zones, strong
currents or zones which are less affected by climate change. As these areas would be more pristine than
other more affected areas they will more than likely receive higher than normal demand for fishing and
recreational practices such as SCUBA diving (Marshall and Johnson, 2007).
These areas have the potential to fulfil a role in recovering other more affected areas and as such will
require more stringent management to protect them from more intensive anthropogenic use. Ways that
this could be achieved is through ensuring that these areas are zoned adequately (Marshall and
Johnson, 2007).
While zoning has been shown to be effective in areas around the, it has also been shown that it is more
effective if the zoning is implemented sooner rather than later (Selig and Bruno, 2010). There is still the
problem of identifying areas which are in good health to act as refuges; in a system as large as the Great
Barrier Reef this task poses logistical and financial challenges by itself. One possible cost effective
method would be using the data from citizen science organisations such as a reef check or coral watch
to monitor and distinguish potential refuges (Branchini et al., 2015).
No take zones however do need to be designed correctly to work by taking into account prevailing
currents which will affect larval dispersal, ensuring that there significant dispersal yet still connectivity
between zones (Almany et al., 2009). This will take significant research and planning to ensure that the
network of zones represents the broader system. There will need to be a balance struck between
various stakeholders such as fishermen both recreational and commercial, tourism operators and
environmentalists to ensure that there is community support behind any zones that will be
implemented.

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Increase water quality
Reduced water quality leading to an increase in turbidity has been linked to farming and agricultural
practices along many of the rivers that flow into the Great Barrier Reef thereby rendering the reefs
closest to the mouths of the rivers most vulnerable (Fabricius et al., 2005). The Burdekin river flowing
from the mainland can deliver up to 107 tonnes of suspended sediment into the ocean during large
runoff events (Belperio, 1983). Several options exist to reduce the amount of sediment one is by
reducing land clearing or by planting additional vegetation to act as vegetative filters thereby reducing
nitrogen and phosphorous from fertilization of fields as well as reducing the amount of pesticides and
herbicides that run into the river (Popov et al., 2006).
Studies have also suggested that using contour banks to channel rain water into dams on the farms can
result insignificant reductions to runoff thereby reducing the sediment loading in the river systems
(Freebairn et al., 1986). Reducing nitrogen and phosphorous loads in should also limit the ability for
phytoplankton to bloom thereby reducing the primary food source for crown of thorns starfish larvae
(Fabricius et al., 2010).

Preserving mangrove and seagrass systems

Both mangrove and seagrass meadows provide nursery habitats for many species of fish which are
necessary to increase the resilience of the coral reef system (Folke et al., 2004, Nystrm et al., 2000).
This also includes some species of herbivorous fish (Nagelkerken et al., 2000) which graze on macroalgae
thereby helping prevent phase shifts from a coral dominated state to a macroalgae dominated state.
Studies have shown that agricultural runoff particularly runoff high in herbicides have an adverse effect
on seagrass and mangrove systems (Schaffelke et al., 2005). Implementing management options as
described above may reduce the adverse effects.

Conclusion
As significantly cutting CO2 emissions is unrealistic it is inevitable that there will be adverse effects upon
The Great Barrier Reef, mangrove and seagrass habitats and the coastline running up Queensland
caused ocean acidification, increased storm intensity and frequency, rising sea level of which Australia is
considered to be more susceptible to due to its surrounding sea levels rising faster than the average
over recent decades. These issues can be solved by reducing CO2 however it is unlikely it will be in the
short term.
As preventative measures such as significantly cutting CO2 is unlikely in the short term the best
management options will be to try and mitigate the effects by reducing human impacts caused locally
such as agricultural runoff, overfishing, damage cause by tourism etc.
This can be done by implementing monitoring programs and identifying what areas are not as badly
affected by climate change and making moves to protect them through zoning and effective
enforcement of those zones. Since monitoring areas as geographically large as the Great Barrier Reef is a
logistically difficult and expensive task this report suggests using oceanographic and remote sensing
technology to identify areas of upwelling or stronger currents and utilizing trained citizen scientists to
monitor the most likely areas where there will be minimal adverse impacts from climate change.

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