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2010 Commercial Market Report
2010 Commercial Market Report
Kootenai County
Commercial Market
Review & Forecast
2010
Activity, Trends & Indicators
Welcome
1
Contents We are pleased to present our third annual Coldwell Banker Commercial Market
Report. Access to reliable information is a powerful tool, especially in an en-
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . 1
vironment of unprecedented change and challenge. The local, U.S., and global
E xecutive Sum mary &
economic conditions have not made it easy for anyone involved in the real estate
surve y method ology . . . . 2 industry. Hopefully, our real estate report will supply information that is useful in
the business decisions you may face each and every day.
Offi ce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Retail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Thank you to the many businesses and property owners who have been willing
to share critical information with our team. Your cooperation and assistance is
l an d &
new construction . . . . . . 5
appreciated and helps to make this report timely, accurate and useful. We would
also like to extend a special thanks to our corporate sponsors; they continue to
multi - family . . . . . . . . . . . 6 recognize the value this information brings to the general real estate and invest-
ment community in North Idaho. Those companies include Community First
industrial &
fle x-tech . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Bank, Auble, Jolicoeur & Gentry, Ramsden & Lyons, Riverbend Commerce
Park, Greenstone, R.R. Bradley & Associates, North Idaho Title, Range and
in come producing
investments . . . . . . . . . . . 8
the Spokane Journal of Business. Thanks also to the support staff at Coldwell
Banker Commercial. This is a huge project and we appreciate the countless hours
about kootenai count y . 9 invested on behalf of our customers and clients.
s p onsors & sources . . . 10
As we all work through the challenging times before us, we will continue to focus
on client specific solutions. Our goal is to ensure that the real estate needs of
each and every one of our customer’s assignments is optimally addressed. This
2010 market report and forecast may encourage you to re-evaluate your real estate
investment strategy. Our entire team of full time commercial professionals is
committed to delivering the best in real estate services and solutions for you. We
are prepared to help you uncover the opportunities that exist today, as well as to
Phone: (208) 765-4300 prepare you for the future. Let us know if we may help!
Toll Free: (800) 829-2555
Best regards,
2000 Northwest Blvd., Ste 200
Coeur d’Alene, ID 83814
Fax: (208) 765-9150
Gary Schneidmiller, Broker/Owner
www.cbcsr.com Coldwell Banker Commercial Schneidmiller Realty
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
2
Survey
Methodology
Executive Summary
This report provides an analysis of activity along with trends and indicators for
The latest survey expanded the
number of properties surveyed
in 2007 and 2008. Our survey
was once again made possible
commercial real estate in Kootenai County. through a partnership by Auble,
Jolicoeur & Gentry and Coldwell
We are beginning to see the pace slow in the decline of market fundamentals. Banker Commercial Schneidmiller
While there are encouraging signs of recovery, there are still many pervasive is- Realty. Following last year’s
sues that will affect commercial real estate in the coming years. Both job growth methodology, the survey focuses
and a healthier credit market will be required for a sustainable recovery in com- on the most populous places in
mercial real estate. Kootenai County, namely Coeur
d’Alene (45,110), Post Falls
Investors with cash should be ready to capitalize on buying opportunities created (26,500), Hayden (13,763) and
by distressed selling. Owners that have been holding their property with the hope Rathdrum (7,075). Our latest data
for improved terms on their loans will be forced to sell as cash flows continue to set identifies 1,898 commercial
drop due to falling rents thus affecting the property values. This buying envi- properties and over 15.4 million
ronment will ultimately build wealth for savvy investors. Tenants are also in an square feet of space across all
excellent position to find new space or renegotiate their existing leases and lock-in commercial property sectors.
long term low rates. Difficult times can consequently build the greatest wealth for
investors who are poised to act quickly. As we noted last year, challenges bring
with them opportunities. If you are a tenant looking for lease space or an investor
with cash, you will continue to have a significant advantage in the coming year.
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
Office
3
Re v ie w
In 2009, tenants had significant negotiating
leverage to obtain rent concessions, tenant
improvements and deferred rent. In somewhat of
a role reversal, tenants were requiring financial
statements from landlords. Tenants were prudent
to obtain non-disturbance agreements from lenders
to guarantee their leasehold interest in a property
KOOTE NA I COUNTY
in case of foreclosure.
NONFARM PAYROLL J OB S
50,000
Mountain West Bank and serves as an operations
40,000 center. Idaho State Police also completed a 40,000
square foot building in north Coeur d’Alene.
30,000
531,032
9.72%
For now, vacancy is still on the rise and will more
70,796
Rathdrum than likely set an all time high by the end of the
8.36%
year.
239,778 Hayden
Landlords have been offering extraordinary tenant
8.33%
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
Retail
4
Re v ie w
Nationally retailers have closed underperforming stores
in an effort to return to profitability. Our local market
has not experienced a large amount of national retailers
closing. The majority of the vacancies in our market
can be attributed to local merchants that could not meet
adequate cashflows to cover fixed overhead expenses.
New retail openings in the past year were slow; however,
in 2009 we saw the start of several major new projects
in North Idaho. Work began on two Super Walmarts and a ta x a b le s a les
Winco. All three projects are slated to open in 2010.
$1,034,826,443
$1,064,289,258
$1,128,137,116
$1,217,414,503
$1,182,778,925
$1,063,750,457
-1.3
The new Post Falls Walmart is located about a quarter mile
$935,720,163
$923,395,375
$994,007,517
east of Cabela’s on the north side of the Pointe at Post Falls $600 mil
2,154,097
12.35%
convenience store.
Rathdrum
356,229 12.24%
Forecast
The best stability in retail investments will be in grocery 935,757 Hayden
7.12%
anchored centers. Outlying strip centers built on the
urban fringe in expectations of future growth will take an % Vacant 5% 10%
extended time to fill. Tight credit and high levels of debt 7,726,531 Total SF Surveyed
will hinder a surge in consumer spending so do not expect
a quick recovery in retail.
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
5
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
Multi-Family
6
His t o r i ca l
A pa r t m e n t Vaca n c ies
Unemployment rose to 10.6 percent in the Coeur d’Alene metropolitan statistical $0.60
area by year end 2009; as a result, household creation slowed and apartment 4% 2.9% 3.8% 5.6%
vacancy was up in all unit types. The overall vacancy rate rose from 3.5 percent
$0.50
3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15
2000
and housing stock has continued to dilute the traditional tenant pool and has $0.70
negatively impacted rents. Moreover, extended turn-over periods together with $0.60
tenant concessions have also converged to squeeze the bottom line of apartment 4.8% 5.6% 5.2% 3.2%
operators. The rent pressure is especially noticeable in the newer apartment stock $0.50
3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15
as this segment generally commands higher rental rates. Conversely, the older
2001
$0.80
and more affordable stock has been impacted to a lesser degree. The highest $0.70
overall vacancy rate of 10.2 percent was reported in units built after 1995. Class
B & C apartments built between 1975 and 1984 performed better with an overall
$0.60
Multi-family sales volume reported in the Coeur d’Alene MLS remained fairly $0.70
static with a 5.2 percent decrease year over year. In the absence of one notably
large sale in Coeur d’Alene in 2009, MLS sales would have declined significantly. $0.60
Nearly 50 percent of the reported sales activity in the 2-4 unit category was
6.9% 9% 6.4% 6.5%
$0.50
$0.70
Forecast
The emphasis should now be on tenant retention, efficient operation and creating $0.60
value for your tenant base. As we move toward an economic recovery, multi- $0.50
5.2% 3.8% 3.2% 4.6%
family investors should pay close attention to the employment market. Job
3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15
2005
growth will quickly create an increase in demand and shore up rent declines in
$0.80
the apartment market. Echo boomers that have been forced to live with parents or $0.70
double up with roommates will quickly begin to rent when they find the income
to afford a monthly payment.
$0.60
Ko o te n a i C o u n t y A pa r t m e n t
M a r k e t s u rv e y $0.70
S e p te m b e r
L o t s P l at te d Studio 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bedroom Other All $0.60
2 0 0 9 1 Bath 2 Bath 2 Bath
4.2% 4.3% 5.1%
1.6%
$0.50
3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15
2007
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
Flex-Tech
I n d u s t r i a l Vaca n c ies
Ko o te n a i C o u n t y
Re v ie w
Post Falls continues to report the lowest industrial vacancy in
Kootenai County. Industrial vacancy in Coeur d’Alene rose from
Coeur d’Alene
1,334,859 10.28% 4.87 percent in 2008 to 10.28 percent in 2009. Hayden reported
a 9.63 percent vacancy rate; however, Hayden vacancy appears to
Total sq. ft.
Post Falls
1,991,162
3.24% be dropping due to recent leasing activity.
377,190
Rathdrum
7.11% Advanced Input Systems completed a 54,000 square foot
expansion developed by Parkwood Business Properties. In
1,125,982 Hayden August 2009, Western States CAT opened a new 55,765 SF
9.63%
industrial/retail building on Highway 95 in north Hayden.
0% 5% 10% 15%
% Vacant
Last year we reported that ALK Abello Source Materials Inc.
opened an 85,000 square foot flex-tech facility at Lochsa and
Clearwater Loop in the Riverbend Commerce Park. ALK Abello
M a n u fac t u r i n g recently expanded their existing facility less than a year after
e m p loy m e n t receiving the certificate of occupancy on their original building.
ko o te n a i C o u n t y Two new office/warehouse buildings were completed across the
freeway at EXPO Commerce Park. EXPO reported several
= Mfg. Jobs land sales to new users that will begin building in 2010.
5000
Forecast
The industrial market will begin to recover when consumer
# Employed
g d p p e r c e n tag e c h a n g e base d o n c h a i n e d 2 0 0 0 d o ll a r s
8
7
6
5
4
3
% Change
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-6
-7
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
Income
8
Review
Producing Investments
National and regional banks experienced a barrage of writedowns, loan
modifications and defaults. Many banks delayed working through distressed
assets until they built up their balance sheets. In the Fall of 2009, regulators
allowed banks to hold onto performing loans that were technically in default
due to declining values. At the dismay of many investors seeking properties to
purchase from banks, this decision dramatically changed the number of quality c oConsumer
n s u m e rPrice
pric Index
e index
properties returned to banks in the foreclosure process. In the short term,
extensions will be the preferred resolution for lenders with maturing loans on 1999 166.6
performing assets.
2000 172.2
Forecast
2001 177.1
Investment property sales volume was down over 70 percent from 2008 on a
national level. Expect to see an increase in 2010 over the artificially low 2009 2002 179.9
investment sales volume. The alarming pace of decline in commercial real estate
values seems to have stabilized and investors are now planning opportunistic buys. 2003 184
2004 188.9
While our market experiences downward pressure on property values, it provides
tremendous opportunity for buyers who have available capital to act. As property 2005 195.3
values move below replacement cost, we can expect a reappearance of investors
2006 201.6
in the market. Increased availability of credit, stability in the job market and a
resurgence of transactions to establish a more accurate baseline for property values 2007 207.342
will be required for a full recovery in the investment market.
2008 215.303
F E D f u n d s r at e d is c o u n t r at e 2009 214.573
8
7 Annual Average
6
5
Rate
4
3
2
1
0
10-Dec-02
9-Jan-03
29-Jan-03
18-Mar-03
6-May-03
25-Jun-03
12-Aug-03
16-Sep-03
28-Oct-03
9-Dec-03
28-Jan-04
16-Mar-04
4-May-04
30-Jun-04
10-Aug-04
21-Sep-04
10-Nov-04
14-Dec-04
2-Feb-05
22-Mar-05
3-May-05
30-Jun-05
9-Aug-05
20-Sep-05
1-Nov-05
13-Dec-05
31-Jan-06
28-Mar-06
10-May-06
29-Jun-06
8-Aug-06
20-Sep-06
25-Oct-06
12-Dec-06
31-Jan-07
21-Mar-07
9-May-07
28-Jun-07
7-Aug-07
17-Aug-07
18-Sep-07
31-Oct-07
11-Dec-07
22-Jan-08
30-Jan-08
16-Mar-08
18-Mar-08
30-Apr-08
8-Oct-08
29-Oct-08
16-Dec-08
19-Feb-10
wa ll s t r ee t j o u r n a l p r i m e r at e
10
8
Rate
2
3-Feb-00
22-Mar-00
17-May-00
4-Jan-01
1-Feb-01
21-Mar-01
19-Apr-01
16-May-01
28-Jun-01
22-Aug-01
18-Sep-01
3-Oct-01
7-Nov-01
12-Dec-01
7-Nov-02
27-Jun-03
1-Jul-04
11-Aug-04
22-Sep-04
10-Nov-04
14-Dec-04
2-Feb-05
22-Mar-05
3-May-05
30-Jun-05
9-Aug-05
20-Sep-05
1-Nov-05
13-Dec-05
31-Jan-06
28-Mar-06
10-May-06
29-Jun-06
18-Sep-07
31-Oct-07
11-Dec-07
22-Jan-08
30-Jan-08
18-Mar-08
30-Apr-08
8-Oct-08
30-Oct-08
16-Dec-08
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
About
9
t r e n d s 2 0 0 9 -13 Area
a n n ua l r at e % U.S.
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Kootenai
0
3
Population
Households
2009
Families
County
h o u se h o l d
Owner HHs income
$75K-99K (12.1%)
Median $100K-$149K (6.4%)
$150-199K+ (1.7%)
HH Income
$200K+ (1.6%)
<$15K (10.3%)
p o p u l ati o n 2009
by ag e % 2014
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10-14 Idaho Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). As of the 2000 census, the county
population totaled 108,685 people, 41,308 households, and 29,659 families resid-
15-19 ing in the county. The median income for a household in the county was $37,754,
and the median income for a family was $42,905. There has been considerable
growth since the last census and current ESRI estimates project a 2009 population
20-24
25-34
of 141,814 people representing growth of over 30 percent in the past nine years.
35-44 The household count in Kootenai County has changed from 41,308 in 2000
to 54,159 in the current year, a change of 3.46 percent annually. The five-year
45-54
projection of households is 61,069, a change of 2.55 percent annually from the
current year total.
55-64
65-74
75-84
2 0 0 9 e m p l oy e d c i v i li a n p o p u l ati o n 16 + by i n d u s t ry
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
85+
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 1.7
Mining 1.2
Construction 10.7
p o p u l ati o n r ate Manufacturing 7.9
2000-2009 Pop. Annual Rate 2.9% Wholesale Trade 2.0
2009-2014 Pop. Annual Rate 2.4% Retail Trade 15.4
180000 Transportation/Warehousing 2.3
159869 Utilities 0.8
160000
141814 Information 2.7
140000
Finance/Insurance 4.5
120000 108685 Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 2.7
100000 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 4.6
80000
Management of Companies/Enterprises 0.1
69795
Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt. Services 3.3
60000
1990 2000 2009 2014 Educational Services 8.4
Health Care/Social Assistance 12.8
Arts/Entertainment/Recreation 2.5
Accommodation/Food Services 7.6
Other Services 4.5
Public Administration 4.3
Percentage of Employed Civilians
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
10
Sponsors Sources
and
Sponsors
S o u r c es
Auble, Jolicoeur & Gentry, U.S.
Census Bureau, J.P. Stravens/Plan-
ning Associates, Inc., U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics, Idaho Department
of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, ESRI, Federal Reserve,
Construction Monitor Inc., Coeur
d’Alene Multiple Listings Service,
Coldwell Banker Commercial, Wash-
ington State University Center for
Real Estate Research, Idaho State
Tax Commission, North Idaho Title,
Real Capital Analytics Inc., Wall
Street Journal Prime Rate
SCHNEIDMILLER REALTY
Locally Known,
Globally Connected
Craig Hunter Mike Gregg Paul Bielec Dani Bielec-Kramer Rob Kannapien Tont Piscitelli
CCIM CNS Dahl Knoles CCIM CCIM Wayne Burton CCIM
Pat Eberlin Doug Rall Glenn Sather John Kelpin Paul Scott Mike King Tina Edwardson
CCIM
Experience the resources of a powerful national presence and the agility of a local market
innovator. Working with a professional who knows and understands the local marketplace
is essential to making informed real estate decisions. With extensive local expertise
and a world-wide network, we provide a broad range of real estate
services in office, industrial, land, multi-family and retail.
Specializing in:
Property Sales & Leasing • Tenant & Buyer Representation
Investment Brokerage / 1031 Exchanges
Business Acquisitions & Dispositions
S E R V I N G I D A H O , W A S H I N G T O N & M O N T A N A