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Megascience
J. THOMAS RATCHFORD AND UMBERTO COLOMBO
Governments, companies and other institutions invest substantial resources in scientific research. In recent decades,
this investment has increased at an exponential rate, Overall investments in research and development (R&D) range
between 2% and 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for most large, industrialized nations.
In recent years, very large research projects have taken an increasing portion of research budgets, especially
governmental research budgets. This is not surprising. As we learn more about how the universe functions. natures
remaining secrets are increasingly complex, subtle and well hidden. Ever larger and more expensive research
projects are required to unlock at least some of these secrets, This is not only a matter of satisfying human curiosity.
The knowledge so gained may reveal Solutions to some of the most pressing problems affecting humankind in future
generations. Examples include the need to overcome global warming while satisfying growing energy needs, and an
all-out effort to tackle the mounting problem of epidemics such as AIDS that cannot simply be checked by changes
in hygiene or sanitation.
Superimposed against this background is the likelihood that scientists will face starkly reduced funds for the
foreseeable future. The capital-intensive science and technology (S&T) megaprojects are particularly vulnerable. In a
time of scarce resources, they are increasingly judged on their costs, on the number of jobs they might create, on
their contribution to economic competitiveness and on their direct contribution to societal demands - rather than on
their scientific validity. This shifting rationale may mean that, given the time-scale inherent in big science, several
current megaprojects, inherited from the past golden age of science, will come under ever closer scrutiny. Some
policy makers are now prepared to argue that, if this means slowing the pace of scientific progress, so be it. This
gives great scope for the politicization of science and for the role of lobbies - both scientific and other. in parallel. in
many areas of science, national funding constraints are driving increased interest in international cooperation.
An increasing number of ever more expensive, large-scale research projects has caused divisions within the
scientific community in recent years. Supporters of small science have challenged big science budgets, arguing that
economic benefits come more naturally from small science. Further, certain scientific disciplines such as high-energy
physics and astronomy depend much more on large-scale research projects than do others such as condensed- matter
physics, organic chemistry or molecular biology. This has led researchers in some fields of science to claim that big
science projects are funded at their expense.
The question What is big science and what is small science? is not always easy to answer. For example,
megaprojects such as synchrotron light sources are used in support of small science projects carried out by large
numbers of individual investigators. Should such facilities be allocated to the big science or the small science budget
category?
Fundamental to the question of where the funds come from for big science projects is the concept of a science
or research budget. Do governments have a fixed science budget? Would the funding for big science projects go
instead to small science if the big science projects were cancelled?
WHAT IS MEGASCIENCE?
This chapter uses the term megascience to encompass very large, predominantly basic scientific research projects or
programmes. Large technology projects, such as the space station, that are not primarily basic research efforts are not
included. Since some megascience projects (megaprojects) require the development and application of very
expensive and technologically sophisticated apparatus, the distinction is not always easy to draw. For example, one
megaproject of a largely technological nature, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), is on
the borderline between technology and science, since scientific evidence for the feasibility of controlled and
sustained thermonuclear fusion has yet to be demonstrated. ITER links the worlds four major thermonuclear
research efforts - the USA and Canada. the European Union, Japan and Russia.
Megascience in this chapter does not refer necessarily to large, integrated laboratories such as Brookhaven National
Laboratory or one of the Max-Planck Institutes. The scale of research in these laboratories is certainly equal to that
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of many, megaprojects, however, they lack the coherence and single-minded objectives of true megaprojects.
the central facility megaproject, such as the space telescope and the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility;
the distributed facility megaproject, such as the various interconnected Global Change Research Programmes
coordinated by the international Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA), and the
Human Genome Project.
Data
Data are the glue that holds distributed megaprojects together, and an ever-increasing component of such efforts, sometimes
measured in terabytes. Effective data collection, management, evaluation and distribution are crucial to the success of such
megaprojects. Challenges for the future include standardization and quality control for the data collected and processed, and
assurance of access for qualified researchers worldwide.
archived and made available to the scientific and policy communities worldwide.
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It is not always easy to categorize megaprojects as being either of the central or distributed facility type.
Oceanography is usually considered in the latter category although drilling ships are now beginning to look more like
megascience facilities as costs escalate for succeeding generations of vessels. And even particle accelerators, perhaps
the purest of central facility megaprojects, have a substantial portion of their costs carried by a diverse and often
international cadre of users, who actually do the experiments and furnish much of their experimental apparatus.
Measuring megascience
There are no commonly accepted accounting rules for measuring the costs of megaprojects or, for that matter, of
identifying a minimum level of funding required to earn the label 'megaproject'. There are a number of
considerations, such as absolute cost, cost relative to total government funding of all civil R&D or of the total budget
of the scientific discipline in which the megaproject is found. The unusually high cost of megaprojects constitutes an
insurmountable barrier for smaller countries to undertake on a national basis. But, increasingly, even the larger
nations are finding it difficult to take on megaprojects without international cooperation (see section entitled
Internationalizing megascience).
Many believe that funding for megaprojects has been increasing faster than for research overall. Studies of the
funding of megaprojects in the USA by the Congressional Budget Office and the General
Accounting Office in 1992, for example, concluded that megaprojects were squeezing research dollars for other
areas of research. This conclusion, however, assumes the research budget is fixed, with the ability to transfer funds
from one project or field of science to another. This is probably not the Case (see box).
How much of the total research budget goes to megaprojects? An analysis Of the US research budget by the
Congressional Research Service (CRS) shows megaprojects consuming about 10% of the total federal R&D budget
for the fiscal. years 1991-95. Although the definitions of megaprojects are somewhat different from those used by the
authors of this chapter, the comparison is useful in estimating the impact of megaprojects on research budgets. If one
examines the seven civilian megaprojects identified by CRS, and compares their budgets to the total federal basic
research budget, the proportion is of the order of 15 % A reasonable estimate therefore is that megaprojects consume
between 10% and 20% of the US federal research budget.
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research
Today, arguments for supporting megaprojects usually originate in the sub-discipline involved. and are based
on scientific considerations. National prestige, political and economic reasons are often invoked to buttress the
scientific rationale. Economic arguments range from the short term (direct expenditures) to the long range
(strengthening education, high-technology industries and international economic competitiveness).
Megascience clearly augments the worlds storehouse of knowledge, and provides associated intellectual,
educational and broad economic benefits. Academic studies indicate that the likely social rate of return from research
such as this is high. But the long-term benefits are likely to be global, not local or national, as we saw with Brahes
observatory. Private, or even national long-range benefits are harder to identify and, when they are identified, more
often than not turn out to be indirect benefits such as those related to education.
Role of scientists
As one would expect, the most likely supporters of a megaproject are the scientists working in the affected field of
research. Proposals for new megaprojects originate with the scientists, usually formal or informal groups outside
governments. They address the most exciting scientific challenges in the particular field. In some cases they emerge
from efforts to prioritize fields of research sponsored by prestigious scientific organizations. Some of these groups
are international. and various national initiatives may be included in the proposals. Some proposals originate in
international institutions that would be responsible for the megaproject.
There is no rigid formula for obtaining support for a potential megaproject. The most common path is for the
interested group of scientists to present its ideas to the national research agency that is the major source of funding
for the affected field of research. There may be initial funding provided for a feasibility study.
Crucial to a decision to go forward are cost estimates and selection of the site and/or contractor, The decision is
made by the agency, and in the case Of truly large megaprojects (budgets constituting a significant portion of the
agencys total R&D budget for the scientific field containing the megaproject), approved at higher levels Of
government. Low estimates of construction Costs are not uncommon. This approach is sometimes referred to as the
camels nose under the tent strategy The excessive, and sometimes partisan, optimism of supporters may carry initial
approval of a particular megaproject. But an accumulation of cost overruns and construction delays soon becomes a
boomerang which, in turn, casts doubt on the credibility of future projects, even in other areas of science. This
problem is compounded by the fact that megaprojects, once budgeted, are difficult to stop. Any such decision is
taken with much anguish and pain.
Scientists, in recent years have moved beyond the walls of the scientific community and the affected research
agencies in supporting specific megaprojects. In the USA. lobbying of Congress and mounting aggressive public
relations efforts are not unknown. Elsewhere, the situation is not much better. In Japan, and in Europe, lobbies
supporting particular high budget megaprojects may prevail over the concerned opinion of decision makers, as well
as the majority of scientists active in the field.
INTERNATIONALIZING MEGASCIENCE
For centuries, science and research have been perhaps the most international of all human activities. It is common for
scientists in universities and other research institutions to have much closer collaboration with colleagues half way
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around the world than with those half way down the hall.
This ease of collaboration irrespective of geography has become much easier and less expensive in recent
years, especially since the Second World War, because of developments in technology. Communications are
instantaneous and almost free. Travel is fast and less expensive, and red tape is not nearly as complicated as it once
was. One could argue that the environment for internationalizing research is in place. and that the invisible hand of
the market optimizes cooperative research activities.
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ITER
The original idea of jointly designing and building the first thermonuclear reactor was put forward in several summit meetings,
starting with the Mitterrand/Gorbachev meeting in Paris in 1985.
,he ongoing quadripartite (European Union, Japan, Russia and the USA) cooperation on an International Thermonuclear
Experimental Reactor (ITER), undertaken under he auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is a unique
example of world collaboration in big science. Its aim is to produce by July 19 98 the detailed engineering design of the reactor,
and to snare the supporting R&D jointly. Switzerland is fully -associated with the European Union. Canada is involved in the US
contribution and Kazakhstan with the Russian.
The overall programme objective of ITER is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy for peaceful
purposes. The ITER engineering design activities are expected to cost about US$1.2 billion (shared equally), to last six years and
to provide a sound basis for the decision on ITER construction. The design proper is being undertaken by a joint team of over 200
professionals and four home teams. Joint team centres are located in Japan, the USA and Germany. Supporting R&D tasks are
shared equally between the four parties.
A new agreement will be necessary for the construction phase. The site selection will be particularly challenging. Construction could
start in 1998, would take about eight years and cost about US$6.5 billion. ITER would operate for about 20 years.
THE FUTURE
Although the past is always helpful in providing insights into the future, in the case of internationalizing
megaprojects it is likely that the future will be very different from the situation since the 1960s. While financial
constraints are the major driving force favouring international cooperation, they arc not the only motive.
Global problems
In todays world we are facing a host or global problems which truly can only be solved through concerted efforts to
find global solution, Clear examples come from the environmental sciences First and foremost are studies into
climate change and the depletion of the ozone layer in the upper atmosphere. but there are also joint programmes in
deep drilling and oceanography. Megaprojects are underway to address some of these concerns. In the key area of
world nutrition, however, much remains to he done.
Agricultural productivity growth in South and South-East Asia has begun to peak. With rapid population
growth the need for food often submerges the call for environmental sustainability. Past scientific successes,
principally the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, are showing their, limits. There is clearly a need for more
sustainable approaches which must still be developed. We have to prepare for a world with 10-12 billion human
beings, of whom
fewer than 2 billion will be in the rich North. Megascience could offer a hope of avoiding catastrophe. Concerted
international cooperation in targeted (distributed) megaprojects uniting the latest scientific advances, specifically in
the nascent field of agro-biotechnologies, pooling resources and especially sharing risks, tasks and information and
data, could bring solutions much closer.
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This is an area in which the commitment of individual scientists will be as important as that of governments
and international organizations. Through the agencies of e-mail and the Internet, for example, team building comes
about through the electronic notice board, not through negotiation. This practice is surely destined to spread and to
affect big science. It may be that future megaprojects for solving global problems will first be conceived in this way.
Policy options
What might the future for megascience look like? What innovations in decision making, organization, funding arid
administration will evolve? The answers are riot easy to ascertain, but the three different scenarios outlined below
may provide some insights.
Status quo
The future may took somewhat like the recent past, with strong competition between and among national scientific
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groups, further politicization of the funding process and erratic decision making at the national level. Given the
boundary conditions noted above, this scenario does not augur well for the health of world science.
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