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The University of New South Wales School of Risk and Actuarial Studies
The University of New South Wales School of Risk and Actuarial Studies
The University of New South Wales School of Risk and Actuarial Studies
3.84
6.64
10.83
11.07
15.09
20.52
10 18.31
23.21
29.59
20 31.41
37.57
45.32
30 43.77
50.89
59.70
40 55.76
63.69
73.41
50 67.51
76.15
86.66
Page 2 of 10
Question 1 [4 marks]
A survival function is given by
i)
ii)
iii)
35
15p30
15|10q30
Page 3 of 10
Actual
Expected
20
21
22
23
24
2
3
6
10
16
2
4
5
10
10
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
23
24
29
27
35
32
46
31
43
25
39
41
62
60
84
44
89
75
65
68
99
123
126
127
179
20
19
20
22
25
28
34
28
42
27
36
45
58
64
73
55
83
70
64
81
88
117
130
126
150
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
91
146
177
154
137
207
146
181
201
136
214
103
131
186
141
146
210
149
164
217
140
206
Page 4 of 10
Chi squared
0.02
0.17
0.18
0.01
4.28
0.34
1.32
3.35
1.08
4.67
0.59
4.20
0.17
0.01
0.23
0.19
0.52
0.31
0.24
1.82
2.04
0.52
0.36
0.01
1.93
1.32
0.35
0.10
0.02
5.34
1.37
1.72
0.44
1.10
0.58
0.03
0.06
1.93
1.08
0.10
0.31
Question 2 continued
Some useful results:
Standardised deviations:
Less than -2
Less than -1
Less than 0
Less than 1
Less than 2
More than 2
Grouping of signs
Positive
Negative
Chi squared
Cumulative deviations
Total deaths
1000
0
6
12
11
8
4
Number
25
16
Total
44
-115
3329
Groups
12
11
First 21
26
-55
627
Second 20
18
-39
2702
100
10
Actual
Expected
1
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
You have been told that all the calculations except the last table have been checked
for accuracy.
Page 5 of 10
Question 2 continued
a)
If the rate interval used in collecting the data was a life year, and the society
has records of the age at death of each member, what records would it have had to
keep for determining the exposed to risk using the census method?
(2)
Page 6 of 10
Question 2 continued
b)
Defining everything you use, and making appropriate assumptions, develop a
formula for central death rates that could easily be used.
(6)
Page 7 of 10
Question 2 continued
c)
Performing any tests you consider necessary, state whether you believe that
the graduated results accurately reflect the underlying mortality of the society.
(10)
Page 8 of 10
Question 2 continued
d)
Comment on the use of graduation by standard table rather than the use of a
formula or the Whittaker Henderson method.
(4)
Page 9 of 10
Question 3 [4 marks]
Multiple decrements can be viewed using a Markov, Poisson or Binomial approach.
Describe very briefly the main considerations about which approach you would take
in practice.
END OF EXAMINATION
Page 10 of 10