NEWS RELEASE

Winnipeg Mayoral Race, March 2010

INCUMBENT MAYOR ON SOLID GROUND

But With 36% Support, Judy Wasylycia-Leis Is Sam Katz’s
Strongest Potential Challenger

Winnipeg – Six months before Winnipeggers head to the polls to elect a new
mayor and council, incumbent Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz enjoys a double-digit
lead over a crowded field of potential rivals, a new Probe Research Inc. survey
conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

While the survey of 603 Winnipeg adults reveals that approximately one-half of
decided voters (51%) would re-elect Mr. Katz in October 2010, more than one-in-
three voters (36%) would cast a ballot for current Winnipeg North NDP Member
of Parliament Judy Wasylycia-Leis in the event that she decides to enter the
mayoral race. With this level of support, Ms. Wasylycia-Leis is the strongest
potential challenger to Mr. Katz among those who have expressed interest in
running against the incumbent mayor or whose names have been suggested as
potential candidates.

Fewer than one-in-ten voters indicated that they would vote for current
Transcona city councillor Russ Wyatt (7%), Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce
president Dave Angus (5%) or current Elmwood-East Kildonan city councillor
Lillian Thomas (2%) – who is the only one amongst these potential challengers
who has officially announced her candidacy. Twenty-seven percent of surveyed
Winnipeg adults were unwilling or unable to indicate which of these individuals
they would vote for in the upcoming mayoral race.

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 Hypothetical Winnipeg Mayoral Race
“The next civic election in Winnipeg will be held in October of this year. Based on how you feel right now,
which of the following potential candidates for Mayor of Winnipeg would you be most likely to vote for in the
upcoming civic election?” (n=603)

80%

60%
51%

36%
40%

20%
7%
5%
2%
0%
Sam Katz Judy Wasylycia-Leis Russ Wyatt Dave Angus Lillian Thomas

Base: All Respondents

Katz Leads In South Winnipeg; Statistically Tied in Core, Northwest

Examining at the survey results on a regional basis reveals that the incumbent
mayor enjoys a significant lead over his rivals in the southern portion of the city,
but that a hypothetical civic election contest between Mr. Katz and Ms.
Wasylycia-Leis would be competitive in northwest Winnipeg and in the city’s
Core Area.

As the table below illustrates, Mr. Katz has the backing of more than two-thirds of
the electorate in southeast Winnipeg (68%, versus 23% for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis) and
more than one-half of decided voters in southwest Winnipeg (58%, versus 32% for
Ms. Wasylycia-Leis). Mr. Katz is also the first choice for nearly one-half of voters in
northeast Winnipeg (47%), although Transcona city councillor Russ Wyatt – who
represents this area – would receive votes from more than one-quarter of

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 decided voters in this area (27%), with 22 percent of voters expressing support for
Ms. Wasylycia-Leis.

In northwest Winnipeg – which encompasses the area Ms. Wasylycia-Leis

represents in the federal Parliament – Ms. Wasylycia-Leis and Mr. Katz are
statistically tied in support (48% for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis versus 41% for Mr. Katz). This
is also the case in the Core area, where 48 percent would vote for Ms.
Wasylycia-Leis and 43 percent prefer Mr. Katz.

HYPOTHETICAL WINNIPEG MAYORAL RACE

Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
– March 2010 –
“The next civic election will be held in October of this year. Based on how you feel right now,
which of the following potential candidates for Mayor of Winnipeg would you be most likely to
vote for in the next civic election?”
REGION
Total
Northwest Northeast Southeast Southwest Core
(603) (141) (111) (93)* (139) (120)
(Base)
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Sam Katz 51 41 47 68 58 43
Judy Wasylycia-Leis 36 48 22 23 32 48
Russ Wyatt 7 2 27 3 2 2
Dave Angus 5 8 3 1 9 4
Lillian Thomas 2 2 1 4 - 2
*Caution: Small Base

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Katz Backers Vs. Wasylycia-Leis Supporters – A Study In Contrasts
Both the incumbent mayor and the person perceived to be his main challenger
would draw upon very different bases of support should they face one another
in the October municipal election.

Mr. Katz’s political advantage heading into a municipal election is that he draws
more support from men (54%, versus only 29% of male voters who prefer Ms.
Wasylycia-Leis), younger adults (60%, versus 27% for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis) and more
affluent voters (53% of those with household incomes greater than $80,000/year,
versus 27% who would cast ballots for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis).

Both candidates were virtually tied in their support among older voters (46% of
those aged 55 years and over support Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, versus 43% who prefer
Mr. Katz), middle-income earners (43% of those earning $30,000-$59,999/year
support Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, compared to 42% who would vote for Mr. Katz) and
women (43% support Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, though 47% of female voters indicate
that they prefer Mr. Katz).

Importantly, there is a partisan divide between the candidates. Individuals who

would vote for the provincial Progressive Conservative party are far more likely to
prefer Mr. Katz (71%, versus just 14% who would vote for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, 9%
who would back Mr. Wyatt and 5% who would cast ballots for Mr. Angus). Voters
who prefer the provincial New Democratic Party, on the other hand, are slightly
more likely to prefer a representative of their preferred party in Ms. Wasylycia-Leis
over Mr. Katz (49% versus 40% respectively). Those who support the provincial
Liberals are slightly more likely to back Mr. Katz over Ms. Wasylycia-Leis (53%
versus 33% respectively), with 14 percent of these voters indicating they would
cast ballots for Mr. Angus.

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 HYPOTHETICAL WINNIPEG MAYORAL RACE
Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
– March 2010 –
“The next civic election will be held in October of this year. Based on how you feel right now,
which of the following potential candidates for Mayor of Winnipeg would you be most likely to
vote for in the next civic election?”
GENDER AGE
Total
Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+
(603) (288) (315) (175) (230) (167)
(Base)
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Sam Katz 51 54 47 60 49 43
Judy Wasylycia-Leis 36 29 43 27 35 46
Russ Wyatt 7 8 5 5 8 5
Dave Angus 5 7 3 8 5 5
Lillian Thomas 2 2 1 - 3 2
PROVINCIAL VOTING
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
INTENTION
Total
$30K- $60K-
NDP PC Liberal <$30K
$59K $79K $80K+
(603) (231) (150) (61)* (80)* (146) (69)* (179)
(Base)
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Sam Katz 51 40 71 53 46 42 59 53
Judy Wasylycia-Leis 36 49 14 33 41 43 36 27
Russ Wyatt 7 8 9 1 3 7 2 11
Dave Angus 5 2 5 14 6 8 2 7
Lillian Thomas 2 1 1 - 4 1 1 2
*Caution: Small Base

This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
th th
telephone interviews conducted between March 8 and March 25 , 2010 among a random
and representative sampling of 603 Winnipeg adults. With a sample of 603, one can say with
95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 4.0 percentage points of what they would
have been if the entire adult population of Winnipeg had been interviewed. The margin-of-
error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit
dialing was used to ensure that all Winnipeg adults would have an equal opportunity to
participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this
sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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For more information on this survey, please contact:

Scott MacKay
President,
Probe Research Inc.
Suite 850-125 Garry Street,
Winnipeg, Manitoba
R3C 3P2
Tel.: 926-6567
Cell: (204) 955-9777
Fax: 926-6566
E-mail: scott@probe-research.com

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