Paris Climate Conference:

What Climate Agreement did We Get?

NGOCSD Meeting Presentation
December 2015

Jan W. Dash, PhD

Lead Climate Advisor, NGOCSD
Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker
Managing Editor: Climate Portal climate.uu-uno.org

Climate Survival Issue

We humans are causing global warming
We are seeing bad impacts NOW
Impacts FAR WORSE if we do not act (BAU)
No place to hide under BAU
Disasters worse due to Climate Change:
Increased conflict (wars/national insecurity),
water shortages, crop failures, intense fires,
droughts, flooding, species extermination,
disease increase, extreme weather, sea level rise,
heat waves, precipitation changed, AND
economic/finance disruption (breakdown)

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Climate Ethics Issue

Climate

justice: Poor have the smallest

effect on climate hurt the worst

BUT

even the U.S. will be hit very hard if

no climate action

Intergenerational

ethics: Our descendants

More humane and cheaper for preventive

action now rather than disaster adaptive
action by our descendants in the future

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Sustainable Development Goals

All are tied to Climate Change

Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and
decent work for all
Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Goal 13.Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts*

Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests,
combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all
and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable
development

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Climate Action: We CAN mitigate

Climate Change / Global Warming:
Recognize/acknowledge

problem extent
Practice Climate Risk Management
Long term solution vs. short term expediency
Change: All Deliberate Speed to renewables
Obstacles: Disinformation / Political Obstruction,
Economic issues, Psychological...
Action:

All levels from local to global needed

No silver bullet solution exists

Individuals, NGOs, business, cities, governments
International climate agreement: this talk =>
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2015 Paris Climate Change Conference

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Negotiation Issues always same

CARBON

BUDGET: ESSENTIAL PROBLEM

Cant burn all carbon and have livable world

Cumulative

CO2 vs. Current CO2

Economic growth - developing countries.

Energy parity vs. CO2 emissions.

Legal

status (binding vs. non-binding)

Who pays for what? When?

Support for Adaptation/Mitigation (Green Fund)

Loss + Damage
Technology Assistance
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What did Paris deliver?

Solid Agreement. Better

than expected.
Built on Copenhagen + Durban +
All countries compromised
All countries agreed - diplomatic success
Goal - keep below +2 degrees C (+1.5oC)

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

Emissions reductions specified each country
184 countries submitted INDCs
BUT: NOT enough for +2oC target
Absolutely need future stronger INDCs
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Paris Agreement II
Measurement, Reporting,

Verification
Review every 5 years, increase ambition
Green fund to developing countries
$100B/yr minimum by 2020

Loss

and damage
Hybrid legal structure - complicated
Some parts binding, some not binding
Agreement is a new International treaty
BUT NOT a new national treaty for US
Implementing existing UNFCCC treaty (1992)
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Also Opportunities
Solutions

need public and private capital

Need $10 - $20 Trillion for transformation

This can result in huge benefits
Like transition mainframes iPhones
Businesses

and Paris Agreement

Solid signal for growth of renewable energy

Solid signal for decline of fossil fuel industry
Cities

continuing to act on climate

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PROBLEM: Climate Contrarians

We have no Climate Risk fallacy
Contrarian

pseudoscience and cherrypicked economic scenarios

Right wing media and think tanks
Contrarians control US Congress
Obstruction to Paris Agreement
Big reason why agreement is not stronger
Language had to be carefully chosen
Shall vs. Should

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Warming to 2100. Target: Blue. Paris: Red

(Green if extended). Current: Above Red.
IPCC 2007
Science Vol I

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Paris INDCs if fulfilled gives +3.5oC by

2100, better than BAU, still much too hot

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Emissions +2o: developing countries

must peak, decrease (leapfrog)

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Some Good News - Most Exciting

thing I heard
Dr. MacDonald, head

of NOAA lab (CO)

National power grid for US proposed
1/3 solar, 1/3 wind, 1/3 NG
Cuts emissions for US significantly
High Voltage DC network beside
Interstate Highways
Off-the-shelf technology. It will work.

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NGOCSD Climate Paper

Every

year starting with Copenhagen

Promoted at Paris
Given to some US negotiators
Mentioned to Al Gore who was there
Given to panel members (INDC Ethics)

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Panel: Ethical Aspects of INDCs

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Paris Blog on Climate Portal

climate.uu-uno.org

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Road to Paris Superhighway from Paris.

SIGN PARIS PLEDGE FOR ACTION
Public Opinion LTE, legislature contacts
Price on Carbon cap/trade, fee/dividend
Urge stronger INDC for next review
Advocate Sustainable Development Goals
Opposition to contrarians
Support EPA regulations on emission control

We

must be optimistic (no alternative)

You

can help
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Thank You

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