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Auto Volumes Automobile Assembler Auto Sales in Fy15 Record An Impressive 31% Yoy Growth!
Auto Volumes Automobile Assembler Auto Sales in Fy15 Record An Impressive 31% Yoy Growth!
Auto Volumes
Automobile Assembler
FY14
26.0%
31.6%
54.9%
56.0%
Punjab governments taxi scheme (Bolan and Ravi, 25,000 units each).
Exhibit: Category and Company-Wise Passenger Cars and LCV Unit Sales
Jun-15
May-15
MoM
YoY
>1300cc
1000cc
PSMC
INDU
HCAR
7,476
1,626
<1000cc
Source: PAMA
Auto financing trend
7,672
2,033
-3%
-20%
79%
-18%
FY15
FY14
YoY
78,533
19,133
58,050
16,455
35%
16%
2,306
2,677
-14%
-22%
29,886
29,509
1%
Total Cars
LCV's + 4x4
11,408
6,394
12,382
6,955
-8%
-8%
25%
114%
127,552
52,401
104,014
32,874
23%
59%
Total
17,802
19,337
-8%
47%
179,953
136,888
31%
(PKR bn)
80
Company-wise
PSMC
9,795
11,477
-15%
27%
98,879
77,608
27%
75
INDU
5,458
5,507
-1%
264%
56,943
33,997
67%
70
HCAR
2,488
2,353
6%
-7%
23,622
23,674
0%
65
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
55
Jun-14
60
Source: SBP
Source: PAMA
Jun-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
(000
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
-
Jun-14
Sales in FY16 to hold steady, we expect, with marginal upticks across segments
For FY16, we expect sales to hold firm across all major categories, with improvements in
LCVs, 1000cc and below 1000cc segments, due to continuation of the Taxi scheme (LCVs)
and the impact of auto financing in low policy rate scenario (lowest in 4 decades). Moreover,
auto financing as per SBP data, is at its highest in Apr-15 (at PKR 79bn), since May-09, a
high of nearly six years, with a continuously increasing MoM trend since Jul-12 (PKR 45bn).
270
2,306
289
2,677
YoY
FY15
FY14
YoY
-7%
-14%
-47%
-22%
3,490
29,886
5,128
29,509
-32%
1%
Analyst
Liana
nm
-100%
23
161
-86%
Ahmed Lakhani
ahmed.lakhani@arif habibltd.com
Cultus
Wagon R
1,087
539
1,353
680
-20%
-21%
-7%
-31%
13,837
5,246
14,682
1,621
-6%
224%
+92-21-32461106
Bolan
3,003
3,399
-12%
146%
23,582
14,088
67%
Ravi
Total
2,590
9,795
3,079
11,477
-16%
-15%
138%
27%
22,815
98,879
12,419
77,608
84%
27%
www.arifhabibltd.com
Morning Call
July 13, 2015
INDU: FY15 was a turnaround story, with 67% YoY growth
Indus Motors (INDU) recorded an impressive performance in FY15, growing overall unit
sales by 67% YoY, due to 11th Generation Corolla launch, and increasing its market share
in Cars and LCVs from 26% in FY14 to 32% in FY15, mainly at the expense of Honda Cars
(HCAR). Fortuner and Hilux sales, albeit minor in comparison to the Corolla, also
contributed to sales growth, with increases of 85% and 7%, respectively. With INDU
increasing its capacity through a 4th assembly line for Fortuner and Corolla, we expect sales
growth for both variants in FY16 with minor uptick in Corolla sales
Exhibit: Unit Sales - Indus Motor Company
Jun-15
May-15
Corolla
MoM
YoY
FY15
FY14
YoY
4,718
5,030
-6%
386%
51,398
29,087
77%
54
44
23%
1250%
722
390
85%
Hilux
686
433
58%
31%
4,823
4,520
7%
Total
5,458
5,507
-1%
264%
56,943
33,997
67%
Fortuner
MoM
YoY
FY15
FY14
YoY
686
720
-5%
-38%
7,805
9,933
-21%
City
1,802
1,633
10%
15%
15,817
13,741
15%
Total
2,488
2,353
6%
-7%
23,622
23,674
0%
May-15
MoM
YoY
FY15
FY14
YoY
Tractors
MTL
2,556
2,729
-6%
161%
28,711
21,040
36%
AGTL
1,375
1,551
-11%
126%
17,078
11,608
47%
Total
4,016
4,428
-9%
131%
46,800
33,584
39%
www.arifhabibltd.com
Disclaimer: The information contained herein is compiled from sources AHL believes to be reliable, but we do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to be an
offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. AHL and its officers or employees may or may not have a position in or with respect to the securities mentioned herein and they do not accept any
liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication and its contents. AHL may, from time to time, have a consulting relationship with a company being
reported upon. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice.
Morning Call
July 13, 2015
Going forward, with increases in FY16 budget for infrastructure development and China- Pak
Economic Corridor (CPEC) impact, we expect both companies to show robust growth in
coming periods.
Exhibit: Unitt Sales - Trucks, Buses & Three-Wheelers
Jun-15
May-15
MoM
Trucks
GHNL
YoY
FY15
FY14
YoY
42
118
-64%
-11%
852
378
125%
HINO
179
171
5%
58%
1,510
1,055
43%
Buses
HINO
38
40
-5%
41%
475
496
-4%
1,206
1,088
11%
27%
13,991
13,107
7%
Three Wheelers
SAZEW
Recommendation
We remain inclined towards PSMC, with our revised TP of PKR 481/share, presenting an
upside of 10.3%, thereby meriting a BUY call. For INDU, we recommend a HOLD, with a
TP of PKR 1,275/share and a corresponding upside of 2.4%, as all positives are priced in,
per our estimates.
www.arifhabibltd.com
Disclaimer: The information contained herein is compiled from sources AHL believes to be reliable, but we do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to be an
offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. AHL and its officers or employees may or may not have a position in or with respect to the securities mentioned herein and they do not accept any
liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication and its contents. AHL may, from time to time, have a consulting relationship with a company being
reported upon. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice.
Morning Call
July 13, 2015
Mark et Re view
KSE - Closing
Points Change
% Change
MTD Change
YTD Change
Turnover (m)
Source: KSE
Volum e Le aders
KEL
PACE
TPL
BYCO
TRG
Major Gaine rs
FEROZ
JLICL
MFFL
POML
SUTM
Major Lose rs
SIEM
SRVI
EXIDE
HINO
CPPL
Source: KSE
Se ttle m e nt Data
PACE
KEL
TPL
JPGL
CSIL
* data of Jul 10, 2015
Future Open Int
PAEL-JUL
ENGRO-JUL
MLCF-JUL
DGKC-JUL
EFOODS-JUL
Total
Source: KSE
Fixe d Incom e
6M KIBOR (%)
T-Bill 12M (%)
PIB 10Yrs (%)
Source:SBP
Curre ncy Rates
USD
EUR
GBP
Source: SBP
Com m odity Price s
Gold ($/oz)
WTI ($/bbl)
Source: Bloomberg
All s hare
24,524.79
(8.63)
-0.04%
488.07
1,126.88
316.02
KSE-100
35,112.29
(34.84)
-0.10%
713.43
2,981.01
145.12
Volum e(m )
21.13
19.90
16.64
13.90
13.71
Change
Close
8.02
7.39
20.67
27.11
37.55
Close
22.65
21.00
12.33
12.21
12.00
Change
-53.22
747.92
441.00
443.00
256.47
254.00
Close
1,177.28
-43.06
-12.92
-8.13
-7.57
854.44
1,105.08
845.78
205.78
Volum e
11.2
11.2
7.1
5.3
4.8
% Se ttle d
49.1%
44.1%
41.2%
43.9%
46.1%
1467.6
465.5
451.7
400.6
8429.4
10-Jul-15
7.03%
6.97%
10.00%
Todays News
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are launching a new initiative to
help developing countries strengthen their tax systems, says an official announcement.
Analysis associated with the two institutions suggests that many lower-income
countries have the potential to increase their tax ratios by at least 2 to 4 per cent of
their GDPs, without compromising fairness or growth. Raising additional revenues will
allow developing countries to fill financing gaps and to promote development.
Pakistan is top on the list of the countries that need to reform their tax systems. In a
recent statement, the IMF mission chief in Pakistan urged the rulers to broaden the
countrys tax base. The countrys tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 9 to 10pc of GDP, which,
the IMF believes, should be increased to 15pc over the medium term to protect
spending on high priority areas, including the social sector. (Dawn)
Op. Vol
(m n)
(PKR m n)
(m n)
(PKR m n)
ENGRO
0.36
93.56
12.2%
UBL
5.73
813.64
18.3%
PAEL
0.82
60.43
14.7%
ENGRO
2.38
608.84
13.7%
UBL
0.22
31.60
12.3%
SSGC
9.25
321.19
7.2%
FFBL
0.50
24.98
13.8%
PAEL
4.21
293.42
6.6%
SSGC
0.58
21.12
14.4%
EFERT
3.71
281.64
6.3%
Total
8.33
384.03
1283.1%
Total
98.30
4,453.40
Source: NCCPL
MSCI Index
Last
Day
YTD
Pakistan
135.2
0.3%
-1.0%
10-Jul-15
-7.19
Frontier Mkt
571.1
0.7%
-6.7%
MTD
-16.6
Emerging Mkt
932.9
1.4%
-2.5%
FYTD
-16.6
EM Asia
453.0
1.4%
-1.0%
CYTD
-91.1
Source: MSCI
Board Meetings
P.T.C.L
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd
FIPI (USDm )
Net Buy/(Sell)
Source: NCCPL
Period
2Q
2Q
3Q
2Q
Date
Tim e
15-Jul 12:30 PM
29-Jul 11:15 AM
29-Jul
5:00 PM
24-Aug
2:30 PM
Location
Islamabad
Karachi
Dubai
Karachi
Source: KSE
10-Jul-15
101.63
113.55
157.97
10-Jul-15
1,163.70
52.74