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Case Study of An Asian-European Automotive Supply Chain
Case Study of An Asian-European Automotive Supply Chain
2, 2013
.
Si
nc
eFor
r
e
s
t
e
r(
19
5
8)d
i
s
c
o
v
e
r
e
d
around 45 years ago that variations of demand (and based on that the variations of orders and stocks) are increased up the supply
chain from customer to supplier, researchers look for reasons and try to find countermeasures. While in-depth academic analysis
has been conducted for retail markets, very little research has been done on this in global business-to-business networks. We used
data from a case study of one Asian-European supply network in order to identify endogenous causes and counter-measures for
demand variation. We analyzed the effects and clustered counter-measures with respect to information and behavior
uncertainties. This study provides in-depth insights into the dependencies of supply structures to endogenous, even
macroeconomic developments. At the same time this study recommends counter-measure strategies to the bullwhip-effect for
practitioners and their global supply chains.
Keywords: Bullwhip effect, Global supply chain management, Automotive industry, Case study
INTRODUCTION
Lacking coordination of demand and supply information is one of the main causes for demand and stock variation which
propagates upstream with amplification occurring at each echelon of the supply chain. Lee, Padmanabhan, and Whang (1997a)
a
n
dLe
e
,So,a
ndTa
n
g(
200
0)p
op
ul
a
r
i
z
e
dt
h
et
e
r
m
b
ul
l
wh
i
p
-e
f
f
e
c
t
f
ort
h
i
sph
e
n
ome
n
onofde
ma
n
dd
i
s
t
or
t
i
on
.
Theb
ul
l
wh
i
p
81
ISSN 2076-9202
h
owa
nd
why
82
ISSN 2076-9202
83
ISSN 2076-9202
ISSN 2076-9202
i
n
t
r
a
-l
og
i
s
t
i
c
s
)
.Weh
e
l
ds
e
ve
r
a
lwor
k
s
h
op
sa
tt
h
eEur
op
e
a
nh
e
a
d
q
ua
r
t
e
r
sa
ndi
n
t
e
r
v
i
e
we
df
i
v
es
up
p
l
yma
n
a
g
e
r
si
nf
our
different organizational units (national subsidiaries, central stock, European and Asian Headquarters). Additionally, we analyzed
purchasing, sales and forecast data. We studied the developments in the case firm starting from 2008 up to 2011.
THE C ASE OF THE 2ND TIER ELECTRONIC AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENT SUPPLIER
The Asian-European Supply Chain
The supply chain of the case company connects the Asian production units (factories) in China, Japan or Thailand by ship or by
plane with the European central warehouse in Germany or national warehouses all over Europe. National warehouses are situated
in countries with important automot
i
v
eOEMs(
I
t
a
l
y
,
Sp
a
i
n
,
Fr
a
n
c
e
,
Cz
e
c
hRe
p
ub
l
i
c
,
Un
i
t
e
dKi
ng
d
om)
.
Th
ec
omp
a
n
i
e
s
c
l
i
e
n
t
s
,
mostly 1st tier module suppliers (cockpit, navigation, entertainment) are supplied from those warehouses.
The information flows from the clients (orders) in either a national subsidiary or a national sales office. The orders are then
forwarded to the European headquarters. However, also direct orders from national sales offices or subsidiaries to the Asian
production facilities are possible. The Asian headquarters coordinate and prioritize all orders from the world. This is more or less
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ISSN 2076-9202
On a first glance, the characteristics of this structure are many partly redundant roles and responsibilities. A controlling of
orders and stocks was hardly possible, because of a direct communication link from national sales offices to the factories and
several central, national stocks. However, we had to verify, if this structure is really affected by amplifying order and stock
variances. In general, the bullwhip effect can be shown comparing the variances of all outgoing goods with the variances of all
incoming goods (Cachon et al. 2007).
For the case company, we had insight into the sales, purchase and forecast data from 2008 to 2011. For the year 2009 the
aggregated variance of all outgoing goods (sales) compared to the variance of all incoming goods (purchase) showed significant
differences. Therefore we could detect the bullwhip effect (particularly for 2009), because sales figures doubled in 2009, while
purchases kept relatively stable compared to 2008. For 2010 sales figures decreased (~50%) while now with a time delay of one
year purchase data doubled. In 2010 the later discussed countermeasures were initiated, which might explain the reduction of
sales and purchase variances in 2011 (Fig. 2).
Figure 2: Comparison of the variances (Source: According to Croson and Donohue, 2006)
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The existence of significant variances between sales (outgoing goods) and purchases (incoming goods) poses the question about
the causes and possible assessment of these variances. Due to the specific circumstances of this Asian-European intra-logistics
supply chain we do not follow a simulation-based, but rather a holistic and general management approach for this problem.
Causes for the bullwhip effect in the case
In the analysis of the sales and purchase variances it became obvious that it is not one, sole cause. Rather a mixture of causes and
even macroeconomic effects led to the variances. Beginning with the macroeconomic situation, in 2008 the worldwide financial
and economic crisis caused a significant decrease in the demand for automobiles. This forced European politicians to take action
for protecting their national automotive industry. In leading markets such as France or Germany so-called
car scrap
-bonus
systems were used to stimulate end-customer demand. The system awarded a customer with a bonus payment for buying a new
c
a
rmod
e
l
f
r
om(
ad
ome
s
t
i
c
)OEM,
s
c
r
a
p
p
i
ngupt
he
ol
dmod
e
l
.
The financial-economic crisis and the
c
a
rs
c
r
a
p
-policy led to
several effects for the case company:
Firstly, demand decreased due to the crisis in 2008. The case firm had enormous problems with the capital lock-up of their stocks.
In the most striking example, products had already been shipped to Europe although it was clear that no client would need that
delivery anymore. In order to reduce the capital lock-up in the central and national stocks and to get more stockage space, some
older electric devices were even scrapped up.
Second, due to the
c
a
r
-s
c
r
a
p
-bonus systems in leading markets, the demand unexpectedly increased. This led to a bottleneck
situation and demand exceeded the supply by several times. In order to somehow satisfy demand, the Asian factories produced at
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ISSN 2076-9202
-policy led to an increase in the demand for new car models, which require disproportionate many (modern)
electronic devices built-in. This caused a supply shortage and led to behavioral problems, as national sales offices or subsidiaries
tried to satisfy at any costs their national customers. 3) The demand and order data showed a very high variance, particularly
i
nt
h
ef
i
r
s
tc
oup
l
eofmon
t
h
soft
h
e
c
a
r
-s
c
r
a
p
-policy. However, the lead-time is about 30 days from Asia to Europe and it
happened that parts in the wrong amount was produced and shipped. Failures due to long lead-times were corrected using faster
but costly air transport. 4) The communication to the customers at the beginning of the case provided almost no additional order
information. As it became obvious, that electronic devices run short due to the bonus policy, customers placed very high batch
orders to secure their supply. 5) Only the fifth cause was not of importance, as prices kept stable, due to long-term contracts, even
if transport means changed for a short period from sea to air freight.
As a reaction, the case company introduced several countermeasures. Three main initiatives have been realized: a reorganisation
of the supply chain structure, a change in the coordination and information system and the implementation of a forecast
instrument.
Reorganisation: Implementation of a central supply chain management
The most challenging initiative for the case company was the transformation of the supply chain structure. Considering the flow
of goods, a new and strict policy was introduced to ship the goods either directly to the clients or to the central stock. This
abandoned national company stocks and reduced
d
oub
l
e
s
a
f
e
t
ys
t
oc
k
si
nthe national and in the central warehouses. As a
side-effect stock transparency was enhanced, because company stock is centralized in one European distribution centre.
Considering the information flow, the objective was similar and aimed to avoid double structures and to reduce the number of
interfaces. Therefore the national subsidies were transformed into nationa
ls
a
l
e
sof
f
i
c
e
s(
on
ef
a
c
et
ot
h
ec
us
t
ome
r
)
.All sales
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ISSN 2076-9202
b
l
i
n
d
orders, risk-averse safety stocks and other behavioural causes of the bullwhip effect to an absolute minimum.
Additionally, this also reduced the necessity for costly expedite shipments, as the central coordination also smoothed the demand
orders of the sales offices.
Controlling: Implementation of a forecast instrument and governance structure
As a third management initiative, a specialised forecast department has been built up. This department concentrates on the
forecast of the automotive demand in Europe, provides additional information for rational decision making, and supports the
central supply chain department with forecast data in case of coordination conflicts with either the national sales offices or the
Asian factories. A governance model gives guidance to all persons involved. Once a month, all forecast figures are collected and
sent to the Asian factories by this department. With these data, the factories can manage their production planning more precise.
This also helps to reduce lead times in the factory and provides more flexibility and adaptability in case of unforeseen demand
changes.
Altogether the case company has implemented three main initiatives: Reorganisation, Process optimization, and implementation
of new controlling-tools and governance rules. This had significant impact on the order information management, stock levels
and lead times. Fig. 2 illustrates the decrease in sales and purchase variances in 2011. Altogether, the success bases mainly on the
reduction of double or redundant interfaces in the information as well as in the logistical flows. Bidirectional information and
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ISSN 2076-9202
b
ot
t
l
e
n
e
c
k
-pa
n
i
c
or
b
l
i
n
dor
d
e
r
s
.Thes
t
r
uc
t
ur
eoft
h
et
r
a
n
s
f
or
me
ds
up
p
l
yne
t
wor
ki
sa
sf
ol
l
ows(
Fi
g
. 3):
Figure 3: New information and supply network of the case firm:
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This case study on the bullwhip effect is limited in the sense that only one case was examined from a holistic
perspective. However, we are confident that the extracted findings may apply to numerous firms which operate
global supply networks. Nevertheless, we suggest further research, on the one hand side to collect broader empirical
evidence by examining other and more cases and on the other to align demand and supply in order to reduce the
logistical footprint in total.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Thai resear
c
he
r
s
c
o
ns
o
r
t
i
um ofSu
ppl
yCha
i
nMa
na
g
e
me
nta
ndLog
i
s
t
i
c
s
,the Sepuluh
Nopember Institute of Technology (Indonesia), and the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (Thailand) for
the opportunity to present an early version of this research work at the 3rd International Conference on Logistics and
Transport.
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