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Tomorrow Technology Today
Tomorrow Technology Today
21 April 2010
In recent months, there has been a flurry of ordering using standard designs as owners
jump at the chance to contract off-the-shelf ships at low prices.
We are also aware that shipping is squarely in the cross hairs as a politically easy target
due to its green house gas (GHG) footprint.
On 31 March 2010, Lloyds List carried an article with the headline, Shipping seen as soft
target for climate levy
The article noted that Shipping could face a further challenge over its contribution to climate
change as the UN-sponsored Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing holds its first
meeting, adding that . . . shipping is widely seen as a soft target and if a consensus view
emerges from this high level group that shipping should be subject to a levy, it would be hard to
change its opinion.
We also know that leading innovators in shipping have been busy with advanced designs
and technologies aimed at reducing emissions and carbon footprints.
Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding (MES) will shortly release new designs for VLCCs
and Handymax bulkers that would cut CO2 emissions and fuel consumption by 30%.
Roughly speaking, the gains are from 10% reduction with the hull design, another 10%
from the propulsion system and the rest through measures such as paint and other
innovations.
Fortunately, emission reduction and sound economic rationale pull in the same direction
to use the words of DNVs Tor Svensen. Thus the existing fleet and newbuilding market
will target reduced fuel costs and emissions at same time. Yet, the shipping market is still
at the early stages of developing a mechanism to reward owners for investing in new
technologies that will reduce later operating costs (not to mention possible exposure to a
carbon tax).
Speaking at an April liner shipping conference, Seaspan chief executive Gerry Wang
urged containership owners to rally to a radical design rethink that would cut ship prices
and reduce operating costs.
He told Lloyds List that when market conditions are booming, there is little incentive for
shipping lines or shipyards to review traditional ship designs. It is during the bad times
that we can do that, he said, explaining that he had been in contact with other
containership owners to gather a critical mass to convince shipbuilders to adopt
dramatically new designs.
Market Comment
21 April 2010
To date, the shipowners that have initiated the most advanced green design efforts are
those companies that own and operate big fleets such as Maersk or MOL. While
mentioning specific examples in the report, it is important to remember that a wide range
of other owners, yards and design companies that are also making efforts to reduce fuel
consumption.
Yet, for owners of tonnage, there has historically been little correlation between building
the best ships and making returns because traditionally the operators don't pay more for
the efficiency even if they would potentially save millions in opex. In other words, there is
no standard interface between operator and owner of tonnage in any sector (bulk, tanker,
or liner) to calibrate the gains from efficiency investments.
Oskar Levander, Head of Conceptual Design at Wartsila Ship Design explained that
because ship operation economic modeling is more focused on lifetime operating costs,
there should be an incentive to invest in fuel efficient (and low emission) designs.
Many tankers and bulk carriers (bulkers) have been traditionally traded as commodity products.
Most new ships entering the market are of standard design, with origins that can in some cases be
dated back a decade or more. In the design process, construction costs rather than the costs of
operation have been the main driver, and the fact that shipowners or operators seldom pay for
bunker fuel themselves has spurred this unhealthy trend, wrote Levander in a recent paper.
Muddying the water is the uncertainty in the shipbuilding industry and shipping industry
about the next wave of environmental restrictions.
Worldyards knows that few owners will willingly pay extra for low emission investments,
yet, whatever ones view on the science of climate change, there appears to be a strong
possibility that shipping will be subject to a strong regulatory mandate to reduce CO2.
That said, a ship operator can save millions a year on bunker through initiatives that will
also cut emissions. The fuel bills for container lines are particularly severe even after the
adoption of slow steaming. It is also clear that in the container industry, client demands
for low carbon footprints such as in the case of Wal-Mart will have the possibility to
spark investment in new technology ships.
However, the point one can make is that an owner is looking at a 25-30 years investment
horizon when it comes to hardware. Even if carbon emissions comes into force 5-10
years later looking at green solutions is still likely to pay off over the investment
horizon.
If carbon were priced at $25 per tonne, against $500 per ton of heavy fuel oil, the fuel
price would play a dominate position in investment calculations. As noted, we believe
there will be an increasing likelihood that shipping will be seen as a target for tax.
We do not know the answers to all these questions, but it is clear that shipping companies
and yards are preparing strategic efforts to lead the pack in the new global context.
Japan has long been at the forefront of green technology, while Korea has also been a
leader in technically complex vessels. We can also see that China has the opportunity to
be at the forefront to design efficient ships as it increases its fleet of nationally-controlled
tonnage.
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Market Comment
21 April 2010
Amongst the shipping companies, some players will position themselves as benchmarkers
and eventual leaders in the efficient green shipping space. As there is greater availability
of measurements and data sets accepted in the industry, there is an increasing trend for
use of operational data sets to frame new expectations, which then raises the bar. Those
who potentially benefit are those who how to build to the new rules before others.
Soren Stig, Senior Director, Head of Sustainability at A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S noted in
comments to Worldyards that, a key message to the yards is that they have an opportunity to
add value to owners by focusing on and proposing solutions that consider operating cost and lifecycle aspect. The pay-back in energy efficiencies initiatives is often very attractive - and even more
so as new regulation is being implemented.
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Market Comment
21 April 2010
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Market Comment
21 April 2010
Work conducted by the LR Strategic Research Group found that fuel efficiency gains of
up to 20% were shown to be achievable by optimizing the hull shape. Savings of about 8%
were also shown to be possible by applying appropriate coatings to the hull and further
potential fuel savings of up to 8% were shown to be possible by replacing an old turbocharger, with another 5% to 7% possible by improving the fuel injection system.
Market Comment
21 April 2010
Market Comment
21 April 2010
(Source: Marine-net)
The EEDI approach takes four factors into consideration (as stated verbatim in ABS
Bulletin):
An emission factor derived from the fuel consumed by the main engine running at 75%
of rated installed power. Ice class ships would get an adjustment credit.
An emission factor derived from the fuel consumed by a nominal auxiliary engine power
source sufficient to supply normal sea loads. This would be calculated as a function of the
main engine output regardless of the actual unit installed.
An emission factor derived from the fuel consumed at 75% of the rated auxiliary
generator power consumption. Vessels with a waste heat recovery system would receive a
credit.
A factor will be applied to reflect innovative energy efficient technologies that have been
incorporated into the design.
To arrive at the index, the sum of the first three factors, minus the fourth factor is divided
by the product of the ships cargo capacity, reference speed and a non-dimensional factor
to account for speed reductions in a specified sea state. (source: ABS)
In February 2010, Samsung Heavy Industries held a big bash where they unveiled its
plan to build only eco-friendly ships from 2015, by achieving a 30% reduction in
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Market Comment
21 April 2010
greenhouse gas emissions. Samsung thus claims to be the first shipbuilder in the global
shipbuilding industry to declare a green management policy that includes a detailed
vision for the development of eco-friendly products and the reduction of GHG emissions.
Focus areas will include optimal shape of ships that will maximize fuel efficiency, WHR
devices and low-temperature combustion devices. In particular, the company has set a
goal of building ships by developing LNG and hydrogen fuel cells, superconduction
electricity-powered motors and cables, and CO2 collection technology, jointly with
universities and private research centers.
Samsungs Geoje Shipyard has been designated to be a green workplace by developing
eco-friendly shipbuilding facilities, using eco-friendly paints and saving energy, while
building a green network by providing technical support to its partners to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, and by introducing a certification system.
Comparing with its Korean counterparts, Japanese yards have been found to be investing
less on environmental concerns. The following are reported by Marine-net:
Mitsubishi Heavy R&D budget of its ship division in fiscal 2009 is Y3 bn. This is
triple compared to 10 years ago, but reportedly a fraction of South Korean majors
[though it is unclear how much of Korean R&D is directed at offshore].
Universal Shipbuilding Corp. spent Y2.4 bn in fiscal 2008, which was its peak
level.
Most other yards less than Y1 bn level.
National Maritime Research Institute (NMRI) under the wing of Japans Ministry of
Land, Infrastructure and Transport is working on the project of ZEUSthe National
Zero Emission Ultimate Ship, which as a one report put it is a suitably Olympian name
for a Herculean goal. Namely, NMRI is expecting to develop ships that will call at ports
to recharge their batteries and generate no emissions.
NMRI is making efforts to produce a 40% energy saving on container ships via methods
such as ultra-wide twin skeg hull, reaction pods, a stream-lined bow bridge, a step belt
above the bulbous bow and air lubrication. Air lubrication is now being tested on an
NYK subsidiary ship just delivered by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries with microbubbles
generated along the hull bottom to reduce resistance.
The focus on hull form tweaks has thus far to get its 40% reduction and the next move is
on electric propulsion, using solar panels and shore power supply systems to cut
emissions by as much as 80% by 2030. The final furlong will involve incorporating fuel
cells.
Market Comment
21 April 2010
The fuel cell working principle is rather like a battery that doesn't need recharging. It
operates as long as it is fed with fuel. It can boast to be silent, clean and efficient.
Furthermore, many types of fuels can be used to produce such cells, including natural gas,
bio-fuels, methanol, hydrogen or even light fuel oils. Fuel cell price is currently around 6
times that of marine diesel engines (including installation). Yet, significant reduction in
manufacturing cost is expected due to economy of scale effects when mass production
starts.
Concluding thoughts
After reviewing the various initiatives, in this edition of market comment, we conclude
with the contention that the road ahead will now be dictated by shipping market
mechanisms rather than the technology itself. We believe that the paradigm shift will be
mapped out by answering the following questions;
1. Will there be externally imposed political mandate to reduce CO2 be imposed
externally?
2. What mechanisms will be developed to mitigate shipowner's resistance in terms of
reduced cost, ship operation efficiency and so on?
3. Will shipowners/operators pass all or part of the cost onto cargo owner or consumer?
4. Which shipowners/shipyards will move first and using what investment logic to invest
in the new generation of ship design?
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