May 05, 2014

A Sharekhan commodity research newsletter

Gold: forming a base

KST (-0.46079)

Weekly close: $1,299.82

0
-5

Gold had fallen down in a three-wave manner. It reached

near the lower end of the medium-term falling channel
as well as near the previous low of $1,180. At that level
the bulls rushed in to provide support to the yellow metal.
Thus, gold broke out from the medium-term falling
channel and retraced 78.6% of the fall. From there gold
has done a short-term correction and has retraced nearly
61.8% of the previous rise. Unless the key Fibonacci level
ie $1,263 breaks on a closing basis gold can march towards
the high of $1,391. The short-term target will be $1,330.

100.0%

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Up

$1,263.0

$1,276,$1,268

Resistances

Target

$1,323, $1,342

$1,330,
$1,391

1391

0.0%
78.6%

1330

23.6%

61.8%

38.2%

50.0%

50.0%
38.2%
61.8%

1263
23.6%

1240
78.6%

1230
1220
1210
1200
1190

100.0%

0.0%

1180
1170
1160
1150

July

Trend

1500
1490
1480
1470
1460
1450
1440
1430
1420
1410
1400
1390
1380
1370
1360
1350
1340
1330
1320
1310
1300
1290
1280
1270
1260
1250

Augus t

Septem ber

Novem ber

Silver: near multiple supports

2014

February March

April

May

June

KST (-1.84704)

10
5
0

Weekly close: $19.460

-5
-10
SILVER [CASH] (19.0000, 19.6400, 18.8600, 19.4600, +0.46000)

Silver in February 2014 had broken out from the mediumterm falling channel. It retraced 50% of the previous fall,
where it faced selling pressure. Consequently, the white
metal has tumbled back till the medium-term rising trend
line. Near this strong support zone the bulls are expected
to move in to throw the price higher. Thus, unless silver
falls below the junction of the previous low and the
medium-term rising trend line ie unless $18.80 breaks on
a closing basis it can head up to test the high of $22.16.
The intermediate target would be $21.15.
Trend
Up

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

$18.80

$19.20, $18.86

$20.36, $21.00

$21.15,
$22.16

32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0

100.0%

24.5
24.0

78.6%

23.5
23.0

61.8%

22.5

22.16
50.0%

22.0
21.5

21.15

38.2%

21.0
20.5

23.6%

20.0
19.5
19.0

0.0%

18.80

18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0

ar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2014

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

For Private Circulation only

Sharekhan Ltd, Regd Add: 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East),
Mumbai 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000; Fax: 67481899; E-mail: publishing@sharekhan.com; Website: www.sharekhan.com; CIN:
U99999MH1995PLC087498. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos. BSE-Cash-INB011073351 ; F&O-INF011073351 ; NSE INB/INF231073330; CD - INE231073330
; MCX Stock Exchange: INB/INF-261073333 ; CD - INE261073330 ; United Stock Exchange: CD - INE271073350 ; DP-NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003 ; CDSL-INDP-CDSL-271-2004 ; PMS-INP000000662 ; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-10080 ; (MCX/
TCM/CORP/0425) ; NCDEX -00132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142); For any complaints email at igc@sharekhan.com; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk
Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Dos & Donts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com before investing.

Sharekhan

Bravehearts Best (Commodities)

Copper: bullish potential

KST (-3.72070)

15
10
5
0

Weekly close: $3.0700

-5
-10
-15
-20
HG COPPER CONTINUOUS 25000 LBS [COMEX] (3.12450, 3.13900, 3.00300, 3.07000, -0.05450)
4.9

Copper on the way down had broken several crucial

supports. However, the bulls have managed to absorb the
selling pressure. Consequently, the red metal has entered
a recovery mode. The price action seems to have taken
the form of an accumulation triangle pattern. Currently,
the price is moving up from the lower end of the pattern.
The weekly momentum indicator has given a fresh buy
signal. On the upside, the upper end of the pattern ie
$3.27 will be the key level to watch out for. The swings
low of $2.965 will be the key support on a closing basis.

4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4

3.27

3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0

2.965

2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6

Trend
Up

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

$2.965

$3.00, $2.98

$3.139, $3.20

$3.270

N D 2011

M J J

A S

O N D

2012

A MJ

Crude oil: flowing down

S O N

D 2013

A M J

J A

S O N D 2014

A M J J A

S O

MACD (-0.27988)

1
0

Weekly close: $99.76

-1
-2
LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX] (99.1700, 100.140, 99.1700, 99.7600, +0.34000)

114
113

NYMEX crude oil had formed a sharp pull-back. It retraced

61.8% of the previous fall. From that key Fibonacci level
the oil had started tumbling. It did a minor degree pullback after an impulse on the downside. Thus, it once again
reached near the 61.8% retracement mark. However, it
could not cross the high of $105.22 and from there the oil
has started a larger decline. The short-term momentum
indicators are in line with the fall. On the downside, the
price can test the recent low of $97.37. The subsequent
levels on the downside will be $93.40-$91.24.

Trend

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

Down

$105.22

$97.37, $95

$101, $102.35

$93.40,
$91.24

For Private Circulation only

Bravehearts Best
(Commodities)

100.0%

112
111
110
109
108

78.6%

107
106

105.22

105

61.8%

104
103

50.0%

102
101
100

38.2%

99
98
97

23.6%

96
95
94

93.40

93
92

0.0%

91.24

91
90
89
88

Augus t

Septem ber October

May 05, 2014

Novem ber

Decem ber

2014

February

March

April

May

Home

Sharekhan

Bravehearts Best (Commodities)

Jeera: at crucial juncture

55
50
45
40

Weekly close: Rs10,455

35
30
25
20

The adjoining is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera May 2014

contract. Last week jeera had faced some selling pressure
after a sharp run-up in the penultimate week. Last weeks
high of 10,835 now becomes a crucial resistance for the
agri-commodity in the weeks ahead. Traders should add
on to their long positions only above 10,835 for targets of
11,425 and 11,845. The stop-loss should be placed at the
swings low of 9665. On a lower degree time frame ie on
the daily chart we can observe that it is trading above
the 20- and 40-daily moving averages (10,428 and 10,128
respectively) which should act as crucial supports for the
agri-commodity in the coming trading sessions. The weekly
momentum indicator has a positive crossover which
supports our positive view on the agri-commodity.
Trend
Up

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Rs9,665

Rs10,428,
Rs10,128

Resistances

Target

Rs10,835,
Rs11,845

Rs10,845

-5

-10

-15

14500
14000
13500
13000
12500
12000

11845

11500

11425

11000

10500

10000
9665

9500

9000

July

August

September

October

November

December

2014

February

Soya bean: time to protect profits

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

KST
35
30
25
20
15

Weekly close: Rs4,737.5

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean

May contract. We can observe that last week soya bean
had closed positive once again. It has reached the upper
trend line of the upward sloping channel where it has faced
some selling pressure. However it has closed positive. We
have seen a sharp run-up in soya bean and now it has
reached a significant resistance. Thus, traders are advised
to tighten their stop loss to Rs4,509 (on a closing basis),
which is the 20-day simple moving average. The daily
momentum indicator has a positive crossover. The target
on the upside is placed at Rs5,064, which is the swings
high.
Trend
Up

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

Rs4,509

Rs4,509,
Rs4,371

Rs4,855,
Rs5,064

Rs5,064

For Private Circulation only

Bravehearts Best
(Commodities)

SOYBEAN QUINTAL - 1 MONTH, Parabolic SAR

5064

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

ar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

May 05, 2014

Nov

Dec

2013 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2014 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Home

Sharekhan

Bravehearts Best (Commodities)

For Private Circulation only

Visit us at www.sharekhan.com

Home

"This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed to and may contain
confidential and/or privileged material and is not for any type of circulation. Any review, retransmission, or any other use is prohibited. Kindly note that this document
does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. If you have received this
in error, please contact the sender and delete the material immediately from your computer/mailbox. The information contained herein is from sources believed
reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in, or options on, and buy
Mayinvestment
05, 2014 banking, or other services for, any company mentioned. Any
and sell
securities
referred to herein.
to time solicit Best
from, or4 perform
For
Private
Circulation
only We may from time Bravehearts
Home
comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect
those of Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd."
(Commodities)