Millennium Final NH Statewide Survey Results - April 8 2010

L O M B A R D O Consulting Group
New Hampshire
Statewide Survey
Prepared by: Lombardo Consulting Group, LLC
April 8, 2010
1
Survey Design and Methodology

Screening
Questions
• Survey commissioned by Millennium Gaming
NH Problems/
Concerns
Favorability/
Approval • Total n=400 New Hampshire registered voters
Gaming/Revenue
Pre-Test
Messaging/Anger
• Margin of error is +/- 4.85% at the 95% level
Points of confidence
Post-Test
Agree/Disagree • Interviews conducted March 31 – April 1, 2010

Representative
Behavior
• Random digit dialing telephone sample used
Demographics
2
Key Findings
3
The Big Picture

• Voters are strongly supportive of expanding legal gambling in
New Hampshire.
• Results are essentially in line with April 2009 survey results—and

even slightly more favorable.
– This suggests a “solidified” electorate on this issue.
• When given a list of eight options that could be used to generate

additional revenue for the state, expanding gambling receives far
and away the most support.
4
The Big Picture

• Voters are concerned about cuts to social services programs, and
would support expanded gambling as an alternative to these
types of cuts.
• Voters are more likely to support candidates who favor expanded

gambling… and would be more likely to oppose candidates who
come out against the idea.
• Voters are also concerned that Massachusetts could expand its

own gambling options, thereby potentially depriving New
Hampshire of significant revenue.
5
New Hampshire Problems & Concerns
6
NH voters are far more worried about the state

economy and fiscal issues than expanded gambling
Here are some issues facing the state of New Hampshire…

50% please tell me which ONE concerns you the most.
40%
36%
30%
20%
20% 18%
16%
10%
5%
3% 2%
0%
The economy Education Higher taxes The state Expanding Crime Something
funding budget deficit legalized else/Don’t
gambling know/Refused
April 2009: 3%
Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010 7
Sources of Revenue
8
Expanded gambling is clearly the most popular

source of additional revenue
Of the following options, which revenue source would you MOST favor as a means by which the state could
70%
generate additional resources to fund the current budget shortfall?
60%
52%
50%
40%
30%
20%
12% 12%
10% 8% 7% 5% 3%
1% 1%
0%
Instituting Expanding
And expanding gambling is increasingly more

attractive than the alternatives
Which of these options is closest to your opinion of what should be done about funding the state
of New Hampshire....*
Legalized gambling Sales tax Income Tax
Cut spending State-wide property tax
60%
52%
48%
50%
40%
40% 37%
30%
30%
22% 25%
21% 21%
22%
20%
21% 20% 12%
16% 19% 10% 19% 11%
10% 15% 15% 6%
11%
7% 6% 7%
0% 3%
Nov. 1999 June 2002 April 2008 Feb. 2009 April 2009 40269
Source: Nov. 1999 – Feb. 2009 Granite State Polls, LCG Surveys of 400 NH Registered Voters, April 28-30, 2009 & March 31 – April 1, 2010
*Minor difference in question wording for 2009/2010 10
Support for Expanded Legalized

Gambling
11
A majority of voters “strongly support” adding VGMs

to New Hampshire racetracks
Would you support or oppose the general idea of adding video gaming machines—such as video
poker or electronic slot machines—at New Hampshire racetracks?
80%
Net Support +46
70%
Total Support 72%
60%
51%
50%
40% Total Oppose 26%
30%
21% 20%
20%
10% 6%
2%
0%
Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Neither/DK

Support for adding VGMs has grown and intensified

significantly over the past five years
Would you support or oppose the general idea of adding video gaming machines—such as video
poker or electronic slot machines—at New Hampshire racetracks?
Support (net) Strongly support Oppose

80% 72%
69% 69%
70%
61% 60%
60% 56%
50% 51%
50% 44%
40% 37% 37%
30%
30%
30% 34%
26% 29%
20% 26% 26%
10%
0%
Oct. 2005 Feb. 2007 May 2008 Sept. 2008 April 2009 April 2010
Source: Oct. 2005, Feb. 2007 & May 2008 LCG Surveys (n=300/400 RVs), Sept. 2008 TargetPoint Survey (n=2,392 RVs), LCG Survey
of 400 NH Registered Voters, April 28-30, 2009 & March 31 – April 1, 2010 13
Majority support for VGMs among voters of all

political affiliations and regions
Would you support or oppose the general idea of adding video gaming machines—such as video poker or
electronic slot machines—at New Hampshire racetracks?
Support Oppose
100%
81%
78%
80% 74% 74% 74%
71% 70%
67%
60% 55%
43%
40%
32% 30%
25% 26%
23% 22%
19% 20%
20%
0%

Majority support for VGMs among voters of all

ages and income levels
Would you support or oppose the general idea of adding video gaming machines—such as video poker or
electronic slot machines—at New Hampshire racetracks?
Support Oppose
100%
83%
80% 75% 77%
72% 74%
69%
65%
60%
40%
29% 31%
27%
23% 23% 21%
20%
13%
0%
18 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64 65+ >$50k $50-100k $100k+

Three-quarters of voters support expanded

gambling to lessen cuts to social services
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
I would support the idea of expanding legalized gambling if doing so would lessen the impact of
dramatic cuts to social services programs.
80%
Total Support 75% Net Agree +51
70%
60%
55%
50%
40%
Total Oppose 24%

30%
20%
20% 16%
10% 8%
2%
0%
Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Neither/DK
Despite high favorability and approval of Gov. Lynch,

voters agree with expanding gambling by a 2-to-1 margin
Which of the following two positions do you agree with more?
80%
70% 64%
60%
50%
40%
31%
30%
20%
10% 5%
0%
The Governor, who says that Supporters of expanded legalized Neither/Both/Don’t
there is no need for expanded gambling, who say that the only way know
legalized gambling because he can to address the state’s budget
manage the state’s budget issues—and avoid having to make
problems through additional cuts drastic cuts to services—is through
generating more revenue through
expanded gambling
Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010. Statement choices were rotated. 17
Two-thirds of voters feel a sense of urgency to

expand legalized gaming
Which of the following two positions do you agree with more?
80%
70% 67%
60%
50%
40%
30% 26%
20%
10%
8%
0%
Some people say “no” to Other people say that the time to act Neither/Both/Don’t
expanded gaming because we on expanded gaming is now because know
shouldn't do anything in haste the state has already begun making
with respect to the budget dramatic cuts to critical social
services programs
Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010. Statement choices were rotated. 18
Concern about Massachusetts
19
Concern about Massachusetts

The Governor and other elected officials in Massachusetts are all in favor of expanding legalized gambling in
their state. If this happens, New Hampshire will lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue each year.
Knowing this, would you be more or less likely to support expanding legalized gambling in New Hampshire?
80% Net Likelihood +49
70% Total More Likely to Support 70%
60%
49%
50%
40% Total More Likely to Oppose 21%
30%
21%
20%
13%
8% 9%
10%
0%
Much more likely to Somewhat more likely Somewhat more likely Much more likely to Neither/DK/Refused
support to support to oppose oppose
Elected Official Behavior
21
Supporting VGMs helps candidates

If you knew a candidate for the New Hampshire State Senate or House of Representatives had supported
adding video gaming machines at racetracks, would you be…
Net Likelihood +41

60% Total More Likely to Support 56%
50%
40%
32%
30% 28%
24%
20% Total More Likely to Oppose 15%
11%
10%
4%
0%
Much more likely to Somewhat more likely Somewhat more likely Much more likely to No effect/DK/Refused
-10% support to support to oppose oppose
Source: LCG Survey of NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010. Question asked of half the sample, n=200 22
Opposing VGMs hurts candidates

If you knew a candidate for the New Hampshire State Senate or House of Representatives had opposed
adding video gaming machines at racetracks, would you be…
Net Likelihood -19

50%
Total More Likely to Oppose 48%
40%
30% Total More Likely to Support 29% 29%
23%
20%
19%
16%
13%
10%
0%
Much more likely to Somewhat more likely Somewhat more likely Much more likely to No effect/DK/Refused
support to support to oppose oppose
Source: LCG Survey of NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010. Question asked of half the sample, n=200 23
Appendix
24
Demographics
Gender
Male 48%
<$50K 23%
Income
Female 52%
$50K-$100K 27%
$100K+ 34%
18 - 34 24%
35 - 49 25%
Age
50 - 64 Republican 22%
Affiliation
27%
Political
65+ 19% Independent 58%
Democrat 20%
White 93%
Ethnicity
African-American 2% Great North 14%

Hispanic 1% Southwestern 9%
Other 4% Central/Lakes 14%
Region
Merrimack County 12%
Education
HS Grad or less 25%

Rockingham County 24%
Less than 4-year… 23%
Hillsborough County 29%
College + 52%

New Hampshire
Statewide Survey
Prepared by: Lombardo Consulting Group, LLC
April 8, 2010
26

Millennium Final NH Statewide Survey Results - April 8 2010

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L O M B A R D O Consulting Group

Survey Design and Methodology

Agree/Disagree • Interviews conducted March 31 – April 1, 2010

The Big Picture

• Results are essentially in line with April 2009 survey results—and

– This suggests a “solidified” electorate on this issue.

• When given a list of eight options that could be used to generate

The Big Picture

• Voters are more likely to support candidates who favor expanded

• Voters are also concerned that Massachusetts could expand its

New Hampshire Problems & Concerns

NH voters are far more worried about the state

Here are some issues facing the state of New Hampshire…

Expanded gambling is clearly the most popular

And expanding gambling is increasingly more

Support for Expanded Legalized

A majority of voters “strongly support” adding VGMs

40% Total Oppose 26%

Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010 12

Support for adding VGMs has grown and intensified

Support (net) Strongly support Oppose

Majority support for VGMs among voters of all

Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010 14

Majority support for VGMs among voters of all

Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010 15

Three-quarters of voters support expanded

Total Oppose 24%

Despite high favorability and approval of Gov. Lynch,

Two-thirds of voters feel a sense of urgency to

Concern about Massachusetts

Concern about Massachusetts

80% Net Likelihood +49

70% Total More Likely to Support 70%

40% Total More Likely to Oppose 21%

Elected Official Behavior

Supporting VGMs helps candidates

Net Likelihood +41

Opposing VGMs hurts candidates

Net Likelihood -19

30% Total More Likely to Support 29% 29%

African-American 2% Great North 14%

HS Grad or less 25%

Source: LCG Survey of 400 NH Registered Voters, March 31 – April 1, 2010 25

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