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Culture Documents
Gonzales Maryland Poll January 2016
Gonzales Maryland Poll January 2016
www.gonzalesresearch.com
Maryland Poll
Governor Hogan Job Approval
Direction of State
U.S. Senate Democratic primary
Democratic Presidential primary
GOP Presidential primary
January 2016
(Office)
(Cell)
443-458-5034
410-258-7003
Page 1
Methodology
Page 2
Number
369
449
818
Percent
45.1 %
54.9 %
100.0 %
GENDER
Male
Female
Total
Number
393
426
819
Percent
48.0 %
52.0 %
100.0 %
PARTY REGISTRATION
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Total
Number
451
253
115
819
Percent
55.1 %
30.9 %
14.0 %
100.0 %
RACE
White
African-American
Other/Refused
Total
Number
602
181
36
819
Percent
73.5 %
22.1 %
4.4 %
100.0 %
REGION
Eastern Sh/So MD
Baltimore City
Baltimore Suburbs
Washington Suburbs
Western MD
Total
Number
99
72
301
256
91
819
Percent
12.1 %
8.8 %
36.8 %
31.3 %
11.1 %
100.0 %
Baltimore City
Baltimore City
Baltimore
Suburbs
Anne Arundel Co.
Baltimore Co.
Harford Co.
Howard Co.
Washington
Suburbs
Western
Maryland
Montgomery Co.
Allegany Co.
Prince Georges Co. Carroll Co.
Charles Co.
Frederick Co.
Garrett Co.
Washington Co.
Page 3
Number
168
234
402
Percent
41.8 %
58.2 %
100.0 %
RACE
White
African-American
Other/Refused
Total
Number
206
168
28
402
Percent
51.2 %
41.8 %
7.0 %
100.0 %
REGION
Baltimore Suburbs
Baltimore City
PG County
Montgomery County
Rest of State
Total
Number
134
62
76
75
55
402
Percent
33.3 %
15.4 %
18.9 %
18.7 %
13.7 %
100.0 %
Baltimore
City
Prince Georges
County
Montgomery
County
Baltimore City
Montgomery Co.
Rest of State
Allegany Co.
Calvert Co.
Caroline Co.
Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.
Dorchester Co.
Frederick Co.
Garrett Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Annes Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Marys Co.
Talbot Co.
Somerset Co.
Washington Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.
Page 4
Summary
Governor Larry Hogan Job Approval
After 14 months in office, Governor Larry Hogan has an extremely impressive job approval
rating among Free State voters.
Statewide, 67% of Maryland voters approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor (40%
strongly approve and 27% somewhat approve), while 19% disapprove (11% strongly
disapprove and 8% somewhat disapprove), with 14% offering no opinion.
Figure 1 Governor Larry Hogan Job Approval by Party
94%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
78%
49%
Approve
Disapprove
31%
8%
3%
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
To put these results into perspective, former GOP Governor Bob Ehrlichs high-water mark
during his 4-year tenure was August of 2003, when 57% of voters approved of the job he was
doing as governor and 30% disapproved.
To put them into further perspective, Democratic Governor Martins OMalleys best showing
came in January of 2011, when 58% of voters approved and 30% disapproved.
Job Rating
Approve
Disapprove
Hogan
January 2016
67%
19%
OMalley
January 2011
58%
30%
Ehrlich
August 2003
57%
30%
Page 5
Wrong Track
Democrats
Republicans
Unaffiliated
52%
73%
66%
28%
14%
15%
Male
Female
64%
57%
18%
26%
White
African-American
64%
48%
20%
30%
How do voter attitudes about the Direction of State relate to perceptions of Hogan?
JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
Approve
Approve
Disapprove Disapprove
No answer
DIRECTION OF STATE
Right Direction
284
57.5%
139
28.1%
15
3.0%
11
2.2%
45
9.1%
Wrong Track
30
16.7%
33
18.3%
40
22.2%
60
33.3%
17
9.4%
No answer
16
11.0%
47
32.4%
11
7.6%
21
14.5%
50
34.5%
Page 6
Edwards
White
African-American
55%
15%
15%
65%
Baltimore Suburbs
Baltimore City
P.G. County
Montgomery County
Rest of State
39%
24%
18%
60%
49%
23%
50%
68%
24%
24%
Page 7
Edwards grassroots strength and progressive group endorsements carry the day?
The answer to these questions is what campaigns are for and why elections are held.
Page 8
On the Republican side, Donald Trump leads with 32%, followed by Ted Cruz (15%), Marco
Rubio (14%), Ben Carson (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and Jeb Bush (4%).
Interestingly, Trump does nearly 2 times better with GOP men than he does with Republican
women.
Page 9
Number
549
158
112
819
Percent
67.0 %
19.3 %
13.7 %
100.0 %
Number
330
219
66
92
112
819
Percent
40.3 %
26.7 %
8.1 %
11.2 %
13.7 %
100.0 %
N=819
PARTY REGISTRATION
Democrat
94
20.8%
127
28.2%
56
12.4%
84
18.6%
90
20.0%
Republican
192
75.9%
46
18.2%
6
2.4%
3
1.2%
6
2.4%
Independent
44
38.3%
46
40.0%
4
3.5%
5
4.3%
16
13.9%
166
42.2%
109
27.7%
31
7.9%
24
6.1%
63
16.0%
Female
164
38.5%
110
25.8%
35
8.2%
68
16.0%
49
11.5%
293
48.7%
158
26.2%
43
7.1%
42
7.0%
66
11.0%
African-American
20
11.0%
52
28.7%
20
11.0%
48
26.5%
41
22.7%
Page 10
N=819
Number
494
180
145
819
Percent
60.3 %
22.0 %
17.7 %
100.0 %
DIRECTION OF STATE
Right
Wrong
Direction
Track
No answer
PARTY REGISTRATION
Democrat
233
51.7%
128
28.4%
90
20.0%
Republican
185
73.1%
35
13.8%
33
13.0%
Independent
76
66.1%
17
14.8%
22
19.1%
DIRECTION OF STATE
Right
Wrong
Direction
Track
No answer
GENDER
Male
253
64.4%
71
18.1%
69
17.6%
Female
241
56.6%
109
25.6%
76
17.8%
DIRECTION OF STATE
Right
Wrong
Direction
Track
No answer
RACE
White
385
64.0%
120
19.9%
97
16.1%
African-American
86
47.5%
55
30.4%
40
22.1%
Page 11
Number
145
153
7
97
402
Percent
36.1 %
38.1 %
1.7 %
24.1 %
100.0 %
N=402
RACE
White
31
15.0%
113
54.9%
5
2.4%
57
27.7%
African-American
109
64.9%
25
14.9%
1
0.6%
33
19.6%
Other/Refused
5
17.9%
15
53.6%
1
3.6%
7
25.0%
51
30.4%
75
44.6%
3
1.8%
39
23.2%
Women
94
40.2%
78
33.3%
4
1.7%
58
24.8%
Page 12
31
23.1%
52
38.8%
1
0.7%
50
37.3%
Baltimore City
31
50.0%
15
24.2%
2
3.2%
14
22.6%
PG County
52
68.4%
14
18.4%
2
2.6%
8
10.5%
Montgomery County
18
24.0%
45
60.0%
1
1.3%
11
14.7%
Rest of State
13
23.6%
27
49.1%
1
1.8%
14
25.5%
Page 13
N=402
Number
162
18
109
113
402
Percent
40.3 %
4.5 %
27.1 %
28.1 %
100.0 %
RACE
White
52
25.2%
4
1.9%
88
42.7%
62
30.1%
African-American
103
61.3%
14
8.3%
10
6.0%
41
24.4%
Other/Refused
7
25.0%
0
0.0%
11
39.3%
10
35.7%
54
32.1%
8
4.8%
55
32.7%
51
30.4%
Women
108
46.2%
10
4.3%
54
23.1%
62
26.5%
Page 14
Men
Number
96
45
41
28
24
12
17
38
301
Women
Percent
31.9 %
15.0 %
13.6 %
9.3 %
8.0 %
4.0 %
5.6 %
12.6 %
100.0 %
Number
63
25
20
17
9
2
6
12
154
Percent
40.9 %
16.2 %
13.0 %
11.0 %
5.8 %
1.3 %
3.9 %
7.8 %
100.0 %
Number
33
21
20
19
10
7
11
26
147
Percent
22.4 %
14.3 %
13.6 %
12.9 %
6.8 %
4.8 %
7.5 %
17.7 %
100.0 %
Page 15