Neg Blocks - Jan 16 PF

Sources to Indict
RUSSIA DIRECT
Jack Shafer. Slate. 2007.
<http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/press_box/2007/08/hail_to_t
he_ret urn_of_motherlandprotecting_propaganda.html>
Soviet propaganda hit the skids during the Gorbachev era, and as the empire
broke up, its propaganda essentially vanished. But the heavy handed
purveyors of party line orthodoxy and nationalist cant have returned with the
rise of President Vladimir Putin, and a demonstration of this lost art's
resurgence can be found in a 10 page advertising supplement to today's
(Aug. 30) Washington Post, titled "Russia: Beyond the Headlines." (It can also
be viewed on the newspaper's Web site.) Produced by Rossiyskaya Gazeta,
the official Russian government newspaper, the section mimics the look and
feel of a hometown paper, with news, an op-ed section, a sports feature
(Maria Sharapova), two business pages, an entertainment page, and even a
recipe for "Salad Oliver." But beneath the shattered syntax of these laughable
pieces beats the bloody red heart of the tone deaf Soviet propagandist.
RUSSIA TODAY
John OSullivan. The Spectator. 2014.
<http://www.spectator.co.uk/2014/12/theOtruthO
aboutOrussiaOtodayOisOthatOitOisOputinsOmouthpiece/>
The difference between real journalism and Russia Today It looks like a news
channel. It talks like a news channel. It says whatever Putin wants [...] Thats
par for RTs course today. It began somewhat differently in 2004 as an
international news network aiming to be similar to the BBC or CNN, with the
insertion of local stories showing Russia in a good light. That was acceptably
defensive (and inoffensive) PR, but it buttered no parsnips. Besides, the Putin
regime was embarking on a more aggressive foreign policy, and as part of
Putins information apparatus, RT was inevitably dragged along in its wake.
The turning point is generally agreed to have occurred in 2008, when Russia
provoked the Georgian government into an attempt to recover its lost
province of Ossetia and promptly responded with an invasion and occupation
of parts of Georgia. RT gave Putin cover with a jingoistic campaign that
denounced the Georgians as genocidal. That campaign in turn now looks like
a dry run for RTs reporting and commentary on the Ukrainian crisis, which
depicted the Kiev government as bloodthirsty neo fascists intent on ethnic
cleansing etc. while depicting actual bloodthirsty neoBfascists (and Russian
soldiers) in eastern Ukraine as peaceBminded democrats. [...] People are
beginning to agree with Remnick that the Russian point of view is generally
Putins point of view. Now the British regulator Ofcom has reached the same
conclusion: last month it accused RT of serious breaches of due impartiality
and threatened sanctions against it. Margarita Simonyan, RTs
editorOinOchief, gave a nastily brilliant RT response: We accept the decision
of Ofcom to have held, in effect, that a governments viewpoint must always
be reflected and given due weight when it is criticised in the reporting of
major political controversies. Those like me who are uncomfortable with
official regulation of the media but nonetheless see RT as an example of
Putins weaponisation of information (as Pomerantsev and Michael Weiss
name it in a recent report for the Institute of Modern Russia) need not
despair. Networks and newspapers have a natural incentive to subject RT to
sharp criticism as it is. Thats already happening and fortunately in the
Guardian, which has influence with RTs antiOestablishment and
antiOAmerican audience. Young journalists are already finding that a spell at
RT is a handicap in getting jobs elsewhere. And though lying sometimes
works, repeated lying however darkly brilliant is a recipe for lost viewers
and listeners. The time will come when RT has to confine its clever inventions
to a captive market: Russians.
RUSSIA TO DEPLOY 50,000

TROOPS TO UKRAINE
Mac Slavo. InfoWars. 2015.

<http://www.infowars.com/reportOallOoutOwarOasOrussiaO
preparesOtoOdeployO50000OtroopsOtoOukraineOcitiesOburningOhundredsO
dead/>
Sources on twitter are confirming that Russian T90OA tanks are beginning to
move into the Ukraine and heading for the city of Donetsk to reinforce rebel
held (proORussian) positions.
Intense shelling from multiple positions started in #Donetsk South of
#Donetsk very heavy combat, I see lots of explosions there, very scary
Intense shelling started also in #Starohnativka. #Mariupol can hear heavy
shelling from the east. Intensity of Ukrainian shellings on #Putilovka and
#Spartak is increasing! Ukrainian shellings on #Sahanka and #Oktyabr (with
MRLS Grad)! East of #Mariupol No Confirmation
I can find no confirmation anywhere else.
NEG Cards
US Sanctions
1.Harms EU
A. Sanctions reduce tradeharms the European econ
and transatlantic solidarity
de Galbert 15A Year of Sanctions against RussiaNow What? A European Assessment of the Outcome and Future of Russia Sanctions Simond de Galbert
A Report of the CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) Europe Program October 2015 [Simond de Galbert is a visiting fellow with the Europe Program at CSIS
and a French diplomat on detail. His primary research interests are European and transatlantic security, strategic affairs, and sanctions. Prior to joining CSIS, he served for
several years in the French Ministry for Foreign Affairs, where he worked on Middle East nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear-related sanctions issues. He was an expert in
the French negotiating team to the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran from 2011 to 2014. He graduated from the French National School for Administration and Sciences Po
Paris.]
sanctions cost Russia a lot, they are also impacting European economies significantly.
Europe-Russia tradeabout 285 billion in 2014 and 326 billion in 2013 in
two-way tradeis expected to decline sharply in 2015: a 30 percent decline would be in line with the
data available for the first six months of the year. Europe-Russia trade could therefore shrink by
about 80 billion in 2015 and cost Europe about 30 billion in lost exports to
Even as
Russia. Those amounts are significantly higher than what Iran sanctions cost the European economy in the past decade, and markedly greater
This could complicate the support for sanctions

over time in Europe. U.S. policymakers should acknowledge the price to their European partners; transatlantic
solidarity on sanctions would be undermined if Europeans perceived that the
United States was outsourcing to its allies the lions share of the cost of
handling the crisis.
than the cost to the U.S. economy of Russia sanctions.
2.Decreases Russia public opinion

A. Polls proveRussian public believes US sanctions
negatively impact their economy
de Galbert 15A Year of Sanctions against RussiaNow What? A European Assessment of the Outcome and Future of Russia
Sanctions Simond de Galbert A Report of the CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) Europe Program October 2015 [Simond de
Galbert is a visiting fellow with the Europe Program at CSIS and a French diplomat on detail. His primary research interests are European and
transatlantic security, strategic affairs, and sanctions. Prior to joining CSIS, he served for several years in the French Ministry for Foreign
Affairs, where he worked on Middle East nuclear nonproliferation and nuclear-related sanctions issues. He was an expert in the French
negotiating team to the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran from 2011 to 2014. He graduated from the French National School for Administration and
Sciences Po Paris.]
Recent data released by the Pew Research

on a survey conducted in Russia in early 2015, suggests that 45
percent of those polled believe sanctions to have a major effect on the
Russian economy, and 33 percent blame Western sanctions for Russias
economic struggles (33 percent blame falling oil prices, while only 25 percent believe current government policies to be
responsible for the current economic situation). In addition, 73 percent acknowledge that Russias
economic situation is worsening, up from 44 percent who held that view a
year ago.
The Russian public recognizes the economic impact sanctions are having in Russia.
Center,18 built
B. Polls proveRussians do not blame their government

for economic and military harms
Sciences Po Paris.]
But instead of turning Russians against their governments policy in Ukraine, sanctions have not prevented them from supporting President
The 2015 Pew Research Center data indicates that 88 percent in

Russia have confidence in President Putin to do the right thing regarding
world affairs, while only 37 percent acknowledge that his handling of the
Ukraine crisis had led to worsening international opinion of Russia. Even more
strikingly, 50 percent believe that Western countries are most to blame for the
violence in eastern Ukraine, while a mere 4 percent blame pro-Russian
separatists in Ukraine, and only 2 percent blame Russia itself for the crisis .
Altogether, these polls indicate that most Russians do not hold their government responsible
for the crisis unfolding in Ukraine, instead blaming the West . Moreover, the Russian
Putin even more.
government uses sanctions as a scapegoat for Russias current economic struggles, including those that derive from its poor management.
3.China fill-in solves

A. Co-op with China and other countries turns sanction
impacts on the economy
Sciences Po Paris.]
By pointing to the use of the Eurasian Economic Union and more intensive
cooperation with China, sanctions skeptics rightly underline Russian efforts to
better protect itself against external economic pressure from the West by
diversifying partnerships. A good example of this strategy was the October
2014 signing of 38 agreements between Russia and China in different areas
of cooperation. One of these agreements was made between both countries central banks to create
a three-year yuan-ruble swap mechanism that could give Russia more
flexibility to access international financing and escape liquidity shortage .33
Similar efforts may be undergoing to reduce Russias vulnerabilities to Western institutions and
generally speaking to Western economic warfare, such as the creation by the BRICS
(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) group of a New Development
Bank (NDB),34 with capital of $100 billion, aimed at financing investments. Russian companies could benefit from loans made by the
NDB, although no formal projects have been announced for now. Likewise, the Chinese ability to provide Russia with sufficiently advanced
technology and equipment in the energy sector remains an open question, as China hasnt been able yet to do so for Iran, despite Iranian
urgent needs in modernizing oil production technologies.
China and Russia
1. Putin Bets On Asian Pivot Lift Russias

Flagging Far East.
CNBC. 2015
Web. Accessed December 11,
2015.http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/05/battered-by-sanctions-cheap-oil-putinpins-russias-hopes-on-china.html
Some Russians fret over their country's increased economic reliance on China
-- a process encouraged by the Western sanctions -- but there was no sign of
any such reservations at the Vladivostok forum. " Chinese counterparts ... are
interested in investments, in organising joint companies - for them this region
is of huge interest," Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told
the state Rossiya-24 news channel. And before his departure, CNPC's Yilin
told reporters that developing ties with Russia was a priority for Beijing
because of the desire to diversify its sources of energy. "China is importing
crude oil from other countries, usually via sea, while here we can import oil
by land. This is good protection for the security of our country's crude oil
imports." The Russian government has been passing laws to try to attract
investors to the area and has designated Vladivostok a free port, a move that
eases its visa regime and is aimed at increasing trade and tourism.
China has already had interest in increasing economic ties with Russia, and
sanctions are encouraging Russia to more aggressively pursue that
partnership.
Russia seeking out new non-Western partners is very significant, as every economic
partnership Russia creates with one of those countries is a lost opportunity for the
West.
Backlash/Hurts Western trade
1.Russia is issuing trade embargos in

response, which hurt western powers.
BBC 2014
How Far Do EU-US Sanctions on Russia Go? - BBC News." BBC News. N.p., 15
Sept.
2014. Web. 01 Dec. 2015. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe28400218>.
Food exporters are already facing losses after Russia announced an

immediate embargo on a wide range of food imported from the EU, US,
Norway, Canada and Australia. It was announced as a response to the
Western sanctions. Fresh fruit and vegetables, meat, dairy produce and
various other foods are affected by the Russian ban, which will last at least a
year.
2.The EU is missing out on a massive market

due to embargo responses from Russia.
BBC 2014
"Russia Hits West with Food Import Ban in Sanctions Row - BBC News." BBC
News.
N.p., 7 Aug. 2014. Web. 01 Dec. 2015.
<http://www.bbc.com/news/worldeurope28687172>.
In addition to the food imports embargo, Russia is banning Ukrainian airlines

from transit across its territory, Mr Medvedev said in televised comments to
the government. The Russian government is also considering banning transit
flights for EU and US airlines in retaliation for sanctions over Ukraine, he said.
Barring airlines from Siberian airspace would significantly increase costs and
flying time for many jets bound for Asian destinations . EU food exports to
Russia last year were worth 11.8bn euros (9bn; $15.8bn) while US food
exports to Russia were worth 972m euros (772m; $1.3bn). Russia was the
EU's second-biggest market for food exports (10% of total), after the US
(13%).
3.The Russian citizens blame the west for

their hardship, creating anti-western
sentiments.
Birnbaum 15
Birnbaum, Michael. "A Year into a Conflict with Russia, Are Sanctions
Working?" Washington Post. The Washington Post, 27 Mar. 2015. Web. 01
Dec. 2015. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-year-into-aconflict-withrussia- are-sanctions-working/2015/03/26/45ec04b2-c73c-11e4bea5- b893e7ac3fb3_story.html>.
When it comes to inflicting economic pain on Russia, the Kremlin may be

doing a better job than Western sanctions. Just dont tell that to the Russian
people, who overwhelmingly blame the West for a deepening recession that
has parts of central Moscow starting to look like a ghost town. Prices are
soaring. The ruble is dropping. And Russian living standards are falling a year
after the annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
Hurting Civilians/Western Rights

1.
RUSSIA HAS SEEN SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC

IMPACT FROM THE SANCTIONS-
Nemtsova '15
Anna; Putin Propagandists: Russia's Economy Is Just Fine; The Daily Beast; 9
July 2015; Gale Group Databases
When the European Union extended economic sanctions on Russia until
January 31, 2016, it caused little kerfuffle among pro-Kremlin mouthpieces.
The decision made in Luxembourg by EU foreign ministers, premised on
Russia's war against Ukraine, elicited a stock reply from Moscow: "Your
sanctions are a big mistake and it's you who will suffer from them."
Yet outside the Kremlin wall, Russians have begun to suffer from an acute
economic crisis. Recent surveys by the Russian Public Opinion Research
Center, a Kremlin-employed pollster, showed more than 70 percent of
Russians admitting that their wallets have shrunk. Unemployment has
increased by 14 percent.
2. Various metrics show that the Russian

economy is seeing significant impacts from
sanctions
- Nesvetailova 15
Nesvetailova, Anastasia. [Director, City Political Economy Research Centre]
Why Sanctions Against Putin arent Working. Newsweek. 2015. Web.
Accessed December 3, 2015. http://www.newsweek.com/why-sanctionsagainst-putin-arent-working-341748
The internal economic crisis in Russia, in turn, is calculated to generate two
effects. First, it will prove too costly for the Kremlin to continue military
involvement in Ukraine. Second, falling incomes and rising inflation will also
weaken popular support for Putin and his rule and may bring about a change
of policy (or leadership) in Moscow. A look at the state of Russias economy
indicates that Western sanctions are having their desired effect. Since April
2014, the ruble has lost nearly half of its value; net capital flight out of the
country has doubled, reaching $151 billion in 2014; economic growth has
slowed down to 0.6 percent in late 2014at its lowest since the global
financial crisis of 2009. In January 2015, Russias gross domestic product
contracted by 1.4 percent, with forecasts predicting a significant contraction
of GDP in 2015.
3.As the economy crumbles and jobs are

lost, Russian poverty has increased
substantially since the sanctions have been
put in place.
Wheatley 15
Mike Wheatley, xx-xx-xxxx, "Poverty Rate in Russia Jumps to 16%," No Publication, http://russiainsider.com/en/business/poverty-rate-russia-jumps-16/ri7961
The number of Russians with incomes below the poverty line increased by
3.1 million in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the same period of the
previous year. In total, some 22.9 million Russians now have incomes below
the subsistence level, said the Federal State Statistics Service Rosstat on
Thursday. Percentage-wise, that means 15.9 percent of Russians are now
living below the poverty line, compared to 13.8 percent in quarter one of
2014. Rosstat's information excludes data from the Crimea and Sevastopol,
Interfax reported.
4.Poverty undermines human rights, a western

interest.
UN 06
United Nations Web Services Section, xx-xx-xxxx, "Human Rights Day 2006," No Publication,
http://www.un.org./en/events/humanrightsday/2006/overview.shtml
Poverty is a cause and a product of human rights violations. It is this

double edge that makes poverty probably the gravest human rights challenge
in the world. The links between human rights and poverty should be obvious:
People whose rights are denied -- victims of discrimination or persecution, for
example -- are more likely to be poor. Generally they find it harder or
impossible to participate in the labour market and have little or no access to
basic services and resources. Meanwhile, the poor in many societies
cannot enjoy their rights to education, health and housing simply
because they cannot afford them. And poverty affects all human
rights: for example, low income can prevent people from accessing
education -- an economic and social right -- which in turn inhibits
their participation in public life -- a civil and political right -- and
their ability to influence policies affecting them.
Yet, poverty is still rarely seen thought the lens of human rights. Rather it is
often perceived as tragic but inevitable, and even as the responsibility of
those who suffer it. At best those living in poverty -- countries and individuals
-- are portrayed as unfortunate, at worst as lazy and undeserving.
The reality is different. Many ingredients go into making poverty, but factors
like discrimination, unequal access to resources, and social and cultural
stigmatization have always characterized it. These factors have another
name: the denial of human rights and human dignity. Whats more, these are
factors governments and those in a position of authority can, indeed are
obliged to, do something about. They have committed to it by
overwhelmingly accepting a number of human rights treaties and by signing
on to the international consensus to make poverty history, through the
Millennium Declaration and the Millennium Development Goals, as well as
most recently the 2005 World Summit Outcome. The realization of human
rights including the fight against poverty -- is a duty, not a mere aspiration.
5.The Pentagon is hurt by the lack of defense

trading.
Nossel 15
NOSSEL, SUZANNE. "Its Time to Kill the Feel-Good Myth of Sanctions."
Foreign Policy. N.p., 9 June 2015. Web. 04 Dec. 2015.
<http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/09/its-time-to-kill-the-feel-good-mythofsanctions- russia-iran/>.
And last week, the Pentagon turned to Congress to plead for the easing of
sanctions that bar the import of Russian rockets essential to the most
technologically advanced U.S. defense and intelligence programs .
Diplomatically, while Russia may be left out of the G-7, it remains part of
crucial international forums including the sixparty talks to end Irans nuclear
program. While Russia is not in the international coalition fighting the Islamic
State, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Moscow in late May to ask
Putin to get more involved.
No impact on Econ.
1.Sanctions have just given Russia and excuse

to follow through with localization efforts they
had already begun.
Weafer 15
Weafer, Chris. "How Much Have Sanctions Really Hurt Russia? | Opinion." The
Moscow Times. N.p., 7 July 2015. Web. 01 Dec. 2015.
<http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/how-much-havesanctionsreally- hurt-russia/525228.html>.
What else can we see as a consequence or even a lasting legacy of

sanctions? Russia has a new slogan, "import substitution," or perhaps a new
buzzword, "localization." Domestic producers have gained from both the
weaker ruble and the ban on some food imports since late last year. We can
see that in the relatively good manufacturing and agriculture sector data for
the past five months and the collapse in the value of imports, which are down
by over 25 percent compared to this time last year. That the Kremlin
embraced import substitution as a recovery strategy so quickly is no surprise.
President Vladimir Putin has been complaining about the high level of
imported food, medicines and basic machinery ever since the disastrous
harvest in 2010. Little has actually changed since then. To that extent the
opportunity to ban some food imports and make local manufacturing a
national cause was very welcome . But here also the import ban was not
solely as a result of sanctions. Recall, for example, that Russia placed an
import ban on pork from some countries in January last year and has been
regularly banning some food items for years. The stated reasons have usually
been a veterinary or sanitation issue but, in fact, it was part of an effort to try
and force investment into domestic production.
Oil Instability
1.Many countries rely very heavily on Russia

for gas and oil supplies.
BBC 14
"How Far Do EU-US Sanctions on Russia Go? - BBC News." BBC News. N.p., 15
Sept. 2014. Web. 01 Dec. 2015. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe28400218>.
Some EU countries will feel the impact more than others. Russia has become
a booming market for Western consumer goods in the past decad e. Germany
has appeared especially reluctant to ratchet up sanctions. That is not
surprising, as German exports to Russia totaled 38bn euros (30bn; $51bn) in
2013 - the highest in the EU. More importantly , Germany gets more than 30%
of its oil and gas from Russia. Italy is also highly dependent on Russian
energy and some of Russia's former Soviet bloc neighbors rely 100% on its
gas deliveries.
Europes Economy
1.Europes economy is dependent on Russia

Carafano et al,
15
James
December 20
, The Regime of Vladimir Putin, Heritage, December 2015,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/12/us-comprehensive-strategy-toward-russia DOA: 1-4-16 [James Jay Carafano, PhD, is Vice
President for the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy and E. W. Richardson Fellow at The
Heritage Foundation. Ted R. Bromund, PhD, is Senior Research Fellow in AngloAmerican Relations in the Margaret Thatcher Center for
Freedom, of the Davis Institute. Dean Cheng is a Senior Research Fellow for Chinese Political and Security Affairs in the Asian Studies Center, of
the Davis Institute. Luke Coffey is Margaret Thatcher Fellow in the Thatcher Center. Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the
Asian Studies Center. Helle C. Dale is Senior Fellow for Public Diplomacy in the Davis Institute. Michaela Dodge is Senior Policy Analyst for
Defense and Strategic Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy, of the Davis Institute. David
Inserra is a Research Associate for Homeland Security and Cyber Security in the Allison Center. Bruce Klingner is Senior Research Fellow for
Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center. Daniel Kochis is a Research Associate in the Thatcher Center. Ryan Olson is a former Research
Associate in the Center for Trade and Economics, of the Institute for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, at The Heritage Foundation. James
Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center. Ana Quintana is a Policy Analyst for Latin America and the
Western Hemisphere in the Allison Center. Bryan Riley is Jay Van Andel Senior Analyst in Trade Policy in the Center for Trade and Economics.
Brian Slattery is a Policy Analyst for Defense Studies in the Allison Center. William T. Wilson, PhD, is Senior Research Fellow in the Asian Studies
Center.]
Russia is the EUs third largest trading partner while the EU is Russias largest
trading partner. Europe, including Turkey, receives most of Russias exports of
crude oil products as well as virtually all its natural gas exports. Russian
imports have grown enormously over the past decade. Valued at $45 billion in
2000, they had risen to $341 billion in 2013. At least 6,000 German
companies and 300,000 jobs depend on Russia. With the eurozone economy
already weak, deteriorating trade with Russia is yet another headwind, albeit
a modest one, the eurozone must surmount.
Syria
1.Russia will continue a hardline role in

Syria and continue to oppose US interests
there while the US maintains sanctions in
support of the Ukraine
Stratfor, January 5, 2016, The US could spoil Russia and Ukraines delicate
compromise, https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical- diary/us-could-spoilrussia-and-ukraines-delicate-compromise DOA: 1-5-16
But the big player that has been silent on the issue since the extension was
agreed upon is the United States. In the weeks before the Normandy Four
meeting, the United States deployed Secretary of State John Kerry to Russia
to negotiate with his counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and Russian President
Vladimir Putin on several issues. Washington was pushing for concessions on
Syria, and some positive notes came out of the marathon meetings. However,
any major concession from Russia on Syria would come at a steep price:
Washington backing off its support for Kiev. However, it does not appear that
the United States is ready to cave to Russia's demands. In fact, Washington
seems intent on maintaining economic pressure on Moscow: The United
States expanded its sanctions on Russia days before the Normandy Four
meeting.
Russia-US Relations
1.Lifting sanctions would improve relations

between the West & Russia
Robin Niblett is the director of the think tank Chatham House.1-4-16, BBC,
What are the Big Challenges Facing Europe? http://www.bbc.com/news/uk35125052 DOA : 1-5-16
President Putin may hope that his participation in operations against IS in
Syria in 2016 will lead Western leaders to ease the economic sanctions that
they imposed on Russia in the summer of 2014, at the height of the conflict in
eastern Ukraine. This would ease the growing stand-off between Russia, the
US and its Nato allies, which has been a major destabilising factor in
international affairs in the past 18 months. It seems unlikely that EU
sanctions linked to eastern Ukraine will be lifted without full implementation
of the Minsk II agreement (including the Ukrainian government regaining
control of the border between the Donbass and Russia, which remains a
distant prospect). However, both sides appear to want to cap the recent
escalation of tensions, and easing sanctions could offer an interim path in
2016 towards a thaw in Russia-Western relations.
Russia-India Security Cooperation

Bad
1.If anybody uses a Brahmos missile from

Russia it escalates
Richardson, 13visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East
Asian Studies (Michael, Cruise missile threat in Asia,
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/06/18/commentary/worldcommentary/cruise-missile-threat-in- asia/#.VkOG1GSrS8U, dml)
Meanwhile, India is looking to its supersonic Brahmos cruise missile , a joint
venture with Russia, as the key new weapon that will give it a strategic
advantage over its neighbor and long-time rival, Pakistan. The Brahmos is the
only known supersonic cruise missile system in service. Its designer, BrahMos
Aerospace of Russia, says it travels at two to three times the speed of sound,
or approximately one kilometer per second. In October, India and Russia
agreed to produce more than 1,000 Brahmos missiles for the Indian Air Force,
Navy and Army. The two sides also decided to jointly develop a hypersonic
version of the missile that would fly more than five times the speed of sound.
The Indian missile, which can be launched from the sea, air or land, has a
range of about 300 km. It can carry a conventional or nuclear warhead. The
high speed of Indias Brahmos cruise missile means it has the potential to
carry out prompt strikes on extremist camps inside Pakistan, to be followed
by a punitive invasion by the Indian armed forces. Because India is so much
bigger and stronger than Pakistan, the latter has developed short-range
ballistic missiles with low-yield nuclear warheads to deter such attacks.
Although still to be verified, Pakistan claims it has miniaturized nuclear
warheads so that they will also fit on cruise missiles. India also says that its
cruise missiles are nuclear-capable. The short term warning hould either
country use such weapons against the other means that escalation into an all
out nuclear exchange could result . Shyam Saran, convener of Indias
National Security Advisory Board, said in April that in a crisis with Pakistan,
India would not be the first to use nuclear weapons. He warned that even if
India was attacked with relatively small, or tactical, nuclear arms, it would
engage in nuclear retaliation that will be massive and designed to inflict
unacceptable damage on its adversary. There
is a wider warning here
for Asian countries with tactical nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in operation or
planned . If ever used, such weapons could open a Pandoras Box of
horrendous consequences , proving that a limited nuclear war is a
contradiction in terms
2.India military buildup goes nuclear

Zahid and Ehtisham, 15School of Politics and International Relations AND
Department of Strategic Studies, Quaid-e- Azam University (Ahsan Ali and
Hasan, An ocean of benefits or conflicts?,
http://tribune.com.pk/story/914385/an-ocean-of- benefits-or-conflicts/, dml)
The Indian Ocean can be saved from becoming a zone of conflicts if India
stops thinking it owns it . If the West encourages New Delhi to build a bluewater navy, it would only be a matter of time before it ends up becoming a
nightmare for the West itself. The Indian Ocean ranks as the fifth largest
ocean, covering 20 per cent of the water on Earth. It consists of 60 islands
owned by different states and has four major waterways the Strait of
Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el Mandeb and the Suez Canal.
Interestingly, the Indian Ocean had never been nuclearized even during the
Cold War.The shifting of Indian nuclear capabilities from from land to sea, in
their deployment against Pakistan and China, could end up initiating a threeparty nuclear competition . India is modernising its navy at a rapid pace, and
allocated it a budget of $4.8 billion in 2011. China, on the other hand, is not
in a position right now to generate a stir in the contemporary strategic
balance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India dragged the IOR into an
intense arms race by introducing a nuclear-powered ballistic missile
submarine, INS Arihant, in 2014; it is also in the process of building two more
Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear submarines. India now has two platforms,
INS Subhadra and INS Suvarna, to launch Dhanush missiles. The Indian Navy
also has the ability to launch , a joint venture between Russia and India,
which can stops thinking it owns it both conventional and . In short, and
international recognition in the IOR onfidence-building to be . In the backdrop
of the traditional rivalries in this region, the addition of nuclear-capable
submarines in the Indian naval fleet is a to Pakistan and China. provocation
Pakistan and carry nuclear payloads India is playing a dangerous game in
pursuit of prestige where c m easures or institutionalised conflict-resolution
seem totally absent serious threat This could force other regional , thus . It is
not surprising that China is willing to sell eight diesel-electric, and not
nuclear, submarines to states to launch drives to acquire similar capability
initiating an arms race in South Asia Pakistan. As stated earlier, South Asia
has that can be used to deal with confrontational behaviour that regional
states may indulge in the IOR. If India is resolute about taking the route of
sea-based nuclear strike capability, then . Pakistan needs to work on seabased deterrence as this can provide it with strategic advantages, which
could serve many implicit opportunities. The most vulnerable part of the
Indian defence is its coastal belt, which the Pakistan Navy can exploit through
the element of surprise.
Nuclear Escalation
1.Syrian conflict escalation could trigger a

US-Russia nuclear war
Christina Lin, 1-4-16, http://atimes.com/2016/01/turkey-nato-and-risk-ofnuclear-escalation-with-russia/ Asia Times, Turkey, NATO, and the Risk of
Nuclear Escalation with Russia, http://atimes.com/2016/01/turkey-nato-andrisk-of-nuclear-escalation-with-russia/ DOA: 1-4-16
Alarmed by US military escalation against Russia over Syria rather than
focusing on fighting Al Qaeda affiliates and ISIS, US Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (DHawaii) in the House Armed Services Committee issued a stark warning to
Defense Secretary Carter that Obamas policies could trigger a devastating
nuclear war with Russia.[5] Gabbard said she could only presume that
President Obamas decision to send American fighter jets to the Turkey-Syrian
border was to target Russian planes since ISIS does not have an air force.
With US backing Turkeys position of removing Assad and preventing the
linking of Kurdish cantons Afrin and Kobane via Aleppo, she warned that US
and Russias diametrically opposed objectives with air strikes in Syria could
create a strong potential for a head-to-head military conflict escalating to a
nuclear war. Gabbard told Carter that Russias installation of their antiaircraft missile-defense system increases that possibility of whether its
intentional or even an accidental event where one side may shoot down
the other sides plane. She ended with these sobering words: And thats
really where the potential is for this devastating nuclear war for something
that could blow up into something much larger.
US-Russia conflict could go nuclear
Athena Yenko, January 4, 2016, http://www.morningnewsusa.com/russiastrategizes-ww3-us-nato-2351008.html Morning News USA, DOA: 1-4-16
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a document naming, for the first
time, NATO and the United States as the countrys threats. The document is
the basis for the countrys military strategy in preserving national security.
The president signed the document following an intelligence report from the
U.S. Navy acknowledging Russias military might that could undermine that of
the West.
Morning News USA has been closely watching the tense relations between
U.S. and NATO against Russia. Words about a looming World War 3 that could
get nuclear has been around since Russias annexation of Crimea in March
2014. The relationship worsened when Turkey shot down a Russian jet in
November 2015. The U.S. has always been a strong NATO ally. The alliance
has always followed article 5 which states that an attack to one ally is an
attack to all. NATO and U.S. have always been a foe of Russia since the Cold
War Era.
Economic Sanctions have not

and will not succeed
Subpoint a. Sanctions are statistically

unsuccessful
Gary Clyde Hufbauer et al. , Jeffrey J. Schott, and Kimberly Ann Elliott,
Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, second edition, revised, 2 vols. Peterson
Institute for International Economics, a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan
research institution devoted to the study of research economics. January
1998. http://www.iie.com/research/topics/sanctions/sanctionssummary.cfm
Economic sanctions proved far more useful in contributing to foreign
policy goals prior to about 1973, when they had a 44 percent success
rate. Of 59 cases initiated between 1973 and 1990, only 14 (24
percent) resulted in at least a partial success even though the number
of cases involving modest policy goals soared. Among other things, this can
be attributed to the declining dominance in the world economy of the United
States, which has been by far the most frequent user of economic sanctions
(77 of the 115 cases). Efforts to impair a foreign adversary's military
potential, or otherwise to change its policies in a major way, succeeded
infrequently Unlike the cold war era, the US is no longer the major supplier of
many goods and services, nor is it the only source of economic assistance for
developing countries.
Subpoint b. Sanctions on Russia are not

creating any change
Emma Ashford. Foreign Affairs. Researcher at the CATO institute. 8 December
2015. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2015-1214/not-so-smart-sanctions
Emma Ashford, a researcher at the CATO institute

states in 2015 that
And when the sanctions against Russia are judged by the most
relevant metricwhether they are producing a policy changethey
have been an outright failure. Since the United States imposed the
sanctions, Russia has not backed down in Ukraine, and there is no
reason to believe that they will force it to do so anytime soon. In the
meantime, however, the sanctions are harming U.S. economic and
geopolitical interests. If Western leaders want to resolve the Ukraine crisis
and meaningfully constrain Russias bad behavior, they should abandon their
failed sanctions-centric policy and focus on other measures instead, such as
efforts to aid Ukraine economically, obstructRussias military modernization,
and increase European energy independence.
NEG BLOCKS
A2 Sanctions lead to ceasefires

and diplomacy.
1. The ceasefire was completely useless.

Ioffe
14
Julia
. The New Republic. 12 Nov 20
. <https://newrepublic.com/article/120250/natoOrussiaOinvadesOukraineObreakingO
ceasefireOthatsOoldOnews> Julia Ioffe is a Russian-American journalist and blogger, whose writings have been published by The Columbia
Journalism Review, The Washington Post, The New Yorker, Foreign Policy, Forbes, The New Republic, and Russia!
the September 5 ceasefire agreement, signed by the

, is now "collapsing."
Since its signing, the accord has been "battered," "doubtful," "strained,"
"shaky," and "crumbling." Two days ago, Washington told Moscow to obey the truce. Today, Moscow told Washington to
Well, according to the Western press, this shows that
Ukrainian government and Ukrainian separatists as the West breathed a collective sigh of relief
do the same. Consider this November 9 headline, from the Financial Times: "Heaviest Shelling Since Truce Renews Ukraine War Fears."
Heaviest shelling since truce? Where lies the line between shelling that violates a ceasefire, and shelling that doesn't? All of this implies that
Almost since the day the truce was

signed, it was violated. Not once, not twice, but constantly, in a grinding
routine of shelling and blood. By early October, one month since the Minsk agreement, the U.N. reported that 331
the ceasefire ever existed in the first place. Let's be clear: it hasn't.
people had been killed in the continual fighting in the Donbass region of Ukraine.
2. TURN - Putin is becoming more

threatening, not less threatening.
Batchelor.
Tom
Express News. 12 Dec 20
20000OextraOsoldiersOfrontline>
15.
<http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/626063/UkraineOcivilOwarORussiaOdeploysO
VLADIMIR Putin has deployed an extra

20,000 soldiers to the frontline of Ukraines civil war, as temperatures and hopes of a lasting ceasefire
Putin sends 20,000 troops to beef up Russian rebels in bloody Ukraine civil war
continue to plummet. The fresh deployment takes the number of Russian troops in the region to 70,000 O a move Ukraines president described as blatant aggression
aimed at causing further unrest. The fighting force is stationed in the east of the warOscarred country, where fierce battles between government backed rebels and
RussianObacked separatists have claimed the lives of more than 9,000 in the 20Omonth long conflict. Petro Poroshenko attacked the Kremlin for using bombing raids in
Syria as cover to divert the worlds attention from ongoing aggression in Ukraine. Meanwhile, US Vice President Joe Biden warned Russia that Western pressure on
Moscow would only increase if Russian "aggression" against neighbouring Ukraine continued. During a visit to Kiev, he said: "If Russian aggression persists, the cost
imposed on Moscow will continue to rise.
3. Trust the experts.

Sorcher.
14
Sara
National Journal. 5 May 20
. <http://www.nationaljournal.com/defense/2014/05/05/securityOinsidersOsanctionsO
wontOencourageOputinOdiplomaticallyOresolveOcrisisOukraine>
Security Insiders: Sanctions Wont Encourage Putin to Diplomatically Resolve Crisis in Ukraine. Virtually all Insiders also say theres no chance
An overwhelming majority of 87.5

percent of National Journals National Security Insiders do not believe new
U.S. sanctions will encourage President Vladimir Putin to diplomatically
resolve the crisis in Ukraine.
of peace between Israel and the Palestinians in Obamas last term.
A2 Sanctions Upholds
International Law.
1. Putin doesnt care about international law.

Levintova.
Hannah
internationalOlaw>
Mother Jones. 5 Mar 20
14.
<http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2014/03/ukraineOcrimeaOputinOinvasionO
The thing is, Putin actually loves international lawat least, in theory. The Russian president has expressed strong support for international law
Putin
has repeatedly assured the public that what's happening in Crimea right now
the use of force without UN permission and potential violations of the 1994
Budapest memorandumwould never happen on his watch. So in case a reminder might be
many times, but, no surprise, it usually comes when he's singling out the United States as a violator. In recent months and years,
usefulas diplomatic efforts are underway to deOescalate the crisisbelow is a partial timeline of Putin's many vows to abide by international
1) December 19, 2013:
law and not resort to the unilateral use of force to resolve a crisis.
About a month after protesters
first occupied the Maidan in Kiev, Putin held his annual endOofOyear press conference in Moscow and got several questions on Ukraine. One
reporter reminded Putin of Russian interventions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and then asked, "Is a situation possible, even hypothetically, in
Is the deployment
of Russian troops to Ukraine at all possible?" Putin's answer was a definitive
no: "None of what is happening in Crimea is like what occurred in South Ossetia and Abkhazia." He noted that Russia interfered in these
which you will similarly protect the interests of RussianOspeaking residents or Russian citizens of Crimea?...
other spots only because the ethnic conflicts in these regions had placed Russian citizens in the area at risk. "We care about the situation of
our compatriots...But this does not mean that we're going to swing sabers and bring in troops. That is absolute nonsense. Nothing of the sort is
2) September 20, 2013
or will be happening."
: With the threat of American military action in Syria looming, Putin addressed
the topic during the final meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. "The threat of the use of force and actual use of force are far
from being a cureOall for international problems," he said. "We are talking about using force outside the framework of current international
Russia agrees with those who believe that key decisions should be
worked out on a collective basis, rather than at the discretion of and in the
interests of certain countries or groups of countries. Russia believes that
international law, not the right of the strong, must apply." 3) September 11,
2013: In a New York Times opOed, Putin, opposing possible US military action in Syria, declared that nations should not bypass the United
law." He continued: "
Nations and its Security Council in taking military action, and he insisted that "decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by
consensus." He elaborated: From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their
own future. We are not protecting the Syrian government, but international law. We need to use the United Nations Security Council and
believe that preserving law and order in today's complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding
. The law is still the law, and we must follow it whether we like it or not.
Under current international law, force is permitted only in self defense or by
the decision of the Security Council. Anything else is unacceptable under the United Nations Charter and would
constitute an act of aggression. 4) February 27, 2012: After huge opposition protests showed mass discontent with the
into chaos
prospect of another Putin presidency, Putin, then the prime minister, took to the Russian media with seven articles detailing his vision for
, "The
major principles necessary for any feasible civilization include the inalienable
right to security for all states, the inadmissibility of the excessive use of force,
and the unconditional observance of the basic principles of international law .
Russia. He opened the final article with a rundown of Russia's foreign policy objectives, including "nonconfrontation." He wrote
To neglect any of these principles can only lead to the destabilization of international relations." "It is important that the UN and its Security
Council can effectively resist the dictates of some countries and their arbitrary actions on the world stage," he wrote. "Nobody has the right to
usurp the prerogatives and powers of the UN, especially in regard to the use of force against sovereign states."
Neuman
15
Scott
. NPR. 26 Apr 20
. <http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwoO
way/2015/04/26/402392678/putinOnoOregretsOoverOcrimeaOannexation>
In a new documentary in Russia, President Vladimir Putin says that the annexation of
Crimea just over a year ago was justified and righted a historical wrong .
In the film
titled The President, Putin denies that the importance of the Black Sea peninsula is not strategic. "It's because this has elements of historical
. I believe we did the right thing and I don't regret anything ," he says, according to
justice
RIA news agency.
A2 Sanctions Create Economic

Instability and Push Russia
Towards Democracy
1. The cause of economic struggles was oil

prices, not sanctions.
Bessonov
15
Vladimir
. Higher School of Economics. 24 Aug 20
.
<http://in.rbth.com/economics/business/2015/08/24/sanctionsOcausedOrusiasOgdpOtoO shrinkObyOonlyO05Opercent_391845>
anti Russian sanctions in relation to the Ukraine crisis resulted in the decline of
Russia's economy only by 0.5-0.6 percent. Russian experts believe that first
and foremost the economy is affected by oil prices, not the sanctions. The
The introduction of
introduction of anti Russian sanctions in relation to the Ukraine crisis resulted in the decline of Russia's economy only by 0.5O0.6 percent. The
rest of the recession was caused by recordOlow oil prices. The Kommersant newspaper writes that this conclusion was made in a study carried
out by collaborators of the Russian Central Bank, Andrei Sinyakov and Sergei Seleznev, as well as by economist from the International
Monetary Fund Augustin Rointman. According to official information, Russia's GDP in the JanuaryO June 2015 period fell by 3.4 percent in
Vladimir Bessonov, Director of the Laboratory of Inflation

Problems and Economic Growth Study at the Higher School of Economics, agrees with the conclusion.
"The precision of such evaluations is inevitably relative, however, in general I confirm that Russia's GPD fell
in relation to the change in energy prices, not the sanctions."
relation to the same period in 2014.
2. Turn -Sanctions have ingrained Putins

power.
Michael Birnbaum. Washington Post. 24 Jun 2015.
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/06/24/putinsO
approvalOratingsOhitO89OpercentOtheOhighestOtheyveOeverObeen/>
Think Russians are tiring of conflict with the West? Not according to
President Vladimir Putins approval ratings, which hit allOtime highs of 89
percent Wednesday. Putin has been riding skyOhigh ever since the March
2014 annexation of Ukraines Crimean Peninsula, which Russians embraced
as a restoration of their place at the table of superpowers. Neither Western
sanctions nor an economy in the doldrums nor NATOs bolstering its presence
along the borders have been able to dislodge Putins support ever since.
Some Western policymakers had hoped that a sanctions regime that includes
tight restrictions on the Russian banking and energy industries would push
Putin toward a different path. The conflict in eastern Ukraine, which is
partially fueled by Russia, has indeed quieted, though not stopped, in recent
months. But those who were planning for a collapse in Putins support might
want to pin their aspirations elsewhere. Putins ratings jumped from 65
percent in January 2014 to 80 percent two months later, and theyve stayed
in the 80s ever since, according to measurements from the MoscowObased
Levada Center, the only independent polling organization in Russia. Theyve
kept going up: In Putins 15 years in office, theyve never been higher than
Junes 89 percent.
3. Turn this against them B Sanctions have

made Russians hate the West.
Maria Lipman. European Council on Foreign Relations. 14 Mar 2015.
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_russia_has_come_to_loathe_the_
west3 11346
In January 2015, negative perceptions of the West in Russia rose to the
highest level ever recorded in the history of Russian public opinion polling.
Eighty one percent of people surveyed had a negative perception of the
United States, while a mere 13 percent had a positive view. Seventy one
percent viewed the European Union negatively, with 20 percent having a
positive perception. One year earlier, the results were 44 to 43 percent for
the US, and 34 to 51 percent for Europe. FortyOtwo percent described
Russias relations with the US as hostile, up from 4 percent just one year
ago. One out of four Russians thought relations with the EU were hostile
whereas two years ago, in January 2013, only one person out of a hundred
saw RussiaOEU relations in this light. The current antagonism is nurtured by
the aggressive antiOWestern propaganda that has accompanied the crisis in
Ukraine since its onset in late 2013. In the quarter century of postOSoviet
development, perceptions of the US and the West in general have gone
through different phases, but resentment towards the West has been
gradually accumulating throughout the period.
4. Russia will never be democratic because the

Russian people dont even want democracy.
Max Fisher. Washington Post. 11 Jan 2013.
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/01/11/mostOru
ssiansO
andOpakistanisOsayOtheyOpreferOaOstrongOrulerOoverOdemocracy/>
The Pew global attitudes project, a big set of periodic surveys on everything
from economics to religion, is a terrific window into the public opinions and
ideas that increasingly guide our world. I'll be returning to this data over the
coming days and weeks, but this one really struck me. Pew asked people in
seven countries whether they prefer democratic government or one with a
"strong" leader. The latter choice was more popular in only two countries:
Pakistan and Russia. In the other five, democracy is most popular among
polled respondents. A/T NAMING AND SHAMING
A2 Sanctions Targeted at Putins

Officials
1. Empirically, targeted sanctions fail just as

much as other sanctions.
Gary Hufbauer. Petersen Institute. 2010.
<http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/hufbauer0708ppt.pdf>
Summary of Key Findings Sanctions succeed in about onethird of the cases
overall, but the success rate depends importantly on the type of objectives
sought. Success means sanctions contributed significantly to the partial or
full achievement of the foreign policy goal. Partial achievement of foreign
policy goals is far more common than full achievement. Diversified sanctions
involving a mix of trade and financial measuressucceed more often than
cases involving only trade sanctions Incremental implementation of sanctions
(i.e., turning the screw) is less effective than fullObore measures. However,
diplomats prefer to turn the screw. Summary of Key Findings (Cont.)
International cooperation doesnt guarantee success, but in recent years the
record for multilateral sanctions is better than the record for unilateral US
sanctions. Targeted sanctions are no more successful than traditional
measures and those targeting individuals work better as a signaling device
than as a coercive measure. Our success rate of one third overall indicates
that in about two thirds of the cases the foreign policy goal was not achieved
or, if it was achieved, other means were decisive (usually military force)/
2. In Russia, targeted sanctions are seen as a

joke.
Alec Torres. National Review Institute. 21 Apr 2015.
<http://www.nationalreview.com/article/373912/sanctionsOareObigOjokeOrus
siansOalecO torres>
For violating a countrys national sovereignty, annexing its territory, breaking
international law, disrupting the balance of power, and trashing the 1994
Budapest Memorandum, Vladimir Putins Russia has faced one primary
retaliation from the West: targeted sanctions against a handful of prominent
Russian officials. But while Russia consolidates its gains, the very people
America and the West sought to punish view their punishment as a jest, if
not as a badge of honor. Far from discouraging Russia or causing the country
to regret its invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, the sanctions,
which include asset freezes and travel restrictions, are instead seen as a
grand joke. In a meeting with those targeted by the sanction, President Putin
reportedly kidded his foreign minister, We should distance ourselves from
them. They compromise us. The targets themselves expressed similarly
jovial sentiments. [...] Vladislav Surkov, a wealthy Russian businessman and
aide to Putin, said that the sanction is a big honor for me. I dont have
accounts abroad. The only things that interest me in the U.S. are Tupac
Shakur, Allen Ginsberg, and Jackson Pollock. I dont need a visa to access
their work. I lose nothing. Surkov also said that he views being a target as a
distinction, as if he won a political Oscar from America for best supporting
actor. Sergei Mironov, a member of the Russian Duma, scoffed in particular
at the travel restrictions, saying, The promised sanctions do not frighten me
at all. I love to travel and vacation in Russia. Seeing as Russia is nearly twice
the geographical size of the United States, Mironov should have no problem
finding a good spot to get away and unwind.
3. Targeted sanctions preclude internal unrest,

preventing the chance of making Russia
change its policies.
Mark Leonard. European Council on Foreign Relations. 2015.
<http://www.ecfr.eu/page/O/ECFR117_TheNewEuropeanDisorder_ESSAY.pdf>
Most obviously, sanctions facilitate Putins plans for limiting Russias exposure
to the West. In the early 1960s, the Soviets erected a wall through the centre
of Berlin to isolate East Germany from the West. But Putin cannot stop
trading with the world, nor can he offer an ideology capable of convincing
Russians that, in their glorious isolation, they will own the future. Instead,
Putin has taken a lesson from his beloved judo and decided to use the Wests
power against itself. Russian officials who initially resisted their presidents
order to repatriate their money from Western banks are doing so now
because of Western sanctions. The economic costs of sanctions will allow
Putin to hide the failures of the Kremlins economic policies. Sanctions also
provide Putin cover to push for managed isolation from globalisation through
policies designed to nationalise the internet, prohibit foreign ownership of
the media, and limit travel.9 Whats more, the sanctions that target Putins
cronies have also marginalised proBWestern members of the Russian elite.
You [in the West] reason that the sanctions will split the elite and force Putin
to change course, but thats not what is happening, a billionaire investor
told the Financial Times. On the contrary, you are destroying those in Russia
who are the friends of the West. The siloviki [the heavies] have been
strengthened more than ever before.10
4. Turn - targeted sanctions make Putin turn

away from rich businessmen, and toward
military commanders.
Weir
Fred
. Christian Science Monitor. 20
RussiaOsOforeignOpolicyOisOhardening>
15.
<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0202/OligarchsOoutOsilovikiOinOWhyO
Oligarchs out, 'siloviki' in? Why Russia's foreign policy is hardening. Western sanctions on Russia have mostly targeted business elites close to
experts say the militaryBsecurity establishment, or siloviki,

have Putin's ear now. MOSCOW The West's response to Russia's alleged military aid to Ukraine's rebels has been based on
President Vladimir Putin. But
the idea that the biggest influence in Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle are the soOcalled "oligarchs." Hurt the business elite that
stand beside Mr. Putin, goes the theory, and you pressure the Russian president himself. And the oligarchs are reportedly hurting, as Western
So why are the Ukrainian

rebels still pushing their offensive and talking of building a 100,000Bstrong
reserve army to bring the fight to Kiev? The reason, according to some accounts, is that it is not the oligarchs
who hold Putin's ear now. Rather, it is Russia's militaryBsecurity establishment, collectively
known as the siloviki, who are shaping the Kremlin's foreign policy. "The role of what
we call the defense industrial complex is rising rapidly in Russian society, " says
Alexander Golts, an independent military expert. "It's not just the armed forces, but also the [80,000
strong] interior troops, the Federal Security Service [FSB], police, and other
security organizations. The key narrative of the siloviki, that Russia is surrounded by enemies
sanctions given extra bite by plummeting oil prices have eaten away at their fortunes.
and must defend itself from external aggression and internal subversion, has become the main theme on nightly TV broadcasts."
A2 Western Interests are

democracy, cap, etc.
1.If democracy, liberalism, etc. are western

interests, then so are colonialism,
imperialism.
Jasper M. Trautsch, The Invention of the West, GHI Fellow in North American
History, 2012-13
Western Civilization tend to be based on the assump- tion that the
cultural space of the West is defined by democracy, individualism, and
liberalism. Consequently, they trace the development and gradual expansion of western freedoms from the birth of democracy in
Histories of
ancient Greece, through the expansion of liberties and civil rights in the wake of the Enlightenment, to the defense of western democracy
against fascism and communism in the twentieth century, in order to show how western nations became exemplary, stable, and wealthy
democracies.1 There are also numer- ous monographs which celebrate and explain the uniqueness and alleged superiority of the West or
Western Civilization.2 These sweeping overviews of Euro-Atlantic history usually first define what they hold to be western values and then
analyze how (Western) Europe and North America came to develop into a com- munity of values characterized by political participation,
Such
analyses, however, typically ignore contradictory developments such as
imperialism, colonial exploitation, totalitarianism, and genocide (which could
just as well be defined as western) or downplay them as an aberration from the true end of the Wests
pluralist civil societies, human rights, the separation of powers, and the protection of civil liberties over the course of time.
history: the expansion of freedom.
A2: Need to Reverse Russian

Aggression in Crimea
1.Sanctions wont reverse Russian aggression

in Crimea
Nikolay Pakhomov is a political analyst and consultant in New York City. He is
a Russian International Affairs Council expert, January 4, 2015, The National
Interest, The Truth About Sanctions Against Russia,
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-truth- about-sanctions-against-russia14789?page=2 DOA: 1-4-16
It should come as no surprise: the political elites in Europe and the United
States have attached so much political significance to the sanctions that the
sanctions have become irreversible, at least without a significant move on
the part of Russia. Since there are no signs that Moscow will, for example,
reverse its decision on Crimea, one cannot expect an end to Western
sanctions against Russia any time soon.
2.Russia not reducing its military activities in

the Ukraine
Thomas Gibbons-Neff is a staff writer and a former Marine infantryman,
December 31, 2015, As Ukraine Enters 2016, Peace Remains Elusive,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/12/31/as-ukraineenters-2016-peace-remains-elusive/ DOA: 1-4-16
Despite Russias commitment of military forces in the Middle East, Russian
troop levels in Ukraine remain mostly unchanged, according to NATOs top
commander U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove. Breedloves comments,
made to reporters at the end of October came just a month after Russian
began flying its first sorties over northern Syria. Breedlove went on to say
that Russias actions were meant to take the worlds eyes off what is
happening in Ukraine. What we have not seen is Russia removing any of its
forces in Ukraine. As you have heard me report at this podium before,
command and control, air defense, artillery spotting support, artillery
support, personnel, supplies, all still being supplied to the Donbass by
Russia, Breedlove said, referring to the area covered by Donetsk and
Luhansk.
3.Russian aggression in the Ukraine is

increasing
Terrell Jermaine Starr, December 31, 2015, What Russias been doing in
Ukraine since you stopped paying attention,
http://theweek.com/articles/587241/what-russias-been-doing-ukraine-sincestopped-paying-attention DOA: 1-5-16
It didn't take long for western media to lose focus. After Russia began its
military campaign to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the world
largely stopped paying attention to Ukraine. It shouldn't have. Over the last
few months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been busy trying to deepen
the quagmire he created in Eastern Europe. A United Nations' report released
in November detailed the degree to which his proxy war in Ukraine has
turned the country into Russia's killing field. More than 9,000 people have
died since the spring of 2014 after Russia-backed rebels began fighting Kiev
for independence, with some 20,000 people wounded. Between Aug. 16 and
Nov. 15 alone, 47 civilians were killed and 131 were injured. At 9,000, the
death toll in Ukraine is approaching the 13,000 killed during the war in
Kosovo. Though Putin has long claimed Russian ground troops are not
supporting rebels, the UN and other organizations have proven otherwise.
And Russian fighters, ammunition, and weaponry continue to flow into
Donetsk and Luhansk, the UN report shows. Even after two Minsk Agreements
that were supposed to end fighting between the rebels and Ukrainian forces,
Russia has failed to convince its side to end violence in the territories it
controls. That's because with strong political support at home that seems
impervious to sanctions levied by the West, Putin has no incentive to see
tensions ease in eastern Ukraine. What he wants is to keep the conflict frozen
so that Ukraine becomes economically weak and politically unstable.
A2: Sanctions Undermine the

Economy
1.Multiple other reasons for a Russian

economic downturn
Mark Galeotti is Professor of Global Affairs at New York Universitys Center for
Global Affairs at NYUs Center for Affairs and director of its Initiative for the
Study of Emerging Threats. His most recent book is Spetsnaz: Russias
Special Forces (Osprey, 2015), January 4, 2016, War on the Rocks,
http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/russias-new-national-security-strategyfamiliar- themes-gaudy-rhetoric/
Perhaps one of the most interesting and distinctive aspects of how the 2016
document frames security, like the 2009 one, is the use of broad definitions:
Security is as much about economics, health, and social order as anything
else. In this context, the Kremlin sounds (rightly) much more alarmed about
the situation today. Obviously the Russian economy is in crisis, but beyond
the immediate impact of the oil price slump, the country is at risk because
of ... a lag in the development of advanced technologies, the vulnerability of
the financial system, an imbalance of the budgetary system, the economy
going offshore, the exhaustion of the raw materials base, the strength of the
shadow economy, conditions leading to corruption and criminal activities, and
uneven development of the regions.
2.Low oil prices are the problem

Andrew Movchan, Carnegie Moscow Center, 1-4-16, Whats in store for the
Russian economy in 2016, http://carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=62391 DOA: 14-15 Andrey Movchan is a senior associate and director of the Economic
Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. His research focuses on
Russias economy, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the future of Russias
economic relations with the EU. Movchan has been a top executive for
Russian and international financial institutions since 1993. He was an
executive director of Troika Dialog for six years. From 2003 to 2009, Movchan
headed Renaissance Investment Management Group, which he founded, and
from 2006 to 2008, he was the CEO of Renaissance
Low oil prices in 2015 ravaged all of Russias key economic indicators.
Demand for durable goods shrank by almost half, imports plummeted 35
percent, trade turnover in rubles fell almost 12 percent, and foreign
investmentwhich had fallen to almost zero in 2014was nonexistent in
2015. A GDP decline of about 3-5 percent in real terms will be accompanied
by inflation of at least 14-16 percent when all is said and done in 2015.
3.Structural issues make an economic decline

inevitable
Movchan
16
Andrew
, Carnegie Moscow Center, 1-4, Whats in store for the Russian economy in 2016,
http://carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=62391 DOA: 1-4-15 Andrey Movchan is a senior associate and director of the Economic Policy Program at
the Carnegie Moscow Center. His research focuses on Russias economy, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the future of Russias economic
relations with the EU. Movchan has been a top executive for Russian and international financial institutions since 1993. He was an executive
director of Troika Dialog for six years. From 2003 to 2009, Movchan headed Renaissance Investment Management Group, which he founded,
and from 2006 to 2008, he was the CEO of Renaissance
Economic development was also crippled by the destruction of institutions,

corruption, and the absence of legal protection for businessmen and
investors. Moreover, the investment of petrodollar revenue streams into nonoil businesses began to decline sharply in 2009. Following a brief recovery
from 2010 to 2012, GDP growth began to decelerate by 1.5 percent per year
as a result of dwindling investment and shrinking capital expenses, even with
petrodollars rolling in and the state openly embracing foreign investment.
Structural issues quickly became visible at the macro-level, as the growing
monopolization of the Russian economy and its dependence on statecontrolled behemoths such as Gazprom, Rosneft, and Russian Railways led to
high inflation.
A2: Sanctions Undermine the Oil

Industry No Western Technology
1.Despite sanctions, Russia has been able to

produce oil
Elena Mazneva, 1-2-16, Bloomberg, Russian oil output hits post-Soviet record
low amid lower price, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-0102/russian-crude-output-hits-monthly-record-amid-plunging-prices DOA: 1-416
Russian crude producers have been setting post-Soviet records even amid
plunging prices and U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to
foreign financing and technology. The companies have managed to squeeze
more crude out of some aging fields in West Siberia and brought a few midsized new projects on line. Russias crude export rose to 5.25 million barrels a
day in 2015, according to the data, with supplies to countries outside the
former Soviet Union jumping 11 percent to more than 4.42 million barrel
2.Old investments support output

Elena Mazneva, 1-2-16, Bloomberg, Russian oil output hits post-Soviet record
low amid lower price, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-0102/russian-crude-output-hits-monthly-record-amid-plunging-prices DOA: 1-416
The Russian government, which relies on oil for about 40 percent of its
budget revenue, doesnt expect a drop in production this year. Investments
made two to three years ago have been supporting output in 2015 and will do
so in 2016, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Dec. 22. Still, production
may decline next year if Russia has to increase the tax burden on the
industry to narrow the budget gap given the plunging oil price, he said.
A2: Economic Downturn Means

Russia Doesnt Have the Military
Power to Intervene in Syria
1.Russia already has more military

equipment that it could deploy in Syria
Yury Barman, 1-4-16, Russia Direct, What to expect from Russias Syria policy
in 2016, http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/what- expect-russia
%E2%80%99s-syria-policy-2016 DOA: 1-4-16 Russia Direct
Moscow itself is not entirely sure whether a diplomatic settlement of the crisis
is possible, which is why a further military build-up in Syria is still possible.
Putin has hinted at this when he recently said that Russia is using far from
everything it is capable of and that it could resort to other military means in
Syria if needed.
A2: Sanctions Needed to

Undermine Putin
1.A new leader that replaces Putin would be

just as bad
James
Carafano et al, December 2015, The Regime of Vladimir Putin, Heritage, December 2015, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/12/us-
comprehensive-strategy-toward-russia DOA: 1-4-16 [James Jay Carafano, PhD, is Vice President for the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and
Foreign Policy and E. W. Richardson Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Ted R. Bromund, PhD, is Senior Research Fellow in AngloAmerican Relations in the Margaret
Thatcher Center for Freedom, of the Davis Institute. Dean Cheng is a Senior Research Fellow for Chinese Political and Security Affairs in the Asian Studies Center, of the
Davis Institute. Luke Coffey is Margaret Thatcher Fellow in the Thatcher Center. Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center. Helle C.
Dale is Senior Fellow for Public Diplomacy in the Davis Institute. Michaela Dodge is Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and Strategic Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign and National Security Policy, of the Davis Institute. David Inserra is a Research Associate for Homeland Security and Cyber Security in the Allison Center.
Bruce Klingner is Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center. Daniel Kochis is a Research Associate in the Thatcher Center. Ryan Olson is a
former Research Associate in the Center for Trade and Economics, of the Institute for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, at The Heritage Foundation. James Phillips is
Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center. Ana Quintana is a Policy Analyst for Latin America and the Western Hemisphere in the Allison Center.
Bryan Riley is Jay Van Andel Senior Analyst in Trade Policy in the Center for Trade and Economics. Brian Slattery is a Policy Analyst for Defense Studies in the Allison Center.
William T. Wilson, PhD, is Senior Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center.]
At the heart of the problems in U.S.Russian relations lies the Putin regime.
While a different leader would not necessarily act differentlythe interests of
the regime Putin has built might be much the same even if he was no longer
leading itRussias relations with the West have undoubtedly worsened in
tandem with Putins autocratic rise. While the ability of the U.S. to affect
politics inside Russia is limited in the best of times, the U.S. should take note
of the regimes nature and weaknesses in formulating its response to Putins
aggression.
A2: Sanctions Needed to Support

Minsk II
1.Minsk agreements not being implemented

David McCalister, 1-4-16, New Europe, The labyrinth of transatlantic
prosperity, http://neurope.eu/article/the-labyrinth-of- transatlantic-prosperity/
DOA: 1-5-16
Russia and Ukraine have made very little progress in broader strategic
negotiations. The Minsk talks saw some success in September and October,
when the cease-fire between pro-Russia separatists and Ukrainian security
forces was observed almost completely, but fighting has more recently
increased along the line of contact between the two sides in eastern Ukraine
and there is still a failure to advance the political components of the Minsk
agreements. Russia is pushing Ukraine and the Europeans to give the
separatist territories more autonomy with constitutional amendments, but
Kiev and the West insist that Moscow must give back control of the border
between Russia and the separatist territories first. The two sides are
interpreting the Minsk agreement differently, making it difficult to move
toward a lasting resolution of the conflict.
2.Fighting has not been reduced

Despite a ceasefire signed in February that was supposed to have been
completely implemented by the start of 2016, the prospect of peace in
Ukraine remains elusive. The war in the countrys east between government
troops and Russian-backed separatists periodic lulls in the fighting
notwithstanding has remained largely unchanged since earlier this year.
While some heavy weapons, such as tanks and artillery, have been removed
from the front lines, both sides still clash daily.
3. Their evidence is old fighting increased at

the end of December
The multinational watchdog group, the Organization for Security Co-operation
in Europe has been largely responsible for monitoring both sides of the
conflict since the signing of the last Minsk agreement. On Thursday the
OSCEs chief monitor for its mission to Ukraine, Ambassador Ertugrul Apakan,
expressed hope for peace, but reiterated that a true ceasefire is a way off.
The fact that the number of ceasefire violations in the last weeks of
December had increased again in eastern Ukraine reflects a worrying
development as the year ends, Apakan said in a statement. In December
there was a marked increase in fighting, especially around the city of
Donetsk. In addition to heavy machine guns and mortars, there have been
multiple reports regarding the use of BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket
systems, a weapon explicitly banned by the Minsk ceasefire. Last week,
Ukrainian forces reported that separatist troops, along with tanks and other
vehicles entered the town of Kominternovo near the strategic port city of
Mariupol. The small village is in a grey zone between government and
separatist forces. A spokesman for the Ukrainian troops, Anton Myronovych
called the move a large-scale provocation, during an interview with a
Ukrainian television station. On Sunday, OSCE observers came under fire
from separatist forces near Kominternovo after heading to the village to
investigate if it had, in fact, been taken over and to conduct crater analysis
following fresh fighting there. According to the monitoring groups reports,
villagers stated that separatist troops had entered the town. The villagers
also recalled hearing armored vehicles at night; however, the OSCE could not
confirm if Russian-backed separatist troops were still in the town because
they were restricted from proceeding past its western border, according to a
Monday report.
4.Minsk II has not arrested the conflict

Lydia Tomkiw, 1-4-16, international Business Times, Amid Russia Tensions,
Ukraine to Call for UN Peacekeeping Mission in Conflict-Torn East,
http://www.ibtimes.com/amid-russia-tensions-ukraine-call-un-peacekeepingmission-conflict-torn-east-2248208 DOA: 1-4-16
The Minsk II peace agreement signed last year has failed to put an end to the
conflict. Officials from Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, who negotiated
the pact, have prolonged the peace deal into 2016 in the hopes that the
terms will be met. Officials are scheduled to meet later this month to review
progress.
A2 Need Sanctions to Undermine

the Oligarchs so they put pressure
on Putin
1.This is the intent of the sanctions, but

theyve failed to achieve this and have
caused the oligarchs to rally around Putin
DMITRY POLIKANOV, December 2015, Polikano is member of the Board, PIR
Center (Russian Center for Policy Studies, December 2015,Russia and the
World: Foreign Policy Outlook 2016, available for purchase at Russiadirect.org DOA: 1-6-16
After nearly two years of this regime, it has become clear for everyone that
the sanctions have nothing to do with the alleged stipulations be it the
status of Crimea, or the execution of the Minsk agreements. For the Western
politicians who keep extending the sanctions they are valuable per se to
indicate the Atlantic solidarity and their commitment to the principle of
inability to do business as usual. For Russian politicians, it is clear that the
sanctions are the punishment for Russias revival as a great power and,
hence, they will be indefinite or, at least, will last for another 3-5 years.
Hence, they help to consolidate the Russian elite and most members of this
elite adapted to this economic reality. In fact, they nearly fell into a relaxed
state of complacency in the middle of 2015 (fortunately, the awakening shock
in autumn was rapidly decreasing oil prices).
A2: Sanctions Undermine Europes

Economy
1.Russia and Europe are still trading

The war of sanctions worsened the state of EURussia relations but did not
make the trade interests disappear. The EU troubles may in the longer run
have a negative impact on Russia. This could be the reason to join efforts and
fight against common challenges.
A2: Sanctions Boost NATO Unity
1.Sanctions arent needed The Russia

threat unifies NATO
NATO is generally happy about the crisis in relations with Russia, as the
Alliance has gained a new raison detre. Under the pretext of the Russian
threat, NATO is much more successful in urging its members to increase
defense expenditures. The Alliance comforts its Eastern European members
with deployment of U.S. forces and extra facilities, continues to develop the
missile defense project, and invites Montenegro to join.

Neg Blocks - Jan 16 PF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Neg Blocks - Jan 16 PF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Sources to Indict

RUSSIA TO DEPLOY 50,000

Mac Slavo. InfoWars. 2015.

This could complicate the support for sanctions

2.Decreases Russia public opinion

Recent data released by the Pew Research

B. Polls proveRussians do not blame their government

The 2015 Pew Research Center data indicates that 88 percent in

3.China fill-in solves

China and Russia

1. Putin Bets On Asian Pivot Lift Russias

Backlash/Hurts Western trade

1.Russia is issuing trade embargos in

Food exporters are already facing losses after Russia announced an

2.The EU is missing out on a massive market

In addition to the food imports embargo, Russia is banning Ukrainian airlines

3.The Russian citizens blame the west for

When it comes to inflicting economic pain on Russia, the Kremlin may be

Hurting Civilians/Western Rights

RUSSIA HAS SEEN SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC

2. Various metrics show that the Russian

3.As the economy crumbles and jobs are

4.Poverty undermines human rights, a western

Poverty is a cause and a product of human rights violations. It is this

5.The Pentagon is hurt by the lack of defense

1.Sanctions have just given Russia and excuse

What else can we see as a consequence or even a lasting legacy of

1.Many countries rely very heavily on Russia

1.Europes economy is dependent on Russia

1.Russia will continue a hardline role in

1.Lifting sanctions would improve relations

Russia-India Security Cooperation

1.If anybody uses a Brahmos missile from

2.India military buildup goes nuclear

1.Syrian conflict escalation could trigger a

Economic Sanctions have not

Subpoint a. Sanctions are statistically

Subpoint b. Sanctions on Russia are not

Emma Ashford, a researcher at the CATO institute

A2 Sanctions lead to ceasefires

1. The ceasefire was completely useless.

the September 5 ceasefire agreement, signed by the

Almost since the day the truce was

2. TURN - Putin is becoming more

VLADIMIR Putin has deployed an extra

3. Trust the experts.

An overwhelming majority of 87.5

1. Putin doesnt care about international law.

Mother Jones. 5 Mar 20

1) December 19, 2013:

2) September 20, 2013

A2 Sanctions Create Economic

1. The cause of economic struggles was oil

Vladimir Bessonov, Director of the Laboratory of Inflation

2. Turn -Sanctions have ingrained Putins

3. Turn this against them B Sanctions have

4. Russia will never be democratic because the

A2 Sanctions Targeted at Putins

1. Empirically, targeted sanctions fail just as

2. In Russia, targeted sanctions are seen as a

3. Targeted sanctions preclude internal unrest,

4. Turn - targeted sanctions make Putin turn

experts say the militaryBsecurity establishment, or siloviki,

So why are the Ukrainian