AUD

Malaysia Time
0930
0930
-

EVENT
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
Retail Sales m/m
0.4%
0.7%
Trade Balance
-3.1B
-2.9B
m/m
Forecast to go down
Last month the retail sales data was better than forecasted. GDP data
however was down, and as GDP is related to Retail Sales, a worse than
expected data is expected from last month data.
Trade balance is expected to go down because of lesser demand from
China and the price of commodities
Expected Impact: SELL AUD if data deviate
Trade Call:
Sell AUDUSD on Pullback to 0.7045 (Note: activated, I entered last night) &
0.7100 (Intraday, TP target at 0.7000 & 0.6980)

GBP
Malaysia Time
EVENT
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
1630
Services PMI m/m
57.6%
57.4%
- Forecast to go up
- Still positive if data is above 50%
- Expected Impact: BUY GBP
Trade Call:
BUY GBPAUD on pullback to 2.1600 (Intraday, TP target @2.2000 &
2.2150)
SELL EURGB on pullback to 0.7395 (Long term)
EURO
Malaysia Time
Around 830pm
-

EVENT
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
ECB Press
Conference
No change in interest rate is expected (Announcement at 1945)
Expect a more dovish statement from Draghi
Main focus will be whether there will be extension of QE Program or any
increase in figure
Expected Impact: Sell Euro
Trade Call:
Sell EURUSD on pullback to 1.1350 (Long term)

USD: Bullish
Monetary Policy (0.25%)
Feds is looking to raise
the interest rate up from
0.25% now
Fed Next Meeting
17.09.2015

Inflation Target
2.00%
Current core inflation
rate is at 1.8%

Remarks
FOMC wants further
improvement in jobs
data & reasonable
inflation figure
Recent fall in commodity
prices and weakening
demand from China
COT report: Speculators
decrease their USD
positions to lowest since
mid June
Strongest currency: 1.94
(bond risk free return)

GBP: Neutral to Bullish

Buy against other currencies than dollar on deep pullback
Monetary Policy (0.50%) Inflation Target
Remarks
BoE is looking to raise
2.00%
COT Report: Speculators
the interest rate up
Current core inflation
are adding up their long
from 0.50 now
rate is at 1.2%
positions
BoE Next Meeting
2nd Strongest currency:
10.09.2015
1.43 (bond risk free
return)
AUD: Bearish
Monetary Policy (2.00%)
RBA is on-hold for any
interest cut
RBA Next Meeting
06.q0.2015

Inflation Target
2.00-3.00%
Current core inflation
rate is at 1.98%

Remarks
Big impact from China
and commodity price
COT Report: Speculators
are adding up to their
bearish outlook with the
addition of more short
positions
0.69 (bond risk free
return)

Inflation Target
<2.00%
Current core inflation
rate is at 1.00%

Remarks
Recent fall in commodity
prices affected the
inflation rate and
extension or more
aggressive QE measures
might be possible
COT report: Speculators
are reducing their
bearish outlook
-0.01 (bond risk free
return)

Feb. 3: cash rate cut 25 bps

to 2.25% to boost demand,
economic growth and inflation
May 5: cash rate cut 25 bps to
2.00% to boost household
demand but no guidance
issued.

EURO: Sell
Monetary Policy (0.05%)
ECB is now in QE Stage
that is expected to last
another 12-18 months
ECB Next Meeting
03.09.2015
Jan. 22: Governing council
decides to launch expanded
asset purchase program in
March, with combined
monthly purchases of euroarea government and
European institutions of 60
billion euros. Programme
intended to be carried out
until end of September 2016
and until "sustained
adjustment in path of
inflation."