Predictive Policing in California

Summer 2015

Innovation for Crime

Prevention
DEFINING PREDICTIVE POLICING
Its Not Faster Reaction to Ongoing Crime, But More Accurate Forecasts of Future Events

Predictive policing has become a widely discussed phrase in the last few years. The National
Institute of Justice the research, development and evaluation agency of the United States
Department of Justice notes that law enforcement work is frequently reactive: officers respond
to calls for service, quell disturbances and make arrests.1 In contrast, explains the NIJ, predictive
policing uses data, geospatial models, and intervention models to predict what and where [and
when] something is likely to happen and to deploy resources accordingly.
Very importantly, the NIJ says, The predictive policing approach does not replace traditional
policing. Instead, it enhances existing approaches such as problem-oriented policing,
community policing, intelligence-led policing and hot spot policing.

A screenshot of small,
500 x 500 crime
prediction boxes that
patrol officers receive on
paper or any mobile
device. Predictions are
specific to their shift and

PREDICTIVE POLICING IS HOME-GROWN IN CALIFORNIA

Predictive policing was began development nearly ten years ago in the Los Angeles and Santa
Cruz Police Departments in partnership with researchers at UCLA and Santa Clara University.
Following successful experiments in 2011-2012 in L.A. and Santa Cruz, PredPol became the
means to share the technology with police departments around the world. Deployments in
1 National Institute of Justice, Predictive Policing, June 2014 < http://www.nij.gov/topics/lawenforcement/strategies/predictive-policing/Pages/welcome.aspx >.

Predictive Policing in California

Summer 2015

Predictive Policing in California

Summer 2015

California include Richmond, Modesto, Burbank, Livermore, and Woodland, among many
others. Deployments outside California include Atlanta, Orange County (Orlando), Kent
(England), and Montevideo (Uruguay).
The crime prevention technology generates predictions about which places and windows of
time are at highest risk for future crimes, creating actionable intelligence by which police can
more efficiently and effective direct patrols during each shift of each day of the week.
Designed as an everyday tool for command staff, analysts, supervisors, and officers on the
beat, police spend a few minutes during their shifts covering small, 500 x 500, high risk boxes
displayed on maps. The presence of the officers and neighborhood leaders in these boxes create
a deterrence effect that reduces opportunities for and increases risks of criminal activity.
Here's a little more:

PredPol provides intelligence on what and where, but not who.

Predicted crimes include property offenses, traffic accidents, drug incidents, gang
activity, gun violence, and more.

No personal, socioeconomic, or private information is used only the type of

crime, when it happened, and where it happened.

Police can focus constrained resources more efficiently while giving their officers
specific direction when they have free time between calls for service.

Cities are measuring success by impacts on crime rates, by the ability to predict
more crime than their existing tools like hotspot mapping, and by the increased
visibility of police and community policing neighborhood groups.

PredPol has contributed to double digit drops in crimes according to statistics from
police themselves.

Even when crime is rising, like is happening in 2015 in many California cities,
predictive policing data from police have shown that the increase is slower compared
to areas not using the methodology.

Predictive policing has excelled in controlled scientific field tests, predicting twice as
many future crimes as best practices in those cities.

Predictive Policing in California

Summer 2015

 THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTIVE POLICING

While crime might afflict the same general places year after year, the day-to-day fluctuations in
where and when crimes occur are large. Extensive research has shown that shifting day-today crime patterns are the result of: (1) crime generators that are fixed features of the
environment; (2) repeat and near-repeat victimization that leads previous victims and their
neighbors to be at greater risk of follow-on crimes in the near future; (3) routine activity patterns
that keep risk of crime local; and (4) substantial random noise.
Each of these processes is well known empirically, but when put
together, their impact on how crime hotspots emerge, spread, and
disappear is incredibly complex. This makes predictions for where
crime will occur in the next 10-12 hours very difficult.
Developments in mathematical and statistical modeling, highperformance computers, and mobile technology make it possible
for frequently updated crime forecasts to be at the disposal of
officers in the field for each patrol shift of each day.

ONLY DATA
NEEDED
Type of Crime
Place of Crime
Time of Crime
NOT USED
Demographic Data
Socioeconomic Info
Private Information

Police reliably know and patrol the top three or four riskiest
locations in their operational environment for any particular shift on any particular day. It is
much harder and time-consuming, though, for law enforcement to identify and choose between a
few dozen locations during any shift, especially because high risk areas move around from day to
day. Nighttime crime is different than during daytime, while Tuesdays crime is different
than Saturdays. Opportunities to disrupt crime in these places are missed and thus crime
prevention and reduction becomes unnecessarily difficult.

Current forecasting tools, like a traditional hotspot map on the left, are often
underused because they are ambiguous and confusing. They also use only past
crimes to predict future events somewhat effective, but not nearly as much as
predictive policing. In contrast, near real-time geospatial intelligence should be
displayed in a way that is easy to understand: Patrol these boxes when you are

Predictive Policing in California

Summer 2015

Conclusion: Effective Use of

Resources with Results that
Provide Confidence

Los Angeles Police Chief

Charlie Beck said on the

CBS Evening News, Im

not going to get more money. Im not going to get more cops. I have to be better at using what I
have, and thats what predictive policing is about.
One of PredPols newer deployments is in Woodland, California, a city of about 56,000 people
near Sacramento. Their chief, Dan Bellini, saw a quick impact and told a local newspaper, We
are not in a position to throw unlimited resources at crime, so what we need to do is be smarter.
And Captain Bill Grogan in Norcross, Georgia, just outside Atlanta, has seen by his own
accounting a 15-30% drop in crimes. He noted only a few months after first deployment in 2013
that, "I don't care how science fiction or how far out there it is, the proof is in the pudding."
PredPol shares your goal of using the best practice and best technology to predict, deter, and
prevent crime. We are uniquely positioned with our combination of wide deployments, fieldproven results, police departments that will speak to the impact of PredPol on their crime, and
analytics tools that will let you know the effects the technology is having on your crime.
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Predictive Policing in California

Summer 2015