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Poisson Model
Useful to explain random discrete events, e.g. no. of vehicles
arriving within a short time interval.
Vehicles are counted within equal time intervals.
Vehicle arrivals within any time interval t are not influenced by
those arriving earlier.

m x e m
P( x) =
x!
where,
x = vehicles arriving in any time interval t.
m = average vehicle arrival within time interval t (over a long period)
m = t

where,

= average arrival rate per unit time

t = time interval

Example:
Vehicle arriving at a petrol station occurs randomly and independent from
one another at an average rate of 1 every 10 minutes.
(a)What is the probability that there is no arrival within any half an hour?
(b)What is the probability that at least 3 arrivals occur within an hour?
Solution:
(a) This situation allows for the use of Poisson model.

Given:

= 1/10 vehicle/min.
t = 30 min.

Thus,

m = t = (1/10).30 = 3 arrivals per hour

So, the probability that no arrival within any hour is:

P(0) = 30.e-3 / 0! = e-3 = 0.05

m x e m
P( x) =
x!
m = t

(b) What is the probability that at least 3 arrivals occur within an hour?
Given: t = 1 hour
Thus, m = t = (1/10).60 = 6 arrivals per hour
So,

P( x 3) = P ( x)
x =3

= 1 P( x)
x =0

= 1 [P(0) + P(1) + P(2)]

= 1 [0.0025 + 0.015 + 0.045]
= 0.9375

Use of Poisson Model for Right-Turn Storage Lane Capacity

Adopted from California DOT method
The right-turn lane need to be
designed such that the number of
vehicles turning right in any cycle will
exceed the lane capacity not more
than 4% of the time.

m x .e m
0.04 1
x!
x =0
C

Where: m = t / 3600 (i.e. average right-turn per cycle)

c = capacity of right-turn lane (veh.)
t = cycle time (sec)
= average right-turn vehicles per hr.

Example:
Cycle time, t = 60 sec.
Average right-turn traffic, = 100 veh/hr
Determine the right-turn lane capacity if it should only be
exceeded not more than 4% of the time.
Solution:
Average right-turn traffic per cycle, m = t/3600 = (100x60)/3600
= 1.667 veh/cycle
Thus,

1.667 x.e 1.667

0.04 1
x!
x =0
C

1.667 x.e 1.667

0.04 1
x!
x =0
C

P(x)

P(x)

1- P(x)

0.1888

0.1888

0.8112

0.3147

0.5035

0.4965

0.2623

0.7658

0.2342

0.1458

0.9116

0.0884

0.0607

0.9723

0.0277

0.0202

0.9925

0.0075

Satisfy the
equation

Hence, the capacity for the right-turn lane needed to satisfy the
requirement is, C = 4 vehicles

Negative Exponential Model

Used widely to explain the headway distribution
It explains the distribution of time intervals between random
events (in this case vehicle arrivals)
This model can be derived from Poisson model.

m x .e m (t ) x .e t
P( x) =
=
x!
x!
Where, = q / 3600
Thus,

and q = average hourly volume

qt x
(
) .e
P( x) = 3600
x!

qt
)
3600

qt

qt x ( 3600 )
(
) .e
P( x) = 3600
x!
If there are no arrivals in time interval t i.e. P(0), this means that the
headway t

P(0) = e

( qt / 3600 )

= probability the headway t

Thus,

P (ht t ) = e

( qt / 3600 )

Is called the Negative Exponential Model

HIGHWAY CAPACITY
DEFINITIONS & CONCEPTS

TYPES OF FACILITIES
Highways & streets
Transit facilities
Pedestrian facilities
Bicycle facilities

CATEGORIES OF FACILITIES
1. Uninterrupted flow:
no fixed elements, e.g. traffic signals,
external to traffic stream that cause
interruptions to traffic flow
traffic flow conditions are result of
interactions among vehicles in traffic
stream, and between vehicles and
geometric & environmental characteristics
of roadway

2. Interrupted flow:
have fixed elements causing periodic
interruptions to traffic flow, e.g. traffic
signals, stop signs etc
the devices cause traffic to periodically
stop (or significantly slow) irrespective
of how much traffic exists

 Uninterrupted and interrupted flow are

terms describing the type of facility,
not the quality of traffic flow at any
given time
Thus, an expressway experiencing
extreme congestion is still an
uninterrupted flow facility, as the
cause of congestion are internal to the
traffic stream

CAPACITY & LEVEL-OF-SERVICE CONCEPTS

A principal objective of capacity analysis is the estimation
of the maximum amount of traffic that can be
accommodated by a given facility
Traffic facilities generally operate poorly at or near
capacity, and facilities are rarely designed or planned to
operate in this range
Capacity analysis is also intended to estimate the
maximum amount of traffic that can be accommodated by
the facility while maintaining prescribed operational
qualities

 Capacity analysis is a set of procedures used to

estimate the traffic carrying ability of facilities over a
range of defined operational conditions.
It provides tools for analysis and improvement of
existing facilities, and for planning and design of future
facilities.
The definition of operational criteria is accomplished
using levels of service.
Ranges of operating conditions are defined for each
type of facility, and are related to amounts of traffic that
can be accommodated at each level.

CAPACITY
In general the maximum hourly rate at which persons or
vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or
uniform section of a lane or roadway during a given time
period under prevailing roadway, traffic, and control
conditions.
The time period used in most capacity analysis is 15-min,
which is considered to be the shortest interval during which
stable flow exists.
Capacity is defined for prevailing roadway, traffic, and control
conditions, which should be reasonably uniform for any
section of facility analysed.
The definition of capacity assumes that good weather and
pavement conditions exist.

Roadway conditions refer to geometric

characteristics of the street or highway

type of facility and its environment

no. of lanes (by direction)
lane and shoulder widths
lateral clearances
design speed
horizontal & vertical alignments

Traffic conditions refer to the

characteristics of the traffic stream using facility

Distributions of vehicle types in traffic

stream
Amount & distribution of traffic in available
lanes of the facility
Directional distribution of traffic

Control conditions refer to types and specific

design of control devices and traffic regulations present on a
given facility.

Location, type and timing of traffic signals are

critical control conditions affecting capacity.
Other important controls include STOP and
YIELD signs, lane use restrictions, turn
restrictions, etc.

 It is important to note that capacity refers

to a rate of vehicular or person flow during
a specified period of interest, most often a
peak 15-min period.
This recognises the potential for substantial
variations in flow during an hour, and
focuses analysis on intervals of maximum
flow.

LEVELS OF SERVICE
The concept of levels of service is defined as
a qualitative measure describing operational
conditions within a traffic stream, and their
perception by motorists and/or passengers.
A level-of-service (LOS) definition generally
describes these conditions in terms of such
factors as speed and travel time, freedom to
maneuver, traffic interruptions, comfort,
convenience, and safety.
Six LOS : A to F

LOS Definitions:
LOS A Represents free flow individual users are virtually
unaffected by presence of others in traffic stream,
low volumes, high speeds, low density
Freedom to select desired speed and to maneuver
within traffic stream is extremely high, controlled
only by speed limit & physical roadway conditions
The general level of comfort and convenience
provided to motorist, passenger or pedestrian is
excellent

LOS B In the range of stable flow, but presence of other users in

traffic stream begins to be noticeable.
Freedom to select desired speed is relatively unaffected,
but there is a slight decline in freedom to maneuver
compared to LOS A.
Level of comfort and convenience lessen coz presence of
others begins to affect individual behavior.
Associated with service volumes used in design of rural
highways.

LOS C In range of stable flow, but marks beginning of range of

flow in which operation of individual users becomes
significantly affected by interactions with others in traffic
stream.
Selection of speed is now affected by presence of
others, and maneuvering within traffic stream requires
substantial vigilance on part of driver.
Level of comfort and convenience declines noticeably
Suitable for urban design

LOS D
Represents high density, but stable flow
Speed & freedom to maneuver severely
restricted
Poor level of comfort & convenience
Small increases in traffic flow will
generally cause operational problems

LOS E
Represents operating conditions at or near capacity level
All speeds reduced to a low, but relatively uniform value
Freedom to maneuver extremely difficult, generally
accomplished by forcing a vehicle or pedestrian to give
way to accommodate such maneuvers
Comfort & convenience extremely poor, driver frustration
generally high
Operations usually unstable, small increases in flow will
cause breakdowns

LOS F
Used to define forced or breakdown flow
Condition exists wherever amount of traffic
approaching a point exceeds amount which can
traverse the point
Queues form behind such locations, arrival flow
exceeds discharge flow
Operations within queue stop & go waves,
extremely unstable

SERVICE FLOW RATES (SFR)

The maximum hourly rate at which persons
or vehicles can reasonably be expected to
traverse a point or uniform section of a lane
or roadway during a given time period under
prevailing roadway, traffic and control
conditions while maintaining a designated
LOS.
Generally taken for a 15-min time period

 Service flow rates are discrete values,

while LOS represents a range of
conditions.
Service flow rates are defined as
maximums for each LOS, they
effectively define flow boundaries
between the various LOS.

MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS (MOE)

These are parameters selected to define
LOS for each facility type
Represent those available measures that
best describe the quality of operation on
the facility
e.g. Table 1-2 of HCM

BASIC PRINCIPLES OF TRAFFIC FLOW

Traffic Flow Measures
Speed
Volume and/or rate of flow
Density

SPEED
Rate of motion distance per unit time
Average travel speed length of highway/street segment
divided by average travel time of vehicles traversing the
segment (incl stopped delays due to fixed interruptions etc)
Average running speed distance divided by average
running time to traverse the distance
Space mean speed both the above statistical term to
denote an average speed based on average travel time of
vehicles to traverse a segment of roadway
Time mean speed ave. of speeds measured at a point

 For capacity analysis, speeds are best measured by

observing travel times over a known length of highway
For uninterrupted flow facilities, in stable flow length
can be short, several hundred ft
For interrupted flow facilities segments should be
long enough to include those points of fixed
interruption of interest
Time mean speed generally not relevant in
evaluation of interrupted flow facilities, as travel time
lost to interruptions is a major component of the
evaluation

VOLUME & RATE OF FLOW

VOLUME: total number of vehicles that pass
over a given point or section of a lane or roadway
during a given time interval; may be expressed in
terms of annual, daily, hourly, sub-hourly periods

RATE OF FLOW: the equivalent hourly rate at

which vehicles pass over a given point or section
of a lane or roadway during a given time interval
less than one hour, usually 15-min.

PEAK HOUR FACTOR (PHF)

Defined as ratio of total hourly volume to the
maximum 15-min rate of flow within the hour
If 15-min periods are used, PHF = V / (4 x V15)
When PHF is known, it can be used to convert a
peak-hour volume to a peak rate of flow: v = V / PHF
where, v = rate of flow for a peak 15-min period, in vph;
V = peak-hour volume, in vph.

DENSITY
Defined as number of vehicles occupying a
given length of a lane or roadway, averaged
over time
A critical parameter describing traffic
operations
Describes the proximity of vehicles to one
another and reflects the freedom to
maneuver within the traffic stream

FACTORS AFFECTING CAPACITY, SFR, & LOS

Ideal Conditions
In principle, an ideal condition is one for which further
improvements will not achieve any increase in capacity
For e.g. ideal conditions for uninterrupted flow facilities
include:
12 feet lane widths
6-ft clearance between edge of travel lane and nearest
obstruction at roadside /median
70 mph design speed for multi-lane highway; 60 mph design
speed for two-lane highway
all passenger cars in traffic stream

 In most capacity analyses, prevailing

conditions are not ideal, and
computation of capacity, SFR, or LOS
must include adjustments to reflect this.
Prevailing conditions are generally
categorised as roadway, traffic or control
conditions

Roadway Conditions
Roadway factors include all of the geometric
parameters describing the roadway:
Type of facility and its environment
Lane widths
Shoulder widths and/or lateral clearances
Design speed
Horizontal & vertical alignments

For uninterrupted flow facilities, the general terrain of a

highway is categorised as follows:
Level terrain any combination of grades and horizontal &
vertical alignment permitting heavy vehicles to maintain
approximately the same speed as passenger cars; generally include
short grades of < 1-2%

Rolling terrain any combination of grades and horizontal &

vertical alignment causing heavy vehicles to reduce their speeds
substantially below those of passenger cars, but not causing heavy
vehicles to operate at crawl speeds for any significant length of time

Mountainous terrain any combination of grades and

horizontal & vertical alignment causing heavy vehicles to operate at
crawl speeds for significant distances or at frequent intervals

Heavy vehicles defined as any vehicle

having > 4 tires touching the pavement
Crawl speed the maximum sustained
speed which heavy vehicles can maintain on
an extended upgrade of a given percent

Traffic Conditions
1. Vehicle types
Heavy vehicles:

Trucks heavy vehicle primarily used to transport goods

Recreational vehicles heavy vehicle operated by private

motorist to transport recreational equipment or facilities

Buses

2. Lane use & directional distribution

Control Conditions
For interrupted flow facilities, the control of time
available for movement of specific traffic flows is a
critical element affecting capacity, SFR and LOS
Traffic signal type of control, signal phasing,
green time, cycle length
STOP and YIELD signs, 4-way STOP
Restriction on curb parking
Turn restriction
Lane use control, reversible lanes

Reduced lane width

The Highway Capacity Manual bases service volumes on ideal
highway conditions where the standard lane width is 3.65 m (12 ft).
Where the width of a traffic lane is reduced below this standard value
then reduced service volumes apply. The percentage reduction in
capacity are given in table 11.4.

Lateral clearance
It is believed that mountable kerbs and vertical kerbs less than 0.15 m (6 in.)
high have insignificant effect on traffic operation but retaining walls, lighting
columns etc. closer than 1.83 m (6 ft) from the carriageway edge have an
adverse effect.

Alignment
Where the highway alignment is such that speeds below
the design speed are necessary or where overtaking is
limited by lack of adequate sight distances then there is
likely to be a loss of capacity

Speed Reduction

Effect of gradient
The effect of gradient on highway capacity can be most
conveniently summarised as follows:
1. They are often associated with reduced passing sight distances:
this effect is taken account of in alignment.
2. Safe headways are less on uphill grades and greater on downhill
grades than on horizontal highways.
3. Trucks with normal loads travel more slowly on up-grades but
cars negotiate 6 - 7 per cent grades at speeds above which
capacity occurs.

See U
(Do Not Forget
Your Group
Project)