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Arkin, William M. - Gulf War - Secret History Vol.1
Arkin, William M. - Gulf War - Secret History Vol.1
Arkin, William M. - Gulf War - Secret History Vol.1
Arkin
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Where to start?
On Oct. 3, 1989, after assuming a host of covert Reagan-era
arrangements with Iraq that were intended to "balance" the Arab country
against fundamentalist Iran, President George Bush signed National
Security Directive 26 (NSD-26) "U.S. Policy Toward the Persian Gulf."
With regard to Iraq, the Top Secret directive stated: "The United States
should propose economic and political incentives for Iraq to moderate its
behavior and to increase our influence."
Reconstruction of Iraq's economy after eight years of war with Iran,
particularly in its oil sector, was seen as a way of securing "a U.S.
foothold in a potentially large export market." Saddam's nuclear,
biological and chemical weapons ambitions were recognized irritants, but
the administration thought commercial incentives would be more
attractive to Saddam than political ambitions.
By April 1990, when the Iraqi leader thrust himself into the public
limelight, announcing that Iraq would "make the fire eat up half of
Israel," the Bush administration had made quite an investment. The CIA
reported that month that "U.S. purchases of Iraqi oil have jumped from
about 80,000 barrels per day [b/d] in 1985-1987 to 675,000 b/d so far in
1990 -- about 24 percent of Baghdad's total oil exports and eight percent
of new U.S. oil imports." Iraq had become America's number two trading
partner in the Arab world, and was the largest importer of Americangrown rice. The Department of Energy had even purchased Iraqi oil for
use in the strategic petroleum reserve for a future war.
Yet there was also mounting congressional pressure to impose economic
sanctions on Iraq because of its human rights record, its weapons of mass
destruction programs and its increasingly hostile policy. Intelligence
specialists wrote of the country's increasingly precarious financial
position, and there were enormous financial improprieties in Iraqi
dealings, leading the Agriculture Department to recommend a cut-off of
Iraqi loans, as was mandated by law.
But the Bush White House would have none of it. In May, National
Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft personally asked Agriculture Secretary
Clayton Yeutter to stop any public announcement of a suspension.
Yeutter then overruled the Agriculture official administering the
program.
Administration spokesmen and apologists would later argue that their
Iraq policy had not contributed to the very capabilities American
servicemen and women would soon be facing. It is an argument that can
hardly be accepted. The Reagan and Bush administrations had authorized
$5.08 billion in loan guarantees to Iraq between 1983 and 1990.
Investigators later found that the Italian-owned Banco Nazionale del
Lavoro (BNL) issued another $4.5 billion in unauthorized loans, $1
billion of which were guaranteed by the Department of Agriculture.
Between 1985 and 1990, the Commerce Department approved 771
licenses for dual-use technology exports to Iraq, of which 82 went
directly to Iraqi military-related establishments. Fifteen times between
1983 and 1990, the U.S. government waived restrictions to allow items
that appeared on the State Department's restricted "Munitions List" to be
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exported to Saddam. The United States might not have armed Saddam,
but it freed up resources that effectively achieved the same goal.
Talking Points
As April Glaspie rushed to her meeting with Saddam on July 25, 1990
(she had gotten only two hours' notice), the July 18th "talking points"
from Washington, now declassified, governed her discussions. "The
United States takes no position on the substance of the bilateral issues
concerning Iraq and Kuwait," it directed. The day before the snap
meeting, in fact, Glaspie got yet another secret cable from the State
Department. "The U.S. is concerned about the hostile implications of
recent Iraq statements directed against Iraq's neighbors," it read. Yet it
repeated the now standard "we take no position" line, merely imploring
Iraq to be mindful of the fact that use of force was contrary to the United
Nations charter.
Were threats against Iraq emanating from other quarters? On July 19,
then-Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney was quoted publicly as saying
that the U.S. defense commitment extended to Kuwait during the IranIraq war was still valid. Later that day Pentagon spokesman Pete
Williams said that Cheney's remarks had been taken "with some degree
of liberty." Five days later, when Secretary of the Navy Lawrence Garrett
told a congressional committee that "our ships in the Persian Gulf were at
a "heightened state of vigilance," his spokesman said that he had made a
mistake.
The day before Glaspie's meeting, State Department spokeswoman
Margaret Tutweiler said "we do not have any defense treaties with
Kuwait, and there are no special defense or security commitments to
Kuwait." Assistant Secretary of State John Kelly told the House Foreign
Affairs Committee on July 30 that the United States was not obligated to
come to the military aid of Kuwait if Iraqi forces crossed the border.
Did the U.S. military leadership think an Iraqi invasion likely?
Conventional wisdom right to the 11th hour was that if the Iraqis moved
south, they would perhaps take the Bubiyan and Warbah islands off the
Iraqi coast, and possibly the southeastern sector of the Rumaylah oil
fields, which extended into Kuwait.
Up to the very last minute, while analysts at the Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA) and CIA argued that a full-scale invasion seemed
imminent, U.S. military leaders didn't believe it. Lt. Gen. Thomas Kelly,
director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Gen. Colin
Powell: "They're not going to invade. This is a shakedown."
On July 31, Chairman Powell chaired a meeting in the "tank," the Joint
Staff's secure conference room, to discuss the situation in Iraq. Gen. H.
Norman Schwarzkopf, commander of the U.S. Central Command, which
is responsible for the region, had flown up from his Tampa headquarters
to give his assessment of the situation. DIA hard-liners said there was
little doubt that an attack into Kuwait was imminent. Schwarzkopf didn't
agree. Like Kelly, he thought Saddam was bluffing, seeking to extort
concessions from Kuwait. A senior Kuwaiti military official had told
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reason, Hart said, was that the al-Sabah family believed "a small, poorlytrained and equipped force was less of a threat" to Iraq than a
professional military force. The Kuwaiti Air Force got more defense
dollars "because you can't occupy a palace with a fighter jet," Hart
recalled Kuwaiti officers saying.
Hart's eyewitness account, written while a student at the U.S. Army War
College following the Persian Gulf War, was never officially released by
the Army but has circulated on the internet.
Of Kuwait's three Army units, Hart recalled after the war, only the 35th
Armored Brigade moved to block the Iraqi invasion. Kuwait Air Force
(KAF) A-4Q Skyhawk and French Mirage F1 pilots flew sorties against
attacking Iraqi units, but within a day and a half, the planes had retreated
to Saudi Arabia or Bahrain after their two home bases were overrun.
By mid-day Aug. 3, Iraqi forces had taken up positions south of Kuwait
City. Iraqi tanks continued south along Kuwait's coastal highway to
occupy the emirate's main ports. An Iraqi force pursued elements of the
35th Brigade into the neutral zone north of Saudi Arabia.
"I don't think there's any question at all that he [Saddam Hussein] would
have eventually attacked Saudi Arabia," Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf
would tell David Frost in a PBS interview at the end of the war. "Nobody
on our side knew his intent; we had to assume that if he was militarily
capable of something, he might do it," Schwarzkopf would later write in
his autobiography, It Doesn't Take a Hero (Bantam Books, New York,
1992). Gen. Colin Powell, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
later said that at this juncture, everyone was "scared to death" of the
possibility of an Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia.
On the day before the invasion, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that
Iraqi forces between Basra and the Kuwaiti border numbered 150,000
troops and more than 1,000 tanks, supported by at least 10 additional
artillery battalions. Hundreds of logistics vehicles were moving men and
massive quantities of munitions and supplies south right after the
invasion. By Aug. 6, intelligence was reporting elements of at least 11
divisions either in or entering Kuwait. Though there was no firm
evidence that an invasion of Saudi Arabia was Saddam's intention, no
one wanted to be caught flat-footed a second time.
Tanks a Lot
But as Lt. Col. Hart reported from his vantage point inside Kuwait City,
"Saddam's forces had reached their logistics culminating point and his
units would have to live off the land." Iraqi units immediately began
scavenging food and water in Kuwait, confirming the lack of in-depth
supplies.
There were a lot of other signs that Iraq's performance in the invasion
had hardly gone like clockwork. The emir and the crown prince of
Kuwait escaped to Saudi Arabia, we now know, because the Iraqi
operation to seize the emir failed when Baghdad planners failed to
recognize a one-hour time difference between Kuwait City and Baghdad.
Thus the seizure operation became an uncoordinated attack by special
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forces and the Republican Guard units that failed to capture the senior
royal family members.
When Iraqi armor made it to Kuwait City, Hart later wrote, they decided
to push their tanks and tracked vehicles through the city instead of
circumventing the built-up urban area. As a result, the heavy units
became bogged down and often lost. This permitted the bulk of the
Kuwaiti 15th Brigade, located south of the city near the Al Ahmadi oil
fields, to escape to Saudi Arabia. Despite the fact their command had not
been placed on alert, some 30 Kuwaiti fighters still managed to fly to
safety. And Iraq's naval force also failed to prevent two Kuwaiti missile
boats from escaping the harbor.
The intelligence system might not have wanted to focus on this evidence,
given valid concerns of Iraq's short-term intentions toward Saudi Arabia.
But there were also reports that Kuwaiti military units succeeded in
inflicting damage on Iraq that made it seem as if the vaunted and battlehardened force was less formidable than its equipment inventories
suggested.
The KAF claimed that its airplanes destroyed 37 Iraqi helicopters and
shot down two Iraqi fighters in two days of battle, and killed numerous
enemy armored vehicles on the ground as its aircraft flew to safety.
Three Kuwaiti air defense units equipped with U.S. Hawk surface-to-air
missiles reported that they shot down 23 Iraqi aircraft and helicopters.
Were the Kuwaiti claims valid? Who had time to validate them? Analysts
from the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and Defense Intelligence
Agency evaluated the Iraqi force as more than sufficient to conduct a
successful follow-on attack into Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province.
The White House was told that Saddam Hussein intended to further his
advance into Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis didn't particularly want to
quibble, given that the Iraqis never made an attempt to contact the Saudi
government to express otherwise.
At the end of the war, U.S. Army intelligence would learn from the seven
Iraqi general officers that were captured in the ground campaign that
Hart's skepticism on the ground in Kuwait City was closer to reality than
the tale told from satellite images.
"Regardless of how difficult and frustrating the mobilization and
deployment of U.S. and coalition forces may have seemed to us, ours
was a clockwork operation compared to that of the Iraqi Army," a now
partially declassified CENTCOM debriefing summary says. "Most
infantry divisions were sent to the Kuwait theater undermanned, short of
equipment (or with poor equipment), and with little to no idea of what
they were to do upon arrival in their areas of responsibility, other than to
dig in and await orders."
It was a terrible quandary, and one that would confound U.S. intelligence
through the war and beyond: not knowing in the least what Iraq's
intentions were, and having to rely on mechanistic interpretations of the
enemy's military capabilities based upon huge numbers of hardware and
an enormous military infrastructure.
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defenses? Why hit railroads or ports? "Is this a mulligan stew?" Horner
asked.
At each question, Horner interrupted Warden as he started to answer,
turning to one of his staffers and directing him to look into the matter. At
one point Warden pried his way into Horner's monologue, offering
assistance. "Not your job," Horner cut him off. "We'll make sure. You
made an academic study. I've got to make it reality."
Horner directed his staff to eliminate the timelines from Instant Thunder:
"They serve no purpose other than to advertise a totally unrealistic
completion date."
Warden again pushed the idea of the isolation of Saddam Hussein. "It's
not imperative to get him," he said. "We need only to isolated him for a
while."
And that was it.
"Our goal," Horner responded, almost shouting now, "is to build an A-TO." The air tasking order, the immediate defensive battle plan, was his
immediate concern, and unlike Warden, he didn't believe for a moment
that this was a mistake.
"You're being overly pessimistic about those tanks," Warden said at one
point in reference to Iraqi armor. "Ground forces aren't important" to
Instant Thunder. "I don't believe they can move under our air
superiority."
A hush fell over the room. Warden quickly took it back.
"I'm being very, very patient, aren't I?" Horner said to no one in
particular.
"Yes, sir!" came a chorus of voices.
"I'm really being nice not to make the kind of response that you-all
would expect me to make, aren't I?"
"Oh, yes, sir!"
"If your army is getting overrun," Horner scowled, "who gives a shit
what you take out deep?" And with that, to Chuck Horner, John Warden
ceased to exist.
Fading Memories
Warden was dispatched by Horner back to Washington. But he hardly
disappeared or became irrelevant: Checkmate quietly assisted Horner's
planners, who took the handoff on Aug. 20 and began to build the
ultimate air campaign.
Was it just a clash of personalities, and was Instant Thunder the actual air
war, even if it was under new guise and with a new master?
One possible answer exists in the target list. Instant Thunder had
identified 84 targets in Iraq. By Jan. 15, 1991, that number had grown to
487. At the end of the war, more than 1,200 had been hit.
In an interview from Montgomery, Ala., where Warden is now retired, I
asked him to reflect. We "knew at an acceptable level" Iraqi centers of
gravity in August, Warden says. I'm convinced that destroying those 84
targets would create "sufficient paralysis to take advantage of the
unraveling of the system," he says. Warden likens the impact of Instant
Thunder bombing to cutting off the top of an anthill; once you peel off
84 targets, then finding the next 100 is easier.
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As Warden sees it, had Instant Thunder been implemented the first week
of September, the Iraqis would have had no preparation time. As a result,
he says, it could have had a more of a cataclysmic impact than in January
1991. "As we moved forward in time, the chances of successfully
executing the plan decreased," Warden asserts.
This seems to be just another airman who laments that he didn't get to
fight the perfect war. Yet many of Warden's confederates are not nearly
as convinced that the effects of airpower are understood well enough to
posit success in September. Says one senior officer from Checkmate, it
took ten times more than Warden predicted it would take to achieve
Central Command's goals. "We really overestimated our ability," he says.
"What we achieved was orders of magnitude faster than World War II or
Korea." But it was General Horner who was more realistic about what
should be expected from airpower.
The Enemy Decides
Warden's was a brilliant conception and a bold start. Had he not taken the
reigns of leadership and designed his war in August 1990, many Air
Force veterans of Checkmate and Horner's staff believe today that it is
possible that "air-land battle" or some other 1980's design for the use of
airpower would have prevailed.
As Instant Thunder gained momentum, though, additional missions,
targets, objectives, and constraints were added. Somewhere in there were
the initial 84 targets and the original design. But the accumulation diluted
and masked Warden's shot at surgical paralysis. By the time
Schwarzkopf launched "Operation Desert Storm" so many more bombing
targets had been added that became impossible to ascribe effects only to
attacks in Baghdad or against specific targets.
Horner's own recollections of August 1990 are both charitable towards
Warden, and rigid on the enduring debate over strategic bombing.
Though he says now he could not fault Warden for the "glittering list of
targets he laid out," he says Warden's problem is that he saw war "in
terms of the SIOP," the Single Integrated Operational Plan model of
nuclear targets in the Soviet Union. "Execute this plan and the enemy is
defeated," Horner scoffs. "Well, good. But what if he decides not to be
defeated? What do we do then?"
What would Saddam do then? By January 1991, Horner would have so
many combat aircraft at his disposal that he could simultaneously fight
on the battlefield and oversee an essentially autonomous strategic air
campaign in collaboration with Warden's Checkmate.
But it is wrong for anyone to think that the plan that was executed in
early1991 was the plan that Warden had proposed in the searing days of
August 1990.
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Horner points out, as does Schwarzkopf in his own defense, that people
like Leide would go on to be promoted. Many participants involved in
making decisions during the Gulf War agree that although Schwarzkopf
was quick to express his displeasure, he also would tend to move on to
the next subject. He would not dwell on whatever prompted his
displeasure.
But there could also be major league grudges. After Schwarzkopf and Lt.
Gen. Harry E. Soyster, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, went
toe to toe on the nature of the Iraq threat to Saudi Arabia prior to the
invasion (DIA rejected CENTCOM's planning assumptions as too
pessimistic), sources say Schwarzkopf never spoke to his old friend
again.
In November, an old friend and subordinate, Lt. Gen. Calvin A.H.
Waller, was specially imported from Ft. Lewis, Washington as Deputy
Commander in Chief, CENTCOM to act as a buffer.
"To be perfectly candid and fair the atmosphere was a little tense,"
Waller would later say, "many people said to me when I arrived there
that many of the staff walked around with a stunned mullet look, sort of a
closed caption on their face, staring off into the wild blue yonder... not
quite knowing what to expect or what was going to happen."
Though he denied that this was the reason for his assignment to Saudi
Arabia, he said he uniquely knew "what was required in working with
Norman Schwarzkopf" after four assignments together. "The blood
would start around the shirt collar and then it would work its way up to
the jawline and then to the ears and by the time it got to the ears you
ought to watch out because there was going to be a minor eruption and if
it got to the top of the ears, watch out, because usually there was going to
be an eruption..." Waller said.
The bear wasn't the only one who needed to be caged. As Waller said,
the staff "needed a little tender loving care and a few pats on the back
and someone to let them know that they wouldn't suffer a severe sucking
chest wound if they made a minor mistake." (Calvin A. H. Waller, who
retired from the Army as a three-star Army General, died on May 9, 1996
of a heart attack in Washington, D.C. He was 58)
The Brass
All of the senior officers would find their own ways to deal with the bear.
Most would make a cardinal rule of disagreeing with him only in private
and would use their subordinates to float trial balloons. "Reconnaissance
by fire," they called it, to feel out the CINC's views.
In some ways, senior officers point out, Schwarzkopf really had three
personalities: his public persona, his staff behavior in front of
subordinates and his "private" character. "Commanders in public are far
different than in private if for no other reason than they are often ham
actors," says one senior general officer. Schwarzkopf, he says, "acted like
a different person in public than he did in private. He was driven to be
remembered in a certain way and always was on stage when in public."
In private, this general says of his experiences dealing with Schwarzkopf
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one on one, "he was intelligent, reasoned and quite open to ideas and
arguments."
In contrast to many Army, Navy and Marine Corps commanders, who
would all develop tense relationships with the CINC, Horner and his
strategic air campaign chief, Brig. Gen. Buster C. Glosson, had cordial
relations with Schwarzkopf, and unique personal access. The two briefed
the bear privately every evening, and they became deft at catering to his
mercurial demands (Glosson was particularly adept at passing late
breaking gossip from Washington).
Horner recounts one of his tactics: "One night early in January, we had
reports of helicopters coming across the border... [and] Schwarzkopf was
very confused, the more confused he got the madder he got, because he
wanted a straight story, and his staff kept calling me up" reporting back a
childhood telephone game of confused information. "Well, I was busy
trying to find out what was going on, so at 8 o'clock the hot line rang and
they'd all warned me, so I picked up the phone and I said, what in the hell
do you want? And he said, now Chuck, calm down!"
A Marine Corps post-war study on command and control quotes Brig.
Gen. Richard Neal, Schwarzkopf's operations chief, describing the
requirement for the top commanders themselves to have actual "face"
time with the CINC and not leave matter to subordinate staffers or liaison
officers. "Brigadier generals are link colonels, the CINC listens politely
to major generals, but you have to be a lieutenant general to be believed,"
Neal said.
Reagan-like in his simplicity, on some matters, the bear made decisions
based upon intuition--big picture decisions that would later distress his
own component commands. He seemed to fully appreciate the
psychological and unquantifiable impact of bombing, even if he didn't
understand airpower. And when the ground war would begin, he "read"
the Iraqi defeat, pushing to accelerate the army's advance. Okay, he didn't
see how weak the Iraqi's were before the ground war, nor could he ever
conceive that airpower had largely finished off Saddam's legions. He was
army and armor down to his skivvies: The Schwarzkopf history book
would have to be about ground war, which to the bear, was the only war
there was.
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commanders to get the word out to American troops and civilians who
wanted to worship.
"We will need to have the help of everybody to pull this off," the
chaplain said.
In deployment to the "sandbox," as troops affectionately called Saudi
Arabia, soldiers coped not only with the stress and boredom of
impending warfare; they additionally suffered culture shock in defending
the Saudi kingdom. No doubt the Saudi decision to allow infidel forces
on their soil was a difficult one, and American commanders and
politicians bent over backward to assuage Saudi "sensitivities." But in
doing so, geopolitical interests outweighed American values. It is a
scandalous compromise that continues to this day.
No Fun, No God
On Aug. 30, Gen. Schwarzkopf issued General Order 1. "Operation
Desert Shield places U.S. Armed Forces into USCENTCOM AOR
countries where Islamic Law and Arabic customs prohibit or restrict
certain activities that are generally permissible in Western societies," the
order began. There would be no alcohol, no gambling, no pornography-in fact, no "body building magazines, swim-suit editions of periodicals,
lingerie or underwear advertisement, and catalogues ... [that displayed]
portions of the human torso (i.e., the area below the neck, above the
knees and inside the shoulder)." As soldiers say, in other words, no fun.
Although the order forbade entrance into mosques by non-Moslems, no
other matters of religion were officially covered. Still, chaplains were
told that while they would be allowed to deploy with their units, they
would be referred to as "morale support officers."
They were further instructed to remove all of their branch insignia (cross
or tablets) in the presence of Saudi personnel, and conduct worship
services only behind closed doors or in private settings. Soldiers were
told not to wear crucifixes or other religious articles. Photos, audiotapes
or any publicity of American religious activities, Jewish or not, were
prohibited.
As time went by, restrictions on certain religious activities, such as the
overt presence of chaplains, were eased. In October, however, the news
media reported on a Saudi orientation booklet for soldiers that advised
troops not to talk about Israel or "the Jewish lobby." The pamphlet drew
protests from Jewish organizations, which called the advice an affront to
their beliefs and to the American way. It was a distasteful indignity with
emotional and historical overtones.
Non-Combatants, Non-Persons
The presence of Jewish soldiers would continue to be kept quiet from the
Saudis. But you couldn't hide the women.
"As the center of the Muslim world, we could not afford to be as flexible
as some other countries in matters of public behavior," wrote Gen.
Khalid bin Sultan in his autobiography, "Desert
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would contact or re-contact more than 400 sources through this effort.
"Former Iraqi military ... provided significant insights into the Iraqi
military operations and capabilities," says the partially declassified After
Action Report.
Military intelligence and the CIA interrogated two high-level sources
repeatedly. The first was WES 2901, the code name for a retired Iraqi
major general who had been debriefed by the CIA at its "Westport"
facility in Germany (hence the WES designation) and recontacted after
the invasion. Warden even sent one of his colonels to speak with WES
2901 "to get a feel for the Iraqi mindset," the colonel says.
WES 2901 was later flown to Washington for exhaustive debriefings by
the Operational Group. Set up in an office and given information on the
invasion and Iraqi deployments, he provided his own assessments and
analyses of the situation based on his experience. Throughout Desert
Shield and into the war, intelligence maintained contact with WES 2901,
and he provided analyses in response to intelligence requests.
While WES 2901 might not have possessed much "current" intelligence,
the second U.S. source, IZAR -0002-91, did. IZAR-0002-91 was an Iraqi
military officer who defected to Saudi Arabia after the invasion and
underwent extensive debriefing by the CIA, DIA and the Operational
Support Detachment of the Army's 513th Military Intelligence Brigade.
More than 100 intelligence reports were produced on the basis of IZAR0002-91's information. The officer identified dozens of leadership and
command-and-control targets, all of which were subsequently attacked,
sometimes within hours of their identification.
Cut In, Cut Out
As the standoff continued, Iraqi deserters, and later prisoners of war,
would prove an abundant source of data, particularly tactical information.
But in the early days, agents reporting to foreign governments were one
of the most lucrative sources of information.
"Mountain Hall," reporting from Israel, was particularly voluminous: The
CIA and DIA had established exchange programs with Israel to share
intelligence, and Mountain Hall-compartmented material from Israeli
analysts was particularly useful in providing insight regarding Iraqi
ballistic missiles and nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons.
Though publicly discredited because of exaggerated reporting-like the
infamous but later discredited "incubator" tales of Iraqi soldiers
removing babies from respirators at Kuwait City hospitals to die-Kuwaiti
resistance actually proved to be an excellent source of intelligence,
according to two officers involved in the program.
With access to fax machines and satellite telephones, the resistance
provided a running commentary on Iraqi actions in and around Kuwait
City. Within days of the invasion, an informal resistance already was
taking down street signs and removing house numbers to confuse Iraqi
special units that were canvassing neighborhoods for westerners, highranking Kuwaiti officials and military officers. In September, Kuwaiti
resistance accurately reported that Iraqi engineers were placing 40-pound
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the Black Hole, seemed to agree, that the Iraqi leadership was indeed the
first targeting priority, followed by infrastructure such as
communications, electricity and oil facilities.
Yet it was abundantly clear that Washington was obsessed with nuclear,
biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons. When Glosson went to
Washington in early October to brief President Bush on the outlines of
the plan to bomb Iraq, Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf's staff suggested
that the name for the target "priority-two" target category labeled
"infrastructure" be re-designated "Nuclear-Chemical-Biological
Capability" to reflect the national emphasis.
That didn't mean that the Black Hole had any new targets. Other than the
nondescript Salman Pak center on a finger-like peninsula of the Tigris
River 25 kilometers south of Baghdad, there was nothing else to bomb.
By November, intelligence would identify three additional facilities near
Baghdad that it labeled "suspect" BW -related. Two were in Abu Ghraib,
a western suburb (one being the infamous "baby milk" factory, which
will be addressed later in this series). The third was a suspect production
site at Taji, north of the city.
Based on the design of the storage bunkers at Salman Pak, imagery
analysts also identified 35 12-frame bunkers located at dispersed eight
ammunition depots from Basra to northern Iraq as potential vaults for
special weapons. Seventeen of the 35 had "probable" refrigeration
equipment and duct work near or on their entrances, Top Secret reports
stated. Air conditioning "might" be related to biological weapons, CIA
and DIA analysts concluded.
In the Dark
A month before the Iraqi invasion, the CIA issued two Top Secret reports
- "Iraq's Growing Arsenal: Programs and Facilities" and "Beating
Plowshare into Swords" - on Saddam's extensive industrial infrastructure.
Though the reports described in detail the functions of industrial
facilities, they were also decidedly limited in terms of what the agency
knew. The problem, "Iraq's Growing Arsenal" reported, was that "...
many entities are false end users, passing the materials acquired from
foreign suppliers directly to enterprises involved in military projects,
including chemical and biological warfare." In other words, the BW
program was being hidden behind vaccines, veterinary medicine and
food research.
Intelligence analysts did not know if there were produced agents, nor
where they were, but still the planners had to consider the possibility of
infecting the Iraqi population, coalition soldiers, and adjoining nations. A
fierce internal battle raged from October to well into December over
whether even to attack BW bunkers. Many in Washington argued that it
was too risky altogether to bomb BW facilities.
Generals Schwarzkopf and Horner argued that the risks could be
minimized with the proper targeting technique. Attacks would take place
at dawn, when there were low winds. Exposure to the sun's ultraviolet
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or so the theory went. But with stealth fighters, air planners didn't
necessarily need a missile to poke holes in the Baghdad shield. A
technical issue led targeting planners in the Central Command "Black
Hole" to mistrust the Tomahawk even more: Its "time on target" could
not be accurately predicted, complicating the split-second choreography
of massive air strikes. Moreover, the cruise missile's 1,000 lb. warhead
was a lightweight pretender to its nuclear-armed cousins originally
designed for Cold War missions.
Up to mid-September, all Tomahawk targets selected by the Black Hole
were independent of manned aircraft strikes. But starting in October,
after a series of Top Secret exercises code-named "Nemean Lion," some
cruise missiles were incorporated into the choreography of the strategic
attack plan. Air defenses were downgraded as a Tomahawk target and
electrical power facilities in and around central Iraq were earmarked for
the cruise missiles.
Skepticism about Tomahawk was not helped by the fact that preparing
the missile targeting plan would take the entire five-month duration of
Operation Desert Shield. The targeting process seemed plagued with
problems and the workload to prepare the missiles even under the best of
circumstances was enormous. One mission required several weeks to plot
out, and only the command centers at the U.S. Atlantic and Pacific Fleets
were capable of generating the complex and lengthy computer
commands needed.
Tomahawk navigates by the "terrain contour matching guidance system,"
or TERCOM. A radar altimeter periodically scans below the missile and
a computer measures a profile of the terrain features, comparing the
"fingerprint" with an on-board digital map to adjust the flight route.
Since the missile would drift as much as 2,200 feet during an hour of
flight with inertial guidance, the TERCOM "scenes" had to be
sufficiently large -- more one mile square -- so that the missile could find
a landmark to correct its path.
For terminal accuracy, Tomahawk uses a supplement to TERCOM for its
final leg. An optical sensor compares digitized data collected by the
missile near the targets with stored black and white photographs, and the
missile maneuvers based upon its location within the scene. The Defense
Mapping Agency, working with the Navy, scrambled to produce the
most basic digital scenes for Iraq. As targets were chosen, and as Iraqi air
defenses were mapped, routes were selected to avoid having the missiles
shot down or hitting tall objects, and terminal scenes near intended
targets were produced. On numerous occasions in the fall of 1990,
targeters found errors in scene preparation or procedures that sent them
back to the drawing boards. In one instance, they found that many scenes
were incompatible with the time of night Tomahawks were scheduled to
fly, so thousands of additional hours were required to ready the missiles.
A Battle of the Missiles
Of course, F-117 stealth fighters also required enormous investments in
time and unprecedented levels of detail in order for pilots to have the
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target folders required to hit their aimpoints. But it was the Tomahawk
that developed a reputation as an unreliable drain on resources. If all
systems operated as planned, the missile could strike within 100 feet of
its aimpoint, or roughly double that of the Air Force's CALCM. With its
early generation, single-channel Global Positioning Satellite (GPS)
receiver, CALCM seemed to have greater flexibility to the Air Forcedominated Black Hole. But, of course, air planners never had to defend it
in an open debate, given that the missile remained a closely guarded
secret.
Tomahawk also had its own super-secret component, the ability to attack
electrical power transformer yards with a cluster bomb-like warhead that
disperses hundreds of spools of tiny conductive filaments to cause
distribution lines and transformers to short circuit. The weapon -- code
named Kit 2 -- had been developed under yet another Top Secret
program, conceived by war planners fascinated with the potential for
"non-lethal warfare." The special warheads would disable electrical
distribution without destroying generating capacity. Saddam's highly
advanced national electric grid, one of the finest in the Third World,
would prove an optimum bullseye to test the new capability.
Thus, Tomahawk and the Kit 2 became central to the air war's systemic
attack on Iraq, while CALCM ended up being a marginal weapon. In the
original Instant Thunder plan -- 84 targets and a few hundred aircraft -CALCMs were dominent. However, over the five months of Desert
Shield, the allied air armada grew to almost 2,000 fighters and bombers,
and the target list grew to some 5,000 aimpoints.
What is more, though Air Force boosters would later contend that
CALCM's were the only systems that could reach northern Iraqi targets
in the opening salvos of Desert Storm, only one out of the eight targets
eventually assigned to the Barksdale bombers would be located in the
north.
The Tomahawk, as we will examine later, would have its own share of
problems. But CALCM had a most inauspicious debut. Classified Air
Force records, an examination of the targets on the ground, and
interviews with eyewitnesses to the strikes show that four of the 39
missiles failed to launch, and of the remaining 35, no more than 28 hit
their aimpoints. Of the eight targets, two were missed completely, and
civilian "collateral damage" occurred at three others.
Across the street from the Basra main post office, at least one missile hit
a five-story apartment building, destroying the structure. The Amarah
telephone exchange located in the Yarmouk neighborhood was
destroyed, but four nearby homes and a Ba'ath party social club were
damaged by an errant CALCM. The worst damage occurred in the
southern Iraqi town of Diwaniyah. Eleven civilians were killed and 49
were wounded when CALCMs struck apartment buildings and homes
adjacent to the downtown telephone exchange and telecommunications
tower. The Diwaniyah strike would be the worst case of collateral
damage on the first night of Desert Storm, but since the Air Force never
revealed CALCM targets, the results would never appear to blemish its
record.
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For a full year after Desert Storm, CALCM would remain secret. Then,
on the first anniversary of Operation Desert Storm, the Air Force
revealed the existence of the missile. As the industry newsletter Navy
News dryly reported, the revelation came only after Time magazine
crowned the Navy's Tomahawk as "missile of the year."
Some wars never end.
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