For iimmediate rrelease Feb

bruary 25, 2
2016

Febrruary 2016
Frranklin
n&M
Marshall
College P
Poll
SUMMAR
S
RY OF F
FINDINGS
Pre
epared b
by:
Center for Opinion
n Research
Floy
yd Institu
ute for P
Public Policy
Fra
anklin & Marsha
all Colle
ege

Febrruary 25, 2016

Table of Contents
KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................... 3
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RACES ...................................................................................... 4
TOM WOLF JOB PERFORMANCE...................................................................................... 8
PRESIDENT OBAMAS JOB PERFORMANCE ...................................................................... 9
ATTACHMENT A .......................................................................................................... 11
ATTACHMENT B .......................................................................................................... 12
ATTACHMENT C .......................................................................................................... 13
ATTACHMENT D .......................................................................................................... 14
MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT............................................................................ 15

Key Findings
The February 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania registered voters
shows continuing dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and with the states politicians.
Two in three (67%) registered voters believe the state is on the wrong track, up from 62% in
October, and nearly half (47%) say that government and politicians are the biggest problems
facing the state; concerns primarily related to the state budget impasse.
The presidential primary race in Pennsylvania shows some stability for the Democrats,
with Hillary Clinton holding a sizable lead over Bernie Sanders, 48% to 27%, which is
comparable to the lead she held in January. Pennsylvanians preferences in the Republican
presidential race continue to change. Donald Trump (22%) leads, as he has since October, but
the order of preference for his challengers continues shuffling. Marco Rubio (16%), John Kasich
(15%), and Ted Cruz (12%) are all in a close contest for second. The Republican race is closer
among likely primary voters, with the top four candidates separated by only five points.

Preside
ential Prim
mary Race
es
Democra
ats
Hillary
H
Clinto
on holds a siizable lead in
n the presideential race am
mong registeered Democrrats
in Pennsy
ylvania. Seccretary Clintton leads herr closest rivaal, Senator B
Bernie Sandeers, 48% to 227%,
with 18%
% reporting they
t
are still undecided. Secretary C
Clintons leadd is consisteent with resuults
from our January surrvey, althoug
gh she led Seenator Sandeers by a larger margin inn October (seee
Figure 1)). Secretary Clintons
C
leaad is similar among likelly voters, 511% to 29%.
Figure 1:

Democcratic Presideential Primarry, Pennsylvaania Voters Feebruary 20166

If the Democratic
D
prima
ary election for president was beiing held today w
would you vote forr ?

Both
B
Democrratic candidaates are view
wed favorablyy by Democcratic voters in the state ((see
Figure 2)). Nearly tw
wo in five reg
gistered Dem
mocrats say tthey have a ffavorable oppinion of botth
Secretary
y Clinton (65
5% favorablee and 28% unfavorable)
u
and Senatorr Sanders (62% favorablle
and 21% unfavorablee).
Figure 2:

Favora
ability Rating
gs of Democratic Presiden
ntial Candidattes among Reegistered
Democcrats, Pennsy
ylvania Voterss February 20016

Republiccans
Pennsylvaniaans preferen
nces in the Republican prresidential raace continuee to change.
Donald Trump
T
(22%) leads in thee state, while the order oof preferencee for his chaallengers
continuess shuffling. Marco Rubiio (16%), Jo
ohn Kasich ( 15%), and T
Ted Cruz (122%) are in a cclose
contest fo
or second, while
w
one in four
f
(25%) remains
r
undeecided abouut their preferrence. Goveernor
Kasichs support has risen substaantially sincee January (seee Figure 3). The race is much tightter
among likely Republlican voters, with the top
p four candiddates separatted by only aabout five pooints
(Trump 21%,
2
Rubio 18%, Kasich
h 16%, Cruzz 16%).
Figure 3:

Repub
blican Presideential Primarry, Pennsylvan
nia Voters Feebruary 20166
If the Republican
R
prima
ary election for president was beiing held today wo
would you vote forr ?

Registered
R
Reepublicans do
d not expresss positive fe
feelings abouut all of theirr candidates (see
Figure 4)). Nearly as many registtered Republlicans in the state have aan unfavorabble (42%)
opinion of
o Donald Trrump as feell favorably to
oward him ((45%). Senaator Cruz alsso has relativvely
high unfaavorable ratiings among Republicans
R
s (48% favorrable and 33% unfavorabble). Senatoor
Rubio is the only Rep
publican can
ndidate tested that has str
trongly posittive favorabiility ratings
among reegistered Rep
publicans (6
61% favorable and 19% uunfavorablee).

Figure 4:

Favora
ability Rating
gs of Republican Presiden
ntial Candidattes among Reegistered
Repub
blicans, Pennssylvania Voteers February 2016

Tom Wolf
W Job Pe
erformanc
ce
One
O in three (31%)
(
registtered Pennsy
ylvania voterrs believes G
Governor Woolf is doing aan
excellen
nt or good job as governor, which
h is a decreaase from the October (366%) and Auggust
(39%) po
olls. Only haalf (45%) off Democrats rate his perfformance as excellent or good, ddown
from 57%
% in Octoberr. Governorr Wolfs job performancee ratings aree similar to G
Governors
Rendell and
a Corbett but lower th
han Governor Ridge at thhis point in th
their first term
ms (see Figuure
5).

Figure 5:

Comparison of Pen
nnsylvania Go
overnors Job Performancee Ratings
How wou
uld you rate the wa
ay that [fill Goverrnor] is handling hhis job as governorr? Would you say he
is doing
an excellent job
b, a good job, only a fair job, or a pooor job as governoor?

Preside
ent Obamas Job Performanc
P
ce
Two
T in five (4
42%) registeered Pennsyllvania voterss believe Preesident Obam
ma is doing an
excellen
nt or good job as Pressident, which
h is about thhe same as inn recent survveys. Two inn
three (70
0%) of the staates registerred Democraats provide tthe presidentt with a favoorable job
performaance rating, and
a only onee in three (36
6%) indepenndents does. One in ten ((9%) registerred
Republiccans rate his performancee favorably. President O
Obamas job performancee ratings are
better thaan President Bushs ratin
ngs in Pennssylvania at a similar poinnt in his pressidency (Figuure
6).

Figure 6:

Comparison of Preesidential Job Performancee Ratings, Peennsylvania

How would you rate the way
w that [fill President] is handlingg his job as Presideent? Would you saay he
is doing
g an excellent jo
ob, a good job, onlly a fair job, or a ppoor job as Presiddent?

Methodology
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews
conducted February 13 - 21, 2016. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion
Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
The Poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The
data included in this release represent the responses of 985 Pennsylvania registered voters,
including 486 Democrats, 371 Republicans, and 128 Independents. The sample of registered
voters was obtained from Labels & Lists. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about
the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and on-line depending on each
respondents preference. Survey results were weighted (gender, region and party registration)
using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as
reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points when the design effects from
weighting are considered. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources
of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Nonresponse bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey
or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer
process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases
related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions

10

Attachment A
Democratic Presidential Primary: Registered Democrats, Pennsylvania February 2016
If the Democratic primary election for president was being held today and the candidates included (rotated) Hillary Clinton, and
Bernie Sanders, would you vote for Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote?
Clinton

Sanders

Other

Do Not Know

46%
58%
48%
36%
16%

44%
23%
21%
26%
16%

0%
1%
5%
24%
43%

11%
17%
25%
14%
25%

41%
53%

34%
22%

10%
5%

15%
20%

35%
42%
51%

40%
36%
23%

11%
7%
6%

14%
15%
20%

53%
42%
49%

17%
29%
31%

9%
7%
5%

21%
22%
15%

53%
38%
53%

17%
35%
28%

9%
9%
5%

21%
18%
14%

48%
49%

26%
33%

7%
2%

19%
15%

43%
48%
51%

34%
27%
24%

6%
7%
3%

17%
18%
22%

49%
45%
51%

24%
25%
31%

5%
10%
5%

22%
20%
13%

47%
48%

24%
28%

8%
6%

21%
18%

34%
52%

31%
26%

16%
4%

19%
18%

59%
49%
35%
49%
46%
42%
53%

28%
29%
29%
22%
15%
32%
26%

4%
7%
4%
10%
15%
7%
7%

9%
15%
32%
19%
24%
20%
14%

42%
56%
49%

34%
27%
20%

7%
7%
6%

17%
10%
24%

Ideology*

Extremely liberal
Slightly liberal
Moderate
Slightly conservative
Extremely conservative
Gender*

Male
Female
Age**

Under 35
35-54
Over 55
Education

HS or less
Some college
College degree
Income**

Under 35
35-75
Over 75
Race

White
Nonwhite
Marital Status

Single, Never Married

Married
Not currently married
Religious Affiliation

Protestant
Catholic
Other, unaffiliated

Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist

Yes
No
Gun Owner*

Yes
No
Region

Philadelphia
Northeast
Allegheny
Southwest
Northwest
Central
Southeast
Employment**

Fulltime
Other
Retired

* p<0.01

11

** p<0.05

Attachment B
Republican Presidential Primary: Registered Republicans, Pennsylvania February 2016
If the Republican primary election for president was being held today would you vote for (rotated) Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb
Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, or aren't you sure how you would vote?
Bush

Carson

Cruz

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Do Not Know

0%
11%
6%
4%
2%

0%
0%
7%
6%
5%

0%
0%
3%
7%
29%

16%
30%
21%
15%
9%

0%
20%
16%
15%
20%

25%
27%
17%
27%
17%

60%
11%
31%
27%
19%

5%
2%

6%
6%

12%
13%

15%
15%

16%
17%

26%
17%

21%
30%

0%
2%
5%

13%
7%
4%

6%
18%
11%

15%
13%
16%

34%
13%
16%

13%
23%
22%

19%
24%
26%

4%
3%
4%

6%
4%
6%

14%
14%
10%

5%
14%
20%

15%
13%
19%

27%
22%
19%

30%
28%
22%

2%
2%
4%

4%
5%
7%

12%
18%
9%

12%
14%
17%

14%
17%
20%

21%
18%
24%

35%
27%
19%

4%
0%

5%
9%

12%
14%

15%
15%

17%
9%

21%
32%

25%
21%

3%
4%
4%

0%
6%
5%

8%
14%
4%

10%
15%
18%

29%
15%
17%

13%
23%
22%

36%
24%
29%

3%
5%
3%

6%
5%
3%

16%
8%
10%

14%
16%
16%

15%
20%
14%

18%
25%
28%

28%
21%
26%

3%
4%

9%
4%

19%
8%

14%
16%

13%
19%

15%
26%

26%
25%

4%
3%

4%
7%

13%
11%

14%
17%

16%
18%

26%
17%

22%
27%

7%
2%
0%
2%
2%
1%
9%

7%
0%
10%
6%
2%
7%
7%

7%
13%
0%
20%
14%
15%
7%

7%
15%
10%
17%
18%
10%
22%

8%
13%
22%
13%
12%
18%
20%

50%
30%
26%
12%
17%
25%
14%

15%
26%
32%
31%
35%
24%
20%

3%
3%
5%

4%
11%
3%

12%
22%
8%

16%
10%
17%

16%
14%
19%

25%
14%
22%

24%
26%
26%

Ideology*

Extremely liberal
Slightly liberal
Moderate
Slightly conservative
Extremely conservative
Gender

Male
Female
Age

Under 35
35-54
Over 55
Education

HS or less
Some college
College degree
Income

Under 35
35-75
Over 75
Race

White
Nonwhite
Marital Status

Single, Never Married

Married
Not currently married
Religious Affiliation

Protestant
Catholic
Other, unaffiliated

Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist

Yes
No
Gun Owner

Yes
No
Region*

Philadelphia
Northeast
Allegheny
Southwest
Northwest
Central
Southeast
Employment

Fulltime
Other
Retired

* p<0.01

12

** p<0.05

Attachment C
Job Performance: Governor Wolf, Pennsylvania February 2016
How would you rate the way that Tom Wolf is handling his job as governor? Would you say he is doing an

Only
Fair/Poor

Do Not Know

12%
45%
36%

80%
47%
59%

7%
7%
5%

58%
58%
35%
11%
7%

32%
36%
59%
84%
86%

11%
5%
7%
5%
8%

30%
33%

63%
60%

7%
7%

32%
29%
32%

51%
61%
63%

16%
10%
5%

28%
26%
36%

65%
69%
55%

7%
4%
8%

31%
31%
34%

61%
61%
59%

8%
7%
7%

31%
47%

62%
42%

7%
11%

33%
32%
31%

55%
62%
63%

12%
6%
6%

26%
27%
45%

70%
67%
45%

4%
6%
11%

22%
35%

72%
58%

7%
7%

21%
37%

76%
54%

3%
9%

46%
27%
41%
26%
21%
26%
38%

45%
66%
55%
68%
74%
70%
50%

9%
7%
4%
7%
5%
3%
13%

32%
31%
33%

62%
59%
61%

6%
10%
6%

Excellent/Good
Political party*
Republican
Democrat
Independent or something else
Ideology*
Extremely liberal
Slightly liberal
Moderate
Slightly conservative
Extremely conservative
Gender
Male
Female
Age*
Under 35
35-54
Over 55
Education*
HS or less
Some college
College degree
Income
Under 35
35-75
Over 75
Race*
White
Nonwhite
Marital Status
Single, Never Married
Married
Not currently married
Religious Affiliation*
Protestant
Catholic
Other, unaffiliated
Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist*
Yes
No
Gun Owner*
Yes
No
Region*
Philadelphia
Northeast
Allegheny
Southwest
Northwest
Central
Southeast
Employment
Fulltime
Other
Retired
* p<0.01

13

** p<0.05

Attachment D
Job Performance: President Obama, Pennsylvania February 2016
How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an

Only
Fair/Poor

Do Not Know

91%
29%
63%

0%
1%
1%

84%
83%
49%
9%
3%

15%
17%
49%
91%
97%

1%
0%
1%
0%
1%

36%
48%

63%
51%

0%
1%

43%
36%
45%

57%
64%
54%

0%
0%
1%

33%
38%
49%

66%
61%
51%

1%
1%
0%

44%
43%
45%

53%
57%
55%

2%
0%
0%

41%
69%

59%
29%

1%
2%

54%
38%
52%

45%
61%
47%

1%
0%
1%

37%
35%
59%

62%
65%
40%

1%
0%
1%

29%
48%

70%
51%

2%
0%

22%
53%

77%
46%

0%
1%

64%
38%
55%
25%
34%
34%
52%

35%
61%
45%
75%
65%
65%
48%

1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
0%

41%
44%
44%

59%
54%
56%

0%
2%
0%

Excellent/Good
Political party*
Republican
Democrat
Independent or something else
Ideology*
Extremely liberal
Slightly liberal
Moderate
Slightly conservative
Extremely conservative
Gender*
Male
Female
Age
Under 35
35-54
Over 55
Education*
HS or less
Some college
College degree
Income*
Under 35
35-75
Over 75
Race*
White
Nonwhite
Marital Status*
Single, Never Married
Married
Not currently married
Religious Affiliation*
Protestant
Catholic
Other, unaffiliated
Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist*
Yes
No
Gun Owner*
Yes
No
Region*
Philadelphia
Northeast
Allegheny
Southwest
Northwest
Central
Southeast
Employment
Fulltime
Other
Retired

9%
70%
36%

* p<0.01

** p<0.05

14

Marginal Frequency Report

Responses may not total 100% due to rounding.

REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you CURRENTLY
REGISTERED to vote at your present address?
100%
0%

Yes
No

RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as

something else?
38%
49%
12%
1%

Republican
Democrat
Independent
Something else

Vote_Apr. Many people will vote in the primary election for president in April; however, many other
people will not. What would you say are the chances of your voting in the April presidential primary?
Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fifty-fifty you will vote, or dont you
think that you will vote in the April presidential primary?

Feb 2016
Feb 2008
Jan 2008

Certain to
vote
76%
82%
78%

Will probably
vote
12%
13%
13%

Chances
50-50
4%
2%
4%

Dont think
will vote
7%
2%
4%

Dont
know
1%
1%
1%

Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you
say that you are in the 2016 presidential campaign?

Feb 2016
Feb 2008
Jan 2008

Very
much
69%
65%
60%

Somewhat
interested
27%
29%
35%

Not very
interested
3%
6%
5%

15

RightDir. All in all, do you think things in Pennsylvania are generally headed in the right direction, or
do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Mar 2015
Oct 2014
Sept 2014
Aug 2014
Jun 2014
Jan 2014
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Aug 2012
June 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
Oct 2011
Aug 2011
Mar 2011
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
May 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010

Headed in Right Direction

21%
21%
26%
32%
36%
39%
28%
29%
27%
30%
25%
25%
26%
28%
31%
30%
31%
38%
38%
34%
37%
27%
31%
30%
35%
32%
37%
39%

16

Off on the Wrong Track

67%
67%
62%
54%
47%
47%
61%
60%
61%
59%
62%
61%
62%
58%
56%
57%
56%
47%
49%
53%
53%
64%
59%
58%
55%
58%
50%
53%

Dont know
12%
12%
12%
13%
17%
15%
11%
11%
13%
11%
13%
13%
12%
13%
13%
13%
13%
15%
13%
13%
10%
9%
10%
12%
10%
10%
13%
8%

MIP_PA. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT problem facing PENNSYLVANIA TODAY?
(512 registered voters)
May
2013*
16%
17%
7%

Aug Oct Jan Jun Aug Sept Oct Mar Jun Aug
2013* 2013* 2014* 2014* 2014* 2014* 2014* 2015* 2015* 2015*
16% 17% 11% 15% 14% 13% 14% 16% 17% 22%
23% 21% 19% 23% 29% 30% 25% 19% 18% 21%
5% 8% 11% 9% 10% 11% 9% 17% 12% 12%

Oct
2015
39%
16%
9%

Jan
2016
38%
18%
9%

11% 21% 17% 26% 21% 16% 16% 20% 15% 18% 15% 12%

8%

18%
3%
4%

7%
3%
3%

5%
2%
4%

5%
1%
2%

5%
1%
5%

3%
2%
5%

4%
1%
3%

5%
2%
5%

6%
3%
3%

7%
2%
6%

4%
3%
5%

4%
2%
2%

4%
3%
2%

2%

3%

4%

3%

5%

3%

2%

2%

4%

5%

3%

2%

2%

3%
1%
1%
1%
0%
3%
1%
1%
0%
1%

6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
1%

8%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%

4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%

3%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%

2%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%

2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
4%
1%
0%
1%
2%

2%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%

4%
2%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%

1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
6%
0%
1%
0%
0%

1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%

2%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%

2%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%
8%

1%
5%

3%
7%

2%
8%

2%
7%

4%
8%

3%
6%

2%
8%

2%
5%

3%
0%

2%
6%

3%
6%

4%
8%

Feb
2016
47% Government, politicians
12% Education, school
10% Taxes
Unemployment, personal
9%
finances
4% Economy, finances
2% Crime, drugs, violence, guns
2% Energy issues, gas prices
Roads, infrastructure,
1%
transportation
1% Healthcare, insurance
1% Values, morals
1% Retaining, attracting businesses
1% Environment
1% Immigration
0% Senior issues, social security
0% Civil liberties
0% Social issues
0% Foreign policy, terrorism, war
0% Welfare
Personal illness, health
0%
problems, family issues
4% Other
5% Don't know

*Question asked of registered respondents only

17

MIP_YF. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing YOU and YOUR FAMILY
TODAY?
Sep
2010
21%
8%
32%
11%
4%
4%
3%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
2%
1%
0%
2%
1%
6%

Oct
2010
27%
11%
22%
10%
2%
4%
5%
2%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
7%
2%
5%

Feb
2016
20%
13%
11%
10%
8%
7%
6%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11%
4%
4%

Personal finances, unemployment

Taxes
Economy (in general)
Health care, insurance
Education, schools
Government, politicians
Senior issues, social security
Personal illness, health problems
Crime, drugs, violence, guns
Environment
Foreign policy, terrorism, war
Gasoline, utility prices
Values, morals
Housing, real estate
Social issues
Civil liberties
Personal family issues
Nothing
Other
Dont know

Gov. Do you think that the problems facing you and your family can be solved with the help of the
government, or are these problems beyond what you think the government can do? (815
respondents who reported a problem)

Feb 2016
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Aug 2008

With the help of

government
64%
63%
53%
59%
69%

Beyond what the

government can do
29%
28%
36%
33%
25%

18

Dont
know
8%
9%
12%
9%
6%

IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of
[FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or havent you heard enough about [FILL name] to
have an opinion? (rotated)

TOM WOLF
Feb 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Mar 2015
Oct 2014
Sept 2014
Aug 2014
Jun 2014
BARACK OBAMA
Feb 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Mar 2015
Jan 2014
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Feb 2013
Oct 2012
Sep 2012
Aug 2012
June 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
Mar 2011
May 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010
Oct 2009
Aug 2009
Jun 2009
Feb 2009
Oct 2008
Sep 2008
Aug 2008

Strongly
favorable

Somewhat
favorable

Somewhat
unfavorable

Strongly
unfavorable

Undecided

Dont
know

14%
15%
22%
21%
22%
20%
19%
18%
15%

25%
23%
21%
23%
18%
20%
21%
19%
20%

16%
13%
9%
10%
11%
7%
9%
7%
5%

27%
20%
17%
17%
16%
18%
13%
10%
7%

9%
16%
18%
19%
22%
18%
18%
22%
20%

9%
13%
13%
11%
11%
16%
21%
24%
32%

27%
28%
23%
25%
25%
21%
27%
22%
32%
31%
36%
35%
25%
26%
23%
25%
17%
26%
25%
27%
23%
29%
29%
39%
38%
38%
31%
25%

23%
19%
19%
18%
16%
21%
23%
19%
20%
18%
14%
15%
21%
21%
22%
20%
24%
18%
17%
22%
21%
16%
26%
17%
18%
15%
18%
18%

9%
7%
8%
10%
7%
10%
7%
9%
7%
9%
7%
6%
8%
11%
12%
12%
11%
12%
13%
10%
11%
12%
9%
6%
8%
8%
9%
7%

38%
41%
44%
41%
44%
38%
37%
41%
36%
35%
38%
36%
37%
33%
35%
32%
33%
34%
33%
29%
33%
27%
28%
21%
15%
25%
21%
22%

3%
6%
5%
5%
7%
8%
5%
10%
4%
6%
6%
7%
7%
9%
8%
9%
14%
10%
11%
11%
10%
13%
7%
14%
17%
12%
17%
23%

0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
2%
0%
1%
1%
2%
3%
1%
3%
4%
3%
3%
5%

19

PAT TOOMEY
Feb 2016
Jun 2015
Mar 2015
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Feb 2013
Mar 2011
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
May 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010
Oct 2009
Aug 2009
Donald Trump
Feb 2016
Marco Rubio
Feb 2016
Ted Cruz
Feb 2016
Hillary Clinton
Feb 2016
Feb 2014
Bernie Sanders
Feb 2016

Strongly
favorable

Somewhat
favorable

Somewhat
unfavorable

Strongly
unfavorable

Undecided

Dont
know

9%
11%
9%
8%
7%
12%
11%
6%
15%
12%
11%
6%
8%
6%
6%
5%
7%

20%
23%
21%
19%
19%
23%
15%
17%
15%
13%
14%
10%
10%
10%
9%
11%
11%

12%
7%
11%
11%
10%
11%
8%
7%
10%
7%
8%
4%
5%
2%
4%
5%
4%

21%
15%
12%
16%
10%
11%
12%
6%
16%
9%
12%
5%
5%
5%
3%
5%
6%

12%
17%
18%
13%
19%
15%
16%
22%
16%
17%
19%
15%
13%
15%
13%
10%
9%

27%
28%
29%
34%
36%
28%
37%
42%
28%
43%
36%
60%
59%
62%
65%
64%
63%

12%

15%

11%

51%

10%

1%

10%

27%

17%

27%

10%

10%

8%

17%

13%

44%

10%

8%

19%
53%

20%
27%

12%
3%

44%
6%

5%
9%

1%
2%

15%

27%

11%

31%

9%

6%

20

DemPrim. If the 2016 Democratic primary election for U.S. SENATOR were being held today and
the candidates included (rotated) John Fetterman, Katie McGinty and Joe Sestak, would you vote for
John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, Joe Sestak, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you
would vote? (486 registered Democrats)
Joe Sestak
Katie McGinty
John Fetterman
Other Candidate
Dont know

Feb 2016
21%
12%
8%
4%
56%

Jan 2016
17%
13%
6%
4%
61%

Oct 2015
15%
13%
3%
4%
65%

Aug 2015
16%
13%
-5%
66%

CertDemSen. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill] in the election, or are you still
making up your mind? (191 registered respondents with vote choice)
53%
46%
1%

Certain to vote
Still making up mind
Do not know

LeanDemSen. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, or Joe
Sestak? (260 registered undecided respondents)
8%
9%
2%
81%

Joe Sestak
Katie McGinty
John Fetterman
Do not know

DemPresPrim. If the Democratic primary election for president was being held today and the
candidates included (rotated) Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders, would you vote for Hillary Clinton,
Bernie Sanders, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? (486 registered
Democrats)
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Other Candidate
Dont know

Feb 2016
48%
27%
7%
18%

Jan 2016
46%
29%
7%
16%

Oct 2015
52%
18%
12%
17%

CertDem. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill] in the election, or are you still making
up your mind? (359 registered Democratic respondents with vote choice)
73%
27%
1%

Certain to vote
Still making up mind
Do not know

LeanDem. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? (87
registered Democratic undecided respondents)
33%
25%
42%

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Do not know

21

RepPresPrim. If the Republican primary election for president was being held today would you vote
for (rotated) Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, or aren't
you sure how you would vote? (371 registered Republicans)
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Dont know

Feb 2016 Jan 2016 Oct 2015

22%
24%
23%
16%
11%
13%
15%
3%
6%
12%
14%
4%
6%
5%
22%
4%
5%
3%
25%
26%
20%

Lean_Sen. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Ted
Cruz, Marco Rubio, or John Kasich? (93 registered Republican undecided respondents)
22%
15%
11%
10%
6%
4%
32%

Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Do not know

22

PresIss. What issue will matter most to you as you think about choosing a [Republican/Democratic/
candidate for president?
275
371
Registered Registered
Republicans Republicans
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
10%
22%
Personal characteristic of candidate
26%
19%
Terrorism, war, foreign policy
14%
10%
Unemployment, economy, finances
9%
7%
Government, politicians
6%
7%
Immigration, illegal immigrants
2%
5%
Civil liberties
8%
4%
Values and morality
2%
4%
Candidate who will put country back on right track, in general
3%
3%
Unemployment, personal finances
2%
3%
Healthcare, insurance
1%
3%
Bipartisanship
2%
2%
Taxes
1%
1%
Crime, drugs, violence, guns
1%
1%
Elder issues, social security
1%
1%
Justice system, lawyers
1%
0%
Education, schools
1%
0%
Environment
0%
0%
Social Issues
1%
0%
Retaining, attracting business
0%
0%
Racism
4%
3%
Other
8%
5%
Do not know

486
Registered
Democrats
Feb 2016
28%
10%
10%
3%
1%
2%
0%
1%
7%
5%
6%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
1%
1%
0%
1%
5%
10%

351
Registered
Democrats
Jan 2016
7%
15%
17%
8%
0%
2%
2%
2%
6%
12%
3%
3%
3%
3%
1%
4%
2%
0%
0%
0%
4%
8%

Rate_Gov. How would you rate the way that Tom Wolf is handling his job as Governor? Would you
say he is doing an
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Mar 2015

Excellent job
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
7%

Good job
27%
28%
30%
32%
31%
31%

Only a fair job

32%
36%
37%
34%
34%
29%

23

Poor job
29%
26%
21%
17%
16%
14%

Dont know
7%
6%
6%
10%
13%
19%

RateSenT. How would you rate the way that Pat Toomey is handling his job as U.S. SENATOR?
Would you say he is doing an
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Mar 2015
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Oct 2011
Aug 2011
Mar 2011

Excellent job
3%
4%
4%
6%
5%
3%
4%
4%
4%
3%
5%
3%

Good job
23%
29%
31%
34%
29%
28%
18%
20%
27%
29%
24%
25%

Only a fair job

31%
34%
37%
32%
33%
35%
34%
42%
39%
40%
37%
36%

24

Poor job
17%
17%
13%
11%
14%
13%
19%
9%
10%
11%
14%
10%

Dont know
27%
18%
15%
18%
20%
21%
25%
26%
21%
18%
20%
27%

RatePres. How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as President?
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Mar 2015
Oct 2014
Sept 2014
Aug 2014
Jun 2014
Jan 2014
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Feb 2013
Oct 2012
Sep 2012
Aug 2012
June 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
Oct 2011
Aug 2011
Mar 2011
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
May 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010
Oct 2009
Aug 2009
Jun 2009
Mar 2009
Feb 2009

Excellent job
13%
13%
14%
12%
12%
11%
8%
6%
7%
7%
6%
11%
8%
14%
14%
17%
18%
12%
13%
11%
9%
9%
9%
7%
8%
10%
9%
14%
12%
12%
11%
17%
14%
20%
23%
25%

Good job
29%
28%
26%
26%
25%
24%
24%
25%
27%
27%
24%
28%
26%
30%
28%
29%
29%
31%
29%
26%
31%
28%
25%
28%
24%
26%
28%
24%
28%
29%
27%
23%
33%
35%
37%
30%

Only a fair job

18%
20%
18%
16%
20%
21%
27%
25%
28%
22%
31%
21%
23%
22%
23%
20%
19%
23%
30%
29%
29%
31%
33%
30%
31%
33%
28%
32%
27%
32%
32%
31%
29%
25%
22%
23%

25

Poor job
39%
39%
42%
45%
43%
43%
41%
43%
37%
42%
37%
39%
42%
33%
34%
33%
33%
33%
28%
35%
30%
32%
33%
34%
36%
30%
35%
29%
32%
27%
29%
28%
24%
19%
14%
13%

Dont know
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
4%
9%

Kane1 The Montgomery County District Attorney has filed criminal charges against Attorney General
Kathleen Kane for obstruction, conspiracy, perjury and abuse of office. While the case against her
goes through the criminal justice system, do you think that Kathleen Kane should resign as Attorney
General or do you think she should continue to serve as Attorney General?
Aug 2015
46%
43%
11%

Oct 2015
51%
36%
13%

Feb 2016
58%
29%
12%

Resign
Continue to serve
Dont know

Kane2 If Kathleen Kane does not resign, do you think the state legislature should vote to impeach
and remove her from office? (562 voters who feel Kane should resign)
Aug 2015
52%
23%
25%

Oct 2015
57%
18%
25%

Feb 2016
58%
19%
24%

Yes
No
Dont know

IntGovRole. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements
(rotated)
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Dont
Agree
Agree
Disagree Disagree know

Feb 2016
The government must first and foremost protect all people
from harm.
When the government makes laws, the number one
principle should be ensuring that everyone is treated fairly.
Loyalty to ones group is more important than ones
individual concerns.
When the government makes laws, those laws should
always respect the traditions and heritage of the country.
The government should try to help people live virtuously
and avoid sin.

64%

24%

7%

4%

1%

73%

18%

4%

4%

1%

8%

16%

28%

39%

9%

44%

28%

15%

10%

3%

14%

14%

18%

50%

4%

GovRole2. Do you believe the actions of the United States government should mostly be aimed at
maintaining and representing a common constitution and legal order or do you believe the actions of
the United States government should be mostly aimed at maintaining and representing a common
heritage, religion, and tradition?
81%
13%
7%

Constitution and legal order

Heritage, religion, and tradition
Dont know

26

DEMO I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only.
CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?)
26%
23%
12%
11%
10%
9%
9%

Central
Southeast
Northeast
Southwest
Philadelphia
Allegheny
Northwest

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?

2%
7%
10%
14%
26%
42%

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and older

EDUC. What was the highest grade level of schooling you have completed?
1%
21%
14%
12%
24%
28%

Non high school graduate

High school graduate or GED
Some college
Associates degree or technical degree
Bachelors degree
Post graduate degree

MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status

widower?
70%
13%
10%
7%
1%

are you single, married, separated, divorced, or a

Married
Single, Never Married
Widow or widower
Divorced
Separated

27

IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?

Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Oct 2014
Sept 2014
Aug 2014
Jun 2014
Jan 2014
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Feb 2013
Oct 2012
Sep 2012
Aug 2012
June 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2011
Oct 2011
Aug 2011
Mar 2011
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
May 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010

Liberal
27%
22%
22%
21%
23%
23%
22%
20%
26%
24%
24%
22%
24%
26%
22%
26%
21%
25%
17%
21%
20%
24%
16%
16%
15%
19%
19%
17%
21%
19%

Moderate
33%
39%
38%
36%
35%
37%
36%
39%
36%
43%
39%
42%
39%
36%
39%
34%
40%
34%
39%
39%
39%
32%
33%
37%
34%
32%
32%
35%
33%
30%

PARTY. Regardless of how you are registered

a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
21%
12%
9%
6%
15%
11%
27%
1%

Dont know
3%
4%
4%
3%
4%
3%
5%
5%
5%
5%
6%
3%
6%
3%
5%
5%
4%
5%
4%
4%
8%
7%
10%
8%
10%
9%
9%
8%
9%
9%

in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as

Strong Republican
Republican
Lean Republican
Independent
Lean Democrat
Democrat
Strong Democrat
Dont know

GUN. Are you a gun owner?

32%
67%
1%

Conservative
37%
36%
37%
40%
39%
36%
38%
36%
34%
28%
31%
33%
31%
35%
35%
35%
36%
36%
40%
36%
33%
37%
41%
39%
40%
40%
40%
40%
37%
42%

Yes
No
Dont know

28

GUN2. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose creating more laws that regulate gun ownership?
Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Oct 2015
Aug 2015
Jun 2015
Oct 2014
Sept 2014
Aug 2014
Jun 2014
Jan 2014
Oct 2013
Aug 2013
May 2013
Feb 2013*
Aug 2007
Jun 2007
Feb 2007
Oct 2006*
Sep 2006*
Aug 2006*
May 2006*
Feb 2006
Nov 2005
Sep 2005
Jun 2005
Oct 2004*
Sep 2004*
Aug 2004*
Mar 2004*
Oct 2002*
Sep 2002*
Jun 2002*
Oct 2001*
Apr 2001*
Oct 2000*
Feb 2000*

40%
40%
43%
40%
38%
42%
39%
39%
43%
42%
46%
39%
43%
43%
40%
39%
39%
35%
34%
37%
37%
35%
38%
39%
39%
33%
38%
35%
42%
34%
28%
40%
33%
41%
37%
41%

16%
15%
13%
14%
13%
12%
14%
14%
12%
12%
16%
12%
14%
15%
20%
15%
17%
16%
15%
15%
14%
19%
20%
16%
17%
19%
19%
20%
17%
18%
20%
14%
22%
18%
18%
19%

13%
13%
10%
10%
12%
8%
10%
10%
9%
9%
9%
13%
11%
10%
14%
12%
15%
15%
17%
14%
16%
17%
14%
13%
16%
19%
15%
15%
14%
15%
14%
11%
15%
14%
15%
11%

29%
29%
31%
32%
33%
37%
32%
31%
31%
32%
24%
33%
30%
28%
23%
31%
26%
26%
28%
27%
27%
22%
20%
25%
23%
23%
20%
23%
21%
26%
29%
28%
24%
22%
22%
24%

Dont
know
3%
3%
4%
5%
5%
2%
5%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
8%
6%
7%
6%
7%
8%
8%
6%
7%
8%
7%
7%
7%
9%
7%
6%
6%
9%
5%

*Question asked of registered respondents only

BG1. Do you favor or oppose a federal law requiring background checks on all potential gun buyers,
including those who purchase guns at gun shows or online?
Jan 2016 Feb 2016
76%
78%
12%
13%
4%
2%
7%
6%
2%
1%

Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Dont know

29

BG2. Do you favor or oppose efforts to include more information about citizens mental health into
the background check system?
Jan 2016 Feb 2016
68%
68%
17%
19%
5%
5%
5%
4%
5%
3%

Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Dont know

Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not?

2%
98%
1%

Yes
No
Dont know

RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?
92%
8%

White
Non-white

REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with
any religion?
39%
31%
12%
19%

Protestant
Catholic
Some other religion
Not affiliated with any religion

BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not?

23%
74%
3%

Yes
No
Dont know

WORK. Are you currently working fulltime, part-time, going to school, keeping house or something
else?
41%
37%
13%
4%
3%
1%
1%

Full-time
Retired
Part-time
Something else
Disabled
Going to school
Unemployed

30

INCOME. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or
below $50,000 per year?
9%
7%
14%
17%
18%
29%
6%

Under $25,000
$25-$35,000
$35-50,000
$50-75,000
$75-100,000
Over $100,000
Dont know

DONE. Sex of respondent:

48%
52%

Male
Female

31