2016 Global Farming Equipment Market Fundamentals Jan 2016

John Deere
Committed to Those
Linked to the Land
Market Fundamentals
Deere & Company
December 2015 / January 2016
Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures

This presentation includes forward-looking comments subject to important risks
and uncertainties. It may also contain financial measures that are not in
conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States
of America (GAAP).
Refer to Deeres reports filed on Forms 8-K (current), 10-Q (quarterly), and
10-K (annual) for information on factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from information in this presentation and for information reconciling
financial measures to GAAP. Past performance may not be representative of
future results.
Guidance noted in the following slides was effective as of the companys most
recent earnings release and conference call (25 November 2015). Nothing in this
presentation should be construed as reaffirming or disaffirming such guidance.
This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy any of
Deeres securities.
| Deere & Company
Table of Contents
Slide
Ag Fundamentals U.S.
Construction & Forestry Fundamentals U.S.
11
Other Regions
14
| Deere & Company
Ag Fundamentals
United States
U.S. Farm Cash Receipts

$500
$450
$400
$350
$300
$ Billions
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Crops
Livestock
Source: 2000 2014: USDA 25 August 2015

2015F 2016F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015
| Deere & Company
Government Payments
U.S. Farm Balance Sheet Strong

$3,500
30%
28%
$3,000
26%
$2,500
24%
22%
$2,000
$ Billions
20%
$1,500
18%
16%
$1,000
14%
$500
12%
$0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
10%
Farm Debt
Source:
Farm Equity
Debt to Equity Ratio (%)
1972 2014: USDA 24 November 2015

2015F 2016F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015
| Deere & Company
Debt to Asset Ratio (%)
World Farm Fundamentals

Global Stocks-to-Use Ratios
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
Cotton
60%
50%
Wheat
40%
30%
Corn
20%
Soybeans
10%
0%
1994
1997
2000
Source: USDA 10 November 2015
| Deere & Company
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015P
Global Corn Supply and Demand

1,000
Million Metric Tons
800
600
400
200
Production
Source: USDA 10 November 2015
| Deere & Company
Consumption
15/16
14/15
13/14
12/13
11/12
10/11
09/10
08/09
07/08
06/07
05/06
04/05
03/04
02/03
01/02
00/01
99/00
98/99
97/98
96/97
95/96
94/95
93/94
92/93
91/92
2,600
2,400
Consumption
2,200
2,000
1,800
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2003
2004
2,400
Consumption less biofuel use
2,200
2,000
1,800
| Deere & Company
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1,600
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
2,600
1995
Million Metric Tons
1996
1,600
1995
Million Metric Tons
Grain Demand With and Without Biofuel Use
Agricultural Growth Energy

U.S. Ethanol
U.S. Corn Used In Ethanol
6,000
5,000
Bushels (millions)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
99/00
01/02
03/04
Source: Informa November 2015
10 | Deere & Company
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
15/16F
Construction & Forestry

Fundamentals
United States
U.S. Housing Starts

Housing Starts
2.500
(Millions of Units)
2.250
2.000
1.750
1.500
1.250
1.000
0.750
0.500
0.250
Multi-Family Housing Starts

Single-Family Housing Starts
0.000
1966
Source:
1971
1976
1981
1986
1962 2014: U.S. Census Bureau October 2015

2015F-2016F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016F
U.S. Construction Spending

U.S. Construction Spending
(Billions, 2009 Chained $s)
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
Billions, 2009 Chained $s
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997
Source:
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
-100%
-110%
-120%
-130%
-140%
-150%
-160%
% Total Construction Spend
2,300
Residential Investment in Structures

Nonresidential Investment in Structures
Government Investment in Structures
Government Infrastructure Investment
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1997 2014: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis October 2015

2015F-2016F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016F
Other Regions
EU 28
Macroeconomic Data
GDP Composition
2014
2015F
2016F
GDP Growth (%)
1.4%
1.8%
1.9%
Inflation (%)
0.6%
0.1%
1.1%
10.5%
9.8%
9.2%
Unemployment (%)
25%
2%
73%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2014 est.
Major Economies GDP Growth (%)

4.0
Labor Composition
3.0
2014
2.0
2015F
1.0
2016F
0.0
23%
5%
-1.0
72%
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Spain
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Source: IHS Global Insight November 2015
EU 28
Ag Economic Data
$120
Crop Value of Production
Utilized agricultural area ~ 190 million

hectares
Arable land ~ 110 million hectares
Growth potential for Western Ag
equipment industry in Central & Eastern
Europe
Ongoing farm & Ag land consolidation
and yield improvements
Average farm size ~ 14 hectares
Number of farms ~ 12 million
US$ Billions
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Crops included: Wheat, Barley, Corn, Rapeseed,
Sunflower Seed, Soybeans, Sugar Beet, Cotton and Rice
Share of the World Market

Total Grains
Wheat
Barley
Pork Meat
Cow Milk
Production
Net Exports
16%
21%
42%
21%
30%
8%
18%
29%
32%
40%
Source: USDA, November 2015; average 2013-2015

(Total Grains: excl. Rice; Cow Milk: Net Exports of Cheese)
Source: FAO, Eurostat Agricultural Census 2010
Economic Update
EU 28 Fiscal 2016
Economic activity gradually improving, however event risks

remain
Arable income remains under pressure, below the long-term
average
Continued weakness in dairy sector
Beef prices remain solid, pork prices at low levels
Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015
EU 28
Government Support of Agriculture

Delayed policy implementation phase: Uncertainty around investment subsidies in new
member states (Central & Eastern EU) until 2016, but short-term 2015 programs available
Common Agricultural Policy budget 2014-2020 frozen at 2007-2013 nominal levels
(-14% in real terms)
Portion of direct payments (30%) tied to environmentally-friendly farming practices
Limited effects of direct payments redistribution in favor of new member states (Central & Eastern EU)
In nominal terms & over the full time period, Pillar I ~ constant but bigger cuts in Pillar II
EUR bn (nominal prices)
70
2007-2013
2014-2020
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pillar I (Direct Payments + Market Expenditures)
Source: EU Commission, Agra Europe
Pillar II (Rural Development)
Brazil
Macroeconomic Data
GDP Composition
2014
2015F
2016F
Interest rate (%)
10.9%
13.4%
14.3%
CPI Inflation (%)
6.3%
8.9%
6.6%
Unemployment (%)
6.8%
8.2%
9.7%
25%
6%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography

and Statistics (IBGE), 2014
GDP Growth (%)

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
69%
Labor Composition
2.7
1.8
0.2
23%
-2.1
-3.2
2012
2013
2014
2015F
17%
60%
2016F
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography

and Statistics (IBGE), 2012
Brazil
Ag Economic Data
Crop Value of Agricultural Production

$120
$100
Arable land & permanent crop ~ 83 million

hectares
~ 5% CAGR in industry equipment sales
through the end of the decade2
US$ Billions
Agricultural area ~ 279 million hectares1
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2016F
Crops included: Key Grains, Ethanol and Sugar

Includes pasture, excludes double crop

Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015 (volume only)
Source: FAO, Conab, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
1
2
Soybean
Corn
Sugar
Beef
Chicken
Production
Net Exports
30%
8%
21%
16%
14%
41%
19%
45%
20%
34%
Source: IHS Global Insight, 2015; average 2013-2014
Brazil
Government Support for Agriculture

Ag budget* for the 2015/2016 season is R$187.7 billion; 20% higher than last seasons budget.
Moderfrota/PSI-Rural budget increased from R$8.57 billion to R$10.0 billion.
Key Government programs to support equipment purchase

Annual
Interest
Grace Period
Where
Rate
(Max)
Term
(Years)
(Years)
Maturity
Brazil
5.5%
10
Perennial
Pr-Trator: 50-120 HP Tractors
SP
0.0%
Perennial
Trator Solidrio: 55-75 HP Tractors
PR
~ 2.0%
10
Perennial
Brazil
7.0%-9.5%2
10
Nov15
Brazil
7.5%-9.0%2
1.5
Programs
Mais Alimentos: 50-78 HP Tractors
Finame PSI-BK
(new tractors and combines)
Moderfrota (new and used tractors and combines)
83
Exclusively qualified products. Minimum of 60% local content (weight and value)
Depending on Farm Size: lower rate if annual revenues is up to 90 million reais and higher rate when annual revenue exceeds R$90 million reais.
4 years if used equipment.
* Includes budget for financing input costs, investments and production trade. Season 15/16 = July 2015 to June 2016
Jun16
(Suspended
Sep-Nov15)
CIS
Macroeconomic Data
GDP Composition (Russia)
2014
2015F
2016F
GDP Growth (%)
0.9%
-3.0%
0.0%
Inflation (%)
8.1%
15.7%
10.9%
Unemployment (%)
4.5%
4.6%
5.4%
36%
60%
4%
Agriculture
Major Economies GDP Growth (%)
Industry
Services
6.0
Labor Composition (Russia)
3.0
0.0
2014
-3.0
2015F
-6.0
2016F
-9.0
28%
10%
-12.0
Russia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
62%
Belarus
Agriculture
Industry
Services
CIS
Ag Economic Data
$80

hectares
Significant opportunities exist to improve
yield rates in all major crops1
Land under cultivation (sown crops)
expected to remain nearly flat over the
next decade
Western-style equipment used on
<25% of farm land
Number of farms ~ 0.5 million
Deere & Company Forecast as of 25 November 2015

Source: FAO, CIS farm statistics 2006-2007 (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan)
1
US$ Billions
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Crops included: Wheat, Barley, Corn, Sunflower Seed,
Rapeseed, Soybeans, Sugar Beet

Total Grains
Wheat
Barley
Corn
Sunflower
Production
Net Exports
10%
15%
22%
4%
53%
19%
21%
30%
17%
26%
Source: USDA, November 2015; average 2013-2015

(Total Grains: excl. Rice)
CIS

Wheat export restrictions introduced in February 2015 continue to put pressure on farm
margins in Russia
The fixed export duty was replaced by a floating tax regime at the end of May 2015
This change created additional uncertainty for Russian Ag operations (setting up to 20% of the wheat
margin at risk, depending on the wheat export price and RUR FX rate fluctuations)
Recently, the wheat export duty threshhold was eased, and the grain intervention prices were raised
somewhat supporting the grain price outlook
Import policies continue to impact Western combine sales in Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus
Risks remain for Western competitors given the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by Western
sanctions and the Russian Agrifood import ban
Restructured Russian National Ag Program 2013 - 2020 was set to increase Ag support by
about 50% by 2020 vs. 2012 in nominal terms, but expect large annual fluctuations
Agrifood import ban announced in August 2014 is set to encourage additional state support to fulfill self-
sufficiency goals in 2015 and beyond; however, implementation and timing remain quite uncertain
Interest rate subsidies for Ag equipment largely eliminated, partly replaced with direct area payments
to Ag operations and direct subsidies to the domestic Ag equipment industry
Ag equipment localization requirements re-considered/strengthened, additional risks given the current
geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West
China
Macroeconomic Data
GDP Composition
2014
2015F
2016F
Interest rate (%)
5.9%
4.9%
3.7%
Inflation (%)
2.0%
1.4%
1.7%
Unemployment (%)
4.1%
4.1%
4.3%
46%
45%
9%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Source: IHS Global Insight, 2014 est.
GDP Growth (%)

10.0
8.0
7.7
7.7
Labor Composition
7.3
6.8
6.0
6.3
30%
4.0
34%
2.0
0.0
2012
2013
2014
2015F
36%
2016F
Agriculture
Industry
Services
China
Ag Economic Data
hectares
Arable land & permanent crops ~ 122
million hectares
Annual industry tractor sales ~ 300,000
US $ Billions
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Rural population % of total declined 15%

2003-2014
Average farm size ~ 0.47 hectares
Number of farms ~ 257.7 million in
2012
Crops Included: Corn, Wheat, Rice, Oilseeds, and Cotton


Total Grains
Wheat
Corn
Rice
Cotton
Production
Exports
20%
17%
22%
30%
26%
0.3%
0.5%
0.0%
0.8%
0.1%
Source: Global Insight November 2015, average 2013-2014
Source: FAO, IHS Global Insight, China National Bureau of Statistics
China

2014
108
15
2013
107
15
22
22
166
2012
108
15
22
21
166
2011
2010
2009
2008
15
72
2007
15
28
2006
12
2005
13
14
4
31
25
50
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture
12
141
13
128
4 103
52
Material Subsidy (basic subsidy for purchase of inputs)
Grain Direct Subsidy (for growing encouraged crops)
Seed Subsidy (for purchasing high-performing seed)
Equipment Subsidy (for purchasing encouraged equipment)
17
20
19
76
169
125
16
22
15
72
18
22
15
86
24
22
75
100
RMB (in billions)
125
150
175
200
India
Macroeconomic Data
GDP Composition
2014
2015F
2016F
10.1%
9.8%
8.3%
Inflation (%)
6.7%
4.8%
5.5%
Unemployment (%)
8.8%
8.6%
8.2%
Interest rate (%)
30%
18%
52%
Agriculture
6.0
6.9
7.3
Services
Source: IHS Global Insight, 2014 est.
GDP Growth (%)

8.0
Industry
7.3
7.5
Labor Composition
5.1
4.0
49%
20%
2.0
0.0
2012
2013
2014
2015F
31%
2016F
Agriculture
Industry
Services
India
Ag Economic Data
hectares
Annual industry tractor sales ~ 550,000
units
US $ Billions
$120
$90
$60
$30
$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Average farm size ~ 1.2 hectares
Crops included: Corn, Wheat, Rice, Oilseeds, Cotton


Total Grains
Wheat
Corn
Rice
Cotton
Production
Exports
10%
13%
2%
26%
25%
5%
2%
2%
26%
17%
Source: Global Insight October 2015, average 2013-2014
Source: FAO, Tractor Manufacturers Association of India, Indian Ministry of Agriculture
India

2014F
2014
680
2013
633
2012
610
2011
262
2005
185
438
313
240
231
195
170
143
194
1,296
237
207
197
48
151
275
917
56 809
500
1,000
1,500
Source: India Ministry of Agriculture (2005-2009), India Ministry of Finance (2010-2014F)
2,048
332
Fertilizer Subsidy
Food Subsidy (for households)
Interest Rate Subsidy (for farmers)
Irrigation Subsidy
Electricity Subsidy
Other Subsidies (mainly for seeds)
1,191
Rupees (in billions)
1,440
1,090
560
325
2006
35
638
766
2007
40
728
530
2008
54 1,514
850
623
2009
1,483
850
672
2010
1,830
1150
2,000
2,500

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John Deere

Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

Construction & Forestry Fundamentals U.S.

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

U.S. Farm Cash Receipts

Source: 2000 2014: USDA 25 August 2015

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

U.S. Farm Balance Sheet Strong

Debt to Equity Ratio (%)

1972 2014: USDA 24 November 2015

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

Debt to Asset Ratio (%)

World Farm Fundamentals

Source: USDA 10 November 2015

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

World Farm Fundamentals

Global Corn Supply and Demand

Million Metric Tons

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

World Farm Fundamentals

Consumption less biofuel use

| Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024

Million Metric Tons

Million Metric Tons

Grain Demand With and Without Biofuel Use

Agricultural Growth Energy

U.S. Corn Used In Ethanol

Source: Informa November 2015

10 | Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

Construction & Forestry

U.S. Housing Starts

Multi-Family Housing Starts

1962 2014: U.S. Census Bureau October 2015

12 | Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

U.S. Construction Spending

(Billions, 2009 Chained $s)

Billions, 2009 Chained $s

% Total Construction Spend

Residential Investment in Structures

1997 2014: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis October 2015

13 | Deere & Company

December 2015 / January 2016

GDP Growth (%)

Source: The World Factbook, 2014 est.

Major Economies GDP Growth (%)

Source: The World Factbook, 2012 est.

Source: IHS Global Insight November 2015