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Stochastic Process - SUPPLEMENTARY
Stochastic Process - SUPPLEMENTARY
Mathematical Annex 4
Stochastic Processes
In this mathematical annex we introduce linear stochastic processes in discrete time. Stochastic
processes are extremely useful tools for studying dynamic stochastic economic problems, such as
aggregate fluctuations, which combine time and randomness. As Lucas (1977) had observed,
Movements about trend in gross national product in any country can be well described by a
stochastically disturbed difference equation of very low order..
Stochastically disturbed difference equations are nothing more than difference equations that are
affected by random shocks, and are otherwise called stochastic difference equations.
To analyze them, we need an introduction to stochastic processes.
We also introduce the concept of impulse response functions (IRF) which refers to the response of a
dynamic system to exogenous shocks.
(A4.1)
(A4.2)
A stochastic process is considered stationary, when the mean t is independent of t, and the
covariance t,s only depends on t-s.
Mathematical Annex 4
The basic stochastic process, which is the building block of all the stochastic processes that we shall
analyze here, is the so called white noise process. In this process, the mean is equal to zero, the
variance is constant, and the covariance is equal to zero for t s.
Thus, the white noise process satisfies the following properties.
( t ) = 0
E ( 2t ) = 2
( t s ) = 0
st
(A4.3)
As one can see, in the white noise process there is no time dependence, as the covariances are equal
to zero for different time periods.
(A4.4)
1
t = iti
i= 0
1 L
(A4.5)
We can deduce from (A4.5) that this stochastic process has the white noise process t as its building
block. It follows that,
( yt ) =
1
E( t ) = 0,
1
E ( y 2t ) =
1
2
1 2
E (y t y ts ) =
|s|
2
2
1
(A4.6)
t, s
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Mathematical Annex 4
(A4.7)
This non stationary stochastic process is called a random walk. The first difference of a random
walk is a white noise process, as from(A4.7) it follows that,
y t = y t - y t1 = t
(A4.8)
is the first difference operator. The random walk is a special case of homogeneous non stationary
stochastic processes, which become stationary when we transform them, by taking their first
differences one or more times.
The second order linear autoregressive process (AR(2)) has the form of a second order linear
difference equation plus a white noise stochastic process, and can be depicted as,
! yt = a + byt 1 + cyt 2 + t
(A4.9)
(A4.10)
(A4.11)
where, ! 1 + 2 = b and ! 12 = c .
The conditions for (A4.11) to be stationary are analogous to the conditions for convergence in a
simple second order difference equation.
We shall distinguish among three possible cases.
Case 1: b2>-4c
Then, the roots are real and distinct, and take the form,
b + b 2 + 4c
b b 2 + 4c
! 1 =
, ! 2 =
2
2
We shall have stationarity if |1| < 1, and |2| < 1.
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Mathematical Annex 4
a
t
+
(1 1 )(1 2 ) (1 1 L)(1 2 L)
(A4.12)
Case 2: b2=-4c
In this case, we shall have two equal real roots of the form,
! 1 = 2 = =
b
2
(A4.13)
= ( 1- ) E( t ) = 0,
E ( y 2t )
= ( 1+ 2 ) 2
E (y t y ts )
= - 2
t, |s| = 1
=0
t, |s| > 1
(A4.14)
1 L
t
1 L
(A4.15)
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Mathematical Annex 4
References
Sargent T.J. (1987), Macroeconomic Theory, (2nd Edition), New York, Academic Press.
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