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DBD 2016 Stock Selection JAN 2016
DBD 2016 Stock Selection JAN 2016
DBD 2016 Stock Selection JAN 2016
05/01/2016
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This is the list of stocks with their weighting that we have selected for 2016.
We have had to allocate to a very limited number of sectors (all the analysis is on relative
strength trends!).
Indeed, we have 4 sectors in very pronounced downtrends since 2011 or before:
Banks, Miners, Energy and Utilities. We cannot select those sectors for our portfolio
yet, though their relative strengths may change in 2016. We made a small exception for
Utilities. English Utilities are in strong uptrends, they differ from French and German ones
which are dragging the sector down.
On the other hand, we have 3 sectors that still are in solid relative strength
uptrends: Food & Beverage, Healthcare, Personal Consumer Goods. We have
roughly doubled the weights of each of those sectors in the Stoxx 600 in our portfolio.
They represent almost 60% of all the portfolio.
Autos, Insurance, Travel and Leisure have been outperforming for several years. Yet,
they have reached very strong resistances. They are extremely overbought. We doubt
they will be able to outperform the Stoxx 600 in the coming months. They should even
underperform for a while -though may be not the whole of 2016, this is uncertain.
We decided not to represent any of those sectors in our portfolio.
In 2014, we had said that TMTs were back, and this was one of our major sectoral call.
We still think that compartment can do better than the Stoxx 600 It may not be a regular
out performance, but other the year, we do not see a major risk of underunderperformance. The long term trend we had identified in 2014 is not over yet. Here
too, we doubled the weight of the sectors in the Stoxx 600.
Chemicals and Industrials are in sideways consolidations. They may reverse to the
downside, or resume to the upside. Logically, if the US economy does run into the
recession cycles promise us, and if Europe follows as usually happens, those two sectors
should suffer. But so far, the signals are not there yet. We decided to represent them with
their normal weight.
We did not represent smaller sectors as Financial Services, Construction, Real Estate
and Retail.
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